Beyond the Green Economy Pathways Towards a Sustainable Future Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, Dept. Community Ecology, Halle, Germany
Presentation at the MO*Lecture “A Green Economy within the Limits of Our Planet� Beursschouwburg,, Brusssels, Beursschouwburg Brusssels, October10th 2012
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Where do we come from?
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Western consumption patterns conquer the world
Ex-novation is not in sight.
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Inhabitants with a per capita income above 200 US $/day consume most resources
Inhabitants with a per capita income below 1 US $ a day (total: 3.5 billion) suffer from energy and resource poverty. It will not change as long as purchasing power decides access
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Where do we go to? to? For instance: the Climate Challenge
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Harbour cities will be at risk
Concepcion, Chile Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Rice paddies and gardens are flooded from typhoons‌
Luzon 2009 Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
‌ or from high river water
Mekong Delta, Vietnam 2011 Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Low freshwater supply for households,, industry and cattle households
Agra, India Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
For instance: Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Ecosystem services: services: Forest biodiversity
safeguards freshwater supply Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Doi Inthanon, Thailand
Ecosystem services: Coastal protection by mangove forests (Red river delta, Vietnam)
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Cultural ecosystem
services: Symbols, values and identity
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
What could we do? The Green Economy Policy
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Is this the solution?
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Promises: Resource efficiency means less demand, less supply conflicts, similar services, less waste and pollution, and often more jobs Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Reducing the climate intensity of products products.. Circular economy through recycling recycling? ?
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Reducing production impacts: increasing material productivity 1980-2005 Industrial countries
Developing countries 300%
300%
MP=$ GDP / t DMC MP=$ GDP / t DMC
MP=$ GDP / t DMC 250%
250%
3175
200%
141
200%
109
1486 150%
150%
1258
EU 15
USA
Japan
Source: M. Fischer-Kowalski, social Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07 ecology, Vienna
Brazil
China
India
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
50% 1984
50%
271
1982
100%
1980
100%
Innovative environmental technologies combining emission reduction and recycling are needed
but not really new and insufficient. E.g.: Metal dust recovery system, enforced by regional kings „to avoid damage to neighbouring fields and grazing grounds�. Source: Agricola, G. (1556). De re metallica
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
However • We are on an emission trajectory towards 4 to 6°C global warming, and no political will to change that is detectable on a global scale. • Technical improvements may be able to half resource consumption per unit of GDP. • With a growth rate of 3%, this gain - even if fully realised - is overcompensated by 2040 (and with lower growth rates, current public debt reductions plans run into additional problems). Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Resource efficiency is a necessary, but not a sufficient policy strategy What we need is absolute decoupling of economic development and resource consumption, not a relative one with increasing emissions and waste generation. Rebound effect: The money saved through efficiency (win-win solutions) is spent, consuming resources and compensating (part of) the efficiency gains. Jevons‘ Paradox: Efficiency decreases the relative cost of a resource, generating incentives to use more of it, and it stimulates growth and thus resource use. ∑ Conclusion: Efficiency without skimming off (part of) the gains will lead to perverse outcomes. Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
A Green Economy is less than Sustainable Development
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
A Green Economy is not per se reaching the MDGs (a frequent illusion), but it offers opportunities to overcome the failures of past market radicalism (too much was dismantled trusting self-regulation) A regulation example: feed-in tariffs - strengthen local participation; - allow for community & coop - ownership; - has mobilised billions of private capital for restoring and protecting the public goods Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
What should we do? Sustainability Policy
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It It contains within it two key concepts two key concepts: ‌
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
(definition cont.) 1. The concept of “needs”, in particular the essential needs of the world’s poor, to which overriding priority should be given, and 2. The idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organisation on the environment’s ability to meet present and future needs.” (WCED 1987, p.43) p.43) Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
According to this definition, at Rio+20 Sustainability was not on the agenda Rio `92: Sustainable Development Joburg `02: Sustainable Growth Rio `12: Sustained Growth Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
A really long way to go • from low tech low resource societies • via low tech high consumption and high tech high resources • to high tech low resource societies
Local resources for local use support income & jobs but not world market & high tech production. Re-domesticate he money, keep it local not national
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Recognise the urgency !
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
“Before we come to a hasty decision, in particular the growth impact of such policies has to be assessed.�
Sustainable development affects all systems levels
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
It requires a new development model (as the European/US model has failed) failed)
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Sustainability requires convergent development
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
15% of the world population… … have achieved affluence, causing all the environmental problems mentioned.
60% of the world population… … are now in the transition from an agricultural to an industrial sciety. Catching up is no solution solution,, but an illusion illusion..
Our consumption patterns cannot be generalised Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
A really Green Economy requires limitations ... ‌ to certain activities, in order to allow replenishing of natural resources or naturalcapital, justice and social equality. The alternative is collapse (e.g. fisheries), and with it a complete loss of jobs.
To be really inclusive inclusive,, it needs to include redistribution of wealth, not only of income, reduce polarisation Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
A Great Transition… … involves the emergence not only of a new economy, but also of a new society. We should shape it consciously, with justice a key orientation: with limits to growth, (re-)distribution becomes central.
5 P’s on/off the agenda Peace – what happened to the peace dividend? Power – where has empowerment gone (Ag.21)? Planet – Resource efficiency is not enough People – social cohesion is crumbling Prospertity – for all, all profit for the few? Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07
Thank you for your attention For the presentation and other papers see
http://seri.academia.edu/JoachimHSpangenberg
Dr. Joachim H. Spangenberg, Biodiversity and SPAC, Belgrade 9.10. 07