SOLAR AND STORAGE
CLOUD COMPUTING:
RENEWABLE FORECASTING BY PREDICTING CLOUD BEHAVIOUR by Michelle Goldsmith, Contributing Editor, Energy Magazine
As the amount of solar and wind generation in electricity networks increases, so does the need for accurate forecasting of the energy provided to the grid. Inaccurate estimates can have severe consequences for renewable energy companies, consumers and power supply. However, advanced weather modelling, which can predict the near-future behaviour of clouds, provides a solution. Energy spoke to Solcast CTO and co-founder, Dr Nick Engerer, about how high-tech cloud watching leads to renewable energy innovation.
W
hen intermittent renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind farms, are integrated into electricity networks, energy operators require accurate forecasts of the energy they will provide to ensure the smooth operation of the grid. Otherwise, weather events like a sudden storm blocking out the sun’s rays may cause an unexpected drop in electricity supply, requiring the deficit to be made up by other power sources. Previously, the models used for these estimates had limited accuracy, sometimes causing large discrepancies between expected and actual supply.
16
March 2021 ISSUE 13
“Large-scale solar and wind farms are subject to penalties from the Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) market for forecasting error,” said Dr Engerer. “Historically, they could only use the internal Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) models for estimates, respectively ASEFS and AWEFS, which is Australian Solar or Wind Energy Forecasting System. It was identified that site operators were better placed to understand local conditions and forecast output at the site.” In light of this issue, the renewable energy providers and the AEMO began a process of consultation to develop a solution that would be beneficial to the industry.
www.energymagazine.com.au
