How governments can navigate a disrupted world
Foresight
T
HE PANDEMIC HAS highlighted the
disruptive technology such as AI is an example of
importance of foresight. Of course, foresight
foresight, focused on opportunity rather than risk.
has been a hallmark of some agencies,
particularly those tasked with fighting adversaries
Foresight abilities generally focus on two themes—
or responding to disasters. The United States Coast
understanding trends and uncertainties and
Guard has used future alternative scenario
analyzing scenarios.
planning, currently called Project Evergreen, for more than two decades.1 The US intelligence
Figure 2 lays out an approach to foresight planning,
community has its Long-Range Analysis Unit; the
and how an organization could build a bias toward
Canadian Network for Defence and Security
action in the face of uncertainty.
Analysis uses foresight and future scenario forecasting to advance defense capabilities.2 But
While most government agencies should have some
recent events suggest the ability to anticipate
foresight capabilities, it doesn’t necessarily require a
disruption often brings significant value to all
separate foresight unit. Organizations can build these
levels of government. While current events have
abilities through numerous avenues, engaging with
brought attention to the downside of disruptive
academia, business, and others to understand risks
change, effective foresight can also be used to
and their implications. Budget and policy offices,
identify and embrace opportunities. Government
government innovation offices, and other entities can
looking ahead to the potential benefits of a
come together to engage in strategic foresight
FIGURE 2
Foresight approach to uncertainty, trends, and risks Continuously scan the environment to monitor and track early warning indicators while testing and refining plans and scenario-based contingencies.
Horizon scanning and monitoring Monitor and track structured and unstructured data sources on curated subtopics and metrics for specific interest rates.
DING T STAN RE ER ND D N S U
Scenario tracking
Discover important trends and their strategic implications as they emerge by leveraging natural language processing and machine learning to synthesize structured and unstructured sources.
FORESIGHT
Build a bias toward action in the face of uncertainty
ARIO ANALYS EN IS SC
Trends discovery and monitoring
Scenario-based strategy Develop an informed, robust strategy across multiple scenarios, with clearly articulated scenario-specific action plans, hedges, and bets.
Identify risks and questions
Scenario planning
Identify the major risks, questions, and choices the ecosystem faces to ensure coverage of driving forces.
Build future scenarios through qualitative and quantitative identification and analysis of relevant drivers for the most important topic areas.
Source: Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights
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