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Weak State Regime Security A Theoretical & Practical Guide

FM 3 -24 3

MCW P

COU NTE RINS URG ENC Y

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

-33.5


The Weak State Strong State

Weak State

Idea

Idea

Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

?

BureauTerritory cracy

X

Bureaucracy


Weak State Threat Assessment 1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population;

Idea

Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

Bureaucracy

3. State capacity which is insufficient to provide security; and 4. Threat perceptions that are internal rather than external.


Weak State Threat Assessment 1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population;

Idea

Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

Bureaucracy

3. State capacity which is insufficient to provide security; and 4. Threat perceptions that are internal rather than external.


Weak State Threat Assessment 1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population;

Idea

Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

Bureaucracy


Weak State Threat Assessment 1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population;

Idea

Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

Bureaucracy

3. State capacity which is insufficient to provide security; and


Weak State Threat Assessment FM 3-24 .5 -33

MCWP 3

Y URGENC S N I R E T COUN

Idea

Bureaucracy

ER 2006

DECEMB

Territory

N: STRICTIO unlimited. TION RE ribution is DISTRIBU lease; dist r public re fo ed ov Appr

Y ARTERS HEADQU NT OF THE ARM E M T R DEPA

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population; 3. State capacity which is insufficient to provide security; and 4. Threat perceptions that are internal rather than external.


State Territory

Religious Movements

War Lords / Drug Barons

Security Forces

Regime/ State Administration State

Patronage Tribal / Ethnic Power

Local & Self Defence

Ideal Type: Weak State is “only one organisation in a mélange within the boundaries in which it seeks to rule” Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Insecurity Dilemma Society itself is a threat to the regime security. The more the regime tries to establish effective state rule, the more they provoke challenges to their authority from powerful groups in society. Provokes Arming of Society

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

Provokes

State Failure to Provide Security


Administrative Complex When the Institutions of the State are a Threat to the Regime When? Ministries and Armed forces. Especially where rents can be exploited or coercive power accumulated. What? Can emerge as potential rivals to the regime. But, Regime Security requires some institutions. Administrative Institutions

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

Require Compromise

Regime Security


Administrative Complex Strategies for Control: Use excessive control to compromise the efficiency of the organisations; or Proliferation of institutions to balance one off of another.

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Referent Object & Threat Perception Matrix

Regime Threat Perception

Referent Object

Referent Object

Society

-

Threat Perception

-

Regime/State

Society

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


They’re Tenacious! How do they do it, despite the dilemmas?

Ali Abdullah Saleh North Yemen, then Yemen Since 1978 Skye Christensen / Intelect.info

Muammar al-Gaddafi Lybia Since 1969

Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo Equatorial Guinea Since 1979.


e: s yU

e h T

Regime Security Strategies

Elite Accommodation; Ethnic Manipulation; Violent Repression Potemkin Democratisation; Private Military Contractors / Other Outside Actors; and Super Power Alignment and Regional Defence Agreements. Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Regime Security Strategy 1 of 6

Elite Accommodation

The art of making arrangements with key elite throughout society to ensure regime security and a semblance of sovereignty Who? Warlords, political leaders with private armies, or potential opposition. What? Resources either legal or illegal: control over a particular area, state resources diverted their way exclusive control over a particular commercial activity

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Regime Security Strategy 1 of 6

Elite Accommodation

The art of making arrangements with key elite throughout society to ensure regime security and a semblance of sovereignty

What does the regime get back? an agreement not to try and overthrow the regime or encroach on its other activities. What does it cost? Resources or other valuable concessions.

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Regime Security Strategy 1 of 6

Corruption

Corruption is a critical component of successful elite accommodation; Elite accommodation supports cascading patronage networks.

Good International Less Support

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Tolerate Cosmetic Measures Corruption Maintain Elite Patronage Networks

Regime More Security


Regime Security Strategy 2 of 6

Ethnic Manipulation Favour certain groups in the allocation of state resources Oppress minorities viewed as hostile Create minority scapegoat groups during times of unrest Appoint members of the elite’s own ethnic group to positions of power

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Regime Security Strategy 3 of 6

Repression When regime lacks the capacity or resources to accommodate opposition challenges or to counter their claims with reforms

Resort to Political violence. Low success rate Use as last resort.

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Regime Security Strategy 4 of 6

Potempkin Democratization What? Construction of the outward appearance of democracy without facing true competition. Why? Regimes can improve international standing and support.

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Regime Security Strategy 5 of 6

Bring in the Mercenaries! Why? To avoid creating domestic centres of power outside the regime. What? Turn to outside support for services such as security, logistics and administration, public relations, and resource extraction.

Tim

e p S Me

r e c n

n rce

ary

Eeben B arlow Mercen ary

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Regime Security Strategy 6 of 6

Superpower/Regional Defence

e providers should nd that outsiders r improve regime hrough the n of ‘friends in on/Brussels/ don’ or compromise egitimacy through ns of inadequacy.

The Cold-war is over, but the ‘War on Terror,’ and US/China rivalry offer new opportunities for superpower protection. Regional defence compacts with neighbouring states may provide security without the costs of superpower alignment. Be careful, foreign backing may come at the expense of domestic legitimacy, esp. on the arabian peninsula.

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


See the Next Slides for Development Implications and Sources

Good Luck

Skye Christensen / Intelect.info


Implications for International Development The Insecurity Dilemma means that institutional building strategies in weak states may only provoke violent opposition.

Ethnic Manipulation means politics is a realm of existential security threats for the actors involved.

Elite accommodation systems that hinder development also hamper development assistance.

Potempkin Democratization strategies underline the importance of careful assessment whenever electoral assistance is provided.

When combined with an administrative complex, regime security interests clash with institution building, anticorruption, and rule of law promotion.


Sources Buzan, B. 1991. People, states and fear: an agenda for international security studies in the post-Cold War era. Collins, A. 2007. Contemporary security studies: Oxford University Press, USA. Job, BL. 1992. The insecurity dilemma: National, regime, and state securities in the third world. The insecurity dilemma: National security of third world states: 11-36.

Kinsey, C. 2007. Private Security Companies: Agents of Democracy or Simply Mercenaries? Private Military and Security Companies, VS Verlag f存r Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden: 87単107. Migdal, JS. 1988. Strong societies and weak states: state-society relations and state capabilities in the Third World: Princeton Univ Pr. Reno, W. 1999. Warlord politics and African states: Lynne Rienner Pub.


Regime Security in Weak States