Prince George's Pulse Quarterly Report-October 2015

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M-NCPPC Prince George’s County Planning Department

prince george’s CONTENTS Employment and Wages................. 2

Pulse

Changes in Employment

Total Employment Fourth Quarter Employment Total Wages Average Wage Per Worker Business Establishments Employment

• Transportation and Warehousing, Retail Trade, and Healthcare and Social Assistance saw the largest increases in employment between the fourth quarters of 2013 and 2014. More than 62 percent of the total increase in employment in the County occurred in these three sectors.

Real Estate....................................... 4 Housing Market Median Home Sales Price Housing Market Transactions Foreclosure Events Increase in Median Sale Prices Days on the Market Multifamily Rents Multifamily Units Under Construction Commercial Market Commercial Market Composition Vacancies Net Absorption (Space Leased) Rental Rates

OCTOBER 2015 • Vol. 1, Issue 3

• Two other sectors also recorded significant gains in employment during the period—Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation and Accommodation and Food Services. Together, the two sectors added 1,069 jobs, representing 19 percent of the total increase in the County.

• The Finance and Insurance sectors recorded the highest loss of employment in the County between the fourth Leading Employ quarter of 2013 and the fourth quarter of 2014. The 689 4th Quarter 2 job losses accounted for 50 percent of the County’s total. 1,269 Gain Leading Employment 1,253 and Loss Sectors

• Information and Wholesale recorded significant 4thalso Quarter 2013 to 4th Quarter 1,034 2014 losses in employment during the period—294 and 189 jobs respectively—representing 21 percent and 14 percent 1,269 Leading Employment Gain and Loss Sectors 1,253 543 of the total losses in the County. 4th Quarter 2013 to 4th 1,034 Quarter 2014

County Revenues............................ 7 1,269 1,253 Sales and Use Taxes 1,034 Changes in Revenues

543

543

526

Leading Employment Gain and Loss Sectors 4th Quarter 2013 to 4th Quarter 2014 1,269

-294

1,253 1,034

526

-294 Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade -689 543 526 Healthcare and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Transportation and Warehousing Finance and Insurance Retail Trade Information Healthcare and Social Assistance -44 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Wholesale Trade -113 -189 -294

-189

Accom Transportation and Warehousing Finan Retail Trade -113 -689 -44 -189 Inform Healthcare and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Whole Accommodation and Food Services Professiona Finance and Insurance Agriculture Information Wholesale Trade Professional and Technical Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

-689 Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Healthcare and Social Assistance

Accommodation and Food Services Finance and Insurance Information

Professional and Technical Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

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Employment and Wages 4th Quarter Average Employment

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Quarterly average employment increased by nearly 5,300 between fourth quarters of 2013 and 2014. Nearly 85 percent of the employment gains were in private sector. There were modest increases in average wages as well.

5,300 Jobs

200,000

120,000 100,000

89,616

40,000

88,781

84,503

80,000

During the fourth quarters of 2013 and 2014, nearly 61 percent of workers were employed in private sector service industries while the remaining were employed in public sector and private sector goods production. Also during the period, the public sector added 835 jobs. In addition, there were 4,439 job gains in the private sector led by 3,909 serviceand 530 goods-producing jobs.

31,892

32,022

31,362

4th Quarter 2014

3rd Quarter 2014

4th Quarter 2013

Government Sector

Private Sector Goods

20,000 0 Private Sector Service

3rd Quarter Total Wages $2,197.6 $2,007.5 $2,063.1

Private Sector—Service

$545.3 $508.7 $501.0

Private Sector—Goods

$1,478.0 $1,558.3 $1,365.8

Government Sector $0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

(in millions)

AVERAGE WAGE PER WORKER Overall, the average weekly wage per worker in the County increased from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2014. The largest increase of $86 occurred for workers in the private sector goods industries and the government sector, representing 7.0 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively. There was a modest $37 (4.3 percent) increase in the average weekly wage of private sector service workers during the period.

183,296

140,000

60,000

Between the fourth quarters of 2013 and 2014, total wages increased overall in the three employment areas. The largest increase in total wages ($134.5 million) occurred in the private service sector, representing 6.5 percent, followed by $112.2 million in public sector, representing 8.2 percent. Total wages in private sector goods industries increased by $44.3 million or 8.8 percent.

186,701

160,000

FOURTH QUARTER EMPLOYMENT

TOTAL WAGES

187,205

180,000

4th Quarter 2014

3rd Quarter 2014

4th Quarter 2013

Average Weekly Wage per Worker $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000

$1,418

$1,269 $1,315

$1,183 $1,229

$1,222 $903

$800

$827

$866

3rd Quarter 2014

4th Quarter 2013

$600 $400 $200 $0 4th Quarter 2014

1,162 2

Government Sector

Private Sector Goods

Private Sector Service


BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS

EMPLOYMENT

Between the fourth quarters of 2013 and 2014, the highest gains in business establishments (51) occurred in the healthcare and social assistance sector. Four other sectors recorded modest gains in establishments: Entertainment and Recreation (11), Transportation and Warehousing (8), Utilities (6), and Management of Companies (5). The most losses of establishments ocurred in Retail Trade (-22), Construction (-14), Finance and Insurance (-11), Accommodation and Food Services (-11), and Educational Services (-9).

Between the fourth quarters of 2013 and 2014, the highest increases in employment occurred in Transportation and Warehousing (1,269); Retail Trade (1,253); Healthcare and Social Assistance (1,034); Art, Entertainment and Recreation (543); and Accommodation and Food Services (526). The highest losses of employment were in Finance and Insurance (-689); Information (-294); Wholesale Trade (-189); Professional and Technical Services (-113); and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (-44).

Top Ten Changes in Establishments 4th Quarters 2013 and 2014 51

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Top Ten Changes in Employment 4th Quarter 2013 to 4th Quarter 2014 1,269

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1,034

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Real Estate Number of Units Sold by Type 2nd Quarter Comparison

HOUSING MARKET

Median Home Sales Price

Home Sale Price

up

4.7%

The median sales price for all homes sold during the second quarter of 2015 in Prince George’s County was $246,000, reflecting a 4.7 percent increase over the median sales price of $235,000 during the second quarter of 2014. The largest percentage increase in price was for condominium units at 22.6 percent.

3000 Number of Units Sold

MEDIAN

3500

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Single Family

Housing Market Transactions

Total

2nd Quarter 2015

2nd Quarter 2014

Percent of Units Sold by Type 80.0% 70.0% Percent of Units Sold

The total number of all units sold dropped from 3,229 units in the second quarter of 2014 to 2,241 units in the second quarter of 2015. The decline was mostly due to a reduced number of foreclosure sales. Foreclosure sales made up 21.4 percent of all single-family detached unit sales in the second quarter of 2014, but only 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2015. Similarly, foreclosure sales for single-family attached units declined from 22.0 percent of all sales to 7.5 percent, while foreclosure sales of condominiums dropped from 34.5 percent to 2.6 percent.

Single Family Condominium Attached

60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Single Family

Single Family Attached

2nd Quarter 2014

Foreclosure Events Recently, there has been a modest decline in foreclosure events. Records of the most recent three quarters show a clear reduction in the number of foreclosure events—from 2,852 in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 2,293 in the second quarter of 2015. The number of foreclosure events during the second quarter of 2015 was slightly higher than the second quarter of 2014. However, the County’s share of the total events in the State slightly declined by 1.1 percentage points during the period, from 20.1 percent to 19.0 percent. 4

Condominium

2nd Quarter 2015

Quarterly Foreclosure Events in Prince George's County 30% 3,000

26.6% 25%

2,500

23.1%

20%

20.1%

2,000 1,500

20.4% 20.1%

3,350

15%

2,278

1,000

19.0%

2,684

2,852

2,415

2,293

10% 5%

500

0%

1st Quarter 2014

2nd Quarter 2014

3rd Quarter 2014

Total Foreclosure Events

4th Quarter 2014

1st Quarter 2015

Share of State Total

2nd Quarter 2015


Increase in Median Sale Prices

The median sale prices for new and regular resale of single-family units increased 7 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively, while Real Estate Owned (REO) prices increased 4.3 percent. The largest increases in median sale prices were for condominiums, with new and regular resale sales gaining above 20 percent. For single-family attached units, the largest increase in median sale prices of 18.4 percent occurred for REO sales.

Single Family New

20.7% 6.4%

Single Family Attached

Condominium

Regular Resale

REO properties are properties that have gone through the foreclosure process and failed to sell at auction and are therefore owned by the bank or lender.

Days on the Market

10.8%

4.3%

4.2%

7.0%

9.0%

18.4%

23.8%

Median Sales Price Percent Change by Transaction and Unit Type 2nd Quarter 2014 to 2nd Quarter 2015

REO

Asking Rent Per Unit 1315 1310 1305

The average number of days on the market for all types of units decreased in the last two months of the second quarter 2015 compared to the second quarter of 2014.

Multifamily Rents

The average multifamily asking rent per unit increased by $14 or 1.3 percent from the second quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015. The County still offers some of the more affordable rents in the region with average rents $378 less than the region for a studio, $310 less for a one-bedroom, $298 less for a two-bedroom, and $191 less for a threebedroom.

Multifamily Units Under Construction The number of multifamily units under construction in the County increased significantly from 2,507 units in the second quarter of 2014 to 3,316 units in the second quarter of 2015.

1300 1295 1290 1285 2nd Quarter 2014

1st Quarter 2015

2nd Quarter 2015

Multifamily Units Under Construction 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2nd Quarter 2014

1st Quarter 2015

2nd Quarter 2015

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COMMERCIAL MARKET

Percent of Region's Commercial Real Estate In Prince George's County

Commercial Market Composition

35% 30% Percent of RBA

The County is a regional leader in the volume of industrial space of all classes with more than twice as much industrial space (50,380,520 square feet) as its closest competitor for commercial real estate space in the region, Fairfax County, which has 21,796,842 square feet.

Vacancies

6

15% 10%

0%

Change In Vacancy Rates 2nd Quarter 2014 Versus 2nd Quarter 2015 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% Office A

Office B

Office C

Retail

Industrial Industrial Industrial A B C

Flex A

Flex B

County

Flex C

Region

Total Net Absorption 2nd Quarter 2014 Versus 2nd Quarter 2015

Net Absorption (Space Leased)

350000 250000 150000 Square Feet

Net absorption is equal to the amount occupied at the end of a period minus the amount occupied at the beginning of a period and takes into consideration space vacated during the period. For the second quarter of 2015, leaders in total net absorption include Class A and B Industrial space. Only Retail and Class C Office experienced negative net absorption in the second quarter of 2015. Negative net absorption indicates that a larger volume of space was vacated than leased for the period.

20%

5%

Percent Change In Vacancy Rate

There was a very slight improvement in the Class A Office market in the County, but also a slight deterioration for Class B. (0.4 percent). The vacancy rate for Class A Office reduced by 0.4 percent, while Class B increased by 0.6 percent in the County. Meanwhile, the region experienced increases of 0.1 percent and 0.6 percent for both Class A and B Office, respectively. For the County, Class A Flex space saw the largest increase in vacancy of 11.8 percent. Among the other categories of commercial space, Class A Industrial vacancy rate increased by 1.9 percent in the County but decreased in the region by 2.2 percent. The County experienced its largest decreases in vacancy for Class B Industrial and Flex with declines of 2.7 percent and 2.4 percent, repectively. A negative percentage indicates a decline in the vacancy rate. (Office classification descriptions can be found under Endnotes.)

25%

50000 -50000 -150000 -250000 2014 2015


Rental Rates

County Revenues

$45.00 Average Rent Per Square Foot

For the second quarter of 2015, the average rent per square foot for all types of commercial space was lower in the County than the region due to the high vacancies, especially in all classes of office space. The rate for office space was 40 percent lower, retail was 20 percent, industrial 13 percent, and flex 23 percent lower.

Rental Rate Comparision Prince George's County Versus Washington Region 2nd Quarter 2015 $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00

County

$15.00

Region

$10.00 $5.00

Sales and use taxes1 collected during the second quarter of 2014 were $3,525,416, 2.9 percent higher than the second quarter of 2013. The 2.9 percent increase in sales and use taxes collected in the County was slightly less than the overall 3.5 percent increase in the State of Maryland.

$0.00

Sales and Use Tax Comparison Second Quarters 2013 and 2014

Quarter Sales and Use Tax Growth in Prince George’s County Compared to the State—2013/2014

$123.1 $43.6

$41.4

$42.3

$41.7

May

■ 2nd Quarter 2013

June

Total Second Quarter

■ 2nd Quarter 2014

Source: Comptroller of Maryland, 2015

3.5%

3.5%

3.0% Percent Growth

$40.8

April

4.0%

2.5%

$39.9

From Fiscal Year 2013 to 2014, there were modest (0.5 percent) increases in revenues from property taxes and other taxes. These were, however, offset by noticeable declines in income taxes and other revenues.

Sales and Use Tax Collected (in Millions)

CHANGES IN REVENUES

$126.6

SALES AND USE TAXES

Change in General Revenues FY 2013into FY 2014 Change General Revenues

2.9%

FY 2013 TO FY 2014

2.0%

0.5%

0.5% Income Taxes

1.5%

Property Taxes

Other Revenues Other Taxes

1.0%

-0.6%

0.5% 0%

Prince George’s County

Maryland

Source: Prince George’s County FY 2014 Budget

-2.5%

Source: Prince George’s County FY 2014 Budget

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Endnotes 1

Use Tax: The use tax is imposed on consumers of tangible personal property that is used or consumed. Use taxes are also used to help defray the cost of public services associated with particular types of personal property. The purpose of a use tax is to help recoup the cost of public services directly related to the use of certain types of personal property. The most common use taxes are assessed on motor vehicle and boat licenses. User fees are also charged for docking privileges in airports and harbors.

Office Classifications Class A Office: In general, a Class A building is an extremely desirable, investment-grade property with the highest quality construction and workmanship, materials and systems, significant architectural features, the highest quality finish and trim, abundant amenities, and first rate maintenance and management. It is normally occupied by prestigious tenants with above average rental rates and in an excellent location with exceptional accessibility. Class B Office: A Class B building offers more utilitarian space without special attractions. It will typically have ordinary architectural design and structural features, with average interior finish, systems, floor plans, and overall condition. It will typically not have the abundant amenities and location that a Class A building will have. Class C Office: A functionally or economically obsolete building is one that does not offer a viable alternative for space and does not “compete� with others of similar type for occupancy by businesses seeking a location for operations. These buildings will usually have externally visible physical or structural features as well as internal ones that render it undesirable to be leased and therefore not competitive with any other properties in the market.

The Maryland-

The Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission National Capital Prince George’s County PlanningPark Department, Research/Special Projects Section and Planning 14741 Governor Oden Bowie Drive Commission Upper Marlboro, MD 20772 www.pgplanning.org | 301-952-3065 | TTY: 301-952-4366

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