NORTH WEST ENERGY CLUSTER MAPPING & ACTION PLAN DEVELOPMENT
Figure 7
Predicted future gas prices
Source: Heren International Spot Gas Monitor quoted in “DTI response to consultation on Gas Issues� (URN 02/1306)
4.5.5
Natural Gas
The latest Transco 10 year statement shows supply from Morecambe bay falling steadily over the study period and by 2012 the supply could be as low as a third of the present day total. This would change the region to becoming a net importer of natural gas. However, these figures do not include the new fields being developed off the North West coastline (see section 5.2.1). If the North West does become a net importer of natural gas then this would strengthen the case for providing increased natural gas storage facilities within the region. As has been seen at Byley there would be planning implications to the siting of such facilities and there is therefore a need to involve Transco in early dialogue to ensure these issues can be given due consideration. 4.5.6
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
From the modeling work performed above it is possible to make some approximations as to the historical current and future greenhouse gas emissions of the region. The UK is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% under the Kyoto protocol as compared to emissions in 1990. In addition, the UK Government has also committed to reduce CO 2 emissions by 20% from this 1990 baseline. It is thus interesting to compare current and predicted emissions with those seen in 1990. A study by March Consulting Group for Norweb (the Regional Electricity Company covering a substantial part of the NW) in 1993 estimated the following energy and fuel use (in TWh) by the industrial, commercial transport and domestic sectors in 1990:
NORTH WEST DEVELOPMENT AGENCY
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