become more predictable, a reverse flow to countries of origin is likely to accelerate. •
Growth of Knowledge Sharing. Transnational knowledge sharing and innovation will continue to expand, as indicated by increasing international collaboration in industrial R&D (30% in the UK alone), the increased number of non-native research students (in the US approximately 32% are from Asia)18 and the growth of internationally owned patents (two thirds of the Russian Federation’s European Patent Organization (EPO) patents are owned or co-owned by foreign residents).19
•
Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Growth and Pervasiveness. Another powerful driver for the rate and range of innovation will be the continuing increase in the pervasiveness and processing power of ICT. Wearable and implanted wireless ICT is likely to be accessible to all that can afford it in the second half of the period, and users will be linked through sensors and networks that are enabled by computers that are significantly more capable than at present, possibly by 100bn times if quantum computing reaches its potential.20
•
Demand for New Energy Sources. The potential limits of hydrocarbon resources and the need to reduce carbon emissions will stimulate intensive research to find alternative forms of energy. These will include, but not be limited to, manufactured or renewable fuel sources such as biofuels and hydrogen, and possibly nuclear fusion later in the period.
18
Ibid. OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2005 – Executive Summary. 20 Peter Cochrane, ‘Uncommon Sense: Out of the box thinking for an in the box world’, Capstone, 2004. 19
21