the magazine of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association
APRIL 2011
Interview with John Williamson CEO of Qualvu Statistical Reasoning vs. Magical Thinking Feed the Piggy Bank Beating Emotions in Investing If I Say ‘Cat’ – Quick, What Comes to Mind?
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APRIL 2011
vue VUE MAGAZINE IS PUBLISHED BY THE MARKETING RESEARCH AND INTELLIGENCE ASSOCIATION TEN TIMES A YEAR
COMMENTARY 4 6 10
Editor’s Vue President’s Letter Message from the Executive Director
SPECIAL FEATURE 12
INTERVIEW WITH JOHN WILLIAMSON, CEO OF QUALVU Qualvu’s CEO talks about a new platform that provides participant-powered interviews in face-to-face connections and more quality information from a smaller sample size than from a traditional focus group. by David Hamburg
FEATURES 16
STATISTICAL REASONING VS. MAGICAL THINKING There is no validity to the much cited tenet that a sample size of 30 makes it possible to derive statistically reliable estimates. by Chuck Chakrapani
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FEED THE PIGGY BANK The president of Perennial Asset Management warns us that all is not golden in the aftermath of the economic recession. There are serious problems that require attention, not the least of which is the Canadian consumer’s rising debt-to-income ratio. by Murray Belzberg
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BEATING EMOTIONS IN INVESTING: A CONVERSATION WITH ARMAND KESSOUS With over 23 years of experience providing wealth preservation strategies to several high and ultra-high net-worth families throughout Canada, Armand Kessous provides his perspective on emerging research and investment trends in the “new finance” era. by Claire Bazley IF I SAY ‘CAT’ – QUICK, WHAT COMES TO MIND? In the investigation of trade-mark infringement, word associations are fraught with difficulties and are, ultimately, not suitable tests for trade-mark confusion. by Ruth M. Corbin
INDUSTRY NEWS 30 34
People & Companies in the News Qualitative Research Registry (QRR)
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT 35
How Do You Feel about the New Maintenance of Certification Requirement?
COLUMNISTS 38
CI CORNER by David Lithwick and Enrico Codogno
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QUAL COL by Laura Craig
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THE COURT OF PUBLIC OPINION by Ruth M. Corbin
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STANDARDS by Donald Williams
ADDRESS The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association L’Association de la recherche et de l’intelligence marketing 2600 Skymark Avenue, Bldg. 4, Unit 104 Mississauga, Ontario L4W 5B2 Tel: (905) 602-6854 Toll Free: 1-888-602-MRIA (6742) Fax: (905) 602-6855 Email: vue@mria-arim.ca Website: www.mria-arim.ca PRODUCTION: LAYOUT/DESIGN LS Graphics Tel: (905) 743-0402, Toll Free: 1-800-400-8253 Fax: (905) 728-3931 Email: info@lsgraphics.com CONTACTS CHAIR, PUBLICATIONS Stephen Popiel, PhD, CMRP Senior Vice-President, Synovate Motoresearch Tel: (416) 964-6262 stephen.popiel@synovate.com EDITOR-IN-CHIEF David Hamburg, Hamburg Consulting (514) 748-1827 david.hamburg@sympatico.ca MANAGING EDITOR Anne Marie Gabriel, MRIA amgabriel@mria-arim.ca ASSOCIATE EDITORS Kevin Hare kevin.hare@rci.rogers.com Claire Bazley cbazley@indigo.ca COPY EDITOR Siegfried Betterman 2011 ADVERTISING RATES Frequent advertisers receive discounts. Details can be found by going to: www.mria-arim.ca/advertising/vue.asp Please email vue@mria-arim.ca to book your ad. The deadline for notice of advertising is the first of the previous month. All advertising material must be at the MRIA office on the 5th of the month. Original articles and Letters to the Editor are welcome. Materials will be reviewed by the Vue Editorial Team. If accepted for publication, they may be edited for length or clarity and placed in the electronic archives on the MRIA website. The opinions and conclusions expressed in Vue are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. Publishing Date: April, 2011 © 2011. All rights reserved. Copyright rests with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association or the author. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association or the author. All requests for permission for reproduction must be submitted to MRIA at publications@mria-arim.ca. RETURN UNDELIVERABLE CANADIAN ADDRESSES TO The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association L’Association de la recherche et de l’intelligence marketing 2600 Skymark Avenue, Bldg 4, Unit 104, Mississauga, Ontario L4W 5B2 Canadian Publications Mail Agreement #40033932 ISSN 1488-7320
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Editor’s Vue David Hamburg
Hard to believe spring has sprung after such a brutal winter in many parts of the country. I’m looking forward to embracing the mud and puddles. More important, I’m thrilled to present you with this month’s special feature on Qualvu CEO John Williamson and the groundbreaking online focus-group platform his company has developed. Qualvu’s program is a game-changer that enhances the quality of the information gathered, while lowering costs significantly. And those are just the broad strokes. Turning our attention to this month’s financial theme, Vue showcases a couple of the country’s leading investment experts. Back by popular demand is Murray Belzberg, president of Perennial Asset Management, who brings to light the meaning of Canadian consumers’ high debt-toincome ratio and dispels some of the misconceptions about the state of our country’s economic health. No doubt you’ll think twice about using your credit card after reading Murray’s insightful article. Claire Bazley’s incisive interview with Armand Kessous, from the wealth management firm Harrow Partners, sheds light on the quantitative research process that Armand uses to understand the performance of the markets. It’s a complex, multi-faceted approach, so please read this illuminating interview carefully. On a more academic note, we hear from one of the most respected names in the marketing research industry, Dr. Chuck Chakrapani, Toronto president of Leger Marketing, whose piece on statistical reasoning versus magical thinking presents a new perspective on sample size. Completing this month’s features is Ruth Corbin’s lively piece on word associations and what they prove. Enjoy the issue. Until next month.
C’est incroyable que le printemps puisse rebondir après un hiver aussi brutal dans plusieurs parties du pays. J’ai hâte de revoir la boue et les flaques d’eau. Mais ce qui est plus important, je suis ravi de vous présenter l’article de fond du mois sur le chef de la direction de Qualvu, John Williamson, et sur la plate-forme révolutionnaire que son entreprise a développée pour mener des groupes de discussion en ligne. Le programme de Qualvu change le jeu en augmentant la qualité des renseignements recueillis, tout en réduisant considérablement les coûts. Et je ne vous donne que les grandes lignes. Le thème de Vue ce mois-ci porte sur les finances et met en vedette deux des principaux experts en investissement au pays. De retour à la demande générale, Murray Belzberg, président de Perennial Asset Management, explique ce que signifie le rapport dette-revenu élevé des consommateurs canadiens et dissipe certaines idées erronées sur l’état de santé de l’économie au pays. Vous penserez sans doute deux fois avant d’utiliser votre carte de crédit après avoir lu l’article pénétrant de Murray. L’entrevue pointue de Claire Bazley avec Armand Kessous de la firme de gestion de patrimoine Harrow Partners nous éclaire sur le processus de recherche quantitative qu’Armand utilise pour comprendre le rendement des marchés. Il s’agit d’une approche complexe à multiples facettes que vous je vous incite à lire attentivement. Sur une note plus théorique, nous pouvons lire Chuck Chakrapani, Ph.D., président de Leger Marketing à Toronto, un des noms les plus respectés dans l’industrie de la recherche marketing, dont l’article sur le raisonnement statistique par rapport à la pensée magique présente de nouvelles perspectives sur la taille d’un échantillon. Et l’article vivant de Ruth Corbin sur les associations de mots et ce qu’elles prouvent complète le menu de ce mois. J’espère que vous aimerez ce numéro. Au mois prochain.
David
David
David Hamburg, Market Research Consultant, Hamburg Consulting Editor-in-Chief, Vue / Rédacteur en chef, Vue Email: david.hamburg@sympatico.ca • (514) 748-1827 • david_hamburg
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Letter from the President Kimberlee Niziol Jonas
It is with great honour that I accept the reins as president of our association. I feel humbled (as well as a little anxious) and yet ready to fulfill the responsibility entrusted to me. Humbled by the fact that I am the first client-side researcher to lead MRIA, and by the trust that has been placed in me. Yet supremely confident and energized by the realization that – with your support, as members and stakeholders, and with the continuing contributions that I know many other volunteer leaders and our staff team will make over the coming year – our association can propel our industry to new success and prosperity, and to higher prominence and respect in society. That objective won’t be easy to attain, but together we can achieve it through well-conceived planning and diligent execution.
I invite you to embrace change and be innovative as we look for opportunities in the year ahead. The past year has seen some fundamental shifts in many areas of our industry, including technology and its influence on how we communicate, gather and interpret information – and there are predictions of more rapid change to come. Nowadays, it’s a fact that change is constant. I invite you to embrace change and be innovative as we look for opportunities in the year ahead. Working together, we can continue to strengthen MRIA as the single authoritative voice of the marketing research and intelligence industry in Canada. While we are well-positioned for a successful year, we will need to continue to focus our efforts on the following areas: Education. Enhancement of career attraction, education, and professional development was identified, in 2008, as our number one strategic goal; and over the past three years, we’ve made significant investments in our education 6
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C’est un grand honneur pour moi de prendre les rênes de la présidence de notre association. Je ressens à la fois de l’humilité (et un peu d’anxiété) et le sentiment d’être prête à assumer les responsabilités qu’on m’a confiées. Je me sens humble puisque je suis le premier chercheur côté-client à diriger l’ARIM et à cause de la confiance que vous m’accordez. Par ailleurs, grâce à votre appui de membres et intervenants, et aux contributions continues que plusieurs autres leaders bénévoles et notre équipe d’employés feront au cours de l’année à venir, je suis très confiante et stimulée à l’idée que notre association est en mesure de propulser notre industrie vers de nouveaux niveaux de succès et de prospérité, et vers une proéminence et un respect accrus au sein de la société. Cet objectif ne sera pas facile à atteindre, mais nous pouvons y arriver ensemble par une planification bien conçue et une exécution minutieuse. Au cours de l’an dernier, notre industrie a subi certains changements fondamentaux dans plusieurs domaines, dont celui de la technologie et de son influence sur la façon dont nous communiquons, recueillons et interprétons l’information – et on prévoit des changements encore plus rapides dans l’avenir. De nos jours, le changement constant est une réalité. Je vous invite à accueillir favorablement le changement et à innover pendant que nous examinons les possibilités pour cette année. En travaillant ensemble, nous pouvons continuer à solidifier le rôle de l’ARIM en tant que voix unique qui fait autorité de l’industrie de la recherche et de l’intelligence marketing au Canada. Bien que nous soyons bien positionnés pour la réussite cette année, nous devons continuer à concentrer nos efforts sur les éléments suivants : La formation. En 2008, nous avons déterminé que l’amélioration de l’attrait de la carrière, de la formation et du développement professionnel serait notre principal but et au cours des trois dernières années, nous avons investi considérablement dans nos programmes de formation et dans l’accessibilité en ligne à nos produits. En atteignant notre but
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programs and in making our offerings available online. By delivering on the goal of having all CMRP courses available online by the end of 2011, we will improve access to our courses nationally, for our students and members, while presenting an attractive incentive for cross-membership partnerships with other associations. Inter-association relationships. Expanding MRIA’s presence to other associations will strengthen the co-operative, reciprocal relationships we already enjoy, and allow us to continue to learn from relevant comparators and share best practices. Government relations. We must continue our outreach and communication initiatives with the federal government, with other levels of government, and with government agencies in order to strengthen relationships and reinforce the value of public opinion and survey research services – to government and to our democratic society generally. You Speak. We Listen. Things Improve. Member value and involvement. We need to continue to provide a compelling value proposition for all members, while providing the opportunity to engage actively in the affairs of the association and connect with other members in the research community, at both the chapter and national levels. Advancing the practice of online research. Our association must actively support and advocate for online research, as this methodology is now the dominant one in Canada, having supplanted telephone research in 2009. A quote that I find inspiring is this: “It’s not enough to be good if you have the ability to be better. It is not enough to be very good if you have the ability to be great” (Alberta Lee Cox). I truly believe that MRIA has the ability to be great. But in order to be great, we need to ensure that we have looked forward and planned strategically for the future. A key priority for my presidential year, therefore, will be to develop a new strategic plan for our association. Our goals in developing this strategic plan will be to review MRIA’s key
de rendre accessibles en ligne tous les cours de la désignation de PARM avant la fin de 2011, nous améliorerons l’accès à ces cours dans tout le pays pour nos étudiants et membres, tout en offrant un incitatif attrayant à des partenariats avec des membres d’autres associations. Relations inter-associations. Le déploiement de la présence de l’ARIM auprès d’autres associations consolidera les relations de coopération et de réciprocité dont nous profitons déjà et nous permettra de continuer d’apprendre des comparateurs pertinents et de partager des pratiques exemplaires. Les relations gouvernementales. Nous devons poursuivre nos initiatives de rayonnement et de communication auprès du gouvernement fédéral, des autres paliers de gouvernement et des organismes gouvernementaux afin de solidifier ces relations et de renforcer la valeur que représentent les services de sondages et de recherche sur l’opinion publique – pour les gouvernements et pour notre société démocratique en général. Vous parlez. Nous écoutons. Les choses s’améliorent. La valeur pour les membres et leur participation. Nous devons continuer d’offrir une proposition de valeur incontestable tout en fournissant des occasions de participer activement aux activités de l’association et d’établir des contacts avec d’autres membres de la collectivité de la recherche au niveau des chapitres et au niveau national. Faire progresser la pratique de la recherche en ligne. Notre association doit appuyer activement et promouvoir la recherche en ligne étant donné que cette technologie est maintenant dominante au Canada, ayant supplanté la recherche par téléphone en 2009. Voici une citation qui, selon moi, est inspirante : « Il ne suffit pas d’être bon si on a la capacité d’être meilleur. Il ne suffit pas d’être très bon si on a la capacité d’être extraordinaire. » – Alberta Lee Cox Je crois fermement que l’ARIM a la capacité d’être extraordinaire. Mais pour y parvenir, nous devons analyser l’avenir et le planifier stratégiquement. Une priorité clé de mon année de présidence sera donc d’élaborer un nouveau plan stratégique pour notre vue April 2011
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strategic statements (vision, mission, goals and strategy) and to identify those primary objectives that will command a dominant share of the association’s resources from 2012 to 2014. We’ll be asking for member input as part of that strategic development process, and yours will be greatly appreciated. We should all be extremely proud of the significant progress that MRIA has made over the past year, and equally proud of the milestones achieved since MRIA was established six years ago. I would like to thank the dedicated staff of MRIA: the members of the 2010–2011 national board of directors and our portfolio chairs, as well as the volunteers from across the country who serve on the boards and committees of chapters, divisions and councils – for their passion, dedication, and hard work – not to mention you, our members, whose financial and moral support have been instrumental in our association’s significant successes. I am truly looking forward to serving as your president, and I welcome your suggestions and comments as we move ahead in MRIA’s 2011–2012 year. In closing, I want to express sincere thanks, on behalf of us all, to our outgoing president, Ed Gibson. As the first MRIA president from Western Canada, Ed embraced the spirit of Vancouver 2010 and demonstrated a broad, inclusive strategic vision, coupled with an energetic Canadian spirit and work ethic in his leadership of our association this past year. I look forward to having the benefit of Ed’s sage counsel, as immediate past-president, over the next year.
Kimberlee Niziol Jonas Market Research Manager GlaxoSmithKline kimberlee.a.nizioljonas@gsk.com (905) 814-3500
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association. Nos buts au cours de cette élaboration seront de réviser les principaux énoncés stratégiques de l’ARIM (vision, mission, buts et stratégie) et de déterminer les objectifs clés qui occuperont une position dominante par rapport aux ressources de l’association de 2012 à 2014. Nous vous inviterons en tant que membres à nous faire part de vos commentaires au cours du processus d’élaboration de la stratégie et nous les apprécierons grandement. Nous devons tous être très fiers du progrès considérable que l’ARIM a accompli au cours de l’année qui vient de s’écouler, de même que des jalons atteints depuis sa création il y a six ans. Je tiens à remercier le personnel dévoué de l’ARIM : les administrateurs du conseil d’administration national de 2010-2011, nos présidents et présidentes de portefeuille, et tous les bénévoles au pays qui siègent à des conseils et comités de chapitres, de divisions et de conseils – de votre passion, dévouement et travail ardu – sans oublier nos membres dont l’appui financier et moral a été déterminant pour les succès considérables de notre association. Je suis ravie de pouvoir vous servir comme présidente et je vous invite à me faire part de vos suggestions et de vos commentaires tout au long de l’an 2011-2012 de l’ARIM. En terminant, je tiens à remercier sincèrement, en notre nom à tous, le président sortant Ed Gibson. En tant que premier président de l’Ouest du Canada, Ed a saisi l’esprit de Vancouver 2010 et a fait montre d’une grande vision stratégique, accompagnée d’un souffle canadien énergique et d’un sens de l’éthique dans sa direction de notre association l’an dernier. Je compte profiter des sages conseils d’Ed, notre président sortant, au cours de l’année à venir.
Kimberlee Niziol Jonas Directrice de la recherche marketing GlaxoSmithKline kimberlee.a.nizioljonas@gsk.com (905) 814-3500
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Message from the Executive Director Brendan Wycks
Solidifying Upswing in Public Perception of Survey Research: Latest VoxPop Survey MRIA’s latest VoxPop survey – the ninth in our association’s public information campaign, which began in the fall of 2007, and the fourth to track public perceptions of survey research – shows a solidifying of the significant positive change that our industry has achieved since the baseline survey. Our most recent survey was fielded pro bono for the association by Harris-Decima in February and early March of 2011. The previous survey, also conducted by Harris-Decima, was fielded in February 2010. The original baseline survey was fielded in September 2007 and then repeated in February 2009. The first VoxPop survey, in 2007, established a baseline on attitudes towards survey research by asking respondents to agree or disagree with the following statements: • Public opinion surveys serve a useful societal purpose. • Research surveys give people an opportunity to provide feedback to manufacturers and other organizations about the products and services they provide. • Research surveys give people an opportunity to provide feedback on public policy issues. • Participating in research surveys is in my best interest. • Research surveys are an invasion of privacy. • Survey research firms maintain the confidentiality of people’s answers. The 2011 results indicate a consolidation of the significant improvement that our industry has achieved in almost all categories when compared to the baseline. Fewer Canadians see surveys as an invasion of privacy, and more of them trust research firms to protect the confidentiality of their answers, as these VoxPop results show: • Only 28% of adult Canadians in 2011 agree with the statement that research surveys are an invasion of privacy, compared with 42% in 2007, 30% in 2009, and 28% in 2010. • 70% of adult Canadians in 2011 agree that survey research firms maintain the confidentiality of people’s answers, versus 58% in 2007, 70% in 2009, and 71% in 2010. 10
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Consolidation d’une meilleure perception publique de la recherche-sondage : le récent sondage VoxPop Le plus récent sondage VoxPop de l’ARIM – le neuvième de notre campagne d’information du public lancée à l’automne 2007 et le quatrième à faire le suivi des perceptions du public à l’égard de la recherche-sondage – révèle la consolidation d’un changement positif considérable dont notre industrie bénéficie depuis le sondage initial. Harris-Decima a effectué ce récent sondage gratuitement pour nous en février et au début de mars 2011. Le sondage précédent, effectué également par Harris-Decima, s’est déroulé en février 2010. L’initial s’est déroulé en février 2007 et le suivant en février 2009. Le premier sondage VoxPop en 2007 a établi les attitudes de base à l’égard de la recherche-sondage en demandant aux répondants s’ils étaient ou non d’accord avec les énoncés suivants : • La raison d’être des sondages sur l’opinion publique comporte une dimension sociétale utile. • Les recherches-sondages donnent aux gens la possibilité de fournir des commentaires aux fabricants et d’autres organisations sur les produits et services qu’ils offrent. • Les recherches-sondages donnent aux gens la possibilité de fournir des commentaires sur des questions de politiques gouvernementales. • En participant à des recherches-sondages je satisfais à mes meilleurs intérêts. • Les recherches-sondages sont une invasion de la vie privée. • Les firmes de recherche-sondage préservent la confidentialité des réponses. Les résultats de 2011 révèlent une consolidation de l’amélioration significative réalisée par notre industrie dans presque toutes les catégories comparativement aux résultats initiaux. Moins de Canadiens perçoivent les sondages comme une invasion de leur vie privée; un plus grand nombre ont confiance que les firmes de sondage protègent la confidentialité de leurs réponses. • Seulement 28 % des adultes canadiens en 2011 sont d’accord avec l’énoncé que les recherches-sondages sont une invasion de la vie privée, comparativement à 42 % en 2007, 30 % en 2009 et 28 % en 2010. • 70 % des adultes canadiens en 2011 sont d’accord que les firmes de recherche-sondage préservent la confidentialité des réponses, par rapport à 58 % en 2007, 70 % en 2009 et 71 % en 2010. Notre sondage VoxPop de 2011 a aussi produit les résultats suivants, comparativement à ceux de 2010, 2009 et 2007 :
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Our 2011 VoxPop survey also produced the following results, compared with the 2010, 2009, and 2007 findings: • 69% of adult Canadians agree that participating in research surveys is in their best interest, versus 58% in 2007, 72% in 2009, and 68% in 2010. • 84% of adult Canadians agree that research surveys serve a useful societal purpose, versus 81% in 2007, 84% in 2009, and 81% in 2010. • 88% of adult Canadians agree that research surveys give people the opportunity to provide feedback to manufacturers and other organizations about their products and services, versus 88% in 2007, 88% in 2009, and 86% in 2010. • 78% of adult Canadians agree that research surveys give people the opportunity to provide feedback on public policy issues, versus 74% in 2007, 79% in 2009, and 74% in 2010. The latest MRIA survey also tested VoxPop’s core message by asking respondents to agree or disagree with the following statement: Public opinion research strengthens Canada’s democracy by giving people a say in important decisions by governments and corporations. The survey found that, nationally, 61% of adult Canadians believe this statement to be true. Support for the statement was up two percentage points from 2010 and was uniform across all regions of the country.
• 69 % des adultes canadiens sont d’accord que leur participation aux recherches-sondages est dans leur meilleur intérêt, par rapport à 58 % en 2007, 72 % en 2009, et 68 % en 2010. • 84 % des adultes canadiens sont d’accord que les recherchessondages ont une utilité sociétale, par rapport à 81 % en 2007, 84 % en 2009 et 81 % en 2010. • 88% des adultes canadiens sont d’accord que les recherchessondages donnent aux gens l’occasion de fournir des commentaires aux fabricants et à d’autres organisations au sujet de leurs produits et services, par rapport à 88 % en 2007, 88 % en 2009 et 86 % en 2010. • 78% des adultes canadiens sont d’accord que les recherchessondages donnent aux gens l’occasion de fournir des commentaires sur des questions de politiques gouvernementales, par rapport à 74 % en 2007, 79 % en 2009 et 74 % en 2010. Le récent sondage de l’ARIM a également testé le message clé de VoxPop en demandant aux répondants s’ils étaient ou non d’accord avec l’énoncé suivant : « La recherche sur l’opinion publique renforce la démocratie canadienne en offrant aux gens une voix dans des décisions importantes prises par les gouvernements et les entreprises. » Le sondage a révélé qu’à l’échelle nationale, 61 % des adultes canadiens croient que l’énoncé dit vrai. L’appui accordé à l’énoncé a augmenté de 2 points de pourcentage depuis 2010 et de façon uniforme dans toutes les régions du pays.
Incidence of Mugging and Sugging Assaults Has Increased Our latest VoxPop survey also asked respondents about their exposure to instances of marketing under the guise of interviewing (mugging) and soliciting under the guise of interviewing (sugging) over the past twelve months. The survey found that the incidence of mugging and sugging has increased over the past year, and is now at 41% (versus 41% in 2007, 36% in 2009, and 36% in 2010). Nationally, just 31% of Canadians are aware that any attempt to sell or raise money following a request to participate in a survey is an illegal activity. There will be more on mugging, sugging and MRIA’s efforts in this area, and on other insights from our VoxPop work, in a future column. MRIA’s latest VoxPop survey was fielded by Harris-Decima via telephone between February 24 and March 6, 2011, with a national random sample of 2,035 adult Canadians aged 18 years and over, and is considered accurate to within ± 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Incidences d’attaques de mugging et de sugging en hausse
Brendan Wycks, BA, MBA, CAE Executive Director Marketing Research and Intelligence Association bwycks@mria-arim.ca (905) 602-6854 ext. 8724
Nous avons profité de notre plus récent sondage VoxPop pour interroger les répondants sur leur exposition au marketing déguisé en entrevue (mugging) et à la sollicitation déguisée en entrevue (sugging) au cours des douze derniers mois. Le sondage a révélé que les incidences de mugging et de sugging étaient en hausse l’an dernier à 41 % (par rapport à 41 % en 2007, 36 % en 2009 et 36 % en 2010). À l’échelle nationale, seulement 31 % des Canadiens sont conscients que toute tentative de vendre ou de lever des fonds à la suite d’une demande de participation à un sondage est illégale. Je reviendrai dans une chronique future sur le mugging, le sugging et les efforts déployés par l’ARIM dans ce domaine, et sur d’autres perspectives découlant de nos VoxPop. Le dernier sondage VoxPop de l’ARIM a été mené au téléphone par Harris-Decima, entre le 24 février et le 6 mars 2011, auprès d’un échantillon aléatoire national de 2035 adultes canadiens de 18 ans et plus, et les résultats sont considérés exacts à plus ou moins 2,2 %, 19 fois sur 20.
Brendan Wycks, BA, MBA, CAE Directeur général L’ Association de la recherche et de l’intelligence marketing bwycks@mria-arim.ca (905) 602-6854 poste 8724
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Interview with John Williamson, CEO of Qualvu
Colorado-based Qualvu is an innovating high-tech company that has developed user-driven online video research technologies, offering a platform for businesses and their researchers that enables them to gain rich insights into the opinions, views and attitudes of their customers, focus groups, and other constituents they want to reach. David Hamburg
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Left to right: Rodney Holm, CTO Brooks Pettus, COO John Williamson, CEO
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Your online focus group platform is innovative. I’m surprised that I hadn’t heard about it before.
True, we’ve been flying under the radar. We’re very much technologists; our platform is something that is completely proprietary, from the ground up. We have a fairly aggressive operations model whereby we have hired a team of salespeople, about twenty, who are actively engaged in sharing the Qualvu message. We have grown a lot and have assembled a strong marketing team, which is why I think we are doing very well. My first impression of your product was that you are to the focus group what GoToMeeting.com is to the faceto-face meeting.
Exactly. If we could use that analogy, it’s similar to what SurveyMonkey is to quantitative research. When we first got into this, there was relatively little online innovation for focus groups in the qualitative space. Focus groups were live, but there was really no way to duplicate that experience online. We took the Internet and used it to produce freakish cost-savings with the ability to do it on a local or regional basis with great speed. We said that if we could crack the code around quality and get people to deliver what we expect in terms of the level of depth, geographic regions, and candour, and then replicate that online, then we would have a winning product. Beats doing qualitative interviews by phone, where there is no visual experience. There’s a lot of information you can pick up just from the visual aspect of the interview. I’m actually surprised no one has done it before.
That’s right. When we first started this, we asked ourselves, “How can we get quality interviews online through streaming video and face-to-face connections?” We did that, but we then asked, “How can we get consumers to participate in an asynchronous way?” With our system, when you push a button, there is a pre-recorded moderator who sets in motion a series of video sessions that are completely participant powered. They are self-serve videos. We found that with this method you can record people in environments where they are completely comfortable, where they are most relaxed and, more importantly, where they are usually using their interactive brains naturally. Secondly, there is that convenience factor where they are doing it on their own time, and that really enables them to relax; there are no time limits on how much video they can record. And this video program also prompts them in different ways – in, essentially, what you would refer to as probing. With focus groups, there is peer pressure. In fact a lot of the moderators’ skill is in how they are able to make the participants feel comfortable and get them to open up. In our world, the atmosphere is completely devoid of any peer
pressure. We have even constructed the platform so that, when participants push the right buttons, the moderator goes away. They are fully on their own, airing their own intelligent answers. That lack of peer pressure enables us to see and hear things that participants would normally not share, even with a confidant in some cases. We find that is how they approach things like brushing their teeth, washing their hair, or even buying a car. We get below the surface reasons, below the vanity of your typical response. People have a tendency to come through, when they are alone, with candour: that is nothing less than remarkable. Left on their own, people will share sensibly when there is nobody there to interrupt them. We have designed a platform that gives the person who is watching the data the ability to probe by pushing a button and adding a follow-up question. So the participant can log in, see an alert, and see a follow-up question. We believe that, when consumers are left on their own, they will share with remarkable and in-depth candour, and give complete answers. It all sounds very technologically advanced.
It is, because we are very much a technology company. We also realized the need to have research expertise in-house – research strategy people – in order to bring to bear a depth of qualitative research and to understand the construct of projects. These people know how to ask the right questions. The other side of our office looks like an Internet startup. We have a fairly large team of developers working here full-time, continually innovating all of our systems so that data can be turned into intelligence. When we first started developing qualitative methods during our early days, we realized that knowledge in collecting the video is not as important as what you do with it. How do we create a technology and turn it into video highlight reels? So tell us how you do that.
First, we figure out what your business objective is; then we create a question guide, which is a series of pre-recorded video sessions that are recorded by a moderator. Next, we set up the project. As part of the collection process, screeners go to find the right people. Then, we create the questions to qualify those people, but we also do some innovative things; for example, we created an algorithm to ask questions that will give us the best answers from the participants. These questions may concern how consumers use a product, how they shop, or how they respond to media ads. So this is more than just a software program. You are really offering a technologically advanced turnkey research solution. There is also a consulting aspect to your service.
Yes, we really have two ways that our clients can use our system. We can help them hone in on their strategic objectives; we can look at the burning questions that we are vue April 2011
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aiming to solve in a particular project. Then we apply our resources to building the right project and getting people involved asking the right questions. We also provide clients with an analysis in the form of a video report. In short, we combine analysis with the real voice of the customer. It really is powerful, to actually hear your consumers talking about these things in their homes. You will see and hear consumers shaving or shopping online for a car. The simplest way that they can use it is to employ the DIY (do it yourself ) module. Users can log in and press the “build my project” button and actually set up their own project. They can ask whatever questions they want, decide who they want to reach – just by pressing a submit button. This launches an automated process in which questions are submitted to the interface, to people who are logged in and recruited. The client logs in to what we call our client portal, where they can see the information or search a keyword or a key phrase. They can even produce their own highlight reels using our video editing tools. The system is very intuitive. How it’s used all depends on the business case and users’ objectives in utilizing our service. Another advantage of your platform is probably that you save a lot of money by not going to live focus groups. It also seems to be saving on the brainwork part of it. Lots of the clients’ questions are basically pre-programmed to be asked; the clients don’t have to do that part themselves.
We were actually getting ready to launch a series of templates that are tailor-made for the size of your company, from small to a Fortune 2000–sized company. We have been able to create an incredible cost compression around getting this kind of information from people face-to-face. You will be able to test an ad simply by pressing the “test the ad” button. We will automatically compile a project of appropriate size and, virtually automatically, bring the cost down even lower. Quality projects can go for as low as $2,000 for a fairly sophisticated focus group–quality experience.
expire the information. That data is available to you for as long as you need it. Understand that there is a tremendous amount of data in there that you may not need right now, but you can go back to that data time and time again. Imagine if you do multiple sessions: all of that data is searchable. We’ve even had clients send us DVDs with data and ask us to upload it, digitize it to a quality platform, and make it searchable. We will actually time-stamp that reel so it can be searchable to the focus group session. Any key points we didn’t discuss?
To summarize, I’d say that the key point to all this is the innovation. It’s about getting a depth of consumer qualitative research that cannot be acquired traditionally. And it’s streamlined, easy to use, quickly executed, and much better priced than a live focus group session. Lastly and most importantly, the data is true; it’s from consumers who are more candid – to the point where our clients are often surprised. This is critical. If you are not making business decisions based, fundamentally, on accurate information, then you are just barking up the wrong tree. This is about using stream of consciousness to gain insight, not about filling out forms. It’s about talking, about explaining yourself, reacting to something in the moment. If you got this level of interaction in a focus group, it could be overwhelming. But we’re actually collecting more data per person than you get in a focus group. That’s why it’s so important to have at your disposal the tools to be able to mine that information, to answer your questions, and to get direct answers that will help you make those business decisions. We can build a video reel of this experience for the company within days. Alternatively, you can have us take a look at it and provide you with analysis, feedback and observations. It’s really all up to the customer. This all sounds so great, John, so groundbreaking for qualitative research, that I’m sure it will meet with tremendous success. We’ll be following Qualvu closely. Thanks for your time.
Is the feedback “truer” compared to a live focus group?
It definitely is truer. In fact, we’re able to get more quality information from a smaller sample size than you’d get from a focus group. Consider that the average focus group session lasts two hours, which also includes ten to twenty minutes of ice-breaker time. With us, we typically get between three and a half to five minutes of uninterrupted feedback every time a participant presses the record button. And the average product has seven video sessions, so you’re looking at between twenty-five and thirty minutes of uninterrupted feedback from every participant. So this is all done with a cloud environment?
Yes. I think that there is also an advantage to having this within a client portal, which we provide. We actually never 14
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Tell us about one of your success stories.
Some of the success stories are from users of personal hygiene products like toothbrushes and razors. We were able to provide our client completely unencumbered access to everyday consumers who were using their product in the bathroom every morning. They were setting up cams on the vanities and talking to us through the entire experience, telling us not just what they were thinking, but what they were doing. We’ve never had this level of access. This is truly qualitative research in its raw form, and not through a third party environment in an office building. This was about actually watching and capturing those thoughts, when the participants were in the appropriate mood, at six in the morning or whenever it was they were getting ready. This is one example of where these experiences happen, and in a context where they are most valuable.
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Statistical Reasoning vs. Magical Thinking Shamanism as Statistical Knowledge: Is a Sample Size of 30 All You Need?
One of the most respected names in the marketing research industry weighs in against the notion that a sample size of 30 makes it possible to derive reliable statistical estimates. There is, he explains, no support for this, or any other, magical number.
Chuck Chakrapani, PhD, CMRP Denis Diderot, the eminent encyclopedist, was visiting the Russian court just before the French Revolution. With his wit and charm, he began converting nobility to his atheistic ways. Alarmed by this, the czarina commissioned Euler, the famed mathematician, to debate Diderot. Told that Euler had found a mathematical proof for the existence of god, Diderot was hauled into court to debate the mathematician, who revealed his proof in all its gravity: “(a + bn)/n = x. Therefore god exists. What is your response?” The brilliant Diderot had only a rudimentary knowledge of mathematics and didn’t realize that the equation had nothing to do with the existence of god. He abruptly left the court and returned to France, much to the relief of the czarina. As marketing researchers, we cannot afford to be as ignorant of formulas and numbers as Diderot was, and we try to become numerate. Some of us succeed, while others succumb to magical thinking, attributing supernatural powers to barely understood statistical statements, theorems and conclusions. My thinking on this subject was triggered by a discussion in which I said that small samples of 30 or 16
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even around 50 are inadequate to draw numeric conclusions about a relevant population, especially if the survey is of the type such as street intercepts or mall surveys. The person defending such research countered with the implied argument that, even in such conditions, a sample of 30 is good enough to draw numeric conclusions. The support for a sample size of 30 is assumed to come from the central limit theorem. Except that it doesn’t. This got me reflecting on magical thinking in general and sample sizes in particular. Where does it come from, the idea that there is this magical number 30, and if you have a sample of 30, you can derive reliable quantitative estimates from it? The central limit theorem states only that the mean of a sufficiently large number of independent random variables, each with finite mean and variance, will be approximately normally distributed. The theorem deliberately does not define what “large” means. If it could be proven that it is 30, or any other number for that matter, the theorem would have said so. But it does not.
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Even more importantly, the theorem is based on theoretically perfect samples with replacement, not the samples we achieve in marketing research surveys. Where the curve generated by repeated samples of a given size converges to a normal curve would depend on the underlying distribution from which the sample is drawn and the variability with which it is associated. If the underlying distribution is perfectly normal and the sample is perfectly random with no non-response, coverage bias, or non-sampling error, it may approximate the normal curve quickly. If the underlying distribution is not normal or is skewed, we need larger samples. The theorem also says that, as the sample becomes large, the distribution of sample means becomes approximately normal (not precisely normal). If the central limit theorem is silent about the meaning of “large,” where does the shamanistic reverence for 30 as the sample size carrying mighty powers come from? It comes from artificial computer simulation experiments presented in introductory textbooks. These experiments take repeated idealized computer samples (assuming no error component) from a normal distribution, sometimes from skewed distributions. But we know that many attributes in real life are not normally distributed. For example, consumer purchases follow a negative binomial distribution and not a normal distribution. Admission in maternity wards will likely follow Poisson distribution rather than a normal distribution. In a simulation exercise involving four different underlying distributions (normal, uniform, beta and gamma) carried out by Professor Murtaza Haider of the Ted Rogers School of Management, it took a sample of 4,500 (not 30) for the t-value to converge precisely to the z-values needed for a normal distribution. This is after assuming perfect random sampling, 100 per cent response rate, and no coverage error! An obvious fact is that marketing research surveys differ markedly from the computer simulation exercises quoted in introductory textbooks in two crucial ways: First, in computer simulation, every sample is a perfect simple random sample. This is simply not possible in survey research. It is absurd to believe (magical thinking?) that our surveys, no matter how well they are conducted, achieve anything close to simple random sampling. The best we can hope for is that, in well-executed surveys, the results could approximate those generated by random samples. Second, the computer simulations of the central limit theorem do not include non-coverage, non-response, or non-sampling errors. In research surveys these are perennial problems. For example, the average response rate in surveys is 12 per cent, as opposed to an assumed 100 per cent response rate in computer simulations!
Therefore, it is naïve to assume that, just because computer-drawn samples of 30 achieve approximate convergence in simulation exercises, any sample of 30 would work the same way in survey research when conditions differ markedly. The central limit theorem is a very important theorem in statistics. It provides the basis for much of our sampling procedures. The fact that even small samples can converge to normality is interesting and has profound implications for marketing and social research. But it stretches credulity to take an inductive leap and believe that, therefore, the number 30 has magical properties and would work irrespective of the underlying distribution, irrespective of where and how sample is chosen, irrespective of clustering, irrespective of non-response, irrespective of nonrandomness, and irrespective of other non-sampling errors that accompany marketing research studies. The central limit theorem simply does not say it, nor is there any empirical support for it. Non-response is a reality in any marketing researcher’s work life. The accompanying table shows what effect nonresponse can have on our results. Non-response is not taken into account in the “proof ” offered by simulation exercises that appear in textbooks to illustrate that even a sample size of 30, under some conditions, could result in convergence. As a matter of fact, there is no magic in a sample of 100 either (and I consider this number the approximate minimum for certain types of studies for control conditions). I use 100 because it is generally considered a reasonable minimum sample size by marketing researchers, based on their experience with several thousand studies over several decades. Also, at around this point, the t-test values begin to get much closer to the z-scores based on the normal curve. All that the central limit theorem says is that “as the sample size becomes large … .” We can either apply statistical thinking and base our interpretation of what a “large number” might be in a given context, preferably, on empirical observations (subject to revision, should empirical results show otherwise), or succumb to a shallow interpretation of the theorem by attributing magical properties to some arbitrary number such as 30. What is completely overlooked in this irrelevant invocation of the supposed sacredness and the might of the sample of 30 is the matter of the validity of the survey itself. I do not hold that 30 is an inadequate sample size in all contexts. For example, to assess the impact of a fertilizer on crops, it is possible to take just 10 homogeneous plots of land, divide each into two parts, apply the fertilizer to one part and not to the other part. The crop yields of these 10 split plots could potentially provide valid experimental results as to the efficacy of the fertilizer. Even in cases where vue April 2011
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The above table illustrates what could happen with non-response in a case in which the true incidence is 30%. Let us assume that the response rate is 50%. If the incidence rate among non-responders is 35%, then our sample could potentially show an incidence rate that is as low as 25%. (This is the value shown in a cell that intersects a 50% response rate and a 35% incidence rate among non-responders.)
our sample is otherwise small, even when it is less than 30, we can apply non-parametric tests or t-tests, as William Gossett famously did at Guinness Breweries. So the proper question should be “Is the sample size adequate for the intended purpose?” (In our hypothetical example, the purpose is to establish a quantitative estimate in street survey research, with all its attendant imperfections of sample selection.) For some problems, a sample size of 10 may be adequate; for others (such as data mining or text mining of social media that culls data from millions of online conversations), a sample of 10,000 may be considered small. One cannot decide on the sample size based on statistical formulas alone without considering the context. Hardly any statistics books written by statisticians (as opposed to those by social scientists and business professors) say that 30 is an adequate sample size or state that the central limit theorem endorses a sample size of 30 in survey research contexts, where non-coverage and non-response are major issues. The samples referred to in the central limit theorem are pure random samples and not samples that are subject to coverage, non-response, and non-sampling errors. Mathematical theorems are precisely worded for a reason. Change or ignore a couple of words in a theorem and 18
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ignore an assumption, and you change the meaning of it. Take the central limit theorem: Change “large number” to “a sample size of 30,” change “approximately” to “exactly,” and ignore the fact that the samples referred to in the theorem are error-free, and voila! We have transformed a sophisticated statistical theorem into street magic. As Aldous Huxley said, “Facts are ventriloquists’ dummies. Sitting on a wise man’s knee they may be made to utter words of wisdom; elsewhere, they say nothing, or talk nonsense.” It applies equally, if not more so, to statistical facts. They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. And so it is. Dr. Chuck Chakrapani, president (Toronto) of Léger Marketing and distinguished visiting professor at the Ted Rogers School of Management, is a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, fellow of MRIA, and editor of Marketing Research. He is the chief knowledge officer of Blackstone Group, Chicago, and a board member of Marketing Research Institute International. Chuck is the author of hundreds of articles and over a dozen books. His latest is a university-level text, Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making (2010), co-authored with Black and Castillo.
Opinionology
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The president of Perennial Asset Management warns us that all is not golden in the aftermath of the economic recession. There are serious problems that require attention, not the least of which is the Canadian consumer’s rising debt-to-income ratio.
Murray Belzberg
Feed the Piggy Bank Okay, everyone, time to exhale. The U.S. economic recovery is well underway, so you can breathe a longawaited sigh of relief and sit back and watch your investment portfolios grow with nary a concern. Not so quick: There’s still the pesky little issue of recordhigh consumer debt. The extremely high debt-to-income ratio casts a gloom on the otherwise sparkling visage of the current equity market, particularly here in Canada. In fact, the issue isn’t really trivial at all, as the consumer debt bubble may have a negative and lasting impact on corporate profits – and investor returns – for years to come. North Americans have been living beyond their means for decades, but continually falling interest rates have enabled consumers to handle the increased debt. Given that 20
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rates do not have much further they can fall, it looks like the party may finally be over. In the U.S., consumer savings rates are up significantly, to more than five per cent of net disposable income, after hitting virtually zero just before the recession started in 2007-2008. Very simply, this means that people in the U.S. are spending less and, for the first time in a generation, actually working to reduce their debt load. This doesn’t bode well for the corporate profit machine that relies so heavily on American consumers to fuel growth. Compounding the issue is the fact that short-term interest rates are being kept abnormally low by the U.S. Federal Reserve in order to stimulate the economy. Raising rates to reverse this abnormal position will provide even
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more incentive for consumers to stop spending and focus more on paying down their debt. Of course, here in Canada, we’ve largely been sheltered from the global economic storm that deluged the U.S. and Europe, because of our strong resource revenues and more conservatively managed banks. However, you simply have to cast a glance at some recent statistics released by the Vanier Institute of the Family, an Ottawa-based research group, to see it’s abundantly clear that Canadian consumers are playing a game of Russian roulette when it comes to their family finances. According to the Vanier Institute, which has been measuring such things for more than a decade, the average Canadian family is now carrying a debt load of $100,000, and its debt-to-income ratio stands at a record 150 per cent,
shocks that may materialize (like maybe runaway energy and food prices?) and while we aren’t likely to suffer as long and hard as have our neighbours to the south, we may yet get steamrolled by our own economic hubris. So what does this all mean in respect to the potential impact on the markets and the consequent effects on investors’ portfolios? In a word: caution. While the economic recovery in the U.S. is undeniable, it has already been well reflected by the 100 per cent increase of the equity markets since the low, two years ago. There are still enough potential trouble spots, within both the North American domestic and global economies, to warrant a “go safe” approach on the part of investors. It is our view that North American equities, particularly those whose profits are driven by consumer demand, may
While U.S. consumers are starting to save, Canadians continue to increase their debt load. This trend is not sustainable. meaning that for every thousand dollars in after-tax income, Canadian families owe $1,500. Further, the Institute points out that this debt-to-income ratio has been steadily climbing for the past twenty years. In 1990, average family debt stood at $56,800, with a debt-to-income ratio of 93 per cent. The $100,000 figure represents a real increase of 78 per cent over the past two decades. The sad truth is that Canadians’ debt-to-income ratio is now higher than Americans’. In fact, Canada’s household debt hit a new record of just over $1.5 trillion in December. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve tracks, on a quarterly basis, what they call the household debt service ratio or DSR, which is akin to our debt-to-income ratio. According to the Fed, the fourth quarter of 2010 marked the seventh consecutive quarter (beginning in the first quarter of 2009) that the U.S. household DSR had fallen, returning to levels not seen since the end of the 1990s. What this clearly indicates is that Americans are actually saving more of their money and – despite the almost desperate pleadings of the government to get people to spend more money on more stuff – they are taking some tentative steps towards paying down their household debt (an example the U.S. government would be well advised to heed). While U.S. consumers are starting to save, Canadians continue to increase their debt load. This trend is not sustainable. Whether we want to accept it or not, Canadians are extremely vulnerable to any new economic
well be very close to being overbought. Even as commodity prices keep rising, there are danger signals on the horizon for many of these commodities, too. Bonds still hold some appeal, but even here the yield on higher-risk creditsensitive bonds may not adequately reflect the associated risks. At the end of the day, an investment approach that is guided by the sound principles of risk minimization and capital protection will always point investors in the right direction. It may not be sexy or hip; but then, for most people, neither is losing their shirt.
Perennial Asset Management Corp. is an independent Canadian investment counselling firm that provides discretionary investment management for private individuals. The company employs an active core investment style that provides the flexibility to take advantage of investment opportunities wherever they exist and reduce risk by minimizing the exposure to areas of the market that are deemed to be overpriced. From his start at Merrill Lynch over thirty years ago, Murray Belzberg has been helping people reach their investment goals. Over the past five years as president of Perennial Asset Management, he has led the firm through the chaotic markets, earning clients in excess of 100 per cent on their equity investments. Murray can be reached at MBelzberg@perennialasset.com
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Beating Emotions in Investing: A Conversation with Armand Kessous, Private Wealth Counsellor and Principal at Harrow Partners By Claire Bazley, CMRP With the bottom of the market now a full two years behind us, there’s no question that our understanding of and tolerance for investment risk have been affected. As consumers of financial products and services, to what extent do our own biases influence our returns? With over 23 years of experience providing wealth preservation strategies to several high and ultra-high net-worth families throughout Canada, Armand Kessous offers his perspective on emerging research and investment trends in the “new finance” era. What methods have you used to understand the performance of the markets? Please explain your research process.
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We have about ninety years of daily data that is available to evaluate. There was a seminal study made by Eugene Fama and Ken French, called “The Three Factor Model,” in which basically they tried to identify where the money, meaning the excess return of a balanced portfolio over the market, was made. The first concept in the formula is very simple: Risks are related to returns. In other words, you cannot make more money (than the market) unless you take more risk. If you take less risk, you will make less money. That’s the first factor. A second equation addresses the question “If you take more risks to increase your expected return, which of these risks can you actually be compensated for, and which of
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these risks are not worth paying for?” The Fama and French study found that two additional factors, when combined to the first, help explain about 96 per cent of the excess returns in a portfolio. The three factors are market, size and price. These factors are very simple: There’s the risk of the marketplace; whatever the market risk is, you get paid for that risk; that’s the market rate of return, which is a higher expected return than bonds or cash. There’s the risk involved with buying smaller companies, as opposed to larger companies; we call that the “small cap premium.” And there’s the risk of buying value companies, as opposed to growth companies; we call that the “value premium.” The new finance is this: If you are going to seek excess returns, then put your money in the whole market, and put emphasis on small companies and value companies. There is significant evidence that this method delivers better performance. In all major equity markets in the world, over time, the small cap market has outperformed the general market, and the value market has outperformed the general market. If you overweight the small cap and value markets in your portfolio, you increase the chances of achieving above-market returns. You’ve said that money management can be centred on two core conflicting views: one assuming that market prices are “right” and one assuming that the market prices are “wrong.” Do explain.
I think that it boils down to asking oneself about the placement one chooses to reserve for these two totally different ways of investing money. One is called “active management,” and one is called “structured management.” The active management school of thought is represented by a professional money manager looking at the price of a specific security and evaluating whether that price reflects the true value of the underlying company. From the analyst’s perspective, the price could be above or below what the intrinsic value is. Active managers will take a position that assesses whether it is better to “short” the stock – meaning selling in advance of its anticipated drop in price – or to buy, or load up on, that stock because they feel that it is a bargain. That’s the school of thought of active management, and basically what they’re saying is that current prices do not always correctly reflect the value of a company, a perspective that is true to a certain extent. Structured managers take another view: that the prices are always at equilibrium, meaning that a buyer has found a seller and the two have agreed on the price. Then, the price is right because that’s the agreed-upon price, and therefore that price includes all the expectations and assumptions of all the market participants. Structured managers
reconstitute the benchmarks against which the active managers are measured. One school of thought says, “Let me find out where the deal or opportunity is,” and the other one says, “Don’t be foolish: the price is the price, and when you go on and buy or sell your stock, whatever the price is, it’s the right price.” Therefore, why not go out and buy all of the stocks that fit into your factor’s criterion. These are two completely different schools of thought and, interestingly, they are interdependent, because you need those people who have conflicting views on the value (i.e., the seller and the buyer) to create a price equilibrium, which is the one used by the structured managers. How do these two methods differ with respect to returns?
It’s a complex debate. At any moment in time, you take a snapshot and you have all sorts of performances out there, some managers doing very well, some very poorly, and everything in between. In my view, from a market participant perspective, it boils down to two observations. Take Eugene Fama’s research, called the “Cross-section of Mutual Fund Returns.” He finds that there is no evidence of skill (vs. luck) in the performance of active managers. Generally, active managers fail to beat the market they are measured against in a consistent manner. Only 7 per cent of Canadian managers do beat the market after five years, as measured by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) in 2009. It’s a low number. But then, more importantly, it’s about what lessons investors take away. A company called Dalbar (http://www.dalbar.ca/) does a yearly study that measures returns realized by investors, conducted by looking at the inflows and outflows of the market over the year. Basically, if you measure how much money goes in and out, and when it goes in and out, you can measure how much return has been made by the participants in the market in general. Then you compare that measure to a buy-and-hold strategy. Over the last twenty years, investors have realized a rate of return of 3.17 per cent before costs. The market, during that time, has grown at a rate of 8.2 per cent. These measures include the latest crisis and everything we went through. Basically, as human beings, we have a tendency to buy high and sell low. When markets are high, people put more money into the markets. More people want to buy Apple today, because it’s such a great company, but the probability that Apple will deliver the same kind of returns over the next ten years is likely lower than it was ten to fifteen years ago. But these companies continue to be bid up by investors.
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March 11 was the two-year anniversary of the bottom of the market. Moving forward, how do you account for unexpected market occurrences?
Take another perspective: Unexpected occurrences are actually normal – that’s what makes a market. What impact it has is fairly simple. Unexpected occurrences in the market (and typically people think of bad news rather than good news) lower the prices. Because you actually buy the future profits of a company, think of the price of a security as a mathematical formula: price = earnings /expected returns. When prices drop, the expected returns increase. By buying into that stock at that time, you’re just increasing your expected returns. From our perspective, it’s not so much trying to avoid or outguess the unexpected, but to actually take every opportunity where one has access to higher expected returns and buy them in order to constantly position the portfolio to have higher expected returns. And that’s exactly what happened during the financial crisis of 2008–2009. As prices went down, every time we bought securities, we bought into a higher expected return for our money. And indeed, on the money that was invested at that time, as of March 2011, your expected return – looking retrospectively – was about 75 per cent, because the markets went up by 75 per cent over that time period. It’s a measurement, a point in time. In what ways are the markets influenced by human behaviour?
Markets are influenced by market participants. You have the institutional participant, and you have the individual investor; they both show a tendency to buy on the basis of past performance. They will allocate money on the basis of what managers have done in the past – which is a fundamental flaw in the investment world. In terms of the individual investor, we know that there are lottery ticket buyers. Mathematically, buying lottery tickets is a money-losing game; likewise, with stock trading. Frequent trading in the stock market, especially after cost, is a money-losing game. Because of people’s aspirations, it makes them frequent buyers of securities, mostly buying on impulse and therefore entering into a money-losing proposition. How do market prices reflect these behaviours?
In real time. The aggregate emotions of market participants is reflected in the prices. Prices move all day long, all the time, everywhere in the marketplace. The challenge is to educate market participants about the danger of their emotions. Human behaviour is hard to model. Data analysis has helped explain 96 per cent of where return is generated, but 24
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not 100 per cent – so there’s always this part of the mathematical equation where you put a variable called error, something you cannot price. That something could be a lot of things – speculation, random trading, or short-term changes. Have you seen opportunity for the finance industry to leverage market research insights?
There are a growing number of researchers in a field called “behavioural finance.” The focus has been on the areas where behaviour hurts investors and on trying to frame the behavioural biases in order for investors to stop hurting themselves – because this is the key: investors who buy and sell stocks and fall prey to their own emotions are hurting themselves tremendously. So behavioural finance looks at things like overconfidence, self-attribution, hindsight, and regret avoidance. How is the information age affecting us, the participants in the market?
It would seem to me that the more information is available, the more noise is created. There are a lot of headlines focused on the short term. You still have a lot of people who read or hear a headline that may say something like “Increased Gas Prices to Put Pressure on Market Recovery,” and they may think, “That’s right: the markets will go down. I’m going to sell,” and that’s what they do – even though prices are unpredictable. Then, it gets worse: Let’s assume they have made the right call. They sell, and the prices drop. They still don’t know when to get back in. Timing the market is a money-losing proposition. Over the last 26 years, if you missed the best fifteen days in the market (as measured by the S&P 500 index), instead of making an 11.23 per cent return, you would make 8.97 per cent. What modern finance is all about is saying that you have to be cognizant that there are things that are unpredictable; so plan for them as being so. What you need to do is make sure you have a balanced portfolio that will always be into the markets during the good times and bad times. Investors need to ensure the risk is balanced – connecting to their needs, not just their wants.
Armand Kessous has a postgraduate degree in finance and is a member of the Quebec Institute of Financial Planners as well as the Society of Trust and Estate Professionals. Located in the Montreal office of Harrow Partners Ltd., he can be reached at akessous@harrowpartners.com or (514) 904-5200.
www.gfknorthamenrica.com
Your Business Innovation Partner Fact-based consultants in over 100 countries with sector expertise and proven research and marketing techniques. GfK Research Dynamics, now part of GfK Custom Research North America „ (905) 277-2669 „ www.gfknorthamerica.com
If I Say ʻCatʼ – Quick, What Comes to Mind? Word Associations and What They Prove
Word associations can be enormously useful in marketing studies. As tests in the investigation of trade-mark protection, however, they are fraught with ambiguities. First let’s agree on what we mean by “word association.”
Ruth M. Corbin, CMRP, PhD, LLM
Thinking up word associations is an often played game, its popularity revived by Monty Python’s “Word Association Football.”1 Word association can also be used as a mnemonic to study for exams or to remember people’s names. But it actually started out as a method of psychoanalysis, moving into the public spotlight in the early part of the twentieth century, when famous psychologist Carl Jung published his book Studies in Word-Association: Experiments in the Diagnosis of Psychopathological Conditions. Jung used a particular library of words to identify abnormal patterns of responses and what he called their associated “intellectual and emotional deficiencies.” Value to Marketers
In market research, word association is a question format, a term of art. Word association tests offer respondents a word, name or indicator, and ask what comes to mind. “Please tell me the first thing that comes to mind when you hear the word apple.” “What first comes to mind when you hear the hotel name ‘Holiday Out’?”2 Marketers want to capitalize on mental associations to create products you can identify with or aspire to. You only have to look at the anthropomorphic brand names of cars whizzing by – names like Land Rover, Focus, Explorer, Protégé – to recall that car manufacturers care about your mental associations with the names they choose. The following example of a variant of the test shows the business value of word association insights. In 1996, Atco Financial Services was researching options for an advertising 26
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campaign. Atco proudly offered loans to the blue-collar sector, including individuals who might be turned down elsewhere. One of its advertising options showed gardening equipment and a garden glove on the ground, symbolizing the working man. Its research agency pretested the advertising campaign with a focus group. Upon seeing the picture of the glove on the ground, one participant called out, “O.J.!” Then a jokester in the group said, “Yeah, am I going to run into him in their branches? Uh oh!” The focus group room resounded with laughter. The reference was to the infamous football star O.J. Simpson, who had been accused of murdering his wife. One of the dramatic pieces of evidence at his trial had been a single muddy glove found in the garden near the site where the murders had taken place, matching a glove found at his residence. Needless to say, Atco chose another visual for its advertising campaign, relieved to have avoided an advertising catastrophe. In surveys for trade-mark disputes, word association question formats have a rocky reputation. Courts like and endorse them when they are used to investigate the distinctiveness of a brand name or slogan in association with specific products or services (“What first comes to mind, if anything, when you hear the name KODAK?”). They dislike and reject them when used as clumsy tests of confusion – confusion, that is, about whose products a brand name or slogan represents. This article dissects a fascinating issue that has arisen about trade-mark confusion and word associations. One version of a survey question eliciting word associations is
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instantly rejectable, while other versions can be valid and right on point. Word Association Reveals the Meaning Acquired by a Trade-mark
To qualify as a trade-mark, a word or term needs to be distinctive with respect to a particular source. That is an easy standard to accomplish for invented or coined words like KODAK, EXXON and XEROX. But what about ordinary English words like apple, or virgin, or delta? Remembering that a trade-mark registration offers owners certain monopoly control over their trade-marked word, one may well ask under what circumstances such a monopoly can be granted. If it can be shown that a word points uniquely to a particular company (and does not merely describe or deceptively misdescribe its products or services), then trade-mark registration is possible. So, for example, Apple Inc. was able to get a registration for the name APPLE in association with computers and peripherals. Similarly, there have been registrations across diverse product categories for ATLAS, CATALYST, CATERPILLAR, GRAFFITI, MASTERPIECE, READER, SOLO, STING and thousands of other English words. Word association tests can clearly assist in determining whether a word has become recognized as an indicator of a particular source of goods or services. If BLACKBERRY makes people think of PDAs, if SPRINT makes people think of cellphones, if WRANGLER makes people think of jeans, then these words have acquired distinctiveness, in people’s minds, in association with those products. Why else would a word be linked to a product wholly unrelated to its definitional meaning? (The percentage of people who would have to think that way for the word to qualify as “distinctive” is a matter of argument.) The value of word association surveys to demonstrate acquired distinctiveness was established in American jurisprudence more than forty years ago.3 Word Association Formats Are Not Proof of Confusion
Trade-mark confusion occurs when people mistakenly infer that two products originate from the same source, and when their misapprehension is attributable to something about the trade-marks of the two products. Word association formats can seldom produce proof of confusion on their own. If I ask you what comes to mind when I say “PC” and you reply “Mac,” your answer is not proof that you think PCs and Macs come from the same company. Asking “What comes to mind when you see the store name Business Depot?” and receiving the answer “Office Depot” does not prove that Office Depot and Business Depot are being confused as to ownership. The word cat may produce a word association with dog, even though you are unlikely
to mean that you think cats and dogs come from the same source. There is ample authority that open-ended word association surveys are inadmissible on the issue of confusion, unless, at the very least, probing questions are included,4 and even then there may be limits on their admissibility. A well-known American case involved a dispute between the hotel chain Holiday Inn and campground provider Holiday Out of America. Submitted as evidence of likely confusion was a survey that had asked respondents to give a reaction to a placard featuring the name Holiday Out. The high level of association with Holiday Inn was interpreted by the submitting party as evidence of a likelihood of confusion. The court disagreed, finding that the design of the survey did not allow one to separate the effects of the word holiday alone on the association with Holiday Inn. The survey apparently had neither a suitable control condition, nor the benefit of verbatim explanations arising from probe questions, to counter the court’s concerns.5 A few Canadian courts have rejected word association tests outright on matters of confusion, or at least expressed reservations about what they actually prove. In a dispute between Edmonton’s Fantasyland Hotel and Walt Disney Productions, a survey researcher for Walt Disney submitted results of a survey in which people had been asked what came to mind on hearing the name Fantasyland. (Fantasyland Hotel’s erotic room décor was not quite in keeping with Disney’s child-centred family themes.) The Alberta Court of Queen’s Bench declined to find confusion between the two. “The plaintiff ’s survey evidence … consisted of a word association test using the word ‘Fantasyland.’ Word association surveys do not measure confusion, and the expert conducting the survey testified that he did not test for confusion. Therefore, there was no basis for his opinion that confusion existed. In any event, the word association test did not [even] present respondents with the words ‘Fantasyland Hotel.’”6 In another Canadian trade-mark dispute, between Toyota Motor Corporation and Lexus Foods,7 the court accepted a word association survey (“What, if anything, comes to mind when you hear the word LEXUS?”) as evidence of the widespread reputation of the LEXUS car, but not as conclusive evidence of a likelihood of confusion between cars and fruit juices, both named LEXUS. The Paradox: Confusion Can Actually Arise from Word Association
The paradox in all this is that trade-mark confusion frequently occurs because our minds word-associate and fill in first impressions with past experience to draw inferences. For example, if a shopper in a retail store encounters vue April 2011
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backpacks with the brand name DELTA, the shopper may infer that these are made under some licensing arrangement with the famous brand airline. Confusion in this case arises from the shopper’s private word association, possibly reinforced by the perceived plausibility of Delta Airlines diversifying into licensing a brand of carry-on luggage. The question “What do you think of when you see the brand name DELTA on this luggage?” might not be the proper test of confusion. But the question “If you have an opinion, what company puts out this luggage?” possibly adding “Why do you say that?” or supporting the results with a scientific control condition can be an adequate test of the likelihood of confusion. Respondents may make an association in their minds between two uses of the brandname DELTA to draw an inference and reach their conclusion, but it is a private thought pattern, and not a response to a formatted word association question.8 When you see word marks on a less familiar product or associated with a new service offering (such as on storefront signage), your inclination to make an association with words and symbols that you have encountered before can be the very engine of confusion. Surrounding circumstances such as similarity of channels of trade, or similarity of product presentation, or similarity of overall sound of the names, might add fuel to your inferences.
everyday words. Surveys that rely on word association formats may, nonetheless, need to be bolstered by appropriate scientific controls or probing questions to be persuasive. The third future role is possible expansion into measures of depreciation. One of the sections of the Trade-marks Act, Section 22, deals with depreciation of a trade-mark’s goodwill by an infringer. It has received surprisingly little application by Canadian courts since its enactment more than fifty years ago. The Supreme Court of Canada has recently clarified the interpretation of when depreciation can be said to occur. One of the conditions is a “linkage” in people’s minds between an existing trade-mark and a perceived infringer. Linkage is exactly what word association formats reveal. Perhaps such formats for survey evidence may yet find new applications. Word association tests have come a long way from Carl Jung’s psychoanalysis couch.
Summary and Future Possibilities
4. Itamar Simonson. “The Effect of Survey Method on Likelihood of Confusion Estimates: Conceptual Analysis and Empirical Test.” Trademark Reporter, 1992: 83, 364.
In summary, word association quizzes or survey questions framed in word association format are not suitable for investigations of trade-mark confusion. However, questions which ask “Who do you think puts out this product?” accompanied by control conditions to militate against guessing or by follow-up probes of the type “Why do you say that?” are frequently a sound basis for testing confusion. To avoid the Humpty Dumpty dilemma of a word meaning whatever he wanted it to mean when he used it, it is useful to reserve the phrase “word association” in market research to refer to explicit word association formats. It is an entirely different stimulus from questions that merely allow respondents to contemplate plausible associations. Put another way, respondents may privately make word associations in their mind to come to their conclusions, but that mental process should not be confused with a technique discredited for use in confusion surveys. There are at least three future roles for this modest little technique called word association. One is its continued use by advertisers seeking to learn how people would react spontaneously to slogans, pictures and names. As the Atco example illustrated, the results are used at face value. Whatever consumers are willing to think aloud is exactly what advertisers want to know. The second use is for the measurement of secondary meaning or acquired distinctiveness of names, slogans and 28
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Endnotes 1. See, e.g., http://pythonline.com/blogs/bromaynardg/trial_word_association 2. To avoid leading by presuming that anything should come to mind, a survey question based on word association is better worded “What, if anything, comes to mind ….” 3. G. Miaoulis & N. D’Amato. “Consumer Confusion and Trademark Infringement.” The Journal of Marketing, 1978: 42(2), 50.
5. Holiday Inns, Inc. v. Holiday Out in America, 481 F.2d 445, 447 (5th Cir. 1973) 6. Walt Disney Productions v. Fantasyland Hotels, Inc., 1994 20 Alta. L.R. (3d) 146, [1994] 9 W.W.R. 45, 15 B.L.R. (2d) 1, 56 C.P.R. (3d) 129, 154 A.R. 161 7. Toyota v. Lexus Foods Inc. [2001] 2 F.C. 15 8. A variation on an acceptable format is to ask what other products and services the company offers, assuming respondents have an opinion. A 1980 American case (Amstar Corporation v. Domino’s Pizza, [1980] 615 F.2d 252), regarding possible confusion between Domino’s Pizza and Domino sugar, appears to be a historical exception to the trend of case law. The court observed that respondents may have been merely guessing. A control condition or probe questions, which could have addressed the issue of possible mere guessing, were absent from the survey.
Dr. Ruth M. Corbin is the current chair of the Litigation and Regulatory Resource Committee, a member of the board of the Research Agency Council, and a member of the board of directors of MRIA. Ruth is managing partner of CorbinPartners Inc., a Gold Seal member of MRIA, and also an adjunct professor at Osgoode Hall Law School, teaching courses in intellectual property and cognitive science evidence. She is co-author of two books on survey evidence in the Canadian court system: Trial by Survey and Survey Evidence and the Law Worldwide.
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Memorial Tribute to ROGER GRIFFIN
The marketing research community lost a good friend and a multi-talented professional with the death of Roger Griffin on February 16th, 2011, from complications following heart surgery. Roger’s marketing research/marketing/advertising career spanned 40+ years. He co-founded an advertising agency, developed innovative promotional strategies as National Marketing Communications manager for Eaton’s, and delved into research and strategy through Griffin and Associates. He also taught marketing research, retail strategy and promotional strategy at BCIT and Douglas College. He designed and edited “Retail Connections” for Retail BC. Roger was an insightful researcher and strategist, and his work was a key factor in the advancement of many companies. He was instrumental in giving voice to many clients’ customers, reorganizing shopping centres, and branding product lines in many industries across Canada. Roger was a key force behind the creation of the MRIA. He served on the founding national Board of Directors, and developed a nation-wide profile for the Association as its first Marketing and Communications Portfolio Chair. He chaired three major conferences for the Association, and sat on the BC Chapter Board of Directors for many years. He was a spirited volunteer whose guidance, commitment and savvy will live on. It is Roger’s personal qualities, more than his professional contributions, that will be the legacy he will be remembered for. Roger had a real passion for marketing research, and he infected his clients and students alike with his enthusiasm. He was a genuinely kind, warm and engaging man with an infectious personality. His personal integrity and work ethic yielded sterling results, and made him a wonderful person to work with. The wide respect he garnered came from his modest, down-to-earth approach and his quietly diligent competence. Roger was a true gentleman and an inspiring human being. Carla Gail Tibbo, MBA, CMRP, CMC, cgt@incisivemarketing.com
Douglas College is developing a scholarship in Roger’s name. To contribute, send a cheque made out to the Douglas College Foundation (Roger Griffin) to Sarah Lock, Foundation Coordinator, Office B3090 DLC, Douglas College, PO Box 2503, New Westminster, BC V3L 5B2. Credit card payment can be done by contacting Sarah directly (locks@douglas.bc.ca; 604-777-6176).
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PEOPLE AND COMPANIES IN THE NEWS John Ball, COO of Ifop North America is pleased to announce several promotions within the firm. Darko Rakin who heads up the Consumer and Business division has been promoted to Senior Vice President as has Ann Christelis who becomes Senior Vice President and General Manager of our Healthcare division. Also in our Healthcare division, we are pleased to recognize Dima Ostrikov, Sarah Cohen, and Marianne Fillion, all of whom have been promoted to Director. Congratulations to all! www.ifop.com eCommerce sites urged to clean up content before Google’s ‘Panda’ goes global Hot at its heels of an algorithm update to combat duplicate content last month, Google has followed up with “Panda,” another algorithm change that hits purveyors of “low quality content.” To avoid being slammed with little or no warning, leading search marketing specialist and technology firm, Greenlight, is urging businesses to take the necessary steps now to ensure their sites’ rankings and thus visibility are not affected when Panda strikes. To read more, go to www.greenlightsearch.com Verve Hires Two from Vision Critical UK-based Verve has appointed two former Vision Critical execs – Steevan Glover as Director of Commercial Development and Andrew Reid as Managing Director. Reid replaces Jeannie Arthur who is leaving to set up a new business. Verve, which specializes in customer advisory panels and online brand communities, was established in 2008 by the founders of Research Now, Hall & Partners and the iD Factor – Andrew Cooper, Mike Hall and Jon Gumbrell, respectively. www.addverve.com Copernicus Consulting is pleased to announce that Dr. Sam Ladner has won a postdoctoral fellowship to study mobile technology at Ryerson University. Dr. Ladner will employ ethnography to investigate how mobile technology affects work/life balance. The research is hosted at the Ted Rogers School of Management, under Dr. Catherine Middleton. Dr. Ladner will continue to lead ethnographic and qualitative projects at Copernicus. More information at copernicusconsulting.net/dr-ladnerconduct-mobile-research/
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• To read more news online, or to submit your news, simply fill out our online form at mria-arim.ca/PEOPLE/People.asp. • The Vue editorial team reserves the right to select and edit your submission for appearance in Vue. • MRIA is neither responsible for the accuracy of this information nor liable for any false information. • Interested in sponsoring People and Companies in the News? Contact amgabriel@mria-arim.ca
Kinesis Survey Technologies LLC (Kinesis), the industry leader for future-proof market research software solutions, today announced the addition of a new Diary Campaign feature to its premier panel management solution, Kinesis Panel™. The new functionality is included in the latest release of Kinesis Panel and enables detailed management and analysis of market research diary projects. Users are able to set panelist participation metrics including the minimum/maximum number of survey completes for a given time period, as well as track target quotas, participation by respondent, and participation over time. For more information, contact sales@kinesissurvey.com, call (512) 590-8300, or visit www.kinesissurvey.com COLLOQUY Tips for Turning “Madvocates” into Advocates Consumers have sounded a clear warning to brands in COLLOQUY’s latest research into the word-of-mouth (WOM) sharing practices of U.S. households: Bad news travels fast. Of 3,295 U.S. consumers surveyed by COLLOQUY, slightly more than one out of every four (26%) said they are far more likely to spread the word to family, friends and coworkers about a bad experience with a product or service than a good one. COLLOQUY, owned by LoyaltyOne, is a provider of loyalty marketing publishing, education and research. For more information go to www.colloquy.com/whitepapers Dufferin Research is pleased to announce the promotion of Brindusa Valachi to the position of Vice President, Operations & Research. After almost six years with the organization, Brindusa's demonstrated skills in both technical and administrative roles are now being called on to provide more direction to day-to-day research operations. This shifting of operational responsibility to Brindusa will allow Rick Frank, President & CEO of Dufferin Research more time for business development, consulting, and to develop sound strategic plans for future growth in a global research environment. rickf@dufferinresearch.com
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Trend Research is proud to present “TrendWatch Alberta” our monthly telephone omnibus of 900 Albertans. Look for “TrendWatch BC” and “TrendWatch Saskatchewan” in the near future. For more information please contact Anastasia Arabia @ 780-485-6558, x2003 or visit http://www.trendresearch.ca/trendWatch.php Matrix Research Limited, an experienced provider of data collection and analysis services, is a leader in local multi-lingual and world-wide multinational surveys, including loyalty research, as well as recruiting among Canadian ethnic residents. We are proud to announce that we've built EVA (Ethnic Voice Accord), a proprietary ethnic panel of Chinese and South/South-East Asian Canadian Residents: http://ethnicvoiceaccord.ca. The panel is continuously updated, growing in size, and has already been utilized for a number of research projects. For more information, please contact Anton Nicolaides, Director of Sales & Client Service at anicolaides@matrixresearch.ca Vision Critical Partners with The Salvation Army for Dignity Project The Salvation Army has launched the Dignity Project, which seeks to engage Canadians about the reality of poverty in the 21st century. The endeavour will feature online events, street outreach, traditional advertising and social networking. To coincide with the launch of the Dignity Project, Vision Critical’s Chief Research Officer Andrew Grenville conducted a public opinion study that looks at some of the myths and misconceptions that Canadians hold about poverty. Read more here: http://bit.ly/fOWsZs
build a deeper emotional connection with shoppers and turn path-to-purchase into path to long lasting relationship. For more info http://www.freshintelligence.com/newsletters Opinionology Launches Real Customers™ Online Panels Opinionology announced the launch of Real Customers™ – a new service to build and manage verified customer panels. The new panels are custom built to facilitate connecting companies and their customers for survey research activities. Opinionology utilizes the same unique mix of panel management techniques that have made their panels so distinctive to engage, reward and communicate with the Real Customers verified customer panels. www.opinionology.com Gautam Nath joins Monsoon Communications Gautam Nath took one step closer to his dream of becoming an intrinsic part of Canada's varied multicultural mosaic by joining Monsoon Communications as a Partner. Gautam brings over 25 years of corporate experience with global multinationals. He was Director of Marketing on the Board of ICCC (Indo Canada Chambers of Commerce) 2009-2010 and presently on the Board at MCIS (Multilingual Community Interpretation Services) 2010-2013 and on the Allocations Panel, United Way of Toronto. sachi@monsooncommunications.ca
MARK YOUR CALENDARS
Mktg. Inc. has evaluated the Survey Sampling International (SSI) panels in the US and select European countries through its Grand Mean Project™ – the world’s largest and most inclusive online sample assessment – and declared them “spot on,” coming close to the buying behavior segmentations of the Grand Mean Project. Steve Gittelman, president and CEO of Mktg. Inc., has said he “...can't believe how perfectly the SSI results line up with the Grand Mean Project...” for more info go to www.surveysampling.com
AAPOR 66th Annual Conference May 12-15, 2011 – Phoenix, AZ
Corrine Sandler, CEO of Fresh Intelligence to present Research 3.0 Fresh Intelligence has developed an EmIntelligence™ model that taps into the unconscious mind of the shopper. Empowered by these insights, a client and agency can create ideas and communication strategies to
MRA Annual Conference June 6-8, 2011 – Washington, DC
2011 MRIA National Conference May 29-31, 2011 – Kelowna, BC 2011 Excellence in Research Awards Gala Dinner May 30, 2011 – Kelowna, BC CASRO Technology Conference June 2-3, 2011 – New York City, NY
Interested in sponsoring People and Companies in the News in 2011? Contact amgabriel@mria-arim.ca
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DATA COLLECTION AT IT’S BEST State-of-the-art CATI call centre Online surveys Elite B2B interviewing team Multilingual interviewing capabilities Remote monitoring capabilities Mail and data entry services Data tabulation and analysis
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VUE MAGAZINE
TIMELESS PAPERLESS
VIRTUALLY 2011 MEDIA KIT AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT
HTTP://WWW.MRIA-ARIM.CA/ADVERTISING/PDF/VUE-ADGUIDEENG.PDF
With Vue magazine now available both in print and online versions, you have more options and greater flexibility to read those articles that matter most to your business and to your career. View a sample at http://www.mria-arim.ca/VUEonline/Mar2011/Mar2011Flip00.html There is no added cost for MRIA members to opt out of the print version and receive the online version - simply go to MRIA Portal, under Membership. http://www.mriaportal-arimportail.ca
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AWA R D S A N D R E C O G N I T I O N Marketing Research and Intelligence Association L’Association de la recherche et de l’intelligence marketing
2011 FELLOWSHIP ELECTION Fellowship is the highest honor that MRIA can bestow upon one of its members, and our association is conducting its fourth fellowship election under its own auspices in 2011. This pinnacle designation is conferred through a rigorous nomination and election process, requiring a two-thirds vote of an electoral body comprised of the MRIA board of directors and the past presidents of MRIA and its predecessor associations who remain members of the association. The honor and exclusivity of the FMRIA designation gives rise to the dues-exempt status in MRIA for life. For more information and to complete a nominations form, go to www.mria-arim.ca/AWARDS/FellowDefinition.asp The deadline for Fellowship nominations is Thursday, April 21.
2011 EXCELLENCE IN RESEARCH AWARDS GENEROUSLY SPONSORED BY
Celebrate excellence in marketing research and intelligence, communications and advertising research, public opinion research, competitive intelligence and data mining! Nominations are open in eleven categories. For more information and to nominate, go to www.mria-arim.ca/AWARDS/ExcelAwards01.asp The deadline for awards nominations is Friday, April 22.
2011
New Fellow(s) and Excellence in Research Awards winners will be announced and celebrated at the 2011 Excellence in Research Awards Gala Dinner, to be held in Kelowna, BC on Monday May 30th. For more information and to register for the national conference go to http://www.mria-arim.ca/Conference2011 A bientôt !
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QUALITATIVE RESEARCH REGISTRY (QRR) In accordance with federal privacy laws, MRIA’s Qualitative Research Registry (QRR), or Registre de la recherche qualitative (RRQ) in French, was created to provide an ongoing, user-friendly vehicle for tracking those who do not want to be contacted or should not be contacted for qualitative research studies.
QRR is a comprehensive do not call list of those who have recently participated in qualitative research studies, those who have asked not to be contacted further, and those felt by recruiters and moderators to be best served by not being contacted. These respondents are marked as “do not call” in accordance with established MRIA Standards. All field and full-service companies are encouraged to submit a list of their qualitative respondents for entry into the QRR system each month, including those who do not wish to be contacted.
THE FOLLOWING COMPANIES HAVE SUBMITTED NAMES TO QUALITATIVE RESEARCH REGISTRY FOR OCTOBER 2010: ATLANTIC OPINION SEARCH
ONTARIO BARBARA C. CAMPBELL RECRUITING CONSUMER VISION
Participating firms will receive monthly updates of respondents to be screened from qualitative recruitment samples. QRR works effectively to increase the quality and integrity of the qualitative research process, by serving as a control to ensure respondents are not contacted more frequently than is necessary.
DAWN SMITH FIELD MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC.
However, the ability of the system to function effectively is directly related to the co-operation received from firms who provide recruitment services. If you are a full service research firm or field supplier that is currently participating in the Qualitative Research Registry program – thank you very much and keep up the good work!
RESEARCH PROFESSIONALS
If you are not currently participating, please get involved! If you are interested in submitting to QRR, please visit the MRIA website at
CRC RESEARCH (QUEBEC)
mria-arim.ca/QRD/QualResearchRegistry.asp
for further explanation and guidance on how to submit qualitative research participants’ names, along with the required electronic forms.
I & S RECRUITING NEXUS RESEARCH OPINION SEARCH QUALITY RESPONSE RESEARCH HOUSE INC. SENTIEN RESEARCH TANN RESEARCH VALYRA RESEARC
QUEBEC MAYER, BOURBONNAIS & AUBE OPINION SEARCH RESEARCH HOUSE INC.
WEST & NORTH OPINION SEARCH
QUALITATIVE RESEARCH REGISTRY SUBMISSIONS SHOULD BE SENT TO: QRRQ@mria-arim.ca Submission templates and payment forms can be found at mria-arim.ca/QRD/QualResearchRegistryForms.asp
RESEARCH HOUSE INC. SMARTPOINT RESEARCH INC. SYNOVATE TREND RESEARCH
Rules of Conduct and Good Practice for Members of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (2007), Section C Rules Specific to the Conduct of Qualitative Research: 20. Recruiters should provide accurate data to the Qualitative Research Registry, where such exists, on a consistent basis and check all respondents against the Registry.
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21. Moderators buying recruiting services should give primary consideration to recruiting agencies which submit to the Qualitative Research Registry, where such a service exists, on a regular and ongoing basis.
P RO F E SS I O NAL D E VE LO P M E N T
How Do You Feel about the New Maintenance of Certification Requirement?
Institute for Professional Development Institut de développement professionnel
Rick Hobbs, CMRP
“So long, and thanks for all the fish.” The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy is really a must read as far as I am concerned. It has a lot of memorable quotes, many applicable to life as a researcher, and specifically life for researchers who volunteer for their industry association. Which brings me back to the fish. I am moving on from the Education Portfolio, hopefully to bigger fish, as part of the national board (unfortunately, at the time of writing I do not know if I have been successful). So I thought it would be appropriate to take a little time to let you know that the Education Portfolio is in good hands. Dr. Jeannette Bellerose, CMRP, dean of Education, has continued the excellent work of Dr. Cam Davis, FMRIA – and of Tracy Bowman, CMRP, before him – in modernizing the core courses. Fania Borok has been given the job of managing the day-to-
day operations and has been extremely helpful in formalizing and implementing policy. Julia Savitch continues to keep us all in line with innovative solutions to a variety of issues. And I must not forget to mention the leadership of executive director Brendan Wycks and the support of Sylvie Corbeil-Peloquin and Anne Marie Gabriel in their roles regarding education. So what’s next? Really, more of the same. More courses online, a broader range of training, more webinars, and more learning. I know that the Institute of Professional Development will not rest on its laurels, as well deserved as they are. Next is a push to increase awareness about the CMRP. It seems obvious to many of the association’s members that having a CMRP is an indication of achievement; that is why more individuals than ever are writing the exam. It is obvious to some major buyers that the CMRP is a valuable asset for their researchers and for their suppliers, and of course many research companies encourage their employees to write the exam. But awareness could still be higher, and part of the challenge is to increase the number of CMRPs in the industry. A researcher’s reputation depends on the ability to ask the right questions of the right people and propose the right actions. Our industry has a tremendously large number of terrifically smart individuals; many have master’s degrees, and there are a lot of actual doctorates. Ours is one of the few industries where having a PhD
doesn’t make you overqualified. And yet there are a lot of subtle differences between academic research and the research that companies and political parties conduct. Often, having great academic training does not allow for pragmatic research, and practitioners know this: it takes experience in the workplace. This is where the CMRP comes in. It sets a standard that goes beyond academic training and includes practical knowledge of the industry. Our courses are taught by practitioners and help other practitioners increase their skills and knowledge base. A CMRP sets a standard for applied knowledge. A CMRP is a sign of quality which states that the researcher knows and understands the required theory and how it is applied. Does it mean CMRPs are smarter than nonCMRPs? Does having a degree mean you are smarter than somebody who doesn’t? Of course not; only fools would claim that their poll was the only right one. CMRPs are smarter than that. Rick Hobbs, CMRP, is chair of MRIA’s Professional Development & Certification Portfolio and vice-president of Leger Marketing’s Ottawa office. In his spare time, he constructs structural equation models and facilitates virtual focus groups. He uses his CMRP to defeat the most heinous research problems in public opinion polling. If you have any questions regarding the CMRE, please contact him at rhobbs@Legermarketing.com or (613) 728-0296. vue April 2011
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P RO F E SS I O NAL D E VE LO P M E N T
MRIA INSTITUTE FOR PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT INSTITUT DE DÉVELOPPEMENT PROFESSIONNEL DE L’ARIM
Congratulations to the New CMRPs of 2011! Félicitations aux nouveaux PARM de 2011! MRIA extends hearty congratulations to the following members who have earned the coveted Certified Marketing Research Professional (CMRP) designation by writing and passing this year’s winter sitting of the Comprehensive Marketing Research Exam (CMRE) / L’ARIM félicite chaleureusement les membres suivants qui ont reçu la désignation convoitée de professionnel agréé en recherche marketing (PARM) après avoir réussi l’examen écrit d’accréditation en recherche marketing (EARM) lors de la séance d’hiver cette année : David Bartolf Mark Beaudet Monique Brulotte* Michael Del Bel Sherif ElShikh Jeanette Hoft* Imran Khalifa Darren Perche*
Senior Research Analyst President Senior Manager, Marketing Research Associate Manager Consumer Insights Director Vice President Business and Customer Insights Manager Manager, Market Research
SaskPower Sterling Hunter Consulting Yellow Pages Group Ontario Lottery & Gaming Corporation Insight 2 Delight Inc. CRA West EMD Serono Inc. Pollard Banknote Limited
Regina Montreal Verdun Sault Ste. Marie Mississauga Kelowna Mississauaga Winnipeg
* Please note: names with an asterisk indicate that the candidate still needs to complete the 102- Ethical Issues and Privacy in Marketing Research course. * Note : l’astérisque près d’un nom signifie qu’il faut que le candidat ou la candidate complète le cours 102-Questions d'éthique et protection des renseignements personnels s’appliquant à la recherche marketing.
The next CMRE will be held on June 30, 2011. CMRE Prep Workshops will be offered on May 25-26, 2011 in Ottawa; May 28-29, 2011 in Kelowna; and on June 9-10, 2011 in Toronto MRIA’s CMRP or PARM (Professionnel agréé en recherche marketing) certifies the designation holder’s high level of knowledge and capability in marketing research theory and practice, and adherence to the rigorous ethical standards set out in MRIA’s Code of Conduct and Good Practice. Le prochain examen aura lieu le 30 juin 2011. Les ateliers de préparation à l’examen seront offerts les 25-26 mai 2011 à Ottawa, les 28-29 mai 2011 à Kelowna, et les 9-10 juin 2011 à Toronto (en anglais) La désignation de PARM (Professionnel agréé en recherche marketing) de l’ARIM certifie que son détenteur possède un haut niveau de connaissances et de compétences en matière de théorie et de pratique de la recherche marketing et que ce détenteur respecte les normes d’éthique rigoureuses établies dans le Code de déontologie et les règles de pratique de l’ARIM. For more information on attaining the CMRP designation and for a complete list of all MRIA CMRPs, visit www.mria-arim.ca/AWARDS/CMRPDefinition.asp Pour obtenir plus de renseignements sur la désignation de PARM et pour obtenir une liste complète de tous les PARM de l’ARIM, visitez le site www.mria-arim.ca/AWARDSFRE/CMRPDefinition.asp
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P RO F E SS I O NAL D E VE LO P M E N T
GET YOUR CMRP Designation! The CMRP (Certified Marketing Research Professional) designation signifies a high level of knowledge and capability in marketing research theory and practice, and adherence to rigorous ethical standards set out in MRIA’s Code of Conduct and Good Practice.
By achieving a CMRP designation you: • Confirm your broad competency and mastery of theoretical and practical knowledge required to maximize value to your organization and clients; • Better position yourself for career advancement and greater earning power; • Demonstrate your commitment to continued professional development and to upholding the highest level of professional ethical standards.
The CMRP can be obtained by writing the Comprehensive Marketing Research Exam (CMRE). The next CMRE will be held on June 30, 2011. Application deadline is June 2, 2011. Apply now!
There are two ways to qualify to write the CMRE: • You have completed MRIA’s Institute for Professional Development program of twelve Core courses (or equivalent courses from another academic institution) and have at least two years of professional marketing research experience; or • You select to “Challenge” the CMRE, if you have at least eight years of marketing research experience, are confident you meet the knowledge requirements set out by the Competency Requirements document and have successfully completed the Core course “102-Ethical Issues and Privacy in Marketing Research”
CMRE Prep Workshop: Prepare for the Exam! A Prep Workshop is available for those who want to brush up on material and on exam techniques, to prepare for the CMRE. This two-day CMRE Prep Workshop will be offered on May 25-26 in Ottawa, on May 28-29 in Kelowna, and on June 9-10 in Toronto. The enrollment to this unique Workshop is limited to 15 registrants per workshop, so don’t delay and reserve your seat TODAY. All CMRE applicants will also be sent a very detailed, comprehensive CMRE Study Guide to assist exam writers in preparing for the CMRE. The Guide is sent automatically once registration has been completed and is FREE OF CHARGE. The Study Guide is also available FREE OF CHARGE to MRIA members in good standing who are considering writing the CMRE exam in the future on a request only basis. Send your request to: education@mria-arim.ca
MRIA Institute for
Professional Development
For more information on the CMRE, please visit: www.mria-arim.ca/EDUCATION/CMRE.asp or contact us at education@mria-arim.ca
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CO L U M N IST S CI CORNER David Lithwick & Enrico Codogno
Dear CI Corner: I think that competitive intelligence, human intelligence, and analysis are a crock. Every day, I get new clippings from the Internet telling me what I need to know about my competitors. Flustered Dear Flustered: Your opinion of competitive intelligence is probably shared by many senior executives. But limiting your sources of information may distort your view of the market. Two popular beliefs regarding U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War are that the U.S. aim was to defend South Vietnam from communism and that it was to prevent the domino effect. The CIA made it quite clear, around 1964, that a united communist Vietnam would not lead to a domino effect; it would result in Vietnam’s reverting to its traditional hostility to China. Only the generals and some influential right-wing politicians pushed the idea of the domino effect. Their blind belief held sway and led to a long, horrible war. As for helping South Vietnam, only 10 per cent importance was given to helping South Vietnam, while 70 per cent was given to protecting U.S. prestige. The Vietnam War was not about helping South Vietnam or fighting communism, but about U.S. prestige and self-importance. Competitive intelligence is knowledge based on cold, hard facts that can be applied to developing objectives regarding all areas of your company’s operation. Belief is static and does not adapt easily to changes in the competitive environment.
QUAL COL Blogs: Research beyond the Existing Content Laura Craig
The need to make major financial decisions usually goes hand in hand with big life-changes, so they are often fraught with emotion. 38
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Two such examples are buying a first home and contemplating retirement: Superficially these might seem to be merely questions of finances. But these decisions are accompanied by myriad other factors. How much I can spend on my home is related to things like how big a family I will have and whether my mother-in-law will need to move in one day. “What type of mortgage should I get?” may really mean “What happens if I lose my job or this relationship doesn’t work out and we have to sell the house?” Similarly, when considering retirement, “When can I retire?” does not just mean “Provide me with a number,” but “Help me understand the possibilities.” Am I really going to want to spend my whole retirement on a golf course or travelling the world? What if I get bored and want to do some consulting? Financial services companies know that truly understanding the emotions behind these rational financial questions is key to having satisfied customers. But how can we get even deeper than what we know already? In the January-February “Qual Col,” my colleague Lindsay Porter discussed the idea of guiding respondents to be reflective within a blog-like atmosphere as a means to getting beyond the rational. We have found this approach to be a great way to access deep-rooted thoughts on particular experiences. When consumers are encouraged to look within themselves, they are given an opportunity to uncover their underlying motivations. This strategy can ultimately provide companies with a deeper understanding of what consumer needs are, and what the unmet needs may be.
thanking him for the invitation but confessing to not remembering how we knew each other. “Sorry,” he wrote back, “I mixed you up with someone named Corbett.” After further correspondence, in which we discovered many overlapping professional interests, we decided it would be great to stay in touch on LinkedIn anyway. In professional encounters, it’s called serendipity. When it happens with products, it’s called “initial interest confusion.” And in Canada, it’s now officially a reason you can be sued. Initial interest confusion is a marketplace phenomenon whereby consumers are initially misled into approaching a product thinking it is something else; sometimes they decide to buy that product after all, even if the initial confusion subsides before purchase. This, in turn, may erode loyalty to the brand the consumer originally had in mind. One American court case (McNeil PPC, Inc. v. Guardian Drug Co., 984 F. Supp. 1066 [E.D. Mich. 1997]) succinctly described the offense as follows: “It is clear [that] it was Defendant’s intent in appropriating Plaintiff ’s trade dress [the product packaging], not only in its packaging but also in its advertising, to confuse or ‘hook’ customers at the initial point of contact with the product, … drawing the customers to its product through the similarity in trade dress. That the customer might realize that Defendant’s product is not [the brand he came for] before he gets to the check-out counter to pay for it is irrelevant; … the damage is done.” How do you measure the fleeting psychological state of initial interest THE COURT OF confusion? Survey approaches are PUBLIC OPINION evolving, though frequently coming Temporary Confusion Can Weaken under earnest criticism by opposing Brand Loyalty parties (see, e.g., E. Goldman’s “Deregulating Relevancy in Internet Ruth M. Corbin, CMRP Trademark Law,” Emory Law Journal, Last week, I received an invitation to join 2005: 54, p. 588). Marketers know that the LinkedIn network of a professional I such temporary confusion poses a risk to couldn’t remember meeting. I wrote brand loyalty. They should be reassured
CO LU M N I ST S
that courts are now open to recognizing it many market researchers are what, how as possible evidence of unfair much, and when incentives should be competition. used. What type of and how much incentive. STANDARDS Generally, incentives fall into two groups: Use of Incentives in Market Research monetary and non-monetary. The type of incentive offered to a respondent is Donald Williams dependent on the type of data collection mode. In panel-based surveys, nonThere are an increasing number of monetary incentives are, increasingly, market research companies that now offer becoming the norm. For one-off surveys some form of incentives to respondents, (e.g., telephone and mail surveys), with the objective of encouraging participation. A few years ago, incentives monetary incentives are used most often. The value of the incentive being were limited to hard-to-reach segments of offered is obviously limited by the budget the population. However, with declining and the need to avoid encouraging response rates for all types of market “professional” respondents. Market research (telephone, face-to-face, online, researchers should be careful that focus groups), incentives are now the incentives offered do not induce data norm rather than an exception. biases. Incentives being offered range from When to apply an incentive. The main points-based gift cards or vouchers to objective of an incentive is to encourage cash, and may vary according to the target group, even within a single research respondent participation, but there are study. The questions being asked by cases where incentives are not needed.
For example, in most government-funded research, respondents view participation as an obligation, the duty of a citizen. The decision to apply an incentive is usually dependent on the expected response-rate level and the length of the survey. Surveys with historically low response rates will require some type of incentive, but not in the case of those with expected high response rate. For focus group studies, it is the norm; respondents expect to be paid for their time and commitment. For more details on incentives read about the Market Research Society’s U.K. incentives standards. See “MRS Regulations for Administering Incentives and Free Prize Draws” (2007) at http://www.mrs.org.uk/standards/downlo ads/Incentives_Free_Prize_Draws.pdf and “Code of Conduct” (2010) at http://www.mrs.org.uk/standards/downloa ds/Code%20of%20Conduct%202010.pdf
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