OFFSHORE WIND
AMBITIOUS GROWTH PLANS PUT PRESSURE ON FLEET CAPACITY The EU plans to increase the region’s offshore wind capacity five-fold, from 12GW to “at least 60GW”, while the UK plans to quadruple its own offshore wind capacity over the same period. On top of that, the EU hopes to complement that with a further 40GW of ocean energy - including floating wind turbines - by 2050, which is when the EU plans to reach its goal of climate neutrality. These bold plans form part of an EU Strategy on offshore renewable energy that it predicts will cost nearly €800 billion, although it was not clear how much of this will come from public funds. But Europe’s commissioner for energy, Kadri Simson, has no doubts about the strategy’s importance: he was quoted in the statement as saying that Europe must harness “all the potential of offshore wind and ... other technologies such as wave, tidal and floating solar.” And although the timetable can be counted in decades, EU member states have only weeks to get started, the statement made clear. Offshore renewable energy development objectives must be integrated into their National Maritime Spatial Plans, which coastal states are due to submit to the Commission by March 2021. Meanwhile, Europe’s largest offshore wind energy nation, the UK plans to lift offshore wind production capacity from about 10.5GW to 40GW over the same period. This increase in capacity falls outside EU targets following the UK’s departure from the EU. To hit the EU’s 2030 target will require an average of nearly 5.5GW of additional generator capacity in each of the next nine years, which compares with 2019’s figure of 3.6GW, which WindEurope reported was a record. It says that Europe “is the leader in offshore wind” and welcomed the EU’s new strategy, saying that it will “shape the development of offshore wind in Europe for the next 30 years” and support “further expansion of floating offshore wind ... for the deeper waters in the Atlantic, Mediterranean and Black Sea.” It is against this background that the offshore wind support sector must gear up to construct and service more and bigger offshore and floating wind turbines. A WindEurope spokesman commented to The Motorship that, at the moment, there are enough vessels - in fact, over capacity - to service ongoing installations and operations. But looking ahead, “at least 10 new vessels will be required, each capable of annually installing up to 100 turbines or their foundations.” At present, the largest wind turbine is said to be the 14MW Siemens Gamesa SG 14-222 DD, which was launched in May 2020 and a prototype is expected in 2021. It will become commercially available in 2024 but it has already amassed a number of orders, including one placed in June for 100 units. Yet there is expected to be a global shortage of installation vessels able to erect large turbines in the quantities that will be needed. A study published in late November by the Norwegian consultant Rystad Energy predicts that “as turbine and project sizes grow, demand for specialised installation vessels will soar.”
20 | JANUARY 2021
Image: Siemens Gamesa
The planned rapid expansion in offshore wind capacity in Europe, as well as the demands from the next generations of turbines, is expected to lead to supply bottlenecks within five years
At present, there are “only four vessels capable of handling the next generation of turbines” out of a total fleet of 32 active turbine installation vessels and 14 dedicated foundation installation vessels, it says. Although more are on order, “the global fleet will be insufficient to meet demand after 2025,” it warns. Rystad Energy’s vice president and product manager for offshore wind, Alexander Dobrowen Fløtre, told The Motorship that the vessel market is in a ‘chicken and egg situation’: “A big portion of the longer-term demand is still only in the concept stages, which may not be enough certainty for players wanting to invest in newbuilds.” Yet “the contracting models applied in offshore wind are typically of a shorter-term nature [than] oil and gas, which may also affect investors’ decisions.” The consultant’s findings confirmed views expressed in May this year by Mary Thorogood, senior strategy specialist at the turbine maker MHI Vestas Offshore Wind. As a panellist for a webinar hosted by the organisers of the All-Energy exhibition and conference, she said that turbines are being made bigger “because our customers asked us to” even though there is “a global shortage of vessels to deliver the projects.” Also taking part in that event was Benj Sykes who, among other roles, is industry chair of the UK’s Offshore Wind Industry Council. He spoke of “a tight squeeze in the vessel supply chain” and said that “no-one can be absolutely sure where supply and demand will balance... [but] we are going to need more vessels.” At the International Marine Contractors Association (IMCA), its marine technical adviser, Andy Goldsmith, took a more nuanced view: the shortage is of “specifically designed vessels for particular tasks,” he told The Motorship.
8 The 14MW Siemens Gamesa SG 14-222 DD will be the most powerful offshore wind turbine
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