EXTRACT TRANSPORT EDITION
WELCOME TO EXTRACT
TRANSPORT EDITION 03 INDUSTRY NEWS Are transport solutions in emerging nations leap-frogging the developed world?
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CONSUMER INSIGHT We examine our insatiable desire to keep on the move
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Studio Soundbites A look at the highs and lows of travelling to the PDD studio
FUTURE PERSONA Moving on - taking our hands off the wheel in 2030
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15 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION Choices - getting there faster, slower or in better shape?
01/02
INTRO
CMF TRENDS Lighting trends that cross boundaries into transportation
Hello Welcome to Extract, the transport edition, where globalisation, urbanisation and demographics steer the way we’re going to be living our lives in the future. As megacities, populations and markets grow and change there has never before been such a strong consumer desire to travel. Holidays are the number one global luxury, with 75 million people taking globally outbound flights across the world in 2011. So while transport infrastructures are built, grown and retrofitted, this edition of Extract aims to present a flavour of future travel experiences by looking at them from different points of departure. We describe how new and innovative transport solutions in emerging markets have the potential to nimbly advance ahead of those in more developed nations. We examine how, despite global economic troubles, we are jetting off more than we ever have before. We have taken a look at the future and have created a snapshot of 2030, a time when we will have finally got over our break-up with our beloved cars and will be able to maintain seamless contact with the important individuals in our lives. Technology never ceases to amaze us especially when it meets real needs, so we have highlighted some of the most thought-provoking and exciting key developments. And finally, as we’re aware of the fast-paced nature of transport design we’ve picked our key Colour Material and Finish (CMF) trends in lighting that we think will translate well from contemporary interiors, fashion and design to enhance transport and the urban environment. We hope you have a good trip. PDD
INDUSTRY NEWS
EMERGING MARKETS MOVING FAST Emerging markets are leaping ahead of the mature ones... Last year the world’s vehicle population surpassed the one billion mark. Although the US remains the most populous, with nearly 240 million units, China is catching up quickly. The number of cars in China rose by 27.5 per cent, accounting for half of the global growth. With world population expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, with 70% living in megacities - how will countries cope with the impact on public and private transportation? Markets with established infrastructures are already struggling under the strain of modernising railroads, motorways, airports and shipping facilities that were designed to handle far fewer people and far less traffic. For emerging markets, modernisation doesn’t necessarily require retrofitting or refurbishing older infastructure, because there simply isn’t as much deeply embedded infastructure to change. Consequently, such markets have more flexibility in adopting newer technologies, from mobile internet to Maglev trains. In the US and Europe, Maglev trains remain a shiny possibility, whilst in Shanghai they’re a reality. As the BRIC’s gain and entertain a wider global audience, including hosting major sporting events such as the Olympics and FIFA World Cup, there’s even more intiative to invest in innovative transport systems and clean energy.
03/04
INDUSTRY NEWS
China's Super-Sized buses As the number of cars increases on China’s roads, authorities are hoping to implement the `Youngman JNP6250G’ bus – reportedly the largest in the world. Carrying 300 passengers at a time, it aims to save larger city infrastructures and lower congestion levels.
GETTING CONNECTED Wi-Fi will be available on Beijing buses and Bangalore’s new Metro Rail. Techinasia.com, October 2011
Springwise, January 2012
Luxury transport Annual yacht sales in Brazil have grown 30 per cent annually since 2008. sporting a new infastructure Brazil to invest US$17 billion in public transport for World Cup. Latin America News, May 201
Canadian business, August 2011
Image credits - clockwise from top left: Youngman automobile group, PDD, Feadship and Mike Vondan Flickr creative commons.
Emerging market countries will spend an estimated $6 trillion over the next three years to meet the basic needs of their citizens. 32% of that will be devoted to transport and logisitics. Merrill Lynch Global Research, May 2011
Other 10%
Construction 5%
Energy and Power 23%
Housing 3%
Water and Environment 27%
Transportation and logistics 32%
Image credits - PDD
WHAT WOULD YOU PAY? Public transport customers in Singapore help determine the new ticket pricing structures.
$3.3 billion The amount of car sharing revenue to be generated in North America by 2016 Frost & Sullivan, August 2011
Channel News Asia, May 2012
ASIA-PACIFIC TO BECOME WORLD’S LARGEST COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT MARKET Asia-Pacific will account for 34% of new aircraft sales, compared to 22% for both North America and Europe. Market Watch, September 2011
collaborating for safety Volkswagen takes crowdsourcing to another level in China with the ‘people car concept’ where web users (33 million of them!) input ideas for the car of the future. The resulting concepts, Hover Car, Music Car and the Smart Key, reflect consumers’ desire for safer, connected cars able to navigate overcrowded roads with ease. Car Design News, May 2012
online conferencing saves money and time Cisco trimmed its travel budget by $500 million using conferencing software. AMD executive Linda Starr reduced her annual air miles from 1,000,000 to 100,000. Megameeting.com, March 2012
air apparent As China relaxes its stringent air space laws, the number of personal and business aircraft will likely double in the next year. National Aviation Authority, Financial Times, May 2012
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INDUSTRY NEWS
Image credits - clockwise from top left: EZ - Link, Cisco, Dyler pillar, Flickr creative commons and Volkswagen
Bike sharing schemes riding to new highs2012 Bike Sharing blog, January 2012
38,000 SUBSCRIBERS 550 BIKES AVAILABLE
209,000 SUBSCRIBERS
146,000 SUBSCRIBERS
6,000 BIKES AVAILABLE 20,000 BIKES AVAILABLE
120,000 SUBSCRIBERS
Paris
London
6,000 BIKES AVAILABLE
Barcelona
Image credits - PDD
Dublin
THE FUTURE OF TRAVEL, UP IN THE AIR
07/08
CONSUMER INSIGHT
We’re travelling more than ever. According to the World Travel Monitor there were 75 million outbound flights in 2011, an increase of 5%. Despite the recession, people still view holidays as their number one luxury purchase. Likewise, spending on travel and tourism is expected to rise by 5% per year, fuelled in part by the rising middle class in populous emerging markets such as India, China and Brazil.
How is the airline industry handling the changing needs of consumers?
The world of commercial air travel has changed dramatically since the early 1940s and 50s when it was seen as a glamorous mode of transport reserved for the rich and famous. As the industry grew, costs came down, making air travel more affordable for the masses. More recently, low-cost airlines such as Ryanair, BMI and Easyjet made travel even more affordable, and opened up tourism to more destinations. Consumers’ new cost-driven mindset was further aided by the online travel booking industry, making travel agents superfluous as people researched and compared travel options and costs on their own.
Although the glory days of glamorous air-travel may be over, some airlines are trying to recapture that nostalgia, while others look for ways to make the experience “special”. As consumers expect more for their money, airlines are striving to customise the intransit experience, providing tailored food menus and entertainment via the seatback screen.Airlines are also adapting their entertainment infrastructure to fit customers’ needs, allowing passengers to plug in their own media devices.To cater to customers’ desire for social interactions, airlines are looking into safe and low-cost ways to keep customers connected.
09/10
CONSUMER INSIGHT
Virgin’s new Airbus A330-300 aircraft flying on London to New York routes allows customers to use their phones at cruising altitude. More airlines are following Lufthansa’s lead, offering wireless systems on flights. Virgin aims to encourage inflight, face-to-face socialising by serving refreshments around a long, glowing bar on its newly-designed Airbus A330 and Boeing 787-900 aircraft. Of course, a big factor of passenger dissatisfaction is the airport experience, which is often crippled by confusing navigation, long queues, and unfriendly staff. Hoping to provide an
enjoyable, seamless passenger experience from airport to airplane, airlines are buying their own terminals. Being able to create a 360 degree experience, from self-service checkin to locating luggage via GPS tags, allows airlines complete control over their brand image.
What about the future of air travel? Certainly, there will be advances in technology that people travel faster, but as people travel further and farther afield, the time spent “up in the air” presents an interesting opportunity. Rather than being viewed as ‘dead time’, could airlines provide a valuable experience, such as enabling passengers to subconsciously learn
Mandarin whilst napping, do a cookery course in a ‘Holodeck’-style simulation, or have the best quality sleep before disembarking?
Travel in emerging markets •
Global demand for travel will continue to increase in the coming years, with Asia spending 4% more and Latin America 6%. Source: IPK
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Thanks to an improving economy, out-bound flights increased by 13% in Russia in 2011. Source: IPK
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India’s online travel sector is booming, valued at $5bn in 2010 and growing at 50% a year. Source: Internet & Mobile Association of India
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More than 12m Indians visited other countries in 2010, spending $11bn on the road. Source: Bangkok-based Pacific Asia Travel Association
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1 in 7 plane journeys will be related in some way to China by 2015. Source: IATA
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Asia will represent one third of travel spending by 2020 – up from 21% today. Source: Oxford Economics
Image credits (left page): Virgin atlantic, Quantas, (Right page) Canopy & Stars, Living architecture.
UK HOTSPOT
Holidaying in our own back garden The term ‘Staycation’ coined during the 2008 global financial crisis gave comfort to those with limited budgets, making it cool to take advantage of the broad choice of home-stay holidays. A combination of stretched budgets and potential Olympic-induced travel hassle in 2012 encouraged UK consumers to look the UK for their ‘worlds away’ experience. As the UK attempts to shake-off its old-fashioned seaside holiday reputation, a number of new travel companies are catering for travellers hungry for culture and new experiences, but operating on a limited budget. Living Architecture’s thoughtfully designed, experiential self-catering offerings, such as the Shingle House in Kent gives visitors a unique experience in a secluded location.
Similarly, a Room for London plays on the experiential properties of design giving tourists the opportunity to have a once-in-alifetime stay in a boat adjacent to the Thames, above the iconic Southbank Centre. For more outdoors-y retreats, companies such as Canopy and Stars and Vintage Vacations on the Isle of Wight provide quirky accommodation in out-of-theway locations. Visitors can enjoy tree-top bathtubs, woodcutter’s cottages, log cabins and yurts in the peaceful (but easily-accessible) wilderness.
FUTURE PERSONA: LIU
driving changes in 2030? 80-90% of road accidents are a result of human error. Car manufacturers are keen to integrate technology that decreases accidents by providing drivers with safetycritical information, such as Kia C’eed’s lane departure warning system and Audi’s Traffic Jam Assistant. It’s not surprising that some companies are looking to remove the driver entirely. Google’s driverless car has been cruising the highways of Nevada, California and Florida since 2012, when automated vehicles became legal.
About Personas: Personas offer a creative way of exploring the needs of future consumers. Thinking about Liu, how could your products and designs be developed to expand the world she lives in?
THE PE RSONA : LIU
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Hi, I’m L iu! I’m 2 9 and I am a R egional M a n a for a glo ger bal nano -tech firm I’m alwa . ys on the go, so I try to use every mo ment to stay on to p of thing s. I want to get the most out of every experien ce wheth er partyin with frien g ds or doin g some last minu te work in the car! My motto is to live life to the fullest . I don’t care how to help m things wo e have a rk; I just good tim trust that e! is it g Liu is a yo
ung wom
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As the popularity of car sharing schemes increases and driverless cars become a viable mode of transport, what could our “driving” experience be like in 2030?
oing
an living in Shang hai, she… • Works hard at h er career • Thrive and is no s on the fr t yet think eedom to • Uses so ing of sett discover cial media ling down n ew place to co-ord her identi s and pe inate her ople ty li fe style and • Trusts construct technolog y to make • Wants her life b special a etter nd perso nal experi ences
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FUTURE PERSONA
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“I love not having to interact with the car or be responsible for operating it. It leaves my time free for so much other more interesting things, like catching up with friends online or finishing a presentation for work!”
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“I don’t have the time or desire to own a car. This sharing scheme is much better. I can just order it and when it arrives it automatically recognises me and seamlessly installs my personal driving settings – it’s like a personal taxi!”
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“I’m always buying robotic gadgets for the kitchen; I don’t have time to cook.”
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“My car is constantly scanning other drivers in my vicinity, to see if my friends or any mutual friends are nearby or are going to the same place. It can be a fun way to meet new people.”
“My friends and I are always trying to find the latest cocktail bar. It’s great as no one has to be the ‘designated driver’ on a night out… we can all enjoy ourselves!”
FUTURE CONCEPTS FOR LIU Image credits: PDD
STUDIO SOUNDBITES
the daily commute to pdd Planes, trains, and automobiles...plus bicycles, motorbikes, and the onfoot, we get to work a multitude of ways. So far, no one arrives by boat or cable car...
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I walk to work from Barons Court. I don’t want to be a show off about it though. It takes 5 minutes to cycle it, but it’s not a long enough trip, I like to have the time to zone-out after work.
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STUDIO SOUNDBITES
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I like to cycle because it gives me some blank time where I don’t have to think about home or work.
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For me the best improvements on the tube would be a more efficient and streamlined service alongside more space and access to 3G!
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The main benefits of cycling are that it’s cheap and easier. It can be hard in the winter when it’s really cold but it’s worth it to be in control and not beholden to delays.
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I generally drive into work. I have friends scattered all over the place so it gives me the freedom to see them whenever I like. I like to have my own space and I like that I can take whatever I want to work without thinking about it.
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TECH & INNOVATION
EFFICIENCY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT AS THE TRANSPORT INDUSTRY STRIVES TO BE MORE SUSTAINABLE, CONVENIENT AND COMPETITIVE. ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING EADS and GKN’s new Additive Layer Manufacture, developed for primary use in aerospace components, is blurring the boundary between rapid prototyping and rapid manufacture. Unlike traditional milling, components can be designed closer to the pure engineering considerations. Early indications are that this could reduce manufacturing waste by 90% and produce parts with a lifetime of efficiency gains to pass onto the aircraft.
THE NEW BIG RED BUS London’s new bus has launched, it is a serial hybrid range extender and the figures show promising economy. During tests the new vehicle had considerably more efficient fuel consumption and emitted less than half of the CO2 and under half of the NOx emitted by a current diesel bus. Only time will tell if this new bus can achieve the same iconic status as the old Routemaster. Nevertheless, if it is able to live as long, its efficiency will certainly justify its high purchase price of £1.4million.
THE NEED FOR SPEED The Scramjet (visualisation by spaceworks, left) has the potential for significant reduction in journey times. In May 2012, NASA and partners made significant progress testing their Hypersonic International Flight Research Experiment. The test achieved a speed of Mach 8, nearly ten times faster than current airliners. Further testing has not been as successful, but the potential to reduce journey times so significantly still remains. Although a triumph in technology development, the Concorde has already taught us a valuable lesson that cost, safety and lack of demand prevents mainstream adoption. 15/16
TECH AND INNOVATION
HEAVY INNOVATION Progress in safety, comfort and entertainment has made cars heavy. Conventional internal combustion powered cars benefit from being lightweight, which is even more of an asset for the new breed of hybrid and electric cars. Composites, the use of aluminium and lightweight materials contribute to these lighter versions of cars, but a further step in weight reduction could come from reducing the amount of material supporting ancillary features.
787 BOEING DREAMLINER
The long awaited Dreamliner is no bigger and no faster than 50-year-old airliners. However it is certainly more efficient in construction and use. The 787 is 50% composite and has only 10,000 of the 1 million holes drilled in the aluminium fuselage of the 747 Jumbo. Plus, fuel costs are airlines’ second largest expense after labour and the Dreamliner is attracting orders by offering 20% more fuel efficiency than its competitors, associated with 20% fewer emissions.
GO SLOW As for recurrent themes, if it is not flying cars it is airships. Besides the commercial applications, airships can lift large and awkward structures to many inaccessible places, which can help building infrastructure to exploit natural resources. Equally, airships can hang around discreetly for long periods of time aiding military observation. So, if you can’t go fast, then go slowly but very comfortably in an airship! Image credits (left to right): EADS innovation works, TFL, Space works, Information source- Wikipedia, PDD, Casas de volar Flickr creative commons and Northrop Grumman.
YELLOW LIGHT
Automotive interiors are set to change with the rise of autonomous technology. With no emphasis on driver comfort, interiors will become an extension of our homes and personalities. Comfort and interaction will become sought-after features and the type of lighting used will have a profound affect on the mood of passengers. Glass exteriors will use yellow light to create a welcoming feeling to external viewers. Backlit, soft and semi-translucent materials will produce a warm and tranquil glow throughout the interior, creating sociable areas for conversation and relaxing with other passengers. Soft yellow light mixed with the use of natural materials such as wood also enhances the product’s outward eco aesthetic, a requirement that will be high on all consumers’ wish lists.
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CMF
COLOUR/MATERIAL/FINISH
INTERESTING TRENDS FOR 2012/13 Image credits: Philips (left page) Stoo(l) amp, Erwin Zwiers (right page from top) Francisco Gomez paz, Nitikipen, Juvelle and Luke Kelly.
NEON LIGHT Neon lighting is back, but this time in a more mature and reserved way. Designers are using neon lighting to highlight edges and create bold, layered surfaces that produce unique results. As aircraft companies search for new ways to differentiate their services and prove to consumers that they’re worth their premium price tag, more and more we are seeing bold lighting used to evoke calmness or excitement. Future aircraft interiors will embrace the trend of neon lighting. Beautifully detailed personal spaces will be created through the subtle use of neon colour light, and natural materials like wood, which will produce a personal, hotellounge feel throughout the cabin.
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CMF
WHITE LIGHT
Trust, simple and healthy are not words that first spring to mind when considering public transport but this will change as designers continue to develop concepts that challenge the norm. The use of white or pure light will create an open and spacious feeling in small, enclosed areas such as train carriages. Replicating natural light is also a bonus for commuters who may feel disconnected and claustrophobic in cramped situations. Reflecting this white light off pale coloured, glossy surfaces increases the perceived size of an area, enhancing the sense of clean simplicity and maybe even rewarding passengers with a new sense of trust in public transport.
Image credits (left page): Clockwise.Dennis parrent, Mary Katrntzou, Miami Airport, David Batchelor and Brice Bischoff (right page): Tadao Ando, Suga Atelier, Daniel Rybakken, Maxim Maximovich and 0s and Oos.
PDD is a product and service design innovation consultancy. Our multi-disciplinary team combines insight, trends, strategy, design, engineering, prototyping and production management to create exciting solutions to the complex challenges our clients face in a rapidly changing world. Leveraging our experience across medical, consumer, transport, FMCG, service, communication and industrial sectors, we’re able to spark innovation through the cross-fertilisation of ideas of different sectors. PDD would like to thank all the contributors that made this possible; Rosie Brodhurst-Hooper, Jamie Buckley, Matt Candy, Tim Court, Alex Crook, Jon Freeman, Roger Gray, Maeve Keane, Tristram Keech, Heather McQuaid, David Riley, Milly Roberts and also all the kind companies that allowed us to use their images as part of this issue. You can learn more about PDD on our website www.pdd.co.uk
NEXT ISSUE We hope that you have enjoyed the ride (are there any more transport puns we have missed out?) Keep your eye out for our next issue, which will be all things related to Personal Care...
past issues In the meantime please contact us if you would like to take a look at any of our past issues
Personal Care This edition looks at how new products and (future) technologies enable real-time monitoring, evaluation and predictions as well as how brands are attempting to engage peoples’ emotions.
Consumer electronics This edition looks at how peoples relationships with consumer electronics will evolve and adapt in the future.
EXTRACT CONSUMER ELECTRONICS EDITION
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