Box 3: Definitions of impact pathways

Box 3: Definitions of impact pathways

• Impact pathways describe one of several chains of events leading from an intervention towards an expected change. Mechanisms describe why these chains of events unfold. • For instance, an impact pathway would be that MOPAN produces an assessment and a member decides to follow up on a section of it, which reinforces a previous concern they had identified.

The member uses it to open a new dialogue with an MO, which decides to improve its practice on that topic. The MO implements change, and the changes are beneficial, making the MO more efficient, etc. • For this impact pathway to work, different mechanisms can be triggered, including the members’ trust in the assessment’s value; the MO’s willingness to create or maintain a partnership and its capacity to turn identified areas of improvements into relevant follow-up actions, etc.

The claims must be sufficiently specific so that their probability and significance can be assessed. Probability is the likelihood of their occurrence in concrete situations. Significance refers to the importance of the contribution in context, especially in comparison with other factors. A CA aims at increasing the degree of confidence in each claim. Plausibility, probability and significance are three degrees of confidence.100

The CCs made in this evaluation and further tested are presented below using the three categories of judgement identified in the inception note. Accountability use is considered a sine qua non; Dialogue and learning use by members is the most desirable and will be crucial in defining MOPAN’s worth in context. Use by MOs is the category about which least was known at the beginning of the evaluation. One or several impact pathways exist for each CC. Table 16 summarises the CCs that were investigated. (For a comprehensive description, including the examined impact pathways for each contribution claims, see the ToC background document.)

100  Delahais & Lacouette-Fougère, 2019. Op. Cit.