The Reporter January 2011 VOL. 43, ISSUE 1
Countries with Rapidly Growing Populations:
Running the Risk of Civil Conflict
A PUBLICATION OF
POPULATION CONNECTION
from the president
ant a recipe for political
centuries
instability
with
Between 1990 and 1994 the total cod
Malthusian misery? Take
population plummeted by more than 99
Some consistently deny links between
one arid African nation. Stir in rapid
percent. Some European ships began
population growth and human calami-
population growth. Remove a vital
venturing all the way to the Indian
ties predicted by Malthus. Perhaps it’s
source of food and income. Add pirates.
Ocean.
because this misery isn’t being visited
W
topped
Simmer until boiling.
of
sustainable
harvests.
international terror and a nightmare worthy of Thomas Malthus.
As is so often the case, the burden
on anyone they know. As the Anglican
Somalia is the case in point. Four out
has fallen heaviest on the have-nots. A
cleric and scholar pointed out, “The his-
of ten people survive on less than one
UN report concluded that illegal fishing
tories of mankind are histories only of
dollar a day. The total fertility rate is the
in Somali waters by foreign trawlers
the higher classes.”
fifth highest on earth, at 6.5 children
costs that impoverished African nation
There are no quick, simple solutions
per woman—only 1 percent of whom
some $300 million annually. A modest
for places like Somalia, where popula-
use modern contraception. The average
sum perhaps by Western standards, but
tion is projected to double within 30
th
Somali does not live to celebrate a 50
huge for Somalia, where the per capita
years. Universal access to affordable
birthday.
annual GDP hovers around $600.
contraception would help, though. So,
Three out of every ten Somalis have
Some experts project the global
too, would “a decent respect to the
been displaced from their homes due
destruction of all ocean fishing within
opinions of mankind” (in Jefferson’s
to conflict, drought, and other natural
40 years as human population contin-
words). Those who have so much
and man-made disasters. One out of
ues to soar.
should refrain from exploiting Somalia
five requires international food aid to
While there are international agree-
and other poor nations. Instead, we
ments governing that set limits on fish-
should strive to be helpful for reasons
While crops thrive on less than 2 per-
ing, they are difficult to enforce, espe-
both ethical and practical in today’s
cent of its land, Somalia does have the
cially for a nation like Somalia. After a
hyper-connected world.
longest coastline in Africa. Yet its fish-
nearly 20-year hiatus, Somalia reestab-
ing industry has vanished. Blame the
lished its navy in 2009, although it is
insatiable appetites of wealthy nations
hampered by a lack of ships.
survive.
and their mega-trawlers, which vacu-
Until recently, fishing was a sustain-
um fish out of the ocean to feed their
able way of life for Somalis. The
own populations.
upsurge in piracy seems clearly linked to
The Somali national government col-
the exploitation and decimation of their
lapsed in 1991. This coincided with
fishing grounds. Somalia lingers on the
another collapse. Cod fishing off
very edge of lawlessness. Its land may
Newfoundland was banned after four
not be arable, but it is fertile ground for
John Seager john@popconnect.org
Need a speaker? We’re always on the lookout for opportunities to spread the message. John Seager, President of Population Connection, and other key staff are available to make the population connection to the environment, women’s rights, social justice, and other global issues. If your environmental organization, school, university, religious group, or other gathering could use a lively presentation, just email Natalie Widel at nwidel@popconnect.org or call her at 1-800-767-1956 ext. 7725.
Volume 43, Issue 1 January 2011 Cover: Full caption on page 4 Photo: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images
Pg. 5 The ZPG Society: Julian and Katharine Donahue By Julian P. Donahue
Pg. 8 Book Review: Population and Development: The Demographic Transition
Pg. 10 Demographic Security: Improving the Lot of the ‘Typical Human’ in 2050
By Marian Starkey
By Jack A. Goldstone, PhD
D E PA RT M E N T S
COLUMNS
2
PopPourri
18 Washington View
4
In the News
20 Field & Outreach
6
Editor’s Note
22 Pop. Ed.
7
Letters
24 Remark
Printed on recycled paper
2
The Reporter — January 2011
www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
3
In the News Volume 43, Issue 1 January 2011 Editor and Designer Marian Starkey Contributors Julian Donahue, Jack Goldstone, Rebecca Harrington, Stacie Murphy, John Seager, Marian Starkey, Pamela Wasserman Population Connection Overpopulation threatens the quality of life for people everywhere. Population Connection is the national grassroots population organization that educates young people and advocates progressive action to stabilize world population at a level that can be sustained by Earth’s resources. The Reporter (ISSN 0199-0071) Population Connection 2120 L Street, NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20037 Phone: 202-332-2200 Toll Free: 800-767-1956 Fax: 202-332-2302 Email: info@popconnect.org Website: www.popconnect.org
Since a last-minute budget deal was negoMontana who qualify for the state’s low-
blocked the bill for 14 years, but President
income health insurance program for minors
Aquino is unwavering in his belief that child-
(Healthy Montana Kids) have been prohibit-
bearing decisions should be left up to parents
ed from obtaining birth control for the pur-
and that the Church should not interfere.
pose of preventing pregnancy. The plan con-
Aquino is a practicing Catholic.
tinues to cover birth control for treating acne and regulating the menstrual cycle. Planned Parenthood of Montana is suing tion to prevent pregnancy, calling it a violation of privacy and equal protection rights. The hearing is set for May.
The Reporter — January 2011
Filipinos backed the bill, despite 80 percent of the population identifying as Catholic.
New Zealand Runs Out of Contraceptive Implant New Zealand ran out of Jadelle, a contra-
Last year, Healthy Montana Kids spent
ceptive implant from Finland, just two
$720,000 to cover the pregnancies and
months after the government offered subsi-
deliveries of 43 teen mothers.
dies that reduced the cost from $300 to $3. The implant lasts for up to five years and is
New Contraceptive Gel Scientists have developed a contraceptive
the gel does not have the same side effects as
Back Cover: Senior couple. Neringafoto, Dreamstime.com
A poll last year showed that 6 in 10
the state for its refusal to provide contracep-
President and CEO John Seager
Pg. 8-9 Huge Crowd. Kirsty Pargeter, Dreamstime.com
sidized contraceptives. The Catholic Church has successfully
gel that is applied topically, to a woman’s
Pg. 2-3 Camouflage wallpaper. Sybille Yates, Dreamstime.com
be given to the individual states, many of which would provide poor couples with sub-
tiated in the 2009 legislature, girls in
Board Chair Dianne Dillon-Ridgley
Cover: Palestinian youths run for cover as Israeli troops shoot across the border fence east of Gaza City after the removal of the body of a militant killed by Israeli gunfire at the spot on April 16, 2010. Military sources in Israel confirmed that a Palestinian gunman was killed, adding that troops had spotted a gunman trying to place an explosive device along the fence between the Palestinian enclave and Israel. The incident is the second of its kind in a week.
4
Planned Parenthood Sues the State of Montana
99.9 percent effective at preventing pregnancy. More than 200 women are now on the waiting list to receive Jadelle.
skin. Because of its low dose of hormones,
China Pays to Stop at One
the pill, and is also safe for nursing mothers.
Parents in Yunnan Province who are eligi-
The gel contains Nestorone, a synthetic
ble to have a second child will be rewarded
progesterone, and estrogen. Together, the
with 1,000 yuan ($149) in cash for choosing
drugs prevent the ovaries from releasing an
to have only one. Several other provinces
egg each month.
have similar cash rewards.
The contraceptive gel is still in the early stages of clinical trials, but results so far have
Pope Condones Condoms
been encouraging. It is being developed by
Pope Benedict XVI stated in an interview
Antares Pharma, an American pharmaceuti-
that condoms may be used by prostitutes to
cal company.
prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS. This is a big departure from his statement last year about
Philippines RH Bill Update
condoms actually encouraging the spread of
The Reproductive Health Bill is currently
HIV/AIDS. He still condemns the use of con-
before the Philippines Congress. If the bill
doms or any other artificial contraception for
passes, responsibility for family planning will
the purpose of preventing pregnancy.
The ZPG Society honors members who have identified Population Connection as a beneficiary of their estates. Since our early days as Zero Population Growth, we have sought progressive solutions to ending rapid population growth and its terrible consequences. This is our legacy for the planet. Will it be yours? If you have already included Population Connection (or Zero Population Growth) in your estate plans, please contact Shauna Scherer, Major Gifts Manager, at (800) 767-1956 or sscherer@popconnect.org so that we may formally induct you into The ZPG Society!
Julian and Katharine Donahue
By Julian P. Donahue
I first joined ZPG in 1974. Kathy, my wife of two years, and I had already made the decision not to have children. Even then it was clear that the Earth was overpopulated. The ZPG video depicting the global population explosion made a profound impression on me—I’ve shared it at a number of environmental fairs and expos. And living in India as a young adult for three years in the late 1950s (my father was a USAID agronomist who was there working on increasing food production through improved soils and fertilizers) let me see overpopulation in action. As a lepidopterist, I was a colleague of Paul Ehrlich (my profession was museum curator of moths and butterflies). Of course The Population Bomb made a big impression on me. Because of my experience as an entomologist, where I witnessed firsthand how populations left unchecked can outstrip their resources, population stabilization was a no-brainer for me. In ecology classes I learned about “carrying capacity” and “limiting factors,” and I’ve been preaching those concepts ever since. I met Kathy at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, where we both began working in 1970; we were married a year and a half later. She was the Museum Librarian for 17 years before going to UCLA, where she was head of the History and Special Collections Division of the Louise M. Darling Biomedical Library. She retired in 2008. Having worked with biology books all her life, in an academic atmosphere, she became an early convert to the population stabilization cause.
Julian and Kath y with a Sake r Falcon at Ba b al Shams in Dubai
We have traveled the world together on Museum field trips and natural history tours, and since retirement the tempo of our foreign travel has increased—mostly using the quest to see new birds as an excuse. Since she retired we have birded in Cuba, the Lesser Sundas (Indonesia), Thailand, Peru, India, Sri Lanka, Hong Kong, and Namibia, not to mention Hawaii, Arizona, New Mexico, Michigan, and North Carolina. I am disheartened by the fact that most of the world (especially the U.S.) hasn’t caught on to what I’ve known to be a fact for 40 years—overpopulation decreases the quality of life, depletes natural resources, destroys habitats and open spaces, causes species extinctions, increases pollution, increases traffic congestion, leads to periods of famine, and on and on. In my mind, education and legislation are the keys to putting the brakes on overpopulation, although in today’s political climate it seems to be an insurmountable task. But this is why we support Population Connection, and why 40 percent of our estate is earmarked for Population Connection—and has been since we created our family trust in 1991. www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
5
editor’s note
U
nwilling to foster dynamic economies that could create
demographic transition is
jobs attractive to educated young men, the countries
the series of phases that a
[non-oil Arab nations and Pakistan] became economically
population passes through
stagnant and reliant on the safety valve of worker emigration
as it goes from having high
either to the Arab oil states or to the West. Furthermore, the
birth and death rates to low
repression and isolation of women in many Muslim countries
birth and death rates. Naturally, during the period after death
have not only seriously limited individual opportunity but
rates fall, but before birth rates fall, population grows and
also crippled overall economic productivity.
there are many young people.
By the 1990s, high birthrates and declining rates of infant
Bradley Thayer, professor of Political Science at Baylor
mortality had produced a common problem throughout the
University, found that 60 of the 88 countries with youth
Muslim world: a large, steadily increasing population of
bulges are currently experiencing social unrest. He composed
young men without any reasonable expectation of suitable
a list of Islamic countries in which at least 30 percent of the
or steady employment—a sure prescription for social tur-
population is between the ages of 15 and 24. The list includes
bulence. Many of these young men, such as the enormous
Afghanistan, Yemen, Palestine, Iraq, Pakistan, Jordan, Syria,
number trained only in religious schools, lacked the skills
Oman, Egypt, Bangladesh, Libya, Algeria, and Morocco.
needed by their societies. Far more acquired valuable skills
According to Thayer, youth bulges in some of the most vul-
but lived in stagnant economies that could not generate
nerable countries provide terrorist leaders with a large pool of
satisfying jobs...
potential recruits for their fundamentalist causes.
Frustrated in their search for a decent living, unable to
One of the top researchers on this subject is Jack A.
benefit from an education often obtained at the cost of
Goldstone. Dr. Goldstone is a consultant to the State
great family sacrifice, and blocked from starting families of
Department, FBI, and USAID. He is also a professor at George
their own, some of these young men were easy targets for
Mason University, and the author of nine books and dozens
radicalization.
of articles. We are honored that he agreed to write an article —The 9/11 Commission Report
specifically for this issue of The Reporter that addresses the connections between demography and security.
A growing body of research suggests that a large propor-
Goldstone wrote earlier that “Youth have played a promi-
tion of young men in a society (compared with older work-
nent role in political violence throughout recorded history,
ing-age men) is a potent risk factor for civil war and Islamic
and the existence of a “youth bulge”...has historically been
fundamentalist terrorism. The theory that a “youth bulge”
associated with times of political crisis.” His article on page 10
(an unusually high proportion of youths 15 to 24 relative to
expands upon this theory and also includes his analysis on
the total adult population) is a disaster waiting to happen has
minimizing vulnerability to climate changes, maximizing
been around for some time. It is gaining support constantly,
human capital, and answering immigration questions that are
as new conflicts ignite amongst young populations around
critical to global security as the rich world shrinks and the
the world.
poor and middle-income world expands.
A youth bulge is a product of the demographic transition, explored in more detail in the book review on page 8. The Statistics and quotes in this column drawn from: Jack A. Goldstone, “Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict” Journal of International Affairs, Fall 2002, vol. 56, no. 1. Bradley A. Thayer, “Considering Population and War: A Critical and Neglected Aspect of Conflict Studies” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 2009, 364, 3081-3092.
6
The Reporter — January 2011
Marian Starkey mstarkey@popconnect.org
Letters to the Editor
Thanks for the latest issue of The Reporter. I just became a
women are refraining from motherhood, while people like the
member of Population Connection, and was pleased to see
Duggars have 19 children.
the issue focused on maternal mortality. I came early to the
Will the world be long on Duggars and short on those who
issue of overpopulation from an environmental/energy per-
recognize the need to control fertility? Scary thought.
spective, but when one starts to calculate CO2 emissions (per-
Joyce Calese
sonal or worldwide), it quickly becomes clear that fertility is a
Port St. Lucie, FL
crucial variable—and when considering how to most efficiently reduce CO2 emissions, I’ve recently come to understand
You all are doing such good work in the world, and I can see
that investing in family planning and maternal health is likely
you really know your topics. I was inspired to make a dona-
the most cost effective path, apart from the clear moral and
tion to support your work, so I just did that online.
humanitarian imperatives we should consider first.
Thank you again for all the great work you’re doing to
Brian Levy
make this world a better, healthier place.
Washington, DC
Sue Sikora Olympia, WA
Congratulations on an especially good looking issue. Allan Daniel
Submit a Letter
Park Ridge, NJ
Send correspondence to mstarkey@popconnect.org or via fax (202) 332-2302 or postal mail:
I am in complete agreement with the mission and goals of
Attn: Marian Starkey
Population Connection and am aware that many of the
Population Connection
world’s problems come from high fertility.
2120 L St. NW, Suite 500
However, I do find it troubling that educated, thinking
Washington, DC 20037
New Board Members Eli Y. Adashi, MD, MS is the immediate past Dean of Medicine and Biological Sciences at Brown University. He is presently a tenured professor in the Department of Medical Science at Brown University. As a recent Franklin fellow with over 25 years of experience in domestic and international health care, he is Senior Advisor on Global Women’s Health to the Secretary of State Office of Global Women’s Issues. He is also an advisor to the WHO, the World Bank, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. J. Joseph Speidel, MD, MPH is a professor in the Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California, San Francisco and Director for Communication, Development and External Relations in the UCSF Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health. Dr. Speidel is a graduate of Harvard College, Harvard Medical School and the Harvard School of Public Health. Dr. Speidel’s previous positions include Director of USAID’s Office of Population, President of Population Action International, and Director of the Population Program at the Hewlett Foundation. Jo Lynne Whiting is a marketing and advertising expert. She has helped market leaders and competitive upstarts across several continents achieve marked turnarounds in 12 to 18 months. She has executive experience as an officer of a Fortune 100 company. She has been part of the executive team at Sensis (Australian Yellow Pages company) and was Vice President of US West (now Qwest), a telecommunications company, from 1990 to 2000. She has been a longtime supporter of and tireless volunteer for ZPG/Population Connection. www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
7
Tim
Review by Marian Starkey
Dyson was my professor of Population
tion and delaying parenthood
and Development at the London
makes a lot more sense. The
School of Economics. He was the most
challenge is to get fertility rates
animated, enthusiastic professor I ever had. He sprinted back
to come down as quickly as pos-
and forth across the front of the classroom, rushing to show
sible after mortality decline
us pertinent graphs on the overhead projector that illustrated
occurs. The longer it takes
his favorite, most hard-hitting points. One of his students
between these two events, the
recently created a Tim Dyson Appreciation Society page on
faster and larger the population
Facebook. As the tagline for the group justifies, “Because
will grow.
anyone who can make the Demographic Transition seem so
Dyson found that every coun-
damn exciting, and in fact so important, deserves a fan club.”
try that has experienced mortali-
Population and Development is a scholarly book about a
ty decline has subsequently
complex topic. But it is written for anyone interested in pop-
experienced urbanization and that urbanization is happening
ulation issues. It’s an overview of the demographic transition
at a faster pace than ever before. In fact, he states that all
(the change from high to low birth and death rates), with
future population growth will occur in urban areas, both from
plenty of examples and footnotes explaining obscure terms
natural increase (births over deaths) and rural to urban migra-
and concepts. It should be read by anyone studying
tion. Slums in developing countries are absorbing much of the
International Development, Public Health, or Development
new urban population. Most of the people living in slums have
Economics, especially if demography is not covered in the
no electricity, running water, or proper sanitation facilities.
degree program. As Dyson makes clear throughout the
One of Dyson’s driving points is that fertility decline has
book, the development we’ve seen over the past two cen-
never happened anywhere without mortality decline hap-
turies would never have occurred if it weren’t for the demo-
pening first. This is important to consider in the planning of
graphic transition and its social and economic implications.
new family planning programs or the evaluation of those
This book is a wake-up call to anyone who believes that
that already exist. Programs that address several issues simul-
the rapid population growth that the developing world is
taneously—the creation of new livelihoods, environmental
experiencing is different or “worse” than the growth experi-
and resources conservation, and especially health interven-
enced by industrialized countries early in their own transi-
tions (which lead to mortality decline)—are particularly suc-
tions. As his abundant examples illustrate, the pattern by
cessful at attracting new contraceptive users and achieving
which countries worldwide advance through the transition is
critical buy-in from the community and its leaders.
the same. In each instance, population growth precedes fer-
Dyson addresses the benefits of lower fertility for women,
tility decline, as a natural consequence of mortality decline.
including greater gender equality, employment opportuni-
“[W]hen dealing with the demographic transition we are
ties, and time to pursue other interests. He also briefly dis-
focusing on a phenomenon that, in very long-run perspec-
cusses population aging in the industrialized world. He trivi-
tive, is fundamentally uniform.”
alizes the panic over aging, saying that it will be no more
Mortality decline is a good thing. Fewer people dying at younger ages means that parents and societies begin to see
8
challenging than when children made up a larger proportion of the population compared with working adults.
the value in education, savings, infrastructure development,
This is not an advocacy book by any means and it’s not a
and other human capital and quality of life investments.
light read. It is, however, an essential analysis for under-
When people expect to die in their forties, it’s difficult to
standing and appreciating the massive societal changes that
convince them that they should stay in school rather than
occur from a pre-transitional society, wherein most children
marry and have children during adolescence. When they
die, to a post-transitional society, in which a slower-growing
plan to live until they are in their seventies, pursuing educa-
population enjoys a longer and higher quality of life.
The Reporter — January 2011
Zed Books. 2010. Pp272. US$28.95. ISBN-13: 978-1842779606
Book Review
Population and Development: The Demographic Transition
Excerpts from Population and Development By Tim Dyson, PhD
fits the o bene ls a e n li c it is the tility de inly, fer ansition r a t t r e e c h t t hin e of Almos the rat rse, wit u in o c ll f a f y. O he ecogabout t econom been r brings g h n ic lo h w as ut it h ere the process wth. B ces wh o n r a g t s n m tio from to circu popula fertility mpared in o c e n — li t c a e d h—a d nized th save an ains hig tion to m e la r u e p t o a ap (i.e. birth r allows capital ls n e a v m le u fh low ysical erms o high to s of ph oth in t b m r — e t e r o ) and in invest m y, etc.). training d n a achiner n m io , t s a c ie r u to ed ads, fac (e.g. ro l a it p a c
The d emog raphi ly im c tran porta sition n t and has b the large world een a l y a terrif d w vanta ould place icalg p e robab ous a if th f e l f y r a e w aroun ir. Bu be a ere t d. An more some d, pr s w rema e c h o u a v r t few e ided ins re that er o lative many the w f us ly un peop orld’s chan le wi ged, clima large ll ben then te and efit i the l l o n n i v g ga birth e a s l l of sorts ps b rates etwe of w can en d pass a y b s e i eath f throu reduc rates gh th ed, a e dem and s the ograp ir co untri hic tr es ansit ion.
Research shows that children in smaller families tend to do better in terms of their nutritional, health and educational status, compared to children in larger families (i.e. children with more siblings).
Studies
of inte rnation conclud al cros e that r s-sectio a p nal da id p opulatio effect o ta ofte n a cou n grow n t n h t r h y a ’s s le a equal. A n adver vel of d se potentia emocra cy, othe lly diffic ing po r u t lt h in f pulatio eature gs n is th of a rap e expa young idly gro nsion o adults— wf the n say, th Particu umber ose in larly if of the ag employ e r a n this ag g m e e n 1 t 5-24. is hard e range to find can be , of expr p e e s p o e p cially c le in essing halleng discont ing in t nance o ent, an e rms d there f sociofore th politica e main l stabilit tey.
The period since about 1800 has been termed the ‘Anthropocene’ because of the huge impact which people have had on the world’s environment. The massive rise in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions is especially important here—because it threatens calamitous climate change. In simple terms, it’s a question of both what we do, and how many of us there are. Population growth has played—and it will
present— past, as well as — th ow gr n Populatio n to global role in relatio nt ca ifi gn si a . plays imate change e threat of cl th d an g in m t war portant subjec at extremely im th if en ev , e And th the case that side, it remains is put on one rapidly countries with or po y an m future of iably better will be apprec ns tio la pu po growing faster, rather their fertility ce du re n ca t if they al doubt abou . There is no re ly ow sl e or m pthan e can be few ha nnection, ther co at th In . at th the viduals and both for indi s— ge an ch er pi e prolive—than thos ey th ch hi w societies in adoption of, and the free , to ss ce ac vided by ption. ds of contrace modern metho
continue to play—a significant underlying role in this connection. www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
9
10
The Reporter — January 2011
www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
11
In
the last twenty years, the vol-
recently striking major developing world
increase by only 30 percent in the next
ume of deaths from major
cities, not only in Iraq and Afghanistan,
forty years, from 2010 to 2050 (UN
conflicts has plummeted, and
but Mumbai and Lahore, as well as
2010a). Yet it is not the total number of
American and European cities.
people on the planet by itself that will
the number of major, ongoing, political conflicts has sharply declined. In the
Natural disasters have become worse
Balkans, in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in
as well. Flooding in Pakistan that affect-
security in the near future. What mat-
the Democratic Republic of Congo,
ed an estimated 20 million people was
ters is how they are distributed across
Ethiopia, and Rwanda, and in Nepal and
an unprecedented toll for a single disas-
regions and across age groups, their
Sri Lanka, among others, civil wars have
ter. But it came at the end of a decade
exposure and contribution to changing
given way to peace agreements and
of headline crises caused by earth-
climate, and their opportunities for edu-
elected governments.
quakes in Haiti, Sichuan, Kashmir, and
cation, jobs, migration, and health. And
Indonesia that killed tens or hundreds of
in these regards, a number of troubling
thousands.
trends are raising grave challenges.
Yet we still feel insecure—and with good reason. Despite death tolls that
determine prospects for prosperity and
are modest for civil wars (in Iraq, for
Finally, a large number of lawless or
First, the ability of today’s rich coun-
instance, combatant deaths in the thou-
weakly-governed regions exist in many
tries to serve as motors of the global
sands and civilian deaths in the tens of
countries—notably the Niger Delta, the
economy and keepers of global peace is
thousands are a far cry from the hun-
eastern Democratic Republic of the
going to decline substantially in coming
dreds of thousands or millions killed in
Congo, the northern border regions in
decades. This is because of the aging
Photos, left to right: 1. A small boy after he receives his ration at an IDP (Internally Displaced Persons) camp in Kenya. Tom Otieno/Afrishot 21, Photoshare. 2. A child experiences detainment at an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp in Dili, East Timor. Arturo Sanabria, Photoshare. 3. Child soldiers in the DRC. Ksundvall, Flickr. 4. Children at an IDP camp in northern Uganda. Alessandro Vincenzi, Photoshare.
12
many civil wars that raged in the
Mexico, parts of Central America and
and shrinking of the workforce in
1980s), the number of displaced peo-
the Caribbean, parts of northeast India,
today’s richest nations. In these nations
ples fleeing from potential violence has
and sections of the Caucuses, among
(all of Europe, including the Russian
skyrocketed, quadrupling from 1980 to
others—which provide easy access for
Federation, Australia and New Zealand,
2010 and reaching 40 million people
criminal gangs and drug trafficking, and
the United States and Canada, and
(Center for Systemic Peace, 2010).
suffer from high rates of homicide, kid-
Japan and South Korea), the prime
These tens of millions, living far from
napping, rape, and assault.
workforce population, aged 15-59, will
home in foreign countries, refugee
What have these trends got to do
decline by over 100 million, or about 15
camps or swollen cities pose a constant
with global population changes? After
percent by 2050. Even more startling,
threat of renewed violence, and a chal-
all, global population growth is dramat-
the fraction of all adults (aged 20 and
lenge to public health and welfare. In
ically slowing down: overall world pop-
up) over age 60 in these countries will
addition, terror attacks against civilians
ulation, which grew by almost 90 per-
increase from 25 percent to 37 percent.
have become a global scourge, most
cent from 1970 to 2010, is projected to
In the most rapidly aging countries,
The Reporter — January 2011
Yet it is not the total number of people on the planet by itself that will determine prospects for prosperity and security in the near future. What matters is how they are distributed across regions and across age groups, their exposure and contribution to changing climate, and their opportunities for education, jobs, migration, and health. And in these regards, a number of troubling trends are raising grave challenges.
At the same time, a combination of continued population growth and increases in education, capital ratios, and hence productivity per worker in the developing countries will shift global economic growth potential heavily in their direction. Indeed, while the prime labor force (the population aged 1559) is expected to shrink by 100 million in the richer countries by 2050, the population in this age group in the developing world is projected to grow by 1.2 billion. We can divide developing countries into two groups. There are those that have nearly completed
their
demographic
Children in a camp for internally displaced persons in Minakulu, Uganda, lie under a mosquito net in preparation for bedtime. Minakulu IDP camp is just one of hundreds of such camps created by the government to protect civilians from rebel attacks during the civil war that has rocked Northern Uganda for the last 20 years. Malaria is one of the leading killer diseases in protected camps. Gilbert Awekofua/Straight Talk Foundation, Photoshare. Women carry water home in Geles, an Arab village in Darfur. While the ACT-Caritas Darfur Emergency Response Operation is focused primarily on responding to the needs of Darfur's internally displaced people, it also is helping Arab villages, many of them host communities, as a contribution toward reconciliation and peace. Paul Jeffrey/ACT-Caritas, Photoshare.
transition, and are enjoy-
such as Germany, Italy, and Japan, this
ing a ‘demographic dividend’ of rapid
fraction will reach 40 percent or even
growth among the prime working pop-
50 percent of all adults. Even in relative-
ulation, with smaller cohorts of children
ly youthful rich countries, like the
and elderly and modest overall growth.
United States, the proportion of those
And there are those where the demo-
over 60 among all adults over 20 will
graphic transition is in the early stages
increase from roughly 1 in 5 today to
or stalled, so that they are still burdened
almost 1 in 3 by mid-century. With a
with rapidly rising youth cohorts and
shrinking and aging labor force, rich
total populations that are set to double
countries will struggle to keep up the
every 25 to 35 years. In the first group
level of productivity gains and rates of
are countries such as China, India,
overall economic growth they enjoyed
Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, and
in the last forty years. This shrinking
Mexico. These are the likely economic
pool of manpower for labor and military
powerhouses of the next century, and
roles will also mean a reduced ability to
the countries that will have to step up to
send troops to intervene in global trou-
take on responsibilities in global peace-
ble spots, while a much larger share of
keeping commensurate with their
national output will have to be spent on
increased role in the global economy. In
support and health care for the aging
the second group are countries such as
rather than on defense.
Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, Palestine,
www.popconnect.org
Photos on pages 10-11 (clockwise from top left):
Internally displaced women return to their camp in West Darfur, after scouring the surrounding countryside for precious firewood. Conflict-affected populations dependent on wood for cooking and local vegetation for shelter materials overexploit the environment in the vicinity of the camps and over time must journey deeper into insecure areas to gather essential supplies. Doug Mercado, Photoshare. A young boy from Darfur, who was displaced by an attack against his village, sleeps next to what remains of his family's possessions after reaching the relative safety of Kalma camp. Armed men killed his father two days earlier, leaving the young boy and his mother to face an uncertain future in a fractured land. Doug Mercado, Photoshare. January 2011 — The Reporter
13
Chad, Rwanda, Guinea, Uganda, the
the demographically blessed countries
ple added to the population of urban
Democratic Republic of the Congo,
(those with a large labor force but few
areas in poorer countries. At that point,
Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Iraq, Ethiopia,
older and not too many younger people)
the ‘typical’ human being will be a city-
Kenya, Guatemala, Timor-Leste and
on the sidelines. This seems unlikely to
dweller in one of today’s developing
Nigeria. It is no coincidence that these
be a formula for success.
regions (UN 2010b).
countries also read like a list of those
Second, and equally alarming, is the
The quality of life on earth thus will
countries most in need of international
global trend to concentrating popula-
depend primarily on how that ‘typical’
intervention for humanitarian assistance
tion growth in megacities and in regions
human lives.
or peace-keeping. In these countries,
especially vulnerable to climate change.
Will the megacities of China, India,
the combination of weak, corrupt or
Throughout human history, living in
Pakistan, Egypt, Nigeria, Ethiopia,
divided government and large popula-
cities has been a privilege of the few,
Mexico, Brazil, and elsewhere be safe,
tions of young people creates propitious
and only in the richest societies. The
healthy, productive and creative places?
conditions for militias and rebels to
great cities of the past were capitals and
Or will they be Dickensian pools of dis-
recruit followers and to exploit local
trading centers of the richest empires
ease, crowding, crime, and unemploy-
resources and populations, creating
and kingdoms—Rome, Baghdad, Cairo,
ment, where a privileged and wealthy
political instability. It is vital to improve
Venice, Madrid, London, Paris, Istanbul,
minority seeks to wall off a vast under-
governance, education, and economic
Tokyo,
Nanjing,
class? And perhaps even more impor-
opportunities in the countries of this
Delhi—which even then rarely held
tant, will the new megacities be more
second category, in order to provide
more than 10 percent of their societies’
energy-efficient, less polluting, and
Beijing,
employment for ever-larger youth
total populations. Yet today, we find
more resilient to natural disasters than
cohorts. It is also critical in these early-
most of the world’s large cities, those
the dispersed villages that their inhabi-
transition countries to improve maternal
with one million or more people (from
tants left behind? Or, will they repro-
health and women’s reproductive rights
Lagos and Cairo to Karachi, Mumbai,
duce the high energy and material
in order to complete the demographic
and Jakarta) in some of the world’s
using, high pollution and high waste
transition and get on the path toward
poorest countries. What is more, these
producing residential, transport, and
enjoying a demographic dividend. It is
countries are increasingly concentrating
manufacturing systems of today’s rich
countries that have completed the
their populations in megacities of 5 to
world, with the vulnerability to natural
demographic transition, and arrived at
10 million or even larger. In just the last
disasters of today’s developing country
favorable ratios of workers to young
decade, humanity as a whole made a
population centers? On the answer to
and elderly, that have shown the great-
historic shift from being a primarily rural
that question, and the kind of environ-
est success in making transitions to
to a primarily urban species, as more
mental footprint left by cities of the
steady economic growth, democracy,
than half of all people worldwide now
near future, will ride much of the actu-
and political stability (Cincotta 2008).
14
Xi’an,
live in metropolitan urban regions. By
ality or illusion of the threat posed by
What is most striking, from a security
2050, roughly two-thirds of all people,
long-term climate change in the late 21st
point of view, is that looking forward to
even in Asia and Africa, are projected to
and early 22nd centuries.
coming decades, the current structure of
live in urban areas, and roughly 80 per-
This question is particularly pressing
global security—based largely on NATO
cent of them will live in today’s devel-
because of the trend of global popula-
and the UN Security Council permanent
oping countries. The projected growth
tion growth to concentrate in areas par-
members—puts the main tasks of global
of the urban population in the less
ticularly vulnerable to climate change.
security on the shoulders of the demo-
developed regions is 73 percent, or
The fastest growing countries in the
graphically declining countries to assist
more than twice as fast as global popu-
world cluster in the arid regions of the
and improve security in the demograph-
lation growth on the whole. Indeed, it is
Sahel and the Middle East, and the
ically burdened countries (those with
no exaggeration to say that virtually all
monsoon-dependent regions of south
weak governance but fast-growing and
of net global population growth in the
Asia. Roughly three-quarters of all net
very youthful economies). This leaves
next 40 years will take the form of peo-
global population growth in the next
The Reporter — January 2011
A young refugee in the Kounoungo camp in eastern Chad. Conflict in the Darfur region of neighboring Sudan has killed an estimated 30,000 people and displaced nearly 1.5 million others since early 2003. This young boy is one of the 12,000 who now crowd the Kounoungo camp, awaiting the peace that will allow them to return home. David Snyder/CRS, Photoshare. www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
15
four decades will occur in these areas.
efficient, that can protect public health
the spread of diseases, crime, and cli-
Flooding from too-heavy or regionally
and safety, and can offer resilience and
mate shifts to even the richest nations
shifting monsoons and devastating
refuge from climate change and natural
of the globe.
droughts from monsoon failures or
disasters, then building and expanding
Finally, keeping global migration to
increasing aridity will likely afflict these
the cities of the developing world can
levels that are manageable and do not
regions just as they struggle to feed and
contribute greatly to global prosperity.
increase conflicts will depend on
employ
populations.
Yet if developing countries put up con-
improving the quality of life and eco-
Displaced populations, which still num-
ventional cities and transport and ener-
nomic opportunities and resilience to
ber in the tens of millions, are also con-
gy networks, and do not greatly
disaster in those countries with the
centrated in these regions, as they have
improve their governance of them, the
youngest and fastest-growing popula-
been the major sites of conflict in the
ravenous appetite of these centers for
tions. If those additions to the global
last decade.
energy and materials, and their vulnera-
labor force and their families—roughly
far
larger
There is both a vast economic oppor-
bility to terrorism, natural disasters,
two billion in the next forty years, all in
tunity and a vast risk here. If new mod-
organized crime, and disease will
developing
els of urban centers can be designed
degrade the quality of life for much of
work, or are driven to flee from crime,
and built that are energy and material-
humanity, and pose global threats from
climate deterioration and natural disas-
countries—cannot
find
A woman takes refuge in an IDP camp set up on a lava flow in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. She is displaced by fighting between rebels and government forces in the eastern Congo. Paul Jeffrey, Photoshare. 16
The Reporter — January 2011
Finally, keeping global migration to levels that are manageable and do not increase conflicts will depend on improving the quality of life and economic opportunities and resilience to disaster in those countries with the youngest and fastest-growing populations. If those additions to the global labor force and their families—roughly two billion in the next forty years, all in developing countries—cannot find work, or are driven to flee from crime, climate deterioration and natural disasters, they will seek asylum in the richer countries, or the more successful developing nations.
free-for-all of competition and idiosyncratic exclusions, both host nations and the inevitably fast-growing wave of potential immigrants would have a clearer idea of their rights and opportunities for education, work, and settlement abroad. The world has made remarkable progress in extending life spans, reducing violent conflicts, and diminishing overall population growth. Yet as with all successes, new challenges arise in their wake. A changed world is coming at us fast, where the typical person is neither an urban resident in the rich West, nor a poor peasant in the Third World, but a person living in a megacity in a middle or lower-income country. If we do not prepare quickly for that world, we risk living on a planet with much higher risks from crime, disease, unchecked
migration,
ever-greater
ters, they will seek asylum in the richer
ing countries where most of the world’s
humanitarian disasters, and political
countries, or the more successful devel-
future labor force is growing up today,
instability.
oping nations. While richer countries
and improving local governance so that
will need some increased migration to
those investments can bear fruit. This is
fill positions created by their own
vital to enabling those youth to become
declining labor force, they will neither
productive adults with local opportuni-
need nor desire a tsunami of migrants
ties to lead secure lives, and to diminish
such as would be unleashed by major
the ungoverned or poorly governed
failures in developing countries to cope
spaces in which crime and terrorism
with rapid urban growth or with climate
thrive. A crucial part of this will be gain-
changes that undermine local produc-
ing government support for measures
tivity or increase disaster risk.
to improve women’s health and repro-
At this moment, neither the global
ductive rights to help countries that
security architecture nor the design of
have not yet done so to complete their
urban systems seems well-suited to the
demographic transition. A third will be
challenges that lie ahead. We thus need
global cooperation in developing and
new ‘architecture’ for both. Reshaping
implementing new designs for large-
global governance to give a greater role
scale urban systems that will improve
to the countries that will be the chief
rather than degrade the quality of life
motors for global economic growth will
for those living and working in them. A
be one major key to future security. A
fourth key will be developing global
second will be promoting investments in
agreements and conventions on inter-
education and capital in those develop-
national migration, so that instead of a
www.popconnect.org
References Center for Systemic Peace. 2010. “Global Conflict Trends.” Website updated September 11, 2010. http://www.systemicpeace.org/conflict.htm Cincotta, Richard. 2008. “How Democracies Grow Up.” Foreign Policy, February 19, 2008. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2008/0 2/19/how_democracies_grow_up United Nations. 2010a. “World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Data Base” Online at http://esa.un.org/UNPP/. Consulted December 12, 2010. United Nations. 2010b. “World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Data Base.” On-line at http://esa.un.org/unup/. Consulted December 12, 2010.
January 2011 — The Reporter
17
Washington View
Family Planning Faces a Tough Road After 2010 Midterm Elections Losses in the House Mean Hostile Legislation is Likely By Stacie Murphy
here is just no other way to say it: the
Attempts to ban federal funding for
November 2010 midterm elections
Planned Parenthood and other reproduc-
dealt a major setback to family plan-
tive health care providers who receive fed-
ning advocates. After two years of significant
eral money to provide medical care to low-
progress in both funding levels and policy
income women.
T
language, we are now faced with the reality
A similar effort occurred in the past in the
that holding on to the status quo may have to
form of an amendment authored by Rep.
be our new definition of victory.
Mike Pence (R-IN/6th).
Dozens of supportive House members were defeated in races across the country by
Attempts to block U.S. funding for the
opponents who ran on extremely conserva-
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
tive platforms. Although we don’t yet know
After being denied funding by the Bush
for certain how these incoming members will
Administration on the specious grounds that
vote on our issues, the outlook for many of
it supports coercive practices overseas, the
them is not promising.
U.S. has resumed its contributions to the pro-
We do know that the incoming Speaker of
gram under President Obama.
the House, John Boehner (R-OH/8 ), does th
not have a good track record either. He is
Attempts to reinstate the Global Gag Rule.
vocally anti-choice, and during the debate
Rescinded by President Obama in his first
over health care reform he specifically object-
week in office, imposing the Gag Rule would
ed to a provision designed to increase the
instantly defund some of the most experi-
availability of contraception to low-income
enced, effective family planning providers
women under Medicaid (the provision did
working in the developing world. The policy
survive into the final bill). Even more omi-
is a favorite of the anti-choice establishment.
nously, he personally met with the virulently, and violently, anti-choice former leader of
The restoration of Bush-era abstinence-
Operation Rescue, Randall Terry.
only programming and the defunding of
Given this new makeup, we expect to see multiple
18
The Reporter — January 2011
attempts
in
the
House
of
President
Obama’s
Teen
Pregnancy
Prevention Initiative.
Representatives to impose damaging restric-
After finally ending the Community Based
tions on family planning funding and policy in
Abstinence Education (CBAE) program,
2011. We have to assume that we will see
President Obama announced new invest-
each of the following in some form:
ments in effective, medically accurate, scien-
Rep. John Boehner (R-OH/8th) House Republican Conference
tifically-based programs to reduce the inci-
the Senate. However, our margins in the
dence of teen pregnancy and STIs. This
Senate are still smaller than they were before,
tremendous step forward could well be
and the overall tone of the chamber is likely
undone by ideologues dedicated to the absti-
to be more rancorous. We are going to have
nence-only approach.
to be vigilant in monitoring the legislation the
These are only some of the more obvious threats we face in the coming months—and
Senate accepts as they negotiate with the now-more conservative House.
worse, our analysis indicates that each of
The new congressional session is scheduled
these initiatives would likely win if put to a
to start later this month, and Population
floor vote in the new House.
Connection will be watching closely.
Fortunately, the picture is somewhat better
Sign up to receive updates on legislative
in the Senate, where several extreme Right
matters on our website, in the STAY UPDATED!
Wing candidates failed in their attempts to
box on the upper right-hand side. Receive
win seats held by family planning supporters.
daily population and family planning news by
Even if all the above measures pass the
becoming a fan of our Facebook page:
House, they would be unlikely to survive in
www.facebook.com/PopulationConnection
www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
19
Field & Outreach
We Can’t Grow on Like This
Interdisciplinary Grassroots Outreach Engaging communities across the country, starting with their interests By Rebecca Harrington
Creating Peaceful Families
Marilyn later reflected, “The conversation
Marilyn Mayers attended our spring panel
explored how the ability of a woman to con-
discussion, “Stories from the Frontlines,” at
trol her destiny largely depends on the avail-
Bellevue College, just outside Seattle. She
ability of peace, family planning, and educa-
wanted to keep grassroots momentum going
tion. The group appreciated learning about
in her community so she invited Population
what is being done to address these needs
Connection to speak on a panel at the East
both here and in developing countries.”
Shore Unitarian Church (ESUC), where she is a member of the East Shore Women’s Perspective group. Women’s Perspective pro-
We continued the conversation about
motes human dignity, environmental balance,
women’s empowerment in November, with a
and world peace by doing service work with
screening of Not Yet Rain at Ohio State
local homeless shelters and supporting inter-
University. We co-hosted the event with the
national efforts in female education and
Ohio State Global Health Initiative, an aware-
empowerment.
ness-raising student group that coordinates
The panel—“Creating Peaceful Families”—
local and international volunteer opportuni-
explored different approaches to reducing
ties, including clinic work and high school
violence in the home and fostering healthy
outreach.
families both domestically and internationally.
About 70 students attended the screening
Lucie Eldridge of the Puget Sound Domestic
and stayed for a thoughtful discussion after-
Violence Safety Project shared her experience
ward. Students asked questions about the
as a long-time advocate for domestic violence
Global Gag Rule, shared their experiences in
victims. She described the work of the Project,
public health work, and expressed reserva-
which unites survivors, police, and relevant
tions about Rep. Steve Stivers’ commitment
agencies so that they can educate each other
to family planning. Rep. Stivers (R-OH/15th)
and develop more effective methods for tack-
was elected to the seat currently held by
ling domestic violence.
Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, in November. Rep.
About 25 women attended the program. The audience joined the panelists for a dis-
20
The Reporter — January 2011
Film Screening
Kilroy has been a strong supporter of family planning and reproductive choice.
cussion after the presentations about, in
Attendees included a recently returned
Marilyn’s words, “the structural and social
Peace Corps volunteer who worked on fami-
issues which perpetuate violence against
ly planning while abroad and is now working
women in different forms.”
toward her masters in Public Health at Ohio
State. Another participant is involved with
the Columbus staff of Rep. Kilroy, and a com-
the campus International Development
munity “salon” hosted by a Columbus cou-
Coalition and hopes to pair with Population
ple actively engaged in the city’s arts, media,
Connection to host an event on campus in
and legal communities.
Rebecca Harrington and Ayla Cash, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
the near future. Ayla Cash, President of the Global Health
Upcoming
Initiative, said after the event, “As population
We are working with East Shore Unitarian
continues to grow around the world, new
Church to coordinate an in-district advocacy
technologies such as birth control pills, [repro-
meeting with the staff of Rep. Dave Reichert
ductive health] policies, and expanded rights
(R-WA/8th). We are also planning an in-dis-
to abortion have increased the power women
trict advocacy meeting in the third district of
command; however, women’s healthcare is
Minnesota, where Erik Paulsen has been the
an often overlooked topic in many developing
Representative since January 2009.
nations. Thank you, Population Connection,
Capitol Hill Days 2011, our annual lobby
for bringing information about the population
training event, will be held in Washington,
crisis to the OSU campus!”
DC from April 1-5. Student scholarships are
Other events that we coordinated this fall included an in-district advocacy meeting with
Panelists Lucie Eldridge and Rebecca Harrington at East Shore Unitarian Church, Bellevue, WA
available! Find more info and register online at http://tinyurl.com/CapitolHillDays2011.
Activist Spotlight: Marilyn Mayers While pursuing doctoral research in Egypt during the 1980s, Marilyn worked for USAID as part of a multidisciplinary team examining Egypt’s health sector. During that effort, she came to recognize the complex relationships between population pressures, poverty, and health. Later, while teaching contemporary world issues to high school students in Washington state, she made a point of educating students about these connections. As a service volunteer within the Unitarian Universalist Women’s Federation, Marilyn is able to stand in solidarity with women both here and abroad. She believes deeply that the need to empower girls and women is one of the critical issues of our time. www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
21
PopEd
Activity: “The Chips of Trade” Using common objects to demonstrate resource distribution By Pamela Wasserman
country’s security heavily depends on
resent resources. It is easier to maintain the
its resource base. Does the country
health and wellbeing of a country’s citizens if
have
the country has a large and varied base of
A
sufficient
natural
resources for its citizens’
use and for trade to other
resources. This means that a country not only has resources in large quantities,
countries?
but that it possesses assorted types
What are characteris-
of resources—food, fuel, miner-
tics of resource-rich and resource-poor countries? How and why does trade for these resources occur?
als, cropland, access to clean water, etc. 5. Go over the terms export and import with the class.
In this teaching activity from our new
Export: a product we sell to other countries
online lesson plan at worldof7billion.org, stu-
that can’t or don’t make enough of the
dents will gain an understanding of global
item to meet their populations’ needs.
resource distribution and how it is affected by
Import: a product we buy from another
population growth. This activity is especially
country because we can’t or don’t make
appropriate for the middle school social stud-
enough of the item to meet our popula-
ies classroom.
tion’s needs. 6. Tell the students that upon a given signal
Materials: Poker chips; Yarn or masking tape
each country should try to collect up to, but no more than, three chips.
Procedure: 1. Count out poker chips so you have exactly twice as many chips as the number of students participating in the activity. 2. Select an area large enough to allow all students to move around the room. It might
8. Separate the class into four groups as outlined below and inform them of the meaning of their collections. Group 1: Students with three chips represent countries with rich resource bases that
12 ft x 12 ft.
are able to export more resources than other
off area at random.
The Reporter — January 2011
from inside the square.
be helpful to mark off an area approximately 3. Spread the chips out within the marked
22
7. Give a signal for students to collect chips
countries. Group 2: Students with two chips repre-
4. Explain to the students that each of
sent countries with more limited resource
them represents a country and the chips rep-
bases. Exports will be possible but some
Photo credits: Copper ore; Edward Westmacott. Oil extraction; Oleg Kozlov. Grain stalks; Arievdwolde. Rice; Kostyantin Pankin. Poker chips; Bjørn Hovdal. Dreamstime.com
imports may be needed.
country in each group?
Group 3: Students with one chip represent
2. If you don’t have a well-balanced
countries with either very limited resource
resource base, what could you do to improve
bases or an inability to access the natural
your situation?
resources they might have. Exports will be minimal and there will be a heavier reliance on imports.
3. How does Group 1’s ability to export resources affect its wealth and wellbeing? 4. How does Group 4’s dependence on the
Group 4: Students with no chips represent countries that have virtually no resources or
resources of other countries affect its wealth and wellbeing?
an inability to access resources to adequately
5. Based on the resources you have, would
support a human population. There is essen-
you like to see your country’s population
tially no capability for exports and a maxi-
increase, decrease, or stay the same? Why?
mum need for imports.
6. As a country’s leader, how does knowing the population of your country help
Discussion Questions: 1. Have the students look around the room
you plan for the future? 7. How are a country’s resources
and take note of how many “countries”
impacted by the size of its pop-
received three chips, two chips, one chip, and
ulation? By population
no chips. What would it be like to live in a
growth?
The chart below provides four countries as examples that fall into each group. Share the chart with your class by making it into a transparency, using PowerPoint, or making photocopies. * You’ll notice that Canada and Colombia export approximately the same amount as they import. However, this isn’t the case with Nepal and Eritrea. How can a country afford to import more than it exports? (Discuss borrowing from other countries; national debt; raising taxes, etc.) Data Sources: Population Reference Bureau; CIA Factbook. The full activity is available at www.Worldof7billion.org.
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Group 4
Country
Canada
Columbia
Nepal
Eritrea
Population Birth/Death rate (per 1,000) Growth rate
34.1 million
45.5 million
28 million
5.2 million
6.9 billion
11/7
20/6
28/8
37/9
20/8
0.8% Petroleum, natural gas, motor vehicles and parts, machinery, chemicals, wood, plastics, fertilizers, pulp, timber $323.4 billion
1.2% Petroleum, coffee, coal, nickel, emeralds, apparel, bananas $34 billion
1.4%
$9,484
$748
$32
$3
Main imports
Industrial equipment, Machinery and equipment, motor vehitransportation equipment, cles and parts, crude oil, chemicals, consumer goods, chemielectricity, durable consumer goods cals, paper products, fuel
Petroleum products, machinery and equipment, gold, electrical goods, medicine
Machinery, petroleum products, food
Total worth of imports
$327.2 billion
$3.6 billion
$627 million $12.29 trillion
Main exports Total worth of exports Worth of exports per person
www.popconnect.org
$31.5 billion
World
2.5% 1.2% Livestock, Clothing, carpets, texsorghum, tiles, juice, jute goods textiles, food $907 million $17 million $12.4 trillion
January 2011 — The Reporter
23
Remark
www.cartoonstock.com
24
The Reporter — January 2011
Kigali, Rwanda
Newark, New Jersey
The pill is now one of the most common contracep-
For the government to achieve its targets, it is
tives, used by more than 80 percent of American
important that the rate of population growth is close-
women—and under the new health reform law, it
ly monitored. Rwanda is one of the most densely
may soon be free.
populated countries in Africa, and if the population
A panel of experts will meet in upcoming months to
keeps growing uncontrollably, it will put a strain on
decide whether insurers should be mandated to cover
the country’s resources, therefore, hindering meeting
birth control, as most already do. There shouldn’t be
of the targets that are set out in the government’s
any debate about that.
programs.
The cost of the pill—maybe $10 to $50 a month—is
Family planning campaigns should be increased so
middling when compared with the many thousands of
that the sizes of families are manageable and enjoy
dollars spent on prenatal and pediatric care for an
the best possible standard of living. The Rwandan
unintended pregnancy.
people must understand that certain resources, such
We’ve come a long way from more than a century
as land, are limited and have to be shared and man-
ago, when contraceptives were illegal, to today,
aged well, if their lives are to be improved—one of
when—for the first time—all women may have access
the key objectives in the government’s plan.
to free birth control.
—Editorial Excerpt, October 15, 2010
It’s a personal choice, whether or not to use methods like the pill. But it’s to society’s great benefit to make sure every woman has the option. —Editorial Excerpt, November 14, 2010
www.popconnect.org
January 2011 — The Reporter
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