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BCP for Crisis Management of [SITE-X] located in [EU Country]: Fatal Public Health Threats (e.g. Pandemic Outbreak)
This document is based on: The Open Compute Project Critical Facilities Operations Framework
[note: file is PDF with embedded ODT for easy edit]
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Table of Content 1 Introduction....................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 General................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 This document.........................................................................................................4 1.3 Purpose and target of this plan................................................................................4 1.4 Process................................................................................................................... 4 2 BCP/BRP plan for Crisis Management of [SITE-X]..........................................................5 2.1 Scope of BCP/BRP.................................................................................................5 2.2 Document owner of BCP/BRP.................................................................................5 2.3 Procedures of activation..........................................................................................5 2.4 Escalation to Crisis Management............................................................................5 2.5 Roles, duties, responsibilities, authorities and ways of communicating...................6 2.5.1 Personnel within [Site Mgmt Service Provider] organization........................6 2.5.2 [Site Customer]...........................................................................................6 2.5.3 Partners, vendors or sub-contractors..........................................................7 2.6 Internal / external dependencies and interactions....................................................7 2.7 Recovery of normal operations................................................................................7 3 Inventory and Analysis.....................................................................................................8 3.1 Critical functions......................................................................................................8 3.1.1 Critical function – Perimeter protection and access (Security & Access).....8 3.1.2 Critical function – Health & Safety...............................................................9 3.1.3 Critical function – Water & Sewer (Building Construction).........................11 3.1.4 Critical function – Power Distribution and Environmental Controls............12 3.2 Threats.................................................................................................................. 12 3.2.1 Pandemics (Epidemics).............................................................................12 3.2.2 Bio-terrorism emergencies........................................................................13 3.2.3 Chemical emergencies..............................................................................13 3.2.4 Radiation emergencies..............................................................................14 3.2.5 Other agents, diseases, and threats with similar consequences...............14 3.3 Scenarios.............................................................................................................. 14 3.3.1 Scenario 1 – fatal public health threat, up to 3 months..............................15 3.3.2 Scenario 2 – fatal public health threat, after the initial 3 months................15 3.3.3 Conclusion of scenario1 and scenario 2....................................................15 4 Solutions and Actions.....................................................................................................16 5 Education and training....................................................................................................17 5.1 Documentation......................................................................................................17 5.2 Technical solutions and systems...........................................................................17 5.3 Organization.......................................................................................................... 17 5.4 Address and handling deficiency and improvements.............................................17 6 Appendix A: BCP/BRP actions.......................................................................................18 6.1 Logging of decisions and action............................................................................18 2 (21)
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7 Appendix B: Role descriptions.......................................................................................18 8 Appendix C: Planning and preparing before Crisis Management...............................19 8.1 Overall goals......................................................................................................... 19 8.2 Encourage creation of pandemic planning team....................................................19 8.3 Acquire as much protective equipment as you can afford (even if hard)................19 8.4 Adjust operations considering reductions in your Operations Team......................20 8.5 Cross-train your staff.............................................................................................20 8.6 Prepare to implement work at home plans............................................................20 8.7 Prepare communications plans.............................................................................20 8.8 Update DR and BCP plans now............................................................................21
Revision history Version
Date
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1 Introduction 1.1
General
A contingency plan is a course of action designed to help an organization respond effectively to a significant future event or situation that may or may not happen. A contingency plan is sometimes referred to as "Plan B," because it can be also used as an alternative for action if expected results fail to materialize. [Site Mgmt Service Provider] planning is broadly in line with the international standard, ISO 22301: 2012, the Business Continuity Management Systems. Within [Site Mgmt Service Provider], we work with a crisis management plan at the corporate level, and with business continuity plans at the subsidiary level and / or for individual IT systems or sites. In this way, we ensure that we have a comprehensive plan to deal with major emergencies in the group while there are detailed plans that are tailored to each individual subsidiary to local conditions.
1.2
This document
This plan is based on the template used within [Site Mgmt Service Provider] Group to ensure proper measurements are taken to manage the scenario at hand. This individual plan shall be handled as “Confidential�.
1.3
Purpose and target of this plan
To ensure the safety and security of personnel during the crisis, to keep the ability to restore normal site operations after the crisis has been handled.
1.4
Process
The BCP and BRP process and its phases in the event of incidents and the return to normal operations and escalation to the Group-wide crisis and disaster management:
Escalation to crisis and disaster management at Group level follows the [Site Mgmt Service Provider] Services Incident Process found in the Quality and Environmental Management System.
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2 BCP/BRP plan for Crisis Management of [SITE-X] 2.1
Scope of BCP/BRP
2.2
Site [SITE-X] / [Address], [Postal Code] [City], [Country]
Document owner of BCP/BRP
Role: Primary Site Manager
Name: [John D]
Contact information: [EMAIL / PHONE / OTHER]
2.3
Procedures of activation
The Site Operations team should assess its readiness and availability of required resources to implement this plan, if any of the conditions below are met: 1
If an emergency outside [country of SITE-X location] leads to more than 500 recorded fatalities during a rolling 4-week period
2
If an emergency within [country of SITE-X location] leads to more than 100 recorded fatalities during a rolling 4-week period
The readiness assessment shall be documented accordingly and [Site Mgmt Service Provider] HR should be consulted.
2.4
Escalation to Crisis Management
This plan is to be fully activated if any of the conditions below are met: 1
If gaining access to the site is directly endangered by fatal public health threats
2
If a fatal public health threat, e.g. epidemic or pandemic1, has reached more than 2 000 recorded fatalities during a rolling 7-day period within [country of SITE-X location], or more than 500 recorded fatalities in a 24-hour period in [country of SITEX location]
At the escalation of crisis and disaster management to Group level, [Site Mgmt Service Provider] Security must be contacted.
1 Example: https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/news/ news/2020/3/who-announces-covid-19-outbreak-a-pandemic 5 (21)
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2.5
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Roles, duties, responsibilities, authorities and ways of communicating
In case of moving into crisis management the main objectives are to save personnel lives and protect the customer’s equipment2 from damages. Prerequisites are, unless this conflicts with the main objectives:
The named personnel within [Site Mgmt Service Provider] organization is to be located on-site
The Site is to be held isolated to from fatal public health threats
Recovery of site’s normal operations supersede Customer IT Operation needs
2.5.1
Personnel within [Site Mgmt Service Provider] organization
Name
Telephone
Title
Specialization
[John D] ♂
[PHONE]
Site Manager
[SITE-X] / Site Ops
[Z1M] ♂
[PHONE]
Site Manager
[SITE-X] / Site Ops
[Z1F] ♀
[PHONE]
Contract Controller
Site Ops
[Z2M] ♂
[PHONE]
Technical Coordinator
Maintenance: EMP
[Z2F] ♀
[PHONE]
Service Technician UPS
Maintenance: UPS
[Z3F] ♀
[PHONE]
Service Technician Cooling
Maintenance: Environmental Control
[Z3M] ♂
[PHONE]
Head of Operations
Line Mgmt / Contract Mgmt
[Z4F] ♀
[PHONE]
HR Business Partner
People Management
[Z5F] ♀
[PHONE]
Head of HR
Line Mgmt / People Mgmt
[Z4M] ♂
[PHONE]
Security Officer
Crisis Management
[Z6F] ♀
[PHONE]
Country Manager
Line Management
Name
Telephone
Title
Specialization
[Z5M] ♂
[PHONE]
DC Manager
ITM / DC Ops
[Z6M] ♂
[PHONE]
Chief Product Owner
ITM / Line Mgmt
[Z7M] ♂
[PHONE]
Head of IT delivery
ITM / Line Mgmt
[Z7F] ♀
[PHONE]
CIO
Line Mgmt
2.5.2
[Site Customer]
2 Note: not to enable full IT Management or IT services, only to protect assets against damages. 6 (21)
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2.5.3
Partners, vendors or sub-contractors
Company
Telephone
[ZX / Fuel]
[PHONE]
[ZX / Grid Power 1]
[PHONE]
[ZX / Grid Power 2]
[PHONE]
[ZX / Site Security]
[PHONE]
[ZX / Water & Sewer]
[PHONE]
[ZX / Dark Fibre 1]
[PHONE]
[ZX / Dark Fibre 2]
[PHONE]
2.6
Information classification:
Primary Contact
Specialization
Internal / external dependencies and interactions
Dependencies are described for each critical function, see section 3.1
2.7
Recovery of normal operations
At the restoration or return to normal mode, the following steps and processes are followed: 1 2 3 4 5 6
After Critical Function have been restored: Joint workshop with [Site Customer] to plan restart of IT equipment [Site Mgmt Service Provider] workshop with suppliers to prioritize restoration of NonCritical Functions Strategic Governance meeting to identify and prioritize issues between the parties as well as mandate weekly Tactical Governance meetings Weekly Tactical Governance Meetings between [Site Customer] and [Site Mgmt Service Provider] to ensure operational issues are resolved in a timely manner Problem Management: Run a series of “lessons learned workshops� to identify rootcause and what can be improved for the future (leverage Plan-Do-Study-Act)
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3 Inventory and Analysis 3.1
Critical functions
3.1.1 3.1.1.1
Critical function – Perimeter protection and access (Security & Access) Summary of Normal Operations
To protect the site from external physical threats, it is important to ensure that both perimeter protection and access controls are functioning. Perimeter protection is upheld with active and passive measures.
Active measures are different alarms that trigger a response from the Site Security Supplier, e.g. monitoring on the outside roof and between higher and lower ceiling.
Passive measures are security classified Partition Walls (PW), doors and windows, collision protectors outside outer walls, etc.
Access control Is managed via
man trap for external entry with remote authentication by the Security Supplier (PW)
external loading bay door that is operated via key card and code from the inside (PW)
internal doors between different sections (PW, CA, TA and PA)
external door to exit the site from the inside (PW)
CCTV monitoring is maintained across the site by [Site Mgmt Service Provider] (CA, AA) and by the customer (AA, CA, PA). All feeds are collected and accessed by the Security Supplier. The customer feeds are also collected and accessed by a separate Security supplier (separate from [Site Mgmt Service Provider]) 3.1.1.2
EOP: Perimeter protection
Passive perimeter protection is used as in normal operations. Active perimeter protection is no longer relied upon remote connectivity for third parties, instead this is upheld via on-site rounds and manual check-ups of perimeter, using defensive weapons and inspection tools acquired from local vendors: REF EOP-ID 3.1.1.3
Limits before EOP: Perimeter protection must be returned to Normal Operations
Resources: minimum 2 individuals, with suitable equipment, on-site
Calendar Time: no limits to uphold EOP
Other dependencies: Critical Function – Health & Safety
3.1.1.4
EOP: Access control
Access control is no longer relied upon remote connectivity for third parties, instead this is upheld via on-site authentication and use of non-electronic keys. Authorization is upheld by using defensive weapons acquired from local vendors: REF EOP-ID 3.1.1.5
Limits before EOP: Access control must be returned to Normal Operations
Resources: minimum 2 individuals, with suitable equipment, on-site 8 (21)
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Calendar Time: no limits to uphold EOP
Other dependencies: Critical Function – Health & Safety
3.1.2 3.1.2.1
Information classification:
Critical function – Health & Safety Summary of Normal Operations
In normal operations, these measures are focused on work place safety and avoidance of hazards by using risk assessments and site inspections. These are scheduled in the annual planner and may also be triggered by specific events, e.g. before a service project starts. In case of injuries there are first aid kits available on site. 3.1.2.2
EOP: Health & Safety
The procedures are intended to secure site operations purely by using on-site personnel. Pre-defined work place safety measures should be applied where possible. Existing first aid kits on the site should be collected and used for emergencies only. These are expected to last for at least 30 days. After that period, there is a need to acquire additional supplies from local vendors, this also includes antibiotics, personal hygiene products, face masks and any other medication required for the people at the site. REF EOP-ID To be able to operate the site for a prolonged time, fundamental physiological and psychological needs should be met:
Water
Warmth
Sleep
Food
Information and Social alleviation
These are described in REF EOP-ID 3.1.2.3
Limits before EOP: Health & Safety (Water) must be returned to Normal Operations
Apart from air, water is one of the most fundamental human needs. A healthy person can survive on 2-3 litres per 24-hour period, after that bodily- and mental functions are degenerating rapidly. Acquisition of water tanks and replenishment is described under EOP: Water & Sewer (Building Construction)
Resources: 3L water per individual and 24-hour period.
Calendar Time: 48 hours without resources (72 hours fatal)
Other dependencies: Critical function – Water & Sewer (Building Construction)
3.1.2.4
Limits before EOP: Health & Safety (Warmth) must be returned to Normal Operations
The human body is best suited to operate at approx. 37o C. If we drop below that we will start to shiver, our working capacity decreases and at too low temperatures we become unconscious and then freeze to death. To minimize risks, proper equipment, e.g. sleeping bags and blankets, are acquired from local vendors: REF EOP-ID
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Resources: clothes, blankets, sleeping bags, using window drapes and curtains during dark hours to keep warmth inside, sleep in a common room etc.
Calendar Time: no limits to uphold EOP
Other dependencies: Critical Function – Health & Safety (all other)
3.1.2.5
Limits before EOP: Health & Safety (Sleep) must be returned to Normal Operations
We need sleep to allow our brain to rest from fatigue. Poor sleep, even during a single 24hour period will decrease our work capacity (typical signs being headache, dizziness and irritability). After a period of sleep deprivation of 24-36 hours our mental functions are degenerating rapidly and if continued beyond 72 hours, is fatal.
Resources: calm down and focus before going to sleep, schedule and plan for sleep to establish routines, keep sleeping quarters dark/quite/cool, exercise regularly.
Calendar Time: 36 hours of sleep deprivation (72 hours fatal)
Other dependencies: Critical Function – Health & Safety (Information and Social alleviation)
3.1.2.6
Limits before EOP: Health & Safety (Food) must be returned to Normal Operations
It is possible to survive a prolonged time without food, but due to lowered blood sugar levels working capacity will be decreased with slow responses and decreased reaction speeds. Other consequences include restlessness, irritability and headache. To minimize risks, canned food and similar products, are acquired from local vendors, but do note the long timeline before need of food becomes critical: REF EOP-ID Body Mass Index (BMI) = kg/m2 where kg is a person's weight in kilograms and m2 is their height in meters squared.
Resources: approx. 1800-2300 kcal per individual and 24-hour period
Calendar Time: several weeks; fatality at approx. BMI <11 (female) and <13 (male)
Other dependencies: Critical Function – Health & Safety (all other)
3.1.2.7
Limits before EOP: Health & Safety (Information and Social alleviation) must be returned to Normal Operations
Lack of control over the situation can lead to anxiety and lack of initiative and working capability. Over time this may lead to degenerated mental functions, e.g. apathy or antisocial behaviours. An important way of providing some control is to secure access to external information. Emergency broadcasts are made via Radio [Channel] in [EU Country]. The EU-Alert3 (Cell Broadcast) is used in several EU countries to urgently alert the local public to stay indoors with active access controls while listening to radio broadcasts. Important to note: some countries have not implemented the EU-Alert system, so check and consult the approach for the location of [SITE-X]: REF EOP-ID. Other important aspects are to secure access to measures for social alleviation; board games and regular exercise are two effective ways of providing non-violent means for 3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU-Alert 10 (21)
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release of potential social tension and to create intellectual stimulus while providing opportunities to establish routines, e.g. “training hours” or “game nights”.
Resources need to be acquired from local vendors. REF EOP-ID o
Information: 1 emergency FM radio (powered by solar and/or crank handle).
o
board games without battery requirements: Pandemic, Anything Zombie, Arkham Horror, Power Grid, Ticket to Ride Europe, That’s Pretty Clever, Sagrada, Othello and four decks of traditional playing cards for any traditional card games.
o
Exercise: 10 skip ropes, 10 exercise mats, rolls of badminton balls and racquets, a game set of King, rolls of tennis balls (can be used with buckets for precision throws etc.)
Calendar Time: no limits to uphold EOP
Other dependencies: Critical Function – Health & Safety (all other)
3.1.3 3.1.3.1
Critical function – Water & Sewer (Building Construction) Summary of Normal Operations
Water and sewer systems are operated by the Municipality of [location of SITE-X] by providing external freshwater to the facility and removing waste water to the public sewers. 3.1.3.2
EOP: Water & Sewer (Building construction)
If external freshwater is at risk of expiring, this need to be collected and stored in 1000L IBC tanks on the rooftop. When full, such a tank provides necessary fresh water for a person up to 12 months if used with restrictions. These IBC tanks need to be acquired empty from local providers. Once mounted on the rooftop, they should be filled with freshwater from the service provider (if still available) and have their tops perforated to be able to collect future rainwater without allowing birds or other animals access the contents. This requires appropriate accessories and tools, e.g. hose/piping/pumps, drills, knives, hammers and nails. REF EOP-ID A non-functional sewer should not be used to minimize risks of spreading infectious disease. Instead 100 plastic bags per expected 30-day period should be acquired from local providers. The bags are used only to collect faeces and used paper and should be tied closed and replaced on a once-to-twice daily routine. They are left outside the facility (on the rooftop to avoid perimeter control breaches) until external sewer and waste management is operational. Urine is relieved outside the facility (on the rooftop to avoid perimeter control breaches). REF EOP-ID It is preferable, but not critical to acquire three toilet paper rolls per person for each 30-day period. Alternatives include the use individual wash cloths to conserve resources and minimize the need to acquire toilet paper from local providers. 3.1.3.3
Limits before EOP: Building construction (water & sewer) must be returned to Normal Operations
Resources: 100 plastic bags per 30-day period
Calendar Time: no limits to uphold EOP
Other dependencies: Critical Function – Health & Safety
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3.1.4
Information classification:
Critical function – Power Distribution and Environmental Controls
3.1.4.1
Summary of Normal Operations
Power distribution and Environmental controls feeding the PA are managed automatically by the Tier III-designed site. This does not include other areas in the building, outside the Net Floor Area rented by [Site Mgmt Service Provider] from the Real Estate Owner. Grid power is sold by [POWER BROKER] while being distributed through the grid net owned and operated by [GRID POWER 1] and [GRID POWER 2]. 3.1.4.2
EOP: Power Distribution and Environmental controls
Note: already when meeting the Crisis Management criteria, the customer IT Equipment should be shut down in a controlled manner to avoid any future damages to such equipment. In case of external grid power failure, the emergency power distribution is designed to take over automatically. Before such event occurs, the Site Configuration Procedures for all Site systems should be set to a minimum (or be turned off completely where possible) to minimize the use of remaining fuel in the tanks. The only power distribution and Environmental controls allowed are to provide lighting and ventilation in the Amenity Areas (AA) and Circulation Areas (CA). Note: fibre connectivity or Internet access should not be provided specific power distribution resources. Internet can be accessed via mobile devices, charged from the outlets in AA. Estimated average amount of fuel required to uphold these functions are [XX] litres of fuel/24 hours. Windows or external doors should not be kept open, to avoid perimeter control breaches. For periods after the fuel runs out, warm blankets and clothing should be acquired from local vendors as described in Critical Function – Health & Safety. 3.1.4.3
Limits before EOP: Power Distribution and Environmental controls must be returned to Normal Operations
Resources: [XX] litres fuel/24 hours, EMP Service Competencies
Calendar Time: estimated at 30 days to uphold EOP (Critical Function – Health & Safety applies after that)
Other dependencies: Critical Function – Health & Safety
3.2
Threats
This BCP is focused on enabling long-term operations of the site while mitigating risks due to fatal public health threats. 3.2.1
Pandemics (Epidemics)
A disease can be declared an epidemic when it spreads over a wide area and many individuals are taken ill at the same time. If the spread escalates further, an epidemic can become a pandemic, which affects an even wider geographical area and a significant portion of the population becomes affected.
An epidemic is defined as “an outbreak of disease that spreads quickly and affects many individuals at the same time.”
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A pandemic is a type of epidemic (one with greater range and coverage), an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population.
While a pandemic may be characterized as a type of epidemic, you would not say that an epidemic is a type of pandemic. 3.2.2
Bio-terrorism emergencies
A bio-terrorism attack is the deliberate release of viruses, bacteria, or other germs to cause illness or death. These germs are often found in nature. But they can sometimes be made more harmful by increasing their ability to cause disease, spread, or resist medical treatment. Biological agents spread through the air, water, or in food. Some can also spread from person to person. They can be very hard to detect. They don't cause illness for several hours or days. Scientists worry that anthrax, botulism, Ebola and other haemorrhagic fever viruses, plague, or smallpox could be used as biological agents. Most common germs that could be used in a terrorist attack4.
Anthrax
Plague
Smallpox
Haemorrhagic Fevers Caused by Arenaviruses
3.2.3
Chemical emergencies
A chemical emergency occurs when a hazardous chemical has been released and the release has the potential for harming people’s health. Chemical releases can be unintentional, as in the case of an industrial accident, or intentional, as in the case of a terrorist attack. Some chemicals that are hazardous have been developed by military organizations for use in warfare. Examples are nerve agents such as sarin and VX, mustards such as sulphur mustards and nitrogen mustards, and choking agents such as phosgene. It might be possible for terrorists to get these chemical warfare agents and use them to harm people. Many hazardous chemicals are used in industry (for example, chlorine, ammonia, and benzene). Others are found in nature (for example, poisonous plants). Some could be made from everyday items such as household cleaners. These types of hazardous chemicals also could be obtained and used to harm people, or they could be accidentally released. 3.2.3.1
Chemical terrorism
Chemical terrorism involves the use of chemicals to destroy life, injure humans and animals, and produce panic, disruption, and chaos. Chemical terrorism agents are poisonous vapours, aerosols, liquids, or solids that have toxic effects on people, animals or plants. They can be released by bombs, sprayed from aircraft, boats, or vehicles, or used as a liquid to create a hazard to people and the environment. Some chemical agents may be odourless and tasteless. They usually have an immediate effect (a few seconds to a few minutes) or a delayed effect (several hours). While potentially 4 For a more extensive list on potential agents/diseases and their treatments, please refer to https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/agentlist.asp 13 (21)
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lethal, chemical agents are difficult to deliver in lethal concentrations. Outdoors, the agents often dissipate rapidly. Chemical agents are also difficult to produce. There are six main types of chemical agents5:
Lung-damaging (pulmonary) agents such as chlorine
Cyanide
Blister agents such as mustard gas
Nerve agents such as GA (tabun), GB (sarin), GD (soman), GF, VX and some pesticides
Incapacitating agents such as BZ
Riot-control agents (similar to MACE)
3.2.4
Radiation emergencies
Radiation is a type of energy. People are exposed to small amounts of radiation every day from sources such as sunlight. A lot of radiation over a short period can cause burns or radiation sickness. If the exposure is large enough, it can cause premature ageing or even death. Radiation emergencies may be intentional, e.g., caused by terrorists, or unintentional. A radiation emergency would involve larger amounts of radiation and could be caused by6
Dirty bombs – a mix of explosives with radioactive powder
Fallout from a nuclear bomb
Accidental release from a nuclear reactor or a nuclear weapons plant
3.2.5
Other agents, diseases, and threats with similar consequences
3.2.5.1
Mass psychogenic illness
Mass psychogenic illness is when people in a group start feeling sick at the same time even though there is no physical or environmental reason for them to be sick. They could think they’ve been exposed to something dangerous, like a germ or a toxin (poison). This could happen to a class in a school, or workers in an office or at a site. Many outbreaks of mass psychogenic illness start with an environmental “trigger.” The environmental trigger can be a bad smell or a suspicious-looking substance. Or it could be something else that makes people in a group believe they have been exposed to a germ or a poison. When this happens, many of them may begin to experience symptoms of sickness at the same time. In some cases, one person gets sick and then other people in the group also start feeling sick.
3.3
Scenarios
Suppose a zombie apocalypse really happened. Do you think you would survive?
5 For a more extensive list on potential agents/diseases and their treatments, please refer to https://emergency.cdc.gov/chemical/overview.asp 6 For a more extensive list on potential agents/diseases and their treatments, please refer to https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/typesofemergencies.htm 14 (21)
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According to Forbes Magazine7, a team of students in the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Leicester took this question seriously and you’re not going to like the answer. The students published a pair of papers based on an epidemiological model called SIR (Susceptible, Infected and Recovered or Removed) that is often used to model the spread of infectious diseases throughout a population. They adapted SIR to model a zombie apocalypse. The paper published in the Journal of Physics Special Topics set a parameter to the model that gives each person a 10% chance of killing a zombie when they meet. They modelled people’s increasing sophistication at avoiding zombies by replacing a 90% probability of infection when an encounter takes place with a parameter that decreases the chance of infection as the number of uninfected declines. Births were modelled by assuming that the uninfected are equally divided between males and females, that half the uninfected can make a baby at any given time, and that half of the females can give birth. They also assumed that females could have one baby every three years. The zombies’ lifespan without feeding was set to 12 months. 3.3.1
Scenario 1 – fatal public health threat, up to 3 months
The increase in the number of zombies is slow for about 40 days, but then it rises exponentially. However, at 100 days there are still roughly 200 million uninfected left alive – a drastic decline from the 7.5 billion people that were alive when the scenario began. 3.3.2
Scenario 2 – fatal public health threat, after the initial 3 months
The number of uninfected continues to decline after the initial period, but they manage to survive until day 1.000. At that time, there are roughly 67 million uninfected people left in the world. This may sound like many, but it’s approximately 88 survivors out of every 10.000 people alive on day 0. On day 1.000 things look bad for the uninfected, but they look even worse for the zombies, most of the zombies have died because there aren't very many uninfected left to feed on and the ones who are still alive have gotten very good at avoiding zombies. The zombies disappear completely over the next six years. About three years after that, the human population begins to slowly, but noticeably, grow. 3.3.3
Conclusion of scenario1 and scenario 2
So, there you have it: if you quickly learn to avoid the zombies, fight back when you can’t avoid them and make babies when you’re not avoiding or fighting, you have a 0,0088 probability of surviving for 1.000 days. Think you can make it?
7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinmurnane/2017/01/08/guess-how-many-people-will-survive-azombie-apocalypse/ 15 (21)
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Contingency plan in cases of fatal public health threats
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2020-08-11
[Jane Doe]
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4 Solutions and Actions ID 1
WHAT (RISK/THREAT)
HOW ACTIONS(ACTIONS)
Risks of Perimeter breach
Acquire defensive weapons and tools according to “shopping list” and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
(Perimeter Protection fails)
WHO
COMMENTS
2
Access controls fails
Acquire defensive weapons according to “shopping list” and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
3
General health issues, accidents and injuries
Acquire first-aid kits, personal hygiene products, face masks, antibiotics and other medical supplies according to “shopping list” and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
Refer to EOP for Water & Sewer
REF EOP-ID
Acquire proper equipment according to “shopping list” and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
Refer to EOP for Information and Social alleviation
REF EOP-ID
Acquire canned food according to “shopping list” and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
Acquire FM Radio, board games and exercise tools according to “shopping list” and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
Acquire IBC tanks, piping and tools according to “shopping list” and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
Acquire plastic bags and more according to “shopping list” and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
Configure Site systems to minimize use of power and execute EOP
REF EOP-ID
(Health & Safety) 4
Lack of fresh water (Health & Safety)
5
Lack of warmth (Health & Safety)
6
Lack of sleep (Health & Safety)
7
Lack of food (Health & Safety)
8
Lack of Information and social alleviation (Health & Safety)
9
No fresh water supplies (Water & Sewer)
10
Non-functional Sewer (Water & Sewer)
11
No grid power
12 13 14 15
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5 Education and training 5.1
Documentation
The different Emergency Operating Procedures for the Critical Functions should be stored in accordance with the Document Management Process for [SITE-X].
5.2
Technical solutions and systems
This plan applies for Crises management, and as such it does not rely on technical solution and systems.
5.3
Organization
As listed in section 2.5
5.4
Address and handling deficiency and improvements
This plan should be reviewed annually and updated accordingly.
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6 Appendix A: BCP/BRP actions 6.1
Logging of decisions and action
Date
Time
Topic/Discussion/Status
7 Appendix B: Role descriptions [ATTACH ROLE DESCRIPTIONS HERE]
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Decision
RACI
Due
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8 Appendix C: Planning and preparing before Crisis Management What to prepare before Crisis Management activities begin.
8.1
Overall goals
Encourage creation of corporate pandemic planning team
Ensure Operations and Maintenance Teams continue to operate at [SITE-X]
Acquire protective equipment
Prepare to adjust operations considering absences, deaths
Have redundant communications plan (cellphones, broadband wireless, satellite, etc.) if network or Internet fails
Prepare to shut down non-essential IT Equipment and Site Systems
Cross-train your staff
Support Work From Home (WFH)
Prepare for supply chain failures; execute EOP “shopping lists” before panic mode
Prepare Communications Plan to ensure staff relocate to [SITE-X] when needed
Teach protective actions against infection and refresh first-aid training
Gain an understanding of the threats of this plan and how they work
Leverage this planning for similar scenarios
Update DR and BCP plans NOW
8.2
Encourage creation of pandemic planning team
Chief Legal
HR, incl. Training Development
IT department
Supply Chain Management
Marketing, for Communications
Office contacts and FM suppliers to our premises
Site contacts for Site Management Functions to our sites
Group Management Team and Country Management Team.
Work hard to for flu vaccinations for the team identified in this plan
8.3
Acquire as much protective equipment as you can afford (even if hard)
Medical face masks that are CE certified as type I, type II or type IIR (3 per person/day for the duration of a wave of a pandemic)
Alcohol-based hand sanitizer, enough for the duration of a wave of a pandemic
Gloves (vinyl – some people are allergic to latex) same ratio as face masks
19 (21)
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8.4
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Adjust operations considering reductions in your Operations Team
Anticipate 30-60% morbidity (illness) within staff; 1-10% death rate and consider what that means for execution
Focus on data centre integrity and access control first
Train Data Center emergency operations for [Site Customer] IT (lights out operation, minimized third-party access)
Prepare to shut down non-essential IT services and IT equipment
Grab your list of integrated Site Operations Processes and (re)prioritize them with the [Site Customer] Team – escalate if necessary
Prepare to shut down ALL non-essential services and to abandon SLAs for same (allow them to fail if they fail)
Do not bring these services back up if they fail, unless you can support them later
Maintain the list and review annually as part of DR/BCP
Inventory [Site Customer] IT processes with intent to move as many of them as practicable to STO02 operations
Work with site suppliers to ensure they are “on top of” pandemic planning
8.5
Cross-train your staff
Review and refresh SOPs, MESTs and EOPs for critical processes
Cross-train your staff to strengthen resilience
Assume significant additional absenteeism due to closure of schools and nurseries
Cross-train inside and outside of Data Center; in other words, cross-train also the non-Operations people (identified in this plan) in simpler technical tasks
Don’t bother to cross-train staff on services you know will be allowed to fail
Review and refresh Process “Team & Suppliers Management”, especially regarding training in BCP plan
8.6
Prepare to implement work at home plans
Likely targets: Workers with young children too young to leave at home
Be prepared to experience occasional to frequent Internet disruptions, depending on closures of schools, other events
Paper (if used at all) must be quarantined, lest employers inadvertently sicken otherwise healthy homes (CDC and St. Jude Hospital say virus becomes inert after 12 to 24 hours on paper and porous surfaces).
Each stage in the paper handling process requires a day quarantine to prevent infection (learn from the death of Inuits in 1918)
Scanning of documents is helpful and would eliminate need for physical distribution and thereby any potential for infection.
8.7
Prepare communications plans
Conduct an awareness campaign within your organization now 20 (21)
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Cover work and home issues
Teach employees how to prepare themselves and their families FIRST and now, instead of later – when it is too late
Teach protective actions and personal hygiene
Prepare them for moving from site to site – even from company to company
Consider emergency notification services
Eliminates the old “phone tree” tedium
8.8
Update DR and BCP plans now
Armed with your information and in conjunction with all company peers, create your Pandemic Annex to your BCP and Disaster recovery plans NOW
Don’t forget service technicians and other field staff
Maintain corporate information security during all this
Prepare to recover from cascading emergencies (pandemic on top of terrorism, on top of flooding etc.)
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