The regiment listed the following comparisons of the “enemy situation” in its area of operations near the beginning and the end of its deployment.99 See Table 3-1. June 2005 • E nemy retained the initiative, capable of complex attacks and defensive operations • Western Ninewah avenue for insurgents and access to external support • Tal Afar safe haven for leadership and “Title 10” functions • HUMINT access limited • Organization was cohesive and militarily structured • Multiple cells in urban areas • Tribal violence pervasive
January 2006 • E nemy reactive, only capable of IED and IDF attacks • Western Ninewah difficult to traverse with reduced external support • Tal Afar now a non-permissive environment • HUMINT unlimited • Leadership disrupted and displaced • Few cells operating in small communities outside urban areas • Tribal tensions exist, no open violence
Table 3-1. Changes in Western Ninewah, June 2005 – January 2006. These assessments are supported by the striking drop in insurgent attacks experienced in this time period and shown in Figure 3-2. Interviewees universally, albeit with varying degrees of qualification, described Tal Afar as a counterinsurgency success story. As with any celebrated event, a certain mythology has developed around the 3ACR’s experience in Tal Afar, and in fact, the success the regiment enjoyed there was not as “decisive” as the paeans above suggest. There were troubling signs just a month after the regiment left Iraq. One resident told a reporter, “the armed men are fewer, but the assassinations between
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