Power in Asia: six surprising facts

Lowy InstItute JACK SATO AND SUSANNAH PATTON

This year’s Lowy institute Asia Power index – an annual measure and analysis of each country’s resources and influence in the region – uncovered a number of unexpected findings.

WHICH COUNTRIES IN THE REGION ARE

MOST INTERESTED IN JAPAN ONLINE?

Japan maintained its position as the most frequently searched Asia Power index country via online search engines in other Asia Power index countries. The trend was most pronounced in southeast and East Asia, where it was the most searched country among ten of the 14 countries, including Cambodia, China, south Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. however, this was not the case in south Asia, where, generally, india or the United states was the most searched nation. Consistently high online search interest in Japan is one of 15 indicators used to calculate Cultural influence in the Asia Power index and is a proxy reflection of Japan’s soft power and attractiveness in Asia.

THAILAND LOST 85 PER CENT OF ITS TOURISTS DURING THE PANDEMIC:

While traditionally one of Thailand’s strongest indicators, in 2020, the total number of foreign tourists from other Asia Power index countries dropped from nearly 33 million in 2019 to five million in 2020 due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. This included a loss of more than one million tourists from india, Japan, Laos, south Korea, Malaysia and singapore, and nearly 11 million from China. When considering all tourists, it’s even more pronounced – dropping from nearly 40 million to under seven million. This trend continued in 2021, when the number of tourists dropped to less than half a million. All countries lost tourism revenue during the pandemic, but our data shows the uneven impact, with tourism accounting for around 10 per cent of Thailand’s GDP in 2019.

IN 2022, THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL FLIGHT ROUTES FROM BEIJING HALVED: One of the more noticeable changes in the 2023 Asia Power index is the large loss of points for many nations in the connectivity submeasure. Of these, it’s most noticeable in the travel hubs indicator. Measured in July 2022, the number of international flight routes declined for 16 Asia Power index countries, including doubledigit loses for cities Tokyo, seoul, Kuala Lumpur, Moscow, Taipei, Bangkok and New York. While flight routes from many countries were cancelled in 2022, this was most extreme in China, with flight routes halving to 53 due to its protracted lockdowns and border closures. China also suf- fered large losses in other connectivity indicators, including those related to global trade and investment flows, which affected its overall Economic Capability and power scores.

CHINA’S SHARE OF INVESTMENT IN BRUNEI REACHED 94 PER CENT: Following limited investment by Japan in Brunei in recent years, the share of capital investment from China among Asia Power index countries over the ten-year period 2013–21 soared above 90 per cent. Almost all this investment, worth more than Us$13.5 billion, came from one joint petrochemical project. While this is an extreme case, the overall trend in the region suggests that China is becoming a more important source of investment compared to Japan. since the first edition of the Asia Power index in 2018, the average share of Japanese investment across the region has dropped from roughly 12 per cent to ten per cent. By contrast, Chinese investment has increased from 16 per cent to 22 per cent.

THE UNITED STATES WAS THE TOP BILATERAL DEFENCE TRAINING PARTNER FOR HALF OF THE INDEX NATIONS: The United states is the most important bilateral military training partner for Australia, Bangladesh, Japan, south Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, singapore, Taiwan and Thailand, as measured by the number of combined trainings in 2021. Notably, the United states accounted for a quarter of Australian joint trainings, around 80 per cent of both Japan and south Korea’s, and more than half of the Philippines. This highlights the preeminent role the United states plays as a defence partner in the region, a key source of relative Us advantage.

MORE THAN A THIRD OF JAPAN’S BILATERAL DIPLOMATIC DIALOGUES

WERE WITH THE UNITED STATES: This edition of the Asia Power index includes new data, tracking the extent of high-level diplomatic engagement among index countries in 2021. Japan and the United states met more frequently than any other pair of Asia Power index countries. Japan held ten meetings with the United states out of a total of 27 meetings tracked. These included two 2+2 meetings, four foreign ministerial-level meetings, and four at the leader level. The next most common pairings were between south Korea and both China and the United states – six each –and five between Australia and the United states. in addition, China met with more than three-quarters of the index countries, while the United states met with less than a third. This data highlights that deep partnerships with select allied countries are a hallmark of Us–Asia strategy, in contrast to China, which prioritises shallower relationships with a larger number of partners.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden pledged “any and all needed assistance” to Turkey in remarks on Monday. however, one can be sure the Biden administration will seek to exploit the disaster to press its geopolitical interests against Ankara, in particular, over the war against Russia.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government has stood in the way of the rapid accession of Finland and sweden into the NATO military alliance, which Turkey has been a member of since 1952. Turkey maintains strong economic and military ties with Russia, and Erdoğan has sought to mediate the conflict in Ukraine, even as the Us and the imperialist powers in Europe press forward with an escalation which threatens a catastrophic nuclear war. Erdoğan survived a military coup attempt in 2016 which bore the hallmarks of a plot hatched in Washington, and the Us maintains a military alliance with Kurdish nationalist forces in syria and iraq which Turkey deems terrorist organizations.

Despite these differences, Erdoğan and his predecessors have played a key role in the imperialist interventions in the Middle East, including in syria, where it has also supported anti-Assad islamist groups in the civil war

Ultimately the earthquake disaster exposes the hypocrisy of American imperialism and explodes the narrative that the Us intervenes around the world to defend “human rights.” American imperialism is the greatest mass murderer in the world today, using its military might to trample on human rights and human life wherever it trods.

The wars it has waged since the 1990s, from iraq and the Balkans to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Yemen, syria and somalia have killed millions, displaced tens of millions and left entire societies defenseless against the privations of natural disasters. These wars have metastasized into an open war against Russia, even as Us imperialism prepares further escalation of its murderous interventions in the Middle East, with preparations for war against iran and throughout the region.

The Us sanctions on syria must be lifted immediately, and its occupation and regime change operations must end. This must be combined with the mobilization of social resources to provide emergency relief and rebuild infrastructures on a scientific basis which will protect the population from earthquakes, paid for with the enormous sums which are spent on war and funneled into the bank accounts of the rich. such a progressive program requires the building of a working class movement against war and against the capitalist system.

Turkey-Syria earthquake: Are Syrian victims being overlooked?

border crossing at Bab al-hawa, a lifeline to syria that has been closed amid significant damage, and other difficulties. in syria’s regime-controlled areas, such as Aleppo and hama, the syrian government is leading the response. in oppositionheld areas, the situation is more complicated.

Although the epicentre was in southern Turkey, the earthquake has had devastating effects across northwestern syria where infrastructure has been severely weakened since the 2011 war broke out, with opposition-controlled areas bearing the brunt of the atrocities. This, combined with the syrian government’s war tactics - which have involved the destruction of civilian infrastructure in opposition-held regions - has left these areas in a state of extreme vulnerability. Facing a governance void, people there have relied heavily on crossborder aid from Turkey as the war has dragged on.

AT precisely 1:25am UK time, i received a WhatsApp message from my brother, who resides in Antakya, Turkey, on our family group chat, reading: “My home has gone.” This was quickly followed by a message from our mother, who resides in the same city, reading: “All walls in our flat were destroyed.” i was soon inundated with communications from both Turkey and northwestern syria about an earthquake that had taken thousands of lives and homes. it was a miracle that my parents and brother were able to escape the destruction that befell Antakya, leaving buildings in the city crumbling like paper boxes.

At first, i thought it was all a dream. it took me hours to comprehend the magnitude of the disaster. i struggled to come to terms with the reality that these very same vulnerable people, who had already endured 12 years of conflict, were now being affected by a natural disaster of a scale that had not been seen in decades. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake began at 4:17am local time in Turkey, and was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. The epicentre was around 20 kilometres deep, and the quake affected a large swath of southern Turkey and northwestern syria, including hatay, Gaziantep, Kilis, Aleppo and idlib, among other areas.

The number of deaths has been climbing by the hour and has already surpassed 7,000. i believe this number will continue to rise significantly, as many people remain unaccounted for. in Turkey alone, more than 5,600 buildings have been destroyed.

RESCUE MISSIONS: As rescue missions in Turkey began on Monday, i heard from people in hatay that heavy equipment did not arrive until Tuesday morning. While the ongoing rescue missions have surely saved many lives, with thousands of people being extracted from the rubble, many more remain trapped beneath collapsed buildings, waiting for help. in syria, the White helmets have been actively engaged in rescue missions in opposition-controlled areas, yet their resources are severely limited. Many NGOs have initiated large-scale fundraising campaigns, including the Union of Medical Care and Relief Organizations, the Molham Team and the syrian American Medical society, among others.

But the response is threatened by the status of the Turkish syrians have already endured more than a decade of conflict, and they are now faced with the additional tragedy of this earthquake. Many syrians have already suffered a great deal, working hard to re-establish their lives in northwestern syria or in Turkey. Now, they find themselves badly affected by this disaster - and yet, their suffering might be overlooked due to the chronicity of the conflict and the vast scale of the earthquake in southern Turkey. i can only hope that the world does not again turn a blind eye to syria’s victims, and instead extends them the same support offered to victims in Turkey.

The situation for those in government-controlled areas of northwestern syria, however, is not much better. The whole country has been devastated by the conflict, and the syrian government is internationally isolated amid allegations of war crimes, including the use of chemical weapons, resulting in wide-ranging economic and political sanctions. These have had drastic effects on the socioeconomic status of ordinary people, pushing many further into poverty. The earthquake, which devastated poorly constructed dwellings, will only exacerbate these challenges.

PRESSING NEEDS: At present, the most pressing needs for affected people in northwestern syria include support for rescue missions, emergency shelter and food relief, medical supplies, and diesel to ensure generators can function and provide basic electricity for hospitals.

While the Turkish government’s capacity and the influx of international aid will bolster rescue operations in Turkey, this scenario is unlikely to be replicated in northwestern syria in the near future. This is due to the protracted nature of the conflict, the governance vacuum in opposition-controlled areas, and the politicisation and manipulation of humanitarian assistance by the syrian government in areas it controls.

None of this, however, should be used as an excuse to disregard the plight of syrians affected by the earthquake. The international community must find ways to provide support to all affected regions of northwestern syria, such as by engaging with the highly experienced NGOs that have been operating there for the past 12 years. Unfortunately, certain donors remain hesitant to do so.

Dr Abdulkarim Ekzayez is a Syrian medical doctor and health system expert. He serves as a senior research associate with King’s College London, where he leads a large project on strengthening the health system in Syria. He is also the general secretary of the Syrian British Medical Society, a member of the Syria Resource Group, and a trustee of the Amna organisation.