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here’s a good chance the economy’s pace of growth will surpass expectations if President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ambitious investment drive clocks up meaningful results – an outcome that’s seen as possible given the speed with which his administration has moved to clean out corruption and mismanagement at failing state-owned enterprises. There's been consensus that his goal of persuading both foreign and domestic business to plough $100bn (about R1.2tr) into the economy over the next five years is wishful thinking, given that key structural policy reforms are being hampered by sparring factions within the ANC ahead of next year’s general election. But the negative investment narrative appears to have turned positive, comments Kevin Cron, head of corporate, mergers & acquisitions and securities at Norton Rose Fulbright SA. Yet he does add: “A lot of people are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how things play out. The government is making the right noises but has to put its money where its mouth is.” However, some analysts believe that the President judgment of many South Africans is clouded by the Cyril Ramaphosa decade of corruption, mismanagement and pessimism that permeated both business and consumer confidence while former President Jacob Zuma Only about a third of Ramaphosa’s was in charge.
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GETTING BACK TO A STORY OF GROWTH t
President Cyril Ramaphosa aims to attract over R1tr in investment into the economy over the next five years. Consumer confidence has surged since he was elected, but will strong economic growth follow?
2019, saying that domestic demand has been held back for so long, that there will be real momentum now that confidence has returned. “Everyone forgets that SA has been through a tough time with 10 years of minimal growth. There is no reason to doubt that growth won’t be quickly restored to between 2% and 3%,” she says. “Are we likely to see any positive investment trend? I think there’s a strong and compelling argument that that will be the case,” says Khan. In a recent research note, Goldman Sachs predicted that the economy would grow by 2.4% this year, with “risks tilted to the upside” – market jargon that means it could be higher. “Taking as a baseline the magnitude of our forecast revision and our assumptions on the reform outlook, the market re-rating of growth expectations may be only halfway complete,” it said.
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Nedbank economist Isaac Matshego believes that only about a third of Ramaphosa’s $100bn investment target is likely to be met over the coming five years, but that would be enough to build the economy’s production base and generate a multiplier effect that would boost growth back to the 5% pace seen between 2005 and 2007. But that scenario hinges largely on the global environment. One important consideration to take into account is that the bulk of SA’s Higher growth manufactured products now go to Africa, Most think that the Treasury’s February Budget which means they are less affected by events in forecast for growth of 1.5% this year will be developed markets. investment target is likely to be met over exceeded. Finance minister Nhlanhla Nene said SA’s economy must grow by 2% for the the coming five years, but that would be in a recent interview on radio station 702 it was unemployment rate just to remain constant, enough to build the economy’s production base and generate a multiplier effect that likely to be closer to 2%, and some economists and a pace of between 4% and 5% would be would boost growth back to the 5% pace predict the rate of expansion will be higher than needed to make significant inroads into the seen between 2005 and 2007. the Reserve Bank’s latest estimate of 1.7% for unemployment rate of 26.7%, says Econometrix both 2018 and 2019. chief economist Azar Jammine. Razia Khan, Standard Chartered Bank’s Even if the economy picks up steam, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East, businesses would likely wait for six months to a year also believes that this will be the case, even though before they began hiring again, he adds. He believes she warns that growth in the first quarter of this that what is even more important is the removal of year will have been very weak – and possibly even structural constraints to employment – which are the contract, after data showing that activity in both the lack of appropriate skills, poor labour relations, and a lack manufacturing and mining sectors subsided. of entrepreneurial spirit. She expects growth of 2.2% this year and 2.9% in Tsitsi Hatendi-Matika, retail investment specialist
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