Prof. Dr. Ir. Andre Nijhof, former top Shell official: "Merkel was wrong to close nuclear power plants and import Russian gas." A tour through the world of oil, gas, nuclear power and renewable energy sources. On the turnaround at Shell, he says: "It's revolutionary. Nothing could be further from the truth."

Prof. Dr. Ir. Andre Nijhof, Professor of Sustainable Business & Stewardship:

THE CONSUMER IS ONE OF THE LAST PASSENGERS ON THE SUSTAINABILITY TRAIN!

In clear terms, Prof. Dr. Ir. Andre Nijhof of Nyenrode Business University addresses ten statements on climate, sustainability and energy transition. His opinions are based on the latest facts and insights. He leaves little to be desired from the widely-held assumptions in international politics. China is not the big culprit. Politicians are not decisive in creating a more sustainable society. It is entrepreneurs, civil servants and professionals who are leading the way with innovations that will keep the earth habitable in the long term.

THESES BY OELE STEENKS, ANSWERS BY ANDRE NIJHOF

Theorem

1

The realization that sustainability is needed to pass the planet on to a next generation seems to have been accepted in the western world by a majority of the population. The Glasgow Climate Agreement has an impact on the average Western citizen. Right or wrong?

AN: "Right, although the question is what we mean by 'supported.' The majority is convinced that climate change is a big problem and that something needs to be done about it. But that doesn't mean that they're going to take action themselves. Moreover, it is not primarily the climate agreement, but climate change that has an impact on the average Western citizen. In order to do something about that, a climate agreement has been drawn up. But we should not confuse the solution and the problem. The problem is climate change and part of the solution is agreements like the Glasgow Convention."

2 Theorem

There are numerous countries where survival defines daily practice, such as in the Sahel states, Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Myanmar, Venezuela, former USSR states. Part of the problem is climate related. The Western world is not paying enough attention to national abuses in the pursuit of sustainability.

AN: "I agree, although I see sustainability in a broader context than climate change. Social inequality is also a big problem in these countries, with a small group that has a lot of possessions and a large group that has hardly any prospects for the future. This causes tensions that, in turn, fuel authoritarianism to keep those tensions in check. The Sustainable Development Goals are therefore deliberately set as a global agenda in which no theme can be left behind. Dov Seidman, among others, aptly indicates this in his book "How" with the statement "Our world has gone from connected, to interconnected, to interdependent." And that interdependence means that we need to look more systemically at how we can change the rules of the game so that sustainable results become the logical outcome. In our book "Changing the Game," we go into that in more detail, and I'm pleasantly surprised how all kinds of companies, governments and other organizations are leveraging that systemic way of thinking to accelerate sustainable transitions."

Theorem

3

In recent international tensions between Russia and the United States on the one hand and NATO allies on the other hand, classic military elements such as air force, land force and navy are back in full force. These cold war elements take away the urgency for climate goals from major power players like the U.S., Russia and China.

AN: "Disagree. The urgency of climate goals remains undiminished as, for example, the forest fires in Siberia and California last year are not extinguished by such developments. But the statement does indicate that the governance agenda is much more complex than just making policy on the sustainability themes. So in my view, these kinds of developments do not come in place of sustainability, but on top of it."

Most of the OPEC countries have economies that depend largely on the supplying of fossil fuels. Countries like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, the United Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have little interest in rapidly phasing out fossil fuel use.

AN: "I agree, but actually the same applies to a country like the Netherlands. Not only because of our fossil fuels (oil and gas), but also because we are a major consumer. In my view, reducing the use of fossil fuels does not start with OPEC countries, but with innovations that make us less dependent on oil from these kinds of countries. One striking development is that in countries around the equator - including these OPEC countries - it is already cheaper to generate electricity from renewable sources than from oil. So we are also not dependent on the will of these kinds of countries to change. There are other forces that are moving us in a more sustainable direction."

5

Theorem

Thesis: Within the EU, the practice of energy transition is uneven in the approaches of member states. France runs largely on power from nuclear reactors, Germany decouples nuclear power and increases dependence on Russian natural gas, Germany continues lignite exploitation, Poland seems a potential disaster country with outdated nuclear power plants and polluting lignite mining. More central direction from Brussels is needed.

AAN: "Disagree. That's the standard reflex as soon as we run into complex problems. The government has to solve it. But then we must first ask ourselves why it is so difficult for the government to solve it. In research, therefore, we often conduct a rootcause analysis first. What are the current rules of the game that lead to the current outcomes? And once we know that, we can figure out what interventions change those rules of the game. This is always possible because "the rules of the game are not godgiven, they are men-made." And then we come to a range of actors who can launch this type of intervention. For example, knowledge institutions that come up with new technologies on the basis of research. For example, companies that are first movers with new products and services. Banks, for example, who will make different choices as to what they will and will not finance. And, of course, Brussels, which can also do something. But that is not the central control that is in the statement. Brussels has launched the Green Deal with which 700 billion will be invested from public funds in the direction of sustainable energy - hydrogen, geothermal, insulation, etc. - and a multiple of this will become available from private funds. The latter is especially stimulated by frameworks based on the EU Taxonomy. Large companies are already required to report by 2022 what percentage of their turnover and of their investments (Capex) meets the definitions set out in the Taxonomy. Smaller companies will follow in the years that follow. This is going to facilitate a flow of private money toward sustainable entrepreneurs. As a smart entrepreneur, you want to be there and I see that happening in many sectors now."

Theorem

The willingness of Western consumers to accept climate-related stores and pricing investments in sustainability is ultimately the key driver for achieving a more sustainable economy in the West.

6

AN: "Disagree. I often say that the consumer is one of the last passengers on the sustainability train jumps. In my view, the most important driving factor is the inspired entrepreneurs, civil servants and other professionals who do not wait until they are forced to do so, but who proactively start working on becoming more sustainable. You can find these kinds of examples in every sector. And then, through action and reaction, the whole system begins to change. Just look at Tony Chocolonely, for example. There are now plenty of consumers who buy these chocolate bars. They have even become the market leader in 10 years and thus bigger than Milka, Nestle, Mars and other established companies. But did this start because we, as consumers, no longer wanted to buy chocolate made with poor working conditions? No, it started with Teun van der Keuken who, as a journalist, noticed that time and again chocolate was linked to slave labor. He set to work to prove that things could be done differently and now he is the biggest. So you do need consumers, but we need to get away from the idea that companies can only move if customers ask for something. In themes such as sustainability, the customer is not king, but an ally towards a better world."

The desire of citizens to work for organizations, institutions, and companies that actually are sustainable is an important second factor in achieving the climate agenda.

AN: "Agreed. Research shows that for more and more young people, the choice of their employer is partly determined by how they deal with sustainability. And in my opinion, it goes far beyond young people. Look at yourself. Does it matter to you if the organization you lead or work for is a leader in sustainability? It probably does. Realizing that your work is meaningful is a key driver of people."

The energy transition and innovations for a more sustainable Dutch society call for a corrective levy mechanism by the government.

Theorem

8

AN: "Disagree. I think this is again the traditional reflex that the government has to solve complex problems and as long as they don't we can continue with "Business as Usual." No, the time of business as usual is over. And am I then against corrective levy mechanisms. No, they can indeed play a role. But first of all, alongside all kinds of other interventions and secondly, it is not only up to the government to introduce corrective tax mechanisms. PWC, for example, has decided that they will start to charge for all the CO2 that is released during the activities of their employees. Not by taxing it, but by creating an internal innovation budget. With that budget they are creating the conditions to reduce CO2 emissions. That is two times profit. They are prepared for the future if a CO2 tax is introduced and, as a frontrunner, they show how you can change the rules of the game through smart business."

9

Theorem

As a traditional exporting country, the Netherlands has a head start in Improving international livability with sustainable solutions and products.

AN: "Agree and disagree. First of all, I agree, because it is precisely by taking the lead in this area that we stand the best chance of offering solutions which many other countries will also need. We are already doing this with regard to water issues and, for example, exporting our knowledge and products relating to greenhouse horticulture. However, because we are a major exporter, we also have an interest in maintaining what we already have (business as usual). Sustainable transitions involve phasing out the activities that lead to the current unsustainable outcomes. This reduction hurts and is accompanied by tension. We see this in agriculture, for example. But even then, the question remains whether the best way forward for the Netherlands in the long term is to try to maintain what already exists or to innovate towards sustainable solutions. Or to put it another way, do we as a Dutch exporter want to remain "part of the problem" or grow into "part of the solution"? The answer does not seem so complicated to me, obviously "part of the solution." And the great thing is that this is also possible in a sector such as agriculture. We just need to change the rules of the game so that farmers and other stakeholders can also move forward with those solutions."

Theorem

10

China is having a major economic impact in South America and Africa, while this world power is still abundant with coal, oil and natural gas imports for its own national economy. The key to a successful climate agenda ultimately lies with the government in Beijing.

AN: "Disagree. First of all, I don't believe in "the key." There are all kinds of keys. By that, I mean the interventions that all kinds of actors can set in motion and thus lead to sustainable transitions through action and reaction. Moreover, this picture of China is not very nuanced. Yes, China still has its problems, but on many issues it is ahead of a country like the Netherlands. For example, in Beijing you only come across electric scooters and China is a global leader when it comes to the production of solar panels. I notice that an argument like, "it will only work if China also participates," is mainly used to avoid taking responsibility. Blaming others is always an option when dealing with complex issues. Change occurs as soon as you turn it around and consider what you can do yourself. Think big, act small is what I call it. And that means each of us can take action that helps create the solutions to the sustainability issues we face around the world." ♦