Water value The approximation of values of water use, based on the findings of the study’s part on water valuation, shows - under the assumption of a similar water supply - an increase over the period from 2010 to 2025 of about 92 % under scenario UBS-norm and of about 89 % under scenario UBS-GC. The overall value of water uses per year in scenario UBS-norm exceeds the one in scenario UBS-GC by 76 million JD in 2015, 109 million JD in 2020 and 131 million JD in 2025. Coverage of this difference by added value from the agricultural sectorin scenario UBS-GC would demand an increase of the average water value in this sector from currently 0.56 JD/m³ to about 0.68 JD/m³ in 2015, 0.70 JD/m³ in 2020 and 0.72 JD/m³ in 2025. This holds under medium assumptions on the development in the drivers and varies according to the stated range of values in table 7 (on alternatives see chapter 4 on agriculture). The assumption of a linear increase in values between the 5-year intervals allows again for a first approximation of the total value over the period from 2010 until 2025. The undiscounted values under medium assumptions on the drivers amount to about 121.6 billion JD under scenario UBSnorm and to about 120.3 billion JD under scenario UBS GC. The total value varies according to the development in the drivers by about ± 9 % in both scenarios, i.e. between 111.3 and 133.08 billion JD in scenario CS and between 110.0 and 131.7 billion JD in scenario OE. These figures give a first indication about the upper limit of the total costs for water supply, including investments, over this period. However, evaluations of the efficiency of investments will require information on the timeline of monetary inflows and outflows. Table 7:
Valuation of water use (except nuclear energy) under scenarios UBS-norm and UBS GC
year Municipal
Value1
Scenario UBS-norm
Scenario UBS-GC
JD/m³
Million JD/year 2015 2020 476 564
Million JD/year 2015 2020 383 431
2025 483
1.49²
(min-max)
2010 384
2025 645
2010 384
(384-384)
(475-484)
(561-590)
(635-695)
(384-384)
(382-389)
(428-451)
(475-521)
4,022
6,055
7,097
7,796
4,022
6,055
7,097
7,796
(4,0224,022)
(5,6596,451)
(6,3528,808)
(6,8758,808)
(4,0224,022)
(5,6596,451)
(6,3528,808)
(6,8758,808)
166
274
509
532
166
274
509
532
(166-166)
(220-328)
(313-752)
(321-802)
(166-166)
(220-328)
(313-752)
(321-802)
333
350
411
444
333
367
436
475
(333-333)
(345-353)
(398-419)
(424-455)
(333-333)
(363-371)
(424-444)
(457-485)
4,905
7,155
8,581
9,417
4,905
7,079
8,473
9,286
(4,905(6,707(7,645(8,285(4,905(6,632(7,5374,905) 7,607) 9,628) 10,730) 4,905) 7,531) 9,515) 1 average values per sector, cf, water valuation report, July 2011 2 value based on total costs of public network and opportunity costs ³ operation surplus according to UNSNA definitions per m³ in 2008 4 net value added per m³ in hotels and restaurants 5 operation surplus according to UNSNA definitions per m³ in 2008, weighted by total operation surplus per type of crops
(8,15610,589)
Industry
77.63³
(min-max)
Tourism
107.004
(min-max)
Agriculture
0.59
5
(min-max)
Total (min-max)
Source: team calculations
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