Baseline Scenario Trends National Emissions Projections Figure 3 depicts the total projected Canadian greenhouse gas emissions 8 in the absence of further government actions for selected years from 1990 to 2020. The projection suggests that Canadian emissions peaked in 2005. By 2020, emissions, including the contribution of LULUCF, are projected to be 720 Mt. This is comparable to the emissions level in 2000. Figure 3 – Total Canadian GHG emissions and projections (with no further government actions): 1990 to 2020 (Mt CO2e – incl. LULUCF)
800
Megatonnes
700 600 500
589
718
740
2000
2005
639
692
700
720
2010
2015
2020
400 300 200 100 0 1990
1995
Emissions Projections by Sector Over the last two decades, the Canadian economy has become significantly less energy intensive and there continues to be an accelerated decoupling between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions levels. Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were 692 Mt, and were essentially unchanged from 2009 levels with only a 0.25% increase. This means that between 2009 and 2010, Canada’s emissions remained steady despite economic growth of 3.2%. However, since a strong connection still remains between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions are projected to rise over the period, but at a rate lower than economic growth. As the economy grows beyond 2010, total emissions
8
The projection period, 2011 to 2020, includes the contribution of land use, land-use change and forestry. Canada’s Emissions Trends
19