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conclusions and recommendations
Challenges to law enforcement are rising faster in certain parts of Latin America than in others. Demographic trends, the end of recent civil conflicts, the adoption of new political and economic models, and a previous history of weak law enforcement contribute to a picture that varies from country to country. As one would expect, police institutions are weakest where challenges posed by rising crime and transnational threats are greatest. Technology and globalization have so far helped international criminal organizations more than they have helped cash-strapped justice systems. Unconstrained by laws, accountability, or fiscal limitations, such groups, in the aggregate, are capable of earning revenue that far surpasses some countries’ national budgets and even their gross domestic products. Meanwhile, authorities, overwhelmed with drug traffickers and gangs that emerged in the late 1980s, are hard-pressed to deal with new threats such as cyber crime. U.S. history of police aid is uneven. Although such aid has rightly served U.S. interests, its shifting focus—from supporting stable government, to fighting subversion, to counternarcotics, and back to supporting what is now called “democratic security”—has sent mixed signals. Mistakes along the way have produced a tangle of regulations and exceptions that require constant interpretation, delaying engagement and exacerbating episodic involvement based on reacting to crises. As such, U.S. programs have sometimes failed to capitalize on successes and to minimize setbacks. For now, Central America, Haiti, and Mexico have the most critical need to strengthen their law enforcement capacity and culture. The potential for future challenges exists in countries under centralized personal rule, such as Bolivia, Cuba, and Venezuela. Multilateral banks, other countries, and international organizations that once held police reform at arm’s length have begun to get involved by supplying loans, donations, and advice and by promoting coordination. Countries that have growing experience in such areas as counterterrorism and counternarcotics are now providing consulting services and training. However, multiple efforts in several directions, with different objectives, can lead to a lack of coordination. And, given current economic conditions, aid levels may not be consistent from one year to the next. The implications for U.S. policymakers are clear. On the one hand, the United States can continue to react to regional security challenges of the moment, such as drug trafficking or terrorism. However, such an approach will not help countries with dysfunctional forces get ahead of their problems. On the other hand, a strategic approach—in which planning considers trends, the threat environment, available resources, institutional strengths and weaknesses, and leadership and applies common evaluation standards—will permit U.S. assistance to be successful and less wasteful.
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