London Plan Population Projections 1.1.5 The latest population and employment projections which informed the Draft FALP show continued high levels of growth for London. The central population projection published in the Draft FALP sees London’s population rising from 8.2m in 2011 to 10.11m by 2036, a significantly higher growth than that on which the existing London Plan was predicated. 1.1.6 The London Plan (July 2011) predicted that 45,000 new homes are required every year, a total which has now been revised to 49,000 under the latest proposed alterations. However, in the last thirty years annual completions have only exceeded 20,000 on five occasions, with the peak year being less than half the new annual target. The net result has been an increase in demand in prices not only in central London but throughout the capital. Figure 1.1 below starkly illustrates the scale of the challenge facing London for new housing provision. With the sole exception of one decade, in the last 100 years, the capital has never achieved the current target for delivery of new dwellings. This is despite the large investment in council housing in the post-war period.
Figure 1.1 - London Annual Dwelling Completions by Type since 1871 Figure 1.1 - London Annual Dwelling Completions by Type since 1871 90,000
Number of completions
80,000
Private sector
70,000 60,000
Housing Association / other public sector
50,000
Local Authorities
40,000 30,000
Total (dashed line indicates estimates from national data)
20,000 10,000
2010/11
2000/01
1981
1971
1961
1990/91
Year
1951
1941
1931
1921
1911
1901
1891
1881
1871
0
Source: Draft London Housing Strategy (November 2013)
Source: London Housing Strategy (April 2014)
1.1.7 Despite the increase in the number of new planning applications it is apparent that the private sale market and investment by the Registered Providers (RPs) is not sufficient to meet future needs. Private sector completions have never exceeded 18,000 in any one year and over the past twenty years have averaged 11,600 per annum. Other forms of investment are required to meet demand.
Final Report | July 2014 | 4