NEW ROUTES ANALYSIS 2 0 2 0 2 0 Introduction
The Analysis is designed as strategic model which is based mainly on the demand forecasting. The demand forecasting consists of the generated forecast of number of passengers for new destinations. The primary focus of the Analysis is on destinations with significant inbound (religious and cultural) tourism potential, as well as large number of Diaspora from Bosnia and Herzegovina and neighboring Croatia.
Mostar Airport Technical Information
IATA identification code: OMO ICAO identification Code: LQMO Airport Reference Code: 4D Rescue and Fire-fighting category: VII Approved Traffic Type: IFR/VFR
RUNWAY CHARACTERISTICS Runway Designator Runway Dimensions Runway Strength (PCN) Runway Equipment
15-33 2.400 x 49 meters 54/R/B/W/U/ASPH CAT I / PAPI on runway threshold 33
TAXIWAY SYSTEM Number of taxiways
6 (“A” to “F”) – one taxiway parallel to Runway and five connecting taxiways
Taxiway Width Taxiway Strength (PCN)
From 12,12 to 18 meters 45 - 66/R/B/W/U
APRON APRON 1 Length 155 meters Width 75 meters Strength (PCN) 50/R/B/W/U (pos 1 and 2) 70/R/B/W/U (pos 3) Surface Asphalt Number of parking 3 (for aircraft positions reference type A320
Length Width Strength (PCN)
APRON 2 216 meters 71 meters 44/R/B/W/U
Surface Number of parking positions
Asphalt 4/5 (for aircraft with main gear width up to 6 meters)
AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
1 runway with 6 taxiways 2 aprons Passenger Terminal Rescue and Fire-Fighting Station ATC Tower ARO and METEO Office
GROUND HANDLING EQUIPMENT Passenger handling on Apron 4 towable stairs
Aircraft Handling 2 towing vehicles with various tow bars 1 push back tractor 2 toilet vehicles 3 Ground Power Unit 400 Hz 28V/220V 140 kVA 2 towable Air Starter 1 water supply vehicle 20 chocks
Baggage and Cargo Handling 4 towing trucks 3 self-propelled conveyer belt 12 luggage dollies 1 forklift (3 ton) De- icing truck
OTHER VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENT
1 maintenance vehicle (grass mowing) 1 self-maneuvering cleaner for runway 2 Heavy fire-fighting Vehicle 2 Ambulance vehicles (First Aid) 1 Ambulift 1 Dispatcher vehicle 2 Follow-me vehicle 1 Runway Surface Friction Tester
Catchment area
LOCATION OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, CITY OF MOSTAR AND MOSTAR AIRPORT
MOSTAR AIRPORT CATCHMENT AREA
Future Routes Choice – “Wish-list” grounds
Future routes choice is based mostly on tourism potential of City of Mostar and Herzegovina region, and also on number of emigrants from Bosnia and Herzegovina and their descendants in European countries, as well as their socio-economic status (about 80% of emigrants in all mentioned countries are of working-age and highly employed) which has a positive effect on the demand for more frequent air travel between the countries of immigration and the homeland, and air travel in general.
TOURISM POTENTIAL The entire region of Herzegovina, and especially the City of Mostar as probably one of the few cities in Herzegovina, is a destination that meets all the criteria of true tourist destination with its mixed excursion tourism offer based on religious-cultural offer within the wider AdriaticMediterranean region. The City of Mostar as a destination, belongs to a group of cities that follows tourism trends, and the attractiveness of the destination is enhanced by characteristic natural, multi-cultural, multi-religious, historical and demographical factors. The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not far from the global average when it comes to tourism indicators, and what is even more significant is that most of the indicators record a positive growth trend year by year (Agency of the Statistics).
Herzegovina region, as a territorial area where the International Airport Mostar is situated, has a great tourism potential. Two of the probably most important destinations, and destinations with the largest and most developed tourism are certainly Mostar and Medjugorje - one is destination with world recognized and protected cultural monument (the Old Bridge in Mostar, protected by UNESCO), and the other with a world wonder, and currently one of the most significant and visited destinations of religious tourism (most famous Roman Catholic pilgrimage destination, only 25 km away from Mostar, visited by more than 1milion tourists every year). Other notable destinations in Herzegovina are Blagaj, Pocitelj, Stolac, Trebinje, Ljubuski and waterfall Kravice, Capljina with Nature Park Hutovo Blato, Blidinje Nature Park, Konjic with a Nature Park Prenj, Jablanica, and Neum as the only coastal town at the sea in Bosnia and Herzegovina etc.
DIASPORA The last official data on Diaspora is from 2014, but due to the constant rise of emigration from Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is safe to assume that those numbers are higher by at least 20% in 2019. It is also important to note that not only would these destinations serve Bosnia and Herzegovina diaspora, but would also serve travelers from neighboring Croatia.
Top 10 European countries by number of emigrants from Bosnia and Herzegovina Country 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
Croatia Serbia Germany Slovenia Austria Sweden Switzerland Italy Netherlands Denmark Turkey
Number of emigrants from Bosnia and Herzegovina 381.764+ 300.000+ 228.000+ 150.000+ 135.406+ 80.000+ 60.000+ 40.000+ 38.880+ 28.000+ 20.000+
Source: Ministry of Human Rights and Refugees, Department for Diaspora, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2014.
ROUTES “WISH-LIST” Route Ground 1.
Ireland - Dublin
Emigration from catchment area, (religious) tourism
2.
Austria - Vienna
Strong emigration from catchment area, tourism
3.
Poland – Krakow/Gdansk/Wroclaw/Warsaw/Modlin number of Catholic population
4.
Germany – Dusseldorf/Cologne/Bonn/Frankfurt Strong emigration from catchment area, trade, tourism
5. 6.
London - Stansted Tourism Milan – Bergamo/Malpensa Strong emigration from catchment area, tourism
Religious tourism / large
1. Ireland – Dublin is a route of choice because of a strong emigration from Bosnia and Herzegovina and neighboring Croatia, and a base ground for religious/cultural tourism. 2. Austria - Vienna represents a market which is interesting not only because of a large number of diaspora in Austria but also for inbound and outbound tourism. Austria is the 2nd ranked European country by Bosnia and Herzegovina immigrants (without taking into account countries which once formed Yugoslavia) - 135.406+ and largest number (35.000+) of the emigration population is concentrated in Vienna. 3. Poland – Krakow / Gdansk / Wroclaw / Warsaw-Modlin - as a mostly Catholic country, Poland represents a market which has a strong potential for Herzegovina religious tourism. 4. Germany – Dusseldorf / Cologne-Bonn / Frankfurt - is the European country with the largest number of emigrants from Bosnia and Herzegovina, besides the countries which once formed Yugoslavia. It is another destination of interest because it would attract a large number of passengers due to frequent travel of Diaspora as well as for inbound and outbound tourism. The vast majority of emigrants from Bosnia and Herzegovina are of working-age with strong ties to homeland. It is also a destination of interest because of the long travel by road. 5. England - London Stansted - rising demand for point-to-point travel between Bosnia and Herzegovina and England. 6. Italy – Malpensa/Bergamo
The largest number of emigration from Bosnia and Herzegovina in Italy is populated in Veneto (Venice) and Lombardy (Milan) region, respectively. It is important to note that emigration from Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as from neighboring Croatia (which are also in large number in Italy) often feel neglected when it comes to air connectivity with their region of origin.
Load Factor Estimate
To calculate the Load Factor - LF, the B737-800 aircraft in the 189-seat configuration was taken into consideration. For each of the six destinations previously listed, a frequency of two flights per week was taken into account. The 189x2x52 formula - 189 seats x 2 flights a week x 52 weeks a year gives a number of passengers as follows: 189x2 = 378 378x52 = 19656
With LF 100%, one destination generates 19656 passengers per year and six destinations (19656x6) generate 117936 inbound passengers per year. If an average LF of 90% is taken, the sum is 106143 inbound passengers and 106143 outbound passengers per year – 212286 total. In conclusion, it is important to point out that in the first year of serving 10 destinations, the Airport reaches a figure of 360000 passengers per year.
Conclusion
The introduction of new weekly flights connecting Mostar Airport to the six European countries/airports emphasized in the Analysis, would generate revenue that is not negligible, as well as would also have positive impact on the sustainable socio-economic development of the region. It is important to emphasize that the six mentioned destinations for the purpose of this Analysis, have been considered as the most concrete predictor of possible future traffic, which not only has significant demographic and economic/tourism background and
justification, but also has a solid base in the steady increase in demand for point-to-point air service.
SWOT ANALYSIS – Mostar Airport
STRENGHTS Adequate airport infrastructure Handling of aircraft up to ICAO “C” category Simplicity of the terminal Non-slot regulated Airport – accuracy in operations Professional Airport staff Good road network that effectively connects the Airport with the City
OPPORTUNITIES Strong emigration from catchment area Rising tourism demand Tourism offer and accommodation capacities Mostar as economic center of Herzegovina – business investment potential Vicinity of the Adriatic Sea Rising point-to-point air travel demand
WEAKNESSES Passenger terminal capacities Mostly seasonal routes
THREATS Competition – other airports; other types of transport Economic crisis Political crisis