CASS INDEX OUTLOOK
Cass Transportation Index Report by CASS INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC.
Cass Freight Index - Shipments U.S. freight volumes fell in April from March and the year-ago period. And with more difficult comparisons in the next few months as global supply chain disruptions are set to intensify, more softness is on the horizon. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 0.5% y/y, following a 0.6% y/y increase in March. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 2.6% from March, and this was 0.9% below the normal seasonal pattern.
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Manufacturing Outlook / May 2022
Freight was slowing even before the war in Europe began, but the effects of the additional surge of inflation and recent interest rate increases seem to have push volumes over the edge. After a nearly two-year cycle of surging freight volumes, the freight cycle has downshifted with a thud. It’s possible the April data include some indirect impact from lockdowns in China, but with container ship backlogs still off North American ports, the direct effects on finished goods imports seem more likely in the June/July timeframe.
The prospect of freight recession is now considerable, as substitution from goods back to services spending picks up pace, and as inflation slows overall spending, particularly via higher fuel prices and by pressing up interest rates. Freight Expenditures The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 0.2% m/m in April against a shipment decline of 2.6%. Compared to a year ago, total freight expenditures were up 31% y/y. Overall rates were up 2.9% . continued
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