TM
MALAYSIAN PALM OIL COUNCIL
KKDN PP 14669/05/2010 (024659)
Egypt’s Oils and Fats Market
Reflecting on Growth
Apart from its relatively small cottonseed production, Egypt depends almost entirely on imports to meet its demand for edible oils and fats, of which palm oil accounts for 45 per cent, with Malaysia being one of the largest suppliers. About two-thirds of Egypt’s oils and fats go to domestic consumers, food and retail outlets, and the rest is in the form of vegetable ghee. Palm fatty acids and other palm fractions are imported to make soap.
MARKET DYNAMICS With a population of 80 million and GDP growing at more than 5 per cent per annum, Egypt is a huge market for oils and fats. At the current consumption figure of 1.6 million MT a year, Egypt’s oils and fats industry has the potential to boom, since the per capita consumption of oils and fats is fairly high at 20.3kg compared with other countries in the region such Algeria and Morocco (Chart 1).
20 15 10 5 0
Egypt
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Source: oil world annual
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
4.1
4.5
6.8
7.1
7.1
5
Source : Central Bank of Egypt Forecast in 2009
Economic reforms and privatisation exercises that have been taking place since 2004 have increased Egypt's competitiveness and are slowly bringing about a better economic environment. As Egypt's industrial sector is comparatively well-developed, it stands to benefit from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and other regional economic groupings.
Continued on page 7
25
Egypt – GDP Growth Rate (%)
global recession, such as lower revenues from the Suez Canal, tourism, lower repatriation from broad and lower FDI, which have affected its economic growth. Despite this, the country is expected to register a positive growth rate of 5 per cent this year.
The production of cottonseed oil dropped from 51,000 MT in 2004 to 38,000 MT in 2008. However, this was compensated by an increase in the production of soybean
30
ECONOMIC PROFILE The economy is on a sustainable platform based on a GDP growth in excess of 6 per cent since 2006. However, like other countries in the region, Egypt also has experienced negative impacts of the
GDP
fats. Its 2008 import of 1.6 million MT of oils and fats was a 32 per cent increase over the 2004 import figure. The gap between consumption and self-sufficiency continues to rise as Egypt has not been able to increase the local production of edible oils despite various measures taken by the government. Chart 2 shows the trend between local production of edible oils and imports over the last five years.
Chart 1: Per Capita Consumption in selected Middle East and North African Countries in 2008
35
Kg / Year
EGYPT promises strong growth in the oils and fats sector on the back of rising per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a burgeoning population, despite the global economic crisis and inflationary pressures affecting the market this year. Its consumption of edible oils in 2008 was 1.6 million metric tonnes (MT) – almost double its mid-1990 level.
VOL: 9 2009
The increase in population and high growth in recent years suggest that Egypt will import more edible oils and fats in the coming years. It has been shown that the consumption of oils and fats is in tandem with economic performance, although the current inflationary pressure and economic downturn will affect the market this year. Consumption patterns are changing, with a growing preference for quality and branded products. The shift is mainly due to increased health awareness among the people and better income levels. Egypt, along with other Middle East and African countries, is heavily dependent on imports to satisfy its demand for oils and
MARKETING & MARKET DEVELOPMENT DIVISION DIRECTOR Wira Adam
wira@mpoc.org.my
MANAGER Muhammad Kharibi Zainal Ariffin kharibi@mpoc.org.my MARKET ANALYSTS Asia Pacific
Desmond Ng Kok Hooi desmond@mpoc.org.my Lim Teck Chai lim@mpoc.org.my
South Asia
Fatimah Zaharah Md Nan fatimah@mpoc.org.my
Middle-East
Mohamad Suhaili Hambali msuhaili@mpoc.org.my
Africa
Nor Iskahar Nordin iskahar@mpoc.org.my
Europe
Azriyah Azian azriyah@mpoc.org.my
Americas
Ahmad Fadzli Abdul Aziz fadzli@mpoc.org.my
For more information, please contact Tel : 603 - 7806 4097 Fax: 603 - 7806 2272
MPOC FORTUNE
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Kuala Lumpur
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In a longer term correction by Benny Lee Chief Market Strategist NextView Group
the “triangle” has formed and this can be easily identified on the weekly chart. The support level of the triangle pattern is currently at RM2,050 while the resistance level of this pattern is at RM2,400. Therefore, price is currently near the support level. As long as the price stays within this support and resistance level, it is still in a correction. A breakout above the resistance level would cause the price to rally, but anything below the support level would cause price to decline further. Momentum indicators are mixed with a slightly stronger bearish strength. Indicators on the daily chart are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicators are below the mid-level. The MACD indicator is declining and is now below zero, which means that the trend is down. The rising ADX indicator also shows a strong bearish trend. However, in the longer term, momentum indicators on the weekly chart are mixed, where the indicators are almost neutral.
FFCPO daily chart as at Sept 11, 2009. Charted by Benny Lee using NextView Advisor Professional THE market turned bearish last month after a short-term bullish rally from RM2,000 per metric tonne (MT) in July to a high of RM2,515 in just one month. It turned bearish when the price of FCPO tested and broke below the RM2,300 support level in early September. I have mentioned that if this support level is broken, the price may hover around RM2,100 from the intermediate uptrend line from October 2008. The price of FCPO closed at RM2,145 on Sept 11, RM319 or 13 per cent lower from a month ago. The thought that the FCPO price will test the RM2,800 margin again this year fades away. The decline in palm oil prices was mainly due to decline in exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories were up at the end of August. MPOB reported palm oil stocks increased 6.2 per cent on-month to 1.42 million MT. Malaysian palm oil exports declined due cutbacks in palm oil imports by the European Union and China. MPOB said that exports were down 9.5 per cent on-month to 1.32 million MT in August.
Cargo surveyors SGS Services and Intertek Agri Services estimated palm oil exports for Sept 1 to 10 to decline 17 per cent and 15 per cent on-month respectively. Favourable weather in Malaysia and India's Meteorological Department announcing that a revival in monsoon rains may ease drought in India and boost crop development were fundamentals that provided resistance against the price of crude palm oil moving higher. The price of FCPO has gone below the moving averages and the 30-, 60- and 90-day moving averages have just started to decline. The averages are between RM2,200 and RM2,300. The FCPO price is currently right above the intermediate uptrend line. Trading volume has improved slightly, with a daily average of 10,400 contracts as compared with 9,200 contracts in the previous month. This indicates a selling pressure because of the price decline in the past one month. Because the price did not rally upwards, a long-term correction chart pattern called
Price is currently near the support level and a rebound is expected at around RM2,000 to RM2,050 to at least the average price in the correction period, which is RM2,300. In the longer term, the price trend direction depends on whether the price breaks above the support or resistance level. In the short term, the FCPO price is expected to stay between this support and resistance levels. If the FCPO price is unable to stay above RM2,000 and drops below it, the price is expected to fall and test the next support level at RM1,700. If the price breaks above this RM2,400 resistance level, then we may expect price to rally to test the RM2,800 resistance level again. Benny Lee is a private trader, trainer and sought-after speaker in the financial market. He is the Chief Market Strategist for NextView Group. NextView Group is a group of companies in the Asian region that provides a leading real-time investment tool for both professional and retail investors. NextView is also a leading Investor Education training provider. For more information, log on to www.nextview.com. The above analysis and commentary is based on the writer’s personal opinion on the price of crude palm oil using technical analysis and should not be construed as any form of investment advice. The writer will not be responsible for any decision made from using the above article. MPOC FORTUNE • 3
For more information, please contact : ICB Global Management Sdn Bhd No. 3, Jalan Sri Hartamas 7, Taman Sri Hartamas, 50480 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Tel: +603 6201 6051 Fax: +603 6201 6053
M A RKE T Ins In s igh g ts
Oils & Fats Imports, 2004 - 2008 Commodity
Pakistan a Resolute Market
Crude Palm Oil RBD Palm Oil RBD Palm Olein Palm Fats Total Palm Imports Soybean Oil
Despite Tough Local Conditions
Crude Coconut Oil Tallow Total Oils & Fats
WITH an estimated 163 million consumers, Pakistan is among the top 10 largest markets of the world. Major changes have occurred in Pakistan’s economy in the last decade and despite the deteriorating security situation and political unrest, the country has continued to show growth in most sectors. One of the sectors that have performed remarkably is the food industry, which registered an average growth rate of 25 per cent in the last 7 years. Edible oil, snack foods, fried foods, confectionery, chocolates, juices and cereals are popular food items whose consumption is growing steadily. The leading snack food producer, Pepsi Foods, has set up a manufacturing plant in Pakistan and local companies have also enhanced their production considerably in the last few years. The growth in the per capita income of Pakistan is also an indicator of the potential that the food industry offers.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
117,248
141,387
427,412
483,466
544,477
248,568
100,095
15,694
2,299
345,638
1,053,011
1,361,047
1,301,819
1,146,349
641,260
49,393
103,039
65,691
66,527
39,652
1,468,220
1,705,568
1,810,616
1,698,641
1,571,027
52,350
19,999
20,121
96,164
20,969
1,106
-
-
93,332
86,556
65,269
50,543
39,098
1,615,008
1,812,123
1,896,006
1,845,348
1,631,094
Market Performance, Jan - Aug 2009 Commodity
August 2008
August 2009
Changes Vol. (Tonnes)
Changes %
Crude Palm Oil
389,708
315,844
(73,864)
(18.95)
Palm Oil
80,714
505,315
424,601
528
Palm Olein
536,607
325,581
(211,026)
(39.33)
Palm Fats *
28,834
62,604
33,770
117.12
Soybean oil
15,469
48,596
33,127
214.15
Tallow
39,098
23,221
(15,877)
(40.61)
1,090,430
1,281,160
190,730
17.49
Total
Source: Data from landing ports The import of oils and fats by Pakistan has also shown a similar increase. The market has seen a steady increase of 9.8 per cent and the dominance of palm oil, vis-à-vis other oils, has increased significantly, standing at 96 per cent currently. The average Pakistani
1,000
1085
1042
1046
926
800
836
600
669 526
507
509
733
586
US $
200 Per Capita Income 1999 - 2009 0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan
Chart 1 clearly indicates that the real per capita income of the average consumer in Pakistan has increased steadily in the last 10 years and currently stands at US$1,046. This steady increase has led to a rise in consumer spending and according to estimates the past year, the average Pakistani consumer spends 42 per cent of his or her income on food and food-related items.
-
Source: Data from landing ports
Chart 1: Per capita income trend
1,200
400
Imports MT
consumes 8kg of palm oil a year, which is the highest consumption of palm oil in this region. Despite major price fluctuations, the total import of oils and fats by Pakistan has shown a steady trend and is being maintained at a level of 1.6 to 1.8 million metric tonnes in the last four years. The interesting and encouraging thing to note is that the import of palm oil has shown a consistent increase.
A major shift in the buying preference of the palm oil type is also observed. From a negligible 80,714 MT in 2007, RBD palm oil imports touched 505,315 MT in August 2009, which is an increase of over 500 per cent. This shift in preference is due to the reduction in the price differential of palm olein and RBD palm oil, making RBD palm oil economically feasible despite a US$20 duty advantage to olein. This increase in the import of RBD palm oil has created a direct competition with palm oil produced by local, physical refineries and has made it difficult for the physical refining industry to operate at full volume. If the current situation prevails, then both crude palm oil and palm olein will lose their share to RBD palm oil. Despite the extreme volatility and heavy losses experienced in the last quarter of 2008, Pakistan’s edible oil industry showed resilience and did aggressive trade during the first half of 2009. This was mainly due to rising prices, which motivated buyers to minimise losses incurred in the earlier months. Should this market trend continue, then the import of edible oils by Pakistan will touch 1.7 million MT, out of which palm oil will have a share of over 95 per cent. Malaysia has already exported over one million MT of palm oil to Pakistan and by the end of this year, the export level is expected to touch 1.4 million MT. MPOC FORTUNE • 5
M A RKE T Ins In s igh g ts
poultry sector, high cost of production that makes the meals produced uncompetitive for export and a relatively stable domestic usage of oils and fats.
Japan Opens
Up to Oils & Fats of Greater Health Value the oilseeds required, which is close to 8 million metric tonnes a year. The main oilseeds crushed are soybean and rapeseed. While soybean is mostly imported from the United States and Brazil, Japan obtains its rapeseed from Canada. No tariff is imposed on imported oilseeds. However, if a product is made from oilseed that contains more than 5 per cent genetically-modified organism (GMO) content, it is mandatory for the product label to state the percentage composition of GMO and non-GMO content.
JAPAN, with a population of 127 million, is one of the most advanced countries in the world. It has a large manufacturing base, with automobiles and electronic goods being the leading sectors, and a small agricultural base. Very little land in Japan can be cultivated with crops as over 90 per cent of the country is rugged, mountainous terrain. Discounting the rivers and streams, only about 0.9 per cent of the country’s total land bank of 37.8 million hectares is arable, with soybean being the main oilseed grown. The crop took up 94.2 per cent or 156,000 hectares of the total land cultivated for oilseeds in 2008.
For the past 5 years, the volume of oilseeds crushed annually has been fairly constant, varying within a narrow range of between 5.1 million MT and 5.8 million MT. Factors contributing to the stability of crushing volume include a stagnated
Almost all soybean produced is sold to local processors for soymilk, soybean paste, tofu and soy sauce production. As such, crushers have to import almost all
Japan oilseed crushing from 2004 - 2008
6,000
(’000 MT)
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
2004
2005 Soybeans
2006 Rapeseed
2007
2008
Other
Total
Source: Oilworld Annual Food & non-food uses Breakdown by sector (% ) 14.4
Food Uses
Others
37
Cooking oil
16.4
Lard Industrial Margarine/ Shortening
25 7.2
Non-Food Uses
Household Margarine
27.2
Others
3.0
Fatty alchohol
60.4
Soap
3.3
Printing ink
6.1
Paint
0
10
20
30
Source: Trade sources 6 • MPOC FORTUNE
40
50
60
The oilseeds imported into Japan are highly dependent on rail cars and trucks for transfer to the crushing plants. Shipment of oilseeds is usually done on Panamax vessels of between 70,000 and 75,000 deadweight tonnes. Vessels from the main soybean export destinations of US, Argentina and Brazil take up to 32 days to arrive, via the Pacific Ocean. There are 10 ports in the country where the oilseeds are landed as they are close to the crushing plants – Chiba, Hakata, Kashima, Kobe, Mizushima, Nagoya, Shimizu, Yokkaichi and Yokohama. The total oilseeds crushed in 2008 generated about 1.9 million MT of oils and fats. Per capita consumption by Japan in 2008 was 21.9kg, making a total consumption of 2.8 million MT for its 127.3 million people. However, the oils and fats produced meet only 67 per cent of Japan’s requirements, with the use of oils and fats by its food and non-food sectors being in the ratio of 90:10. Household margarine is a wholesome and cheaper substitute for butter. It is used mostly by households in Japan as bread spread and in cake-making. Producers offering margarine for sale fortify their labels with health information focusing on cholesterol lowering properties. Margarine is packed as bricks or in tubs of between 130g and 450g. Major players in this segment are Meiji, Unilever and Yukijirushi. Popular brands in the market are Rama and Snow. In the household margarine sector, the most popular oil used is soybean oil (29.1 per cent), followed by palm oil (14.3 per cent), fish oil (13.4 per cent), corn oil (5.2 per cent), pig fat (3.1 per cent) and cotton oil (2.9 per cent). A major marketing issue producers have to address is the consumer demand for lower saturated fat content. There are also Japanese Muslim groups wanting halal margarine put on sale to carry the halal label. In the industrial margarine/shortening sector, the oils and fats used are made from a combination of fish oil (25.4 per cent), palm oil (23.2 per cent), rapeseed oil (9.8 per cent), coconut oil (8.6 per cent), soybean oil (5.4 per cent) and palm kernel oil (3.2 per cent). Industrial margarine is mainly used for making pastry, cakes and bread. A large portion of the shortening is used by food processors for frying doughnuts, crisps and chips. In addition, shortening is used Continued on page 9
MA R K ET I ns n si g h t s
Egypt’s Oils and Fats Market Reflecting on Growth
Continued from page 1
Chart 2: Local Production and Imports Oil & Fats (2002 – 2008) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
17%
17%
17%
18%
20%
22%
15%
83%
83%
83%
82%
80%
78%
85%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2002
Production
2007
2008
Imports
Source: Ports Authorities, forwarding Agencies
(000’ MT)
Chart 3: Oils & Fats Imports by Egypt 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
1,661 1,219
1,330
2006
1,170
2007
2008
The overall economic growth of the country, coupled with consistent growth in the oils and fats industry, once again made Egypt one of the big importers of palm oil. The export of Malaysian Palm Oil (MPO) to Egypt in 2008 increased, registering 347,558 MT or an increase of 88 per cent over the previous year (Table 1). The Government of Egypt announced another five-year plan to overcome this shortfall in the supply of edible oils and fats. However, bearing in mind the current issues and problems, Egypt will remain a net importer, with almost 60 per cent of the demand for edible oils and fats being met by imports from Malaysia and Indonesia. The chart below forecasts the import of oils and fats by Egypt for the next five years, based on the growth pattern of the past five years (Chart 5). PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION AND POPULATION GROWTH Growth in consumption over the past five years has corresponded with population growth and per capita consumption remaining steady. Edible oil consumption is related to per capita GDP. Per capita consumption is expected to increase in line with GDP. With a conservative
860
2005
in vegetable ghee, were sold to retail and industrial manufacturers.
2009
Continued on page 11
Source: Ports Authorities, forwarding Agencies oil, from 72,000 MT in 2004 to 220,000 MT in 2008. The production of the other seed oils remained stagnant. Imports of oils and fats are expected to continue to rise because the scope for local production is limited by the lack of land, especially with urban development encroaching, and with crushing capacity remaining underutilised as well. Palm oil is the largest oil imported, and it is also re-exported as cooking oil and vegetable ghee to Iraq and neighbouring countries. Soybean and sunflower oils are imported for the subsidised sector. Soybean oil imports have increased, partly replacing sunflower oil (Charts 3 and 4). The 2008 import of oils and fats increased by 42 per cent over the 2007 figure, with palm oil making up for a higher percentage. A key reason for this was the higher prices of sunflower and soybean oil. The competitive prices of RBD palm oil, RBD palm olein and stearin resulted in Egypt increasing imports by 772,442 MT (11 per cent) against 694,046 MT in 2007. Nevertheless, the import of soft oils such sunflower and soybean oils also increased by a significant 88 per cent or 413,000 MT because of a doubling
requirement under the government’s subsidised cooking oils scheme.
Chart 4: Share of Oils & Fats Imports 2008
The share of local production of edible oils and fats remained dormant at 18 per cent in 2008 despite the higher consumption. This dismal performance is attributed to various factors, including low yield, the absence of any price support incentive, decrease in land under cultivation and preference for planting cereal crops such as rice and wheat. Of the total oil and fats demand of 1.6 million MT in Egypt in 2008, some 360,000 MT of vegetable oils were in liquid form and sold in the retail and bulk market, with another 600,000 MT of liquid oil sold at subsidised prices by the government. The remaining 640,000 MT,
Palm Oil 47%
Soybean Oil 36%
Sunflower Oil 15%
Corn Oil 2%
Source: Ports Authorities, forwarding Agencies
Malaysia: Export of Palm Oil Products to Egypt (MT) Products Palm oil
2009*
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
430,252
347,558
184,588
211,686
608,816
335,225
Palm Kernel Oil
25,430
28,303
30,599
25,307
31,128
26,596
Oleochemical
20,754
28,857
22,660
9,147
7,612
3,713
5,906
2,125
1,002
4,064
2,471
3,186
Finished Products Note: Jan-Aug*
Source: MPOB MPOC FORTUNE • 7
M ARK ET I ns nsights
Japan Opens Up to Oils & Fats of Greater Health Value
Continued from page 6
as icing, filler fats and as ingredient to make snack foods such as chocolate and the ice-cream. Notable instant noodle producers such as Nissin Food Products, Toyo Suisan, Sanyo Foods, Myojo Foods and Ace Cook are major uses of shortening, mostly as ingredients and for frying noodles. Lard with a little bit of pork flavour is commonly used as cooking fat. Its use in contemporary cuisine has diminished
imposed for those with a large waist size. Consumers were negatively affected by this ruling and started switching to healthier oils and reducing their usage of cooking oils. Other factors that contributed to the drop in cooking oil usage were the increasing number of working women, as well as a gradually shrinking population, registering a drop of 0.2 per cent for the year ending July 2009.
Major Distributor of Soap in Japan
27% 12%
23% 38%
Market Share of the major players in the instant noodles market Enterprise
Established brands of instant noodle sold by the company
Market share in Japan’s instant noodle market (%)
Nissin Food Products
Chicken Ramen
40.4
Toyo Suisan
Akai Kitsune, Midori no Tanuli
19.2
Sanyo Foods
Sappro Ichiban
11.5
Myojo Foods
Charumera
9.9
Ace Cook
Super Cup
8.3
Convenience stores s ores st Others Supermarkets / hypermarkets Pharmacies / drugstores Source : Euromonitor
Source: Euromonitor Japan’s Cooking Oil Market (‘000 MT) Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Total
450.2
437.9
430.8
424.2
419.5
416.4
Olive oil
20.2
20.8
21.2
21.6
22.1
22.6
Major Cooking Oil Brands in Japan (2007) Brand
Manufacturer
Market share (%)
Nisshin
Nisshin Oillio Group Ltd.
23.1
Ajinomoto
J-Oil Mills Inc.
14.3
Econa
Kao Group
10.2
Honen
J-Oil Mills Inc
6.8
Source: Euromonitor because of health concerns over the saturated fat content. This development has led to a significant drop in the usage of lard in Japan, registering only 8,000 MT in 2008, though some contemporary cooks and bakers favour it over other fats for selected uses. The culinary qualities of lard vary somewhat, depending on the part of the pig from which the fat is taken and how the lard is processed. Lard is frequently blended with palm olein and palm oil for frying because the blend has strong stability against heat and oxidation. According to Euromonitor, the use of cooking oil on average fell by 1.6 per cent a year between 2004 and 2008. This drop was due in part to the implementation of mandatory health check-up, where the waist sizes of workers are measured and penalties
Olive oil, one of the sub-sectors in Japan cooking oil market, has benefited from the rising health consciousness. Between 2004 and 2008, olive oil usage grew by 2.3 per cent a year. Greater acceptance of olive oil is mainly related to heavy media coverage of its use and health benefits. The palm oil sector also benefited. In late 2008, Nisshin Oillio launched a palm-based cooking oil, Nisshin Veggie Fruits. According to Euromonitor, the product has proven to be successful, selling because of the health benefits of palm oil. Oil used for frying tempura, a traditional Japanese favourite, makes up the largest share of the Japanese cooking oil market. The major users of oils and fats in the inedible oil sector are soap producers. Soap bars and liquid soap are sold, but liquid soap is more popular. The
proportion of liquid soap to soap bars sold in the market is in the ratio of 3:1. Liquid soap is preferred as it is generally felt it is milder and cleans better. Japanese consumers are inclined to purchase soaps from established manufacturers such as the five top producers, Kao Corporation, Lion Corp, Tsumura & Co, Nippon Lever BV and Cow Brand Soap Kyoshinsha Co Ltd (table below gives the market share). These companies advertise on TV and radio, using well-known spokespeople, while pharmacies are the most widely used distribution channel, followed by supermarkets/hypermarkets. Market share of the top 5 manufacturers in Japan Manufacturer
Market share (%)
Kao Corp
20.6
Lion Corp
9.3
Tsumura & Co.
9.3
Nippon Lever BV
8.1
Cow Brand Soap Kyoshinsha Co Ltd.
6.8
Source: Euromonitor The general conclusion is that any prospect for high growth in oils and fats usage in Japan is remote. A key reason is rising health consciousness causing the Japanese to reduce oils and fats consumption. Other factors that Continued on page 12
MPOC FORTUNE • 9
M A RK ET I ns nsights Continued from page 7
900
Egypt’s Oils and Fats Market Reflecting on Growth
Chart 5: Egypt – Import Trend of Three Major Edible Oils, 2004 - 2008
800 (000’ MT)
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Palm Oil
757,413
800,870
817,072
694,046
772,442
Soybean Oil
270,640
116,101
186,799
124,081
590,955
Sunflower Oil
206,903
277,062
299,809
324,827
251,775
Palm Oil
Soybean Oil
Sunflower Oil
Source: Ports Authorities, forwarding Agencies
CHANGE IN CONSUMPTION PATTERN The overall trend in consumption in Egypt shows a shift toward vegetable oils and soft oils at the expense of animal-based ghee and butter. This change in consumption pattern is mainly due to greater health awareness among consumers. Palm oil-based ghee has proven to have much better techno-economic advantages compared with animal-based ghee, leading to high usage and sales. Palm oil products are mainly used in the manufacture of vegetable ghee (palm oil and palm stearin), frying oil (palm olein), cooking oil (palm olein blended with soft oils) and soap (mainly palm stearin and small amounts of PFAD). Palm kernel oil and its fractions are used in specialty fats and soap. Other liquid oils are consumed mainly as cooking and frying oils. Hydrogenated soybean oil is also used in the manufacture of quality vegetable ghee. The government imports soybean and sunflower oils for the subsidised market, and this constitutes the largest portion of soft oils imported by Egypt. The private sector mainly imports palm oil and some quantities of soft oils. Efforts have been and are being carried out to persuade the
public sector to import palm olein for the subsidised sector. Some specialty fats and shortenings are imported from Malaysia as the products are not available or produced locally. With oils and fats consumption gradually shifting to liquid oils, palm olein is imported in lieu of palm oil for the food and frying sectors. Palm olein is a perfect replacement for vanaspati for frying and as multipurpose cooking oils. The shift to soft oils was earlier initiated by the industry to create a new market with less competition. However, the soft oil market too has become very competitive. As a result, manufacturers started to introduce blended oils to reduce the cost of production. Palm olein contributes between 20 and 60 per cent of the blending composition. The industry players are mainly refiners, processors and seed crushers. In the past, the industry was monopolised by the public sector (Food Industries Holding Company or FIHC) but since 1985, the market has seen the emergence of private oils/fats and soap companies. The
Crushing, which used to be mainly a public sector activity, has attracted the private sector. Recent years have witnessed the establishment of 2 crushing facilities, namely, by Cargill Egypt and Al Borg Al Arab, with capacities of 3,000 MT and 1000 MT respectively of seeds daily. However, the crushing capacities were underutilised due to a decline in the import of meals. The oils and fats duty structure is very conducive for refined oils, for they have the same duty as that on crude, semi-refined and refined oils if imported in bulk. The zero import duties for all products have made the edible oil industry more competitive against those in the neighbouring countries and COMESA countries. Egypt is a very established palm oil market and will continue to be the largest market in Africa. Given its large population and robust economic growth, Egypt holds a huge potential for palm oil imports. The Malaysian palm oil industry should grab the opportunities by making a more concerted effort to expand in this market. CONCLUSION With its large population and continued strong economic growth, Egypt is likely to register strong gains in total and per capita edible oil consumption in the coming decades. While imports will likely remain strong in the foreseeable future, the extent to which increased consumption is met by the oil types Continued on page 12
Chart 6: Forecasts of Oils & Fats Imports by Egypt
2,500 2,000 000’ MT
estimate of the Egyptian economy growing by 6 per cent and population growth at 2 per cent, the overall market demand for edible oils and fats is expected to growth by 5 per cent per annum, from 1.6 million MT in 2008 to over 2 million MT in 2013 (Chart 6).
growth of the private oils/fats sector has been very rapid and has now become stagnated. Among the main players in the private sector are United Oil, Savola-Sime (Now Afia International), Integrated Oil Industries (IOI), Arma Food Industries, IFFCO, AFAFCO, MIGOP, El-Fares El-Arabi, Unilever, ARECO, Loders Croklaan and Borg-El Arab. The total refining capacity is estimated at 1.5 million MT, of which around 650,000 MT are in the public sector and the rest in the private sector.
1,500 1,000 500 0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
MPOC FORTUNE • 11
M ARK ET I ns nsights
Egypt’s Oils and Fats Market Reflecting on Growth
imported will be strongly influenced by Egypt’s trade policies.
Consumption (000’ Tonnes)
Reduced dependence on edible oil imports could be brought about by increased domestic oilseeds production, but this is likely to take a backseat without any significant policy shift.
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
Consumption Population
It appears that Malaysian palm oil exporters have benefited from increased sales to Egypt in 2008. With price being the primary concern of Egyptian consumers and importers, palm oil can be expected to maintain its dominant share of the market.
Chart 7: Consumption of Edible Oil and Population Growth in Egypt
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1279.8
1337.3
1387
1402
1464
1589
70.3
72
73
79
80
82
Consumption
MA R K ET I ns nsights Continued from page 9
84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64
Population (Million)
Continued from page 11
Population
Japan Opens Up to Oils & Fats of Greater Health Value
contribute to this low growth prospect in oils and fats consumption are negative population growth and limited land area for expanding the country’s industrial sites. The country’s oils and fats consumption registered negative growth of 0.2 per cent a year from 2004 to 2008, the best indication of the low prospect for consumption growth.
Increasing sales in the Japanese market will require commercial innovations developed from a detailed understanding of consumer requirements. Besides attractive packaging, a successful marketing plan will have to focus on improvement to health, especially products with functional ingredients that could reduce body fat.
Japan’s Oils and Fats Shortfall (‘000 MT) Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Consumption
2,832.9
2,844.7
2,832.8
2,829
2,786.3
Production
1,973.3
1,896.1
1,938
1,898.6
1,864.7
948.6
894.8
930.4
921.6
Shortfall
859.6
Source: Oilworld statistics Malaysian Palm Oil Exports to Japan (MT) Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
RBD PL
162,475
168,470
202,561
181,547
200,743
RBD PO
214,268
207,461
227,176
234,600
218,900
RBD PS
29,675
24,173
24,970
21,553
29,045
Others
73,832
72,434
62,349
89,643
98,281
Grand Total
480,251
472,539
517,056
527,344
546,968
Source: MPOB statistics
MPOC Offices Worldwide Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) 2nd Floor Wisma Sawit Lot 6, SS 6, Jalan Perbandaran 47301 Kelana Jaya, Selangor Tel: 603-7806 4097 Fax: 603-7806 2272 www.mpoc.org.my American Palm Oil Council Suite # 690, 21515 Hawthorne Blvd. Torrance CA 90503, USA Tel: +1 (310) 944 3910 Fax: +1 (310) 944 3544 www.americanpalmoil.com E-mail: kassim@americanpalmoil.com Contact: Mohd Salleh Kassim MPOC Africa Regional Office 5 Nollsworth Crescent, Nollsworth Park La Lucia Ridge Office Estate, La Lucia 4051, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Tel: +27 (31) 5666 171 Fax: +27 (31) 5666 170 E-mail: kumar@mpoc.org.za Postal Address: P.O.Box 1591 M.E.C.C. 4301, South Africa Contact: Uthaya Kumar MPOC Bangladesh 62-63 Motijheel Commercial Area, 7th Floor, Amin Court Building, Dhaka, Bangladesh Tel: +88 (02) 9571 216 Fax: +88 (02) 9551 836 E-mail: fakhrul@mpoc.org.bd Contact: Fakhrul Alam MPOC Shanghai, China Shanghai Westgate Mall Co. Ltd. Room 1610B, 1038 Nanjing Rd. (w) Shanghai 200041, P. R. China Tel: +86 (21) 6218 2085 / 6218 2086 Fax: +86 (21) 6218 1125 E-mail: teah@mpoc.org.cn Contact: Teah Yau Kun MPOC Pakistan 11 – 3rd Floor, Leeds Centre Main Boulevard Gulberg, 111 Lahore, Pakistan Tel: +92 (42) 5716 600 / 5716 601 Fax: +92 (42) 5716 602 E-mail: faisal@mpoc.org.pk Contact: Faisal Iqbal MPOC India S-4, New Mahavir Building, Cumballa Hill Road Kemps Corner, Mumbai 400 036 Tel: +91 (22) 6655 0755 / 6655 0756 Fax: +91 (22) 6655 0757 E-mail: bhavna@mpoc.org.in Contact: Bhavna Shah MPOC Europe Regional Office 31 Avenue Emile Vendervelde 1200 Brussels Belgium Tel: +32 (2) 7748 860 Fax: +32 (2) 7794 371 E-mail: zainuddin@skynet.be Contact: Zainuddin Hassan MPOC Cairo 3 Gamal E1-Din Afify Street, Nasir City Zone No.6, 11371 Cairo, Egypt Tel: +20 (2) 2273 8108 Fax +20 (2) 2273 8106 E-mail: kazmi@mpocegypt.com Contact: Kamal Azmi MPOC Istanbul Guzel Konutlar Sitesi Dilek Apartment Daire 3 Balmumcu, Besiktas - Istanbul, Turkey Tel: +90 (212) 2668234 Fax +90 (212) 2668236 E-mail: haznita@mpoc.org.my Contact: Norhaznita Husin