Dr Statz
John Boyce cracks the code
Promising Camelot should continue to court admirers E uropean breeding has many things to be pleased about at the start of 2018, none more so than the success of runners by some of its stallions with stouter pedigrees.. The list of sires that have been represented by five or more stakes winners in Europe this year contains a fair representation that can get topclass runners at a mile and a quarter and beyond. Moreover, there are plenty of young up-and-coming stallions whose stock has the potential to get Classic and Group 1 winners in our longer races. Last year, Frankel’s first three-yearolds excited everyone, as did – albeit to a lesser extent – Nathaniel. This year, another has put his hand up as a potential superstar and that is Camelot. Aidan O’Brien’s top-class Montjeu colt just failed to become the first since Nijinsky to land the Triple Crown. But just like Frankel, who ultimately deserved it, Camelot’s coronation looks like it’s running ahead of the facts, convincing as they may be at this early stages. Make no mistake, Camelot’s early success could easily be evidence of a new superstar stallion. But he will need to reach certain milestones at specific times to provide ultimate proof of his place among the very best. In the past 30 years, Frankel has set the standards for what’s possible after a stallion’s first two years with runners. For instance, he sired 20 stakes winners, compared to Camelot’s current score of eight. In fact, Camelot has 14 sires to pass to reach that particular pinnacle. Then there is the far more important metric of percentage of stakes winners to runners. After two years Frankel’s score was up to an impressive 15.6%, well ahead of Dubawi and Sea The Stars, who’d both managed 10.8% at the end of year two. Camelot’s current score is 7.4% and this is likely to increase further as his first three-year-olds continue to improve through the remainder of the year. However, his second-crop two-year-olds are likely to act as an anchor on this score. In terms of brilliant racehorses, Frankel’s top ten horses had produced an average Timeform rating of 118.9 at the end of year two – the best of any stallion in recent years. The next three sires on this list give
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CAMELOT’S BLACK-TYPE HORSES Form
TFR
Name
YOB
Sex
Dam
Broodmare Sire
MaxWD
G1w
119
LATROBE
2015
C
QUESTION TIMES WLRp
SHAMARDAL
12
G1w
112
ATHENA
2015
F
CHERRY HINTON G3p
GREEN DESERT
10
G2w
112
FIGHTING IRISH
2015
C
QUIXOTIC UR
PIVOTAL
6
G3wG1p
121
HUNTING HORN
2015
C
MORA BAI UR
INDIAN RIDGE
10
G3w
111
WAIT FOREVER
2015
C
MOUNT MCLEOD W
HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR
9
G3w
108
POLLARA
2015
F
BROOKLYN’S STORM W
STORM CAT
12
LRwG2p
108
ALOUNAK
2015
C
AWE STRUCK UR
RAIL LINK
11
LRw
104
NATURALLY HIGH
2015
C
JUST LITTLE G3wG2p
GRAND SLAM
10
LRw
101
ARTHUR KITT
2016
C
CEILING KITTY G2w
RED CLUBS
7
WG2p
105
ALHADAB
2015
C
GRACE LADY G2w
MUHTATHIR
8
WG3p
103
KING OF CAMELOT
2015
C
MISS EMMA MAY W
HAWK WING
8
WG3p
97
STELLA DI CAMELOT
2015
F
STAR FORCE W
BLU AIR FORCE
8
LRp
106
LUCIUS TIBERIUS
2015
C
KEEGSQUAW LRw
STREET CRY
10
LRp
97
WHIRLING DERVISH
2015
C
SYNERGY G3w
VICTORY NOTE
9
G3p
105
AMAZING LIPS
2015
F
ATHENAIRE UP
DUKE OF MARMALADE
-
you a fair indication of how good this score is – Montjeu 118.2, Galileo 117.8 and Dubawi 117.3. The task facing Camelot is a stiff one. His current top-ten average is 110.7, even after Latrobe’s Irish Derby success, of which Timeform has taken a conservative view, rating him 119p. So, Camelot’s top ten runners by Timeform ratings – whoever they may be at the end of the year – will need to improve by 8.2lb each to match Frankel. However, Camelot doesn’t need to
Camelot: next big thing?
match Frankel’s meteoric trajectory. After all, the great Galileo didn’t produce a set of ten runners better than all other sires until the end of year six and his top ten have been unsurpassed since. Moreover, Galileo and Montjeu, Camelot’s sire, had profiles not dissimilar to Camelot midway through their second years. One thing in Camelot’s favour is the fact that he’s covered highquality books in his first four years at stud and, unlike many so-called commercial sires, there has been little fall off in quality between his first and fourth crops. Broadly speaking, he’s been afforded the same opportunities as his great sire and not much worse than Galileo. So far, Camelot has nine stakes winners (7.4%) including two Group 1 winners in Latrobe and the recent Belmont Oaks heroine Athena. That ratio is well behind what his mares have produced with other sires (10.7%) at this early stage. And that’s to be expected of sires that get latedeveloping stock. Galileo was on 7.3% stakes winners from mares that produced 10% with other sires at the end of his second year. At the same stage, Montjeu had sired 9.2% stakes winners from mares that produced 9.7% with other sires. What really needs to be appreciated is that we have another stallion that can sire high-class runners beyond a mile and a quarter. Only Galileo, Sea The Stars and Teofilo currently have a stamina index of ten furlongs or more and can get stakes winners at a rate of 10% or higher. Camelot looks like he could easily join this elite club.
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20/07/2018 17:34