Solar electricity

solar electricitgy

The fast mover

Although the production and installation of solar panels has proven to be a commercially viable enterprise and a whole industry has developed around it, new opportunities as well as challenges arise for the next generation of solar cells. High efficiencies provide promising perspectives with regard to sustainability, but the PV industry finds itself at a crossroads of opposite financial, technical and environmental interests. To take the most sustainable pathway will need further research and technological development.

Solar electricity (also named photovoltaics) is a key technology option for implementing the shift to a decarbonised energy supply. Solar resources in Europe and across the world are abundant and cannot be monopolised by one country. Even though PV has always been characterized by a huge potential, there were few people – not even 10 years ago - who would have predicted that by the end of 2012, the world would have installed over 100 GWp solar cells worldwide.

With currently about 2% of Europe’s energy demand generated through solar power, the growth of solar production in Europe has been enormous: 55% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last decade. In spite of negative economic conditions for the solar industry in the recent years, market opportunities have never been better and the solar cells are now competitive with other (non-renewable) power sources in many parts of the world.

Technology status

In the past 5 years, PV electricity system prices decreased by over 60% in the most competitive markets, and in an increasing number of markets the cost of PVgenerated electricity is already cheaper than residential electricity retail prices. As solar technologies have been adopted, there have been major improvements and cost reductions. Currently, silicon-based solar cells account for about 90% of the international market and have increased their market share at the expense of thin film cells in recent years. After the temporary silicon shortage between 2004 and 2008, silicon prices fell dramatically and the cost of wafer-based silicon solar cells decreased very rapidly.

Commercial solar cells, and hence solar module efficiencies have continued to increase. Based on

choice of wafer and solar cell and module production process, efficiencies range from 12% to 21%, with monocrystalline module efficiencies ranging from 14% to 21%,and multicrystalline modules from 12% to 18%. The massive manufacturing capacity increases for both technologies were followed by the capacity expansions needed for polysilicon raw materials. Critical cost drivers, such as consumables (wear and spare parts), materials, and utilities are also technology drivers, to provide solutions for expensive wear parts such as crucibles (crystallization), slurry and wire (wafering) or critical materials, for instance: metallization pastes (cell), glass and back sheets (module), utility costs (energy plus water) in crystallization, wafering and cell processing as well as yield loss in wafering, cell and module manufacturing. Alternative solar cell technologies, particularly so-called tandem solar cells, show efficiencies up to 45% today, but their extent is limited by currently very high costs of production.

Challenges

The solar industry is more competitive than ever. Still, the European solar industry is experiencing tough circumstances, due to lower margins and oversupply. The global industry has been marked by bankruptcies and industry research budgets have been drastically cut. These developments affect the research sector, both in terms of the size/volume of the research projects, and the requirements of industry participation for acquiring state funding. Norwegian solar cell research has many advantageous features, such as its mix of short term research relevant for the existing industry and long term, high risk research towards novel materials and PV technologies.

The Norwegian PV research community has a significant expertise in solar technology based on both silicon and other PV materials as well as an extensive state-of-theart infrastructure. However, a key challenge is to preserve the investments in infrastructure and expertise, so that the academic community remains well positioned when the profitability of the solar industry returns.

For the radically new technologies, the challenge is in many cases, to demonstrate the high efficiency values that are theoretically predicted. Also, it is challenging to identify materials that are suitable to be used in a sustainable PV technology. Outlook

In connection with energy efficiency in the building sector, solar cells and installation technology are relevant not only for the constructors, but also the end users in Norway. This is especially important with the introduction of future building standards with a focus on energy. We must improve our understanding of solar energy resources in Norway and the effect of the Norwegian climate. It is essential that in the initial phase these developments will be facilitated by politicians to increase the use of solar panels in Norway.

R&D recommendations:

• Increased materials research and development, for both silicon-based systems and new material systems, as well as nanomaterials andstructuring.

• Build on the international lead in silicon production and continue to develop environmentally friendly, cost- and energy efficient new methods for silicon production and refining.

• Develop new materials, processes and technologies for high efficiency solar cells and modules, including high quality wafers, and third generation concepts.

• Increase the activities in PV System integration, including competence building, ICT and system components, in order to prepare for the requirements from an increasing home market. policy recommendations:

• Establish and/or strengthen pilot and teststations to assess the realistic potential of PV systems in Norway and to better understand the performance of stand alone and building integrated

PV-solutions in Norway.