Signal or Noise? Qualified Opportunity Zones in Queens, New York (Poster)

Page 1

2018

qualified opportunity zone affect on development activity in queens, new york 2015 to 2018

ans eli n l oca l m ora n’s i

SIGNAL OR NOISE? QOZ’S IN QUEENS N 0

nick kunz & suprima bhele

5 Miles

qualified opportunity zones, 2017 dbscan core clusters & minor outliers real estate sales & building permit applications (early indicators of development activity)

leah meisterlin advanced spatial analysis columbia gsapp may 2019

2017

QOZ’S BEGIN

MANHATTAN

N

THE BRONX

0 qualified opportunity zones, 2017 high-high clustering high-low outlier insignificant low-high outlier low-low clustering

MANHATTAN

2016 2018

Despite a significant increase of development activity in Queens, New York in 2018 within Qualified Opportunity Zones (QOZ), the cluster analyses conducted in this study did not suggest an increase in the spatial concentration of development activity, defined by sales and permitting within QOZ's. This study asked if there was any early evidence, which suggests that QOZ's had attracted development within the spatial boundaries of QOZ's.

2015

This was determined by DBSCAN, which generated clusters by tuning the distance band by kNN density and a minimum cluster threshold set at the square root of the total number of sales and permits on an annual basis, while disregarding spatial outliers. It suggested that there were existing clusters of development activity around current QOZs since 2015 (before QOZ's were enacted in 2017).

2017 JFK INTL AIRPORT

Anselin Local Moran's I, revealed an insignificant change in the percentage of development activities within QOZ's, but the clusters within these zones had high significance. The low development activity among the clusters and low p-values suggested strong spillover effect of development clusters around the QOZ's.

BROOKLYN

QOZ’S BEGIN

20%

QOZ’S BEGIN

15%

2015

map projection: WGS 1984 Web Mercator

2016

2017

2018

2015

CLUSTER % WITHIN QOZ

2016

den appsity lic -ba ati sed ons sp witatia h nl c ois lus e ( ter dbs ing can of )

CLUSTER % WITHIN QOZ

The analyses suggested that the introduction of QOZ in 2017 did not have an immediately obvious or significant borough wide influence in the proportion of development within the incentivized areas in the following year.

10%

JFK INTL AIRPORT

15%

QOZ’S BEGIN

10%

5%

2015

2016

2017

2018

data sources:

New York City Department of Finance. “New York City Rolling Real Estate Sales Data”. New York City Department of Finance. 2019.

New York City Department of City Planning. "Administrative and Political Districts". New York City Open Data. 2019.

New York City Department of City Planning. "Facilities Database". New York City Open Data. 2019.

New York City Department of Building. "DOB Permit Issuance". New York City Open Data. 2019.

New York State of Opportunity. “The Opportunity Zone Program in New York State”. Empire State Development. 2019.

5 Miles


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