March 2019
InSAFE the know HARBOUR?
We spend a lot of time and energy on keeping our clients focused on the long view. Successful investment comes from ‘time in, not timing’. You’ve heard it all before, we know. But it’s not often that our advice to avoid knee jerk reactions to market dips is rewarded with such immediate gratification. Despite the December 2018 dramas, most markets rebounded in January. For example, in the US, following the worst December since the Great Depression, the S&P500 went on to record the best January since 1987. And almost making up the previous month’s ‘losses’ in the process. (We put ‘losses’ in inverted commas, as they aren’t losses unless you cash in the investment. They are simply a snapshot of the value at a certain date.)
So are we heading for another crash? Or have we navigated the choppy waters for now? Will Brexit, China, Russia, France, Germany, Italy, the US, asteroids, Artificial Intelligence, Google, Trump, oil, Facebook, banks, interest rates, global warming, global cooling, the media, Amazon or Dick Dastardly pull the wheels off the global economy? Who knows? The only safe bet is to stay invested for the long term in a well-diversified managed portfolio, and ride out any storms along the way. Yes, the safest place for a ship is in the harbour. It’s just that it doesn’t get you anywhere.
IN THIS ISSUE.
Not that a good start to a year is any indication of how it ends up. Anyone remember the ’87 crash? Following a promising start to the year, October 1987 saw the largest one-day market falls in history. pg 2 - JULIE’S RANT & MONEY FOR NOTHING OR A CHEQUE FOR FREE pg 3 - MEET THE TEAM & OUT OF OFFICE pg 4 - HOW LONG DOES YOUR MONEY NEED TO LAST & ALFIE’S ANTICS pg 5 - WORD SEARCH & FEEDBACK pg 6 - OUR GUEST HOUSE pg 7 - WHAT OUR CLIENTS SAY ABOUT US, QUOTE OF THE MONTH & CALENDAR COMPETITION pg 8 - AROUND THE WORLD
PenLife Associates Ltd, 3 Tudor Court, Opus Avenue, York, YO26 6RS Tel: 01904 661140 Email: office@pen-life.co.uk Registered in England No: 2390548. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Authorisation Number 212972.
JULIE’S RANT: GLOBAL WARMING OR NEW ICE AGE? TAKE YOUR PICK
I’m puzzled. (Nothing surprising there - I often am.) On a recent visit to The Field Museum in Chicago, I stumbled upon something very interesting. There’s this graph (I’m a big fan of a graph, as some of you will know) which shows the Earth’s temperature over 65 million years. What’s very obvious is that the Earth’s temperature has been very volatile. (Makes FTSE look like a steady climb.) And far from global warming, things are way cooler now than they were back in the day when dinosaurs were a thing. If you bumped into T Rex in the Sahara today, he’d likely scoff ‘Mate, you don’t even know what warm is.’ This bloke from Alaska put together a graph showing the temperature of Greenland’s ice core over the last 10,000 years. (Don’t ask me how – I’m no scientist.) That makes it look like we might be heading for another ice age. I dare say it’s one of those things that depends on what you pick as your start and end point. Many graphs can be made to tell a completely different story that way. But here’s the thing. Whatever is happening to the temperature on this little blue planet would appear to have very little to do with you.
MONEY FOR NOTHING OR A CHEQUE FOR FREE We’ve built our business around referrals from lawyers, accountants and existing clients who like our ‘hands on’ approach to investment and tax planning, as well as our commitment to client care. And we really appreciate it. So we decided to reward clients who refer prospects to us with a crisp £50 note (or £50 cheque if preferred, but we really don’t think that has the same appeal as a relatively rare £50 note). We’ve already given away loads of £50s which we’re happy to do, and even better, we’re helping more people increase and protect their wealth from greedy bankers, crazy Governments, grasping authorities and other legalised robbers, and most importantly, helping our clients get the life they want.
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MEET THE TEAM 1. What would be your ideal day out? A festival with some friends. Live music, good cider, better company. 2. If you could trade lives with one person for an entire day who would it be and why? I’d trade lives with Evie, the other person in the Marketing department. She comes out with the craziest things. I’d love to see what goes on inside her head! 3. What is something you’ve always wanted to try but have been too scared to? Scuba Diving but I’d have to get over my fear of open water first. 4. What’s the best holiday you’ve ever had? I went to Japan in 2012, it was the best experience of my life. Their culture is so interesting, I would 100% go back. Nora Wood InHouse Creative PenLife Associates
5. Where do you want to visit before you die? I have so many places on my list but one place I would love to see is The Grand Canyon. 6. What’s your strangest talent? When I go cross eyed I can then move each of my eyes individually.
OUT OF OFFICE This month’s Out of Office comes from Ricardo Da Silva, one of our qualified advisers: Am I creative? I would say yes, but I’m definitely not an artist. Drawing and painting has been the stone in my shoe!! Last week PenLife set the challenge to draw and paint a picture with all my colleagues at work. Of course my first thought was “what I am doing here!!??”. I started following the step by step instructions given by Sandra Cooper, and began to draw my picture. It took me by surprise! I added colour until I noticed that what I created was beyond the artistic capabilities I thought I had. I was so surprised and proud that first thing I did was take it home to show my family. Yes, they were surprised too!! I have decided to write this for the PenLife newsletter to ensure that everyone knows that inside of me is a Picasso! (Well, maybe not). Unfortunately my wife wanted to frame and hang the picture but I had to bring it back to the office, where we are all hanging our masterpieces for future inspiration!! My wife wasn’t very pleased and she made me promise that if I take the picture back to work then I would have to buy her the original one! Is there anyone out there who knows Steven Brown?
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HOW LONG DOES YOUR MONEY NEED TO LAST?
Although for some it may not be a pleasant thought, everyone is going to pop their clogs at some point. However, it may not be as soon as anticipated. All this talk in the media and papers about ‘life expectancy’, but many of the statistics you hear are misconceptions. The Office for National Statistics claims that at birth, life expectancy for a man is around 79 years, and around 83 years for a woman. But if you approach your late sixties assuming that your money will only need to last you 1015 more years, you’re more than likely going to be in for a shock when your money runs out. This is why financial planning is better done sooner rather than later. There are so many factors out there as to why the statistics are illusive. A lot of people don’t actually make it from birth to pension age, which in lowers the average figure for life expectancy at birth. The ONS also says that of those who do make it to age 65, men can expect to live 18 years more and for women, 21 years more. When it comes to money, these extra years are very significant. It could just be the difference between living the end of your retired life struggling, or having financial security for both you and your family. So whether you require advice with investments, pension transfers, inheritance tax issues or anything else, you need to remember that seeing isn’t always believing. You may need a plan to last you longer than you originally thought.
ALFIE’S ANTICS I’ve had a super exciting month and have been up to a lot of new things! Vizslas like me are known as dogs who enjoy climbing so I thought I’d give it a go. Dad encouraged me until I got 10 feet off the ground and then he made me get down. It was so much fun but I think I was worrying Mum a bit too much. We also went for a walk around a lake and I fell in a sinkhole! I’ve never been so shocked. I bolted out of there immediately but I spent the rest of the day wet and muddy looking like a swamp monster.
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WORDSEARCH This month’s word search is Astronomy themed. Find the 10 words within the word search, send it back to us and you could win a £25 M&S voucher. The closing date for this edition is 31st March 2019. NAME: ............................................................... ........................................................................... ADDRESS: ....................................................... ........................................................................... .......................................................................... .......................................................................... .......................................................................... EMAIL: ..............................................................
MERCURY VENUS EARTH MARS JUPITER SATURN URANUS NEPTUNE PLUTO SUN
FEEDBACK
We’ll be developing content based on your valuable feedback. Use the form below to tell us what you think and what you’d like to see more (or less) of. Or email evie@pen-life.co.uk. We’ll select an entry at random who will win £25 in M&S vouchers. YOUR COMMENT: ...................................................................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................................................................................... .............................................................................................................................................................................. .............................................................................................................................................................................. ...................................................................................................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................................................................................... NAME:....................................................................................................... .............................................................................. ADDRESS:....................................................................................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................................................................................................... EMAIL: .......................................................................................................................................................................................
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OUR GUEST HOUSE
Making room for the great businesses and individuals we work alongside
With almost a million people in the UK living with dementia and with currently no cure for this disease, we as a society need to adapt almost everything we do in order to allow people with dementia to remain an active part of our communities. Dementia is a complex disease and we all need to know strategies which will allow us to communicate with and support people with dementia and to enable them to live well for as long as they can. I was a Police Officer for 27 years with the British Transport Police when I first became aware of how important it is to create Dementia Friendly Communities. With an increasing amount of people with dementia using the railway we needed to know the most effective way of helping those who became lost or confused. As police officers we had no training to help us deal with such situations, so every encounter was very time consuming and distressing for the confused person.
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On one occasion a man arrived off a train in York, he had no ID, didn’t know where he was travelling to or where he had come from. We were eventually able to establish he was from Edinburgh and got him back home safely, but this is one example of many that I came across. I decided to make York railway station a dementia friendly community, training all of the Police and Rail staff to be dementia friends and encouraging the railways to offer supported journeys for people living with dementia. I loved this work and realised this was where my passion lay! I left the Police and began working for Dementia Forward, in my opinion the best dementia charity there is. We are the leading North Yorkshire Charity for dementia supporting around 4000 people in our communities. We help families through the chaos and fear that normally comes with a diagnosis. Our team of highly qualified support advisors and admiral nurses work with families to offer practical and emotional support, education, signposting, coping strategies and an optimism that for many people with dementia, it is possible to live well for a long time if you have the right support. We have a confidential helpline where you can speak to someone if you have any concerns or just need some friendly reassurance. We stay with you for your entire dementia journey, supporting you through the ever-changing challenges you face when living with this disease. Dementia touches every part of our society so contact us if you need any family support or advice. Is your business dementia friendly? People with dementia still want to use services and buy products. I offer workplace training that could help your business in this area. Finally a massive thanks to PenLife for making us your ‘Charity of the Year’. We look forward to working with you over the coming months!
WHAT OUR QUOTE OF CLIENTS ARE THE MONTH SAYING: “If I had any concerns or worries they would be answered in a matter of fact way at a level that I could understand.”
“Everyday is a bank account, and time is our currency. No one is rich, no one is poor, we’ve got 24 hours each.” - CHRISTOPHER RICE
COMPETITION TIME! For our PenLife 2020 calendars we want it to be great. We live in God’s own County. So here’s what we’re going to do. Throughout 2019, send us your seasonal Yorkshire photos and we’ll run a competition – Countryfile style – where we’ll select your photos to feature in the 2020 Calendar. The entries selected for the Calendar will win prizes. Please email your photographs, in either JPEG or PNG format, to Nora at eleanor@pen-life.co.uk. Sending us your photograph in this format will help us ensure your image is reproduced at a high enough quality - should your entry be selected. If you are unable to provide your photograph in this way, please post a hard copy to us (Calendar Competition, 3 Tudor Court, Opus Avenue, York, YO26 6RS) and we will endeavour to do the best we can to make it printable.
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AROUND THE WORLD UK Recent data suggests the economy performed poorly in the fourth quarter. GDP growth in September–November was the slowest in six months on the back of a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, retail sales were limp in the final quarter, which came against a backdrop of worsening consumer sentiment amid rising Brexit uncertainty.
EU Downbeat data continues to ebb in surrounding the Eurozone economy, suggesting that a slower growth path remains in play after a solid 2017. A downturn in the industrial sector in the third quarter due to supply-side constraints and tepid demand appears to have persisted into the fourth quarter, with industrial production contracting at the sharpest pace in over two years in November.
USA Although economic growth likely remained robust in the last quarter of 2018, again supported by strong consumer spending thanks to rising wage growth and stellar labour market gains, all available signs point to a significant loss of momentum at the end of the quarter and into Q1 2019.
Russia According to a preliminary estimate, growth picked up notably in 2018, hitting a six-year high. The result was due in part to booming construction activity as well as an improvement in the external sector. Elsewhere economic data has been more downbeat. Retails sales growth slid in Q4 amid souring consumer confidence and a rising unemployment rate, while industrial activity waned throughout the quarter after a solid October. Japan The economy likely rebounded in the fourth quarter following the third quarter’s dismal performance when a series of natural disasters severely disrupted economic activity. Industrial production was much stronger in October and November than the Q3 average, mainly due to solid domestic demand. Moreover, the unemployment rate likely remained at low levels in Q4, supporting private consumption.
PenLife Associates Ltd, 3 Tudor Court, Opus Avenue, York, YO26 6RS Tel: 01904 661140 Email: office@pen-life.co.uk Registered in England No: 2390548. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Authorisation Number 212972.