OKANAGAN VITICULTURE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Though viticulture currently makes a small contribution to the provincial economy, it is a significant economic sector for the Okanagan region, and recent growth of vineyards and wineries in the Valley has been impressive. There are now over 175 grape wineries in B.C. and several licences pending, up from just 13 in 1984.58 The viticulture industry is also closely tied to the tourism and leisure sectors, which are forecast to expand in future. The Okanagan Valley sits at the same latitude as northern French and German vineyards, but is also the northernmost tip of the Sonoran Desert, which extends into the Okanagan Valley from Mexico. The long summer days associated with the Okanagan’s northern latitude allow sugars to build up in the fruit, and this is countered by cool nights that prevent the breakdown of acids. The Valley’s unique climate, coupled with soil conditions resulting from pre-historic glacial movement, give this region micro-climates unlike those of any other growing region in the world. Over the period 1901-1999, minimum daily temperatures (night-time lows) measured at Vernon Coldstream Ranch in the Okanagan have increased by approximately two degrees Celsius.59 Daily maximum temperatures have also increased, but by a smaller margin. Temperature increases are corroborated by records at Kamloops, Summerland, and Cranbrook, indicating a warming trend for the region as a whole. This warming is associated with an increase in the number of frost-free days in the area; Summerland has averaged an increase of 3.1 frost-free days per decade from 1907-1993.60 Several meteorological monitoring stations in the Valley also show a trend toward increased rainfall over the last century. This reflects a larger global tendency toward higher precipitation, which is believed to be a consequence of intensification of the hydrological cycle in response to rising temperatures.61 This observed increase in precipitation should be seen in the context of population growth and sharply rising demand for water in the Okanagan Basin, a region that has the lowest per capita water supply in Canada.62
CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRIBUSINESS The agricultural sector is directly reliant on climatic variables like precipitation and temperature, and is thus likely to experience a wide range of unavoidable impacts as the climate changes. Rising temperatures may in future exceed the optimum growing conditions for crops. Conversely, warmer temperatures may lead to increases in crop productivity, and the opportunity to cultivate new crops. Changes in hydrological regimes will have a direct effect on agricultural production and production methods. Knock-on impacts on pests, diseases, and competing plants all mean that crops may no longer be viable in current locations under future climate conditions, and crops that remain viable may be of reduced quality.
7 8 / / C A S E S TU D I E S FACING THE ELEMENTS: BUILDING BUSINESS RESILIENCE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE