12 China 70 years from now | Giancarlo Elia Valori
18 Boao Forum, Belt & Road
and East Asian Politics | Tridivesh Singh Maini
22 President Xi Aims and Am-
bitions | S.H. Bilal
27 A Great Khan in Italy
Juan Martin Gonzlez
|
29 Italy escapes the ‘western propaganda trap’ | Carter Chapwanya and Arun Upadhyaya
31 Gwadar: A Gateway | Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
33 The nature of contempo-
rary Sino-Pakistani relations | Syeda Dhanak Hashmi
modern diplomacy 36 Belt and Road Forum Syn-
moderndiplomacy.eu
thesized China Pakistan Relations | S.H. Bilal
40 Balochistan: A powder keg
at a geopolitical crossroads | Dr. James M. Dorsey
43 Countering Terrorism and
the dawn of CPEC | Sabah Aslam
travel
46 Leaders Discuss Role of Tourism in Asia and Pacific’s Development Future
49 Chinese history comes
alive in Nanjing
51 Rediscovered: Seven City Wonders of Asia Pacific
reports China needs further reforms to make growth sustainable, greener and more inclusive East Asia and Pacific Growth Expected to Moderate as Global Headwinds Persist Philippines to Sustain Strong Growth amidst Local and Global Uncertainties Sri Lanka’s Growth to Recover Gradually But Commitment to Reforms Remains Essential
contributors PROF. GIANCARLO ELIA VALORI is an eminent Italian economist and businessman. He holds prestigious academic distinctions and national orders. He currently chairs “International World Group”, he is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group. In 1992 he was appointed Officier de la Légion d’Honneur de la République Francaise.
PROF. ENGR. ZAMIR AHMED AWAN, Sinologist (ex-Diplomate), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.
SYEDA DHANAK HASHMI is a Foreign Policy Analyst and Research Head at a think tank based in Islamabad. She has done Master of Philosophy (M.Phil.) in Governance and Public Policy. Her areas of research include both regional as well as global issues of contemporary international relations.
DR. JAMES M. DORSEY is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture, and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title, Comparative Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, co-authored with Dr. Teresita Cruz-Del Rosario and three forthcoming books, Shifting Sands, Essays on Sports and Politics in the Middle East and North Africaas well as Creating Frankenstein: The Saudi Export of Ultra-conservatism and China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom.
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
TRIDIVESH SINGH MAINI is a New Delhi based Policy Analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat, India
M WAQAS JAN Research Associate and Program Coordinator for the China Study & Information Centre (CS & IC) at the Strategic Vision Institute, a non-partisan think tank based out of Islamabad. JUAN MARTIN GONZLEZ CABAÑAS is a senior researcher and analyst at the Dossier Geopolitico
CARTER CHAPWANYA is a published author and currently a Political Science PhD candidate at Shandong University.
ARUN UPADHYAYA is currently an International Politics PhD candidate at Shandong University
S.H. BILAL. Islamabad based freelance contributor and researcher. His area of research is south Asia special focus on china India relations.
SABAH ASLAM is the Founder & Executive Director of Islamabad Institute of Conflict Resolution (IICR), and member visiting faculty Dept. of Peace & Conflict Studies, NUML, and School of Politics & IR, Quaid-I- Azam University, Islamabad.
Growth and Relations Dr. Matthew Crosston
In this second issue of MD's new BRIDGE project, the focus can be simply put: growth and relations. This will likely be the underlying foundation of all future BRIDGE issues, as there can be no doubt that China's purpose in creating the Belt & Road Initiative has always been twofold: improving relations from its immediate Southeast Asia neighborhood to the far western shores of Western Europe and to promote growth globally in a manner that will further feed Chinese interests and ambitions long into the 21st century.
The debate likely to also undergird every issue of The Bridge project here at Modern Diplomacy will be the one taking place even now between the supporters and opponents of the BRI: are those Chinese ambitions and interests tied to the BRI able to positively feed into the global system, helping all participants improve and sustain growth, or are they innately nationalist in nature, ultimately driving a future form of Chinese hegemony that might rewrite the global order as we know it?
This second issue will not answer that question conclusively. It is unlikely that any issue will be able to. But The Bridge as a geopolitical and analytical project will set the stage for providing new evidence-based argumentation and analysis for all those interested in discerning an answer. Most importantly, as is the core mission of Modern Diplomacy overall, we take great pride in bringing to the forefront voices and ideas not often heard or read amongst Western audiences. If the Belt & Road Initiative proves anything, then it is the simple fact that western-centric and euro-centric analyses must begin to be diversiďŹ ed with new voices, new minds, and new non-Western arguments. The Bridge, we hope, is going to do just that!
THE BRIDGE
China needs further reforms to make growth sustainable, greener and more inclusive
The Chinese economy continues to slow as it rebalances, with headwinds including trade frictions and the weakening global economy undermining exports and creating new uncertainties. Policy should focus on long-term strategies to move the economy towards greater domestic consumption and services, enhancing economic efficiency and ensuring that future growth is sustainable, greener and more inclusive, according to a new report from the OECD.
The latest OECD Economic Survey of China looks at the factors behind the economic slowdown as well as policies that can boost the quality of future growth and ensure that it is more equitably distributed. Despite the slowdown, the Survey projects growth above 6% this year and next, and sees continuing convergence with more advanced economies.
The Survey underlines the need for more balanced trade and investment. Policy should aim to further lower import tariffs and dismantle non-tariff barriers
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
and barriers on the entry and conduct of foreign firms, in particular requirements to form joint ventures or transfer technology.
While much has been done to address financial risks, China’s ongoing fiscal stimulus should avoid directing credit to stateowned enterprises and local governments, the Survey said. Debt ceilings should take into account sub-national government revenues.
The Survey sees wide scope to improve efficiency across the economy, notably by reducing the internal barriers that hinder product market competition and labour mobility. Strengthening the rule of law, restricting the power of administrative departments and providing clear and detailed implementation rules limiting their discretionary powers would reduce protectionism at the local level. Antimonopoly rules and enforce ment can be strengthened and public procurement processes could be made more transparent, technology-neutral and open to all players.
Other measures to boost economic efficiency highlighted by the Survey include stronger protection of intellectual property rights; gradual removal of implicit guarantees to stateowned enterprises, allowing them to default; and reduction of state ownership in commercially-oriented, non-strategic sectors.
To ensure equal opportunities, the Survey recommends China to distribute more evenly highquality education and health care in order to reduce incentives to move to mega-cities. Gradually easing restrictions on access to public services for city residents without the hukou (residency permit) and eventually delinking service provision from the hukou would also help improve equity. Centralised financing of key spending items, such as wage bills in education and health, reforms to the floor and ceiling for social security contributions and wider tax reform should be pursued.
To make growth greener, the Survey suggests China enforce environmental regulations more strictly, raise fines for polluters and boost environmental taxation, particularly on fossil fuels. Putting an end to the construction of coal-fired power plants and increasing investment in pollution treatment facilities, urban water treatment and rural sanitation is also necessary.
/08
07
East Asia and Pacific Growth Expected to Moderate as Global Headwinds Persist
Growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) is projected to soften to 6.0 percent in 2019 and 2020, down from 6.3 percent in 2018, largely reflecting global headwinds and a continued gradual policyguided slowdown in China. Still, the region’s economies weathered the financial markets volatility of 2018 relatively well largely due to effective policy frameworks and strong fundamentals, including diversified economies, flexible exchange rates, and solid policy buffers.
While trade policy uncertainty has abated somewhat, global trade growth is likely to moderate further, according to Managing Headwinds, the April 2019 edition of the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released here today. Domestic demand has remained strong in much of the region, the report adds, partly offsetting the impact of slowing exports.
China’s ongoing, policy-guided slowdown will lead to 6.2 percent growth in 2019 and 2020,
down from 6.6 percent in 2018. Growth in Indonesia and Malaysia is projected to remain unchanged in 2019, while growth rates in Thailand and Vietnam are expected to be slightly lower in 2019. In the Philippines, a delay in approving the 2019 national government budget is expected to weigh on GDP growth in 2019, but growth is anticipated to pick up in 2020.
economy recovers from a catastrophic earthquake in 2018. Growth in Fiji is projected to continue to rise, albeit at a more tempered pace as reconstruction efforts near completion in the aftermath of tropical cyclones.
To face these persistent risks the report details both shortand medium-term responses. In the short term, it calls for strengthening reduced buffers, including rebuilding international reserves that were drawn upon to manage exchange rate volatility in 2018. Monetary policy may also need to be adjusted to become more neutral as risks of capital outflows have abated.
Growth prospects among the smaller economies in EAP remain favorable. Large infrastructure projects are expected to accelerate growth for Lao PDR and Mongolia. Cambodia’s growth is projected to remain robust, although at a slower pace than in 2018, mainly due to weaker-than-expected exter- The report highlights the importance of continued structural nal demand. reforms in the medium term – Expansionary fiscal policy is ex- to increase productivity, boost pected to boost growth in competitiveness, create better Myanmar in the short term, opportunities for the private while recent structural reforms sector, and strengthen counare expected to support growth tries’ human capital. in the medium term. Growth is expected to pick up in Papua New Guinea in 2019 as the THE BRIDGE
Philippines to Sustain Strong Growth amidst Local and Global Uncertainties
Amidst lingering global and local uncertainties, the Philippine economy is poised to grow at 6.4 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent in 2020 and 2021, according to the Philippines Economic Update (PEU) released here today by the World Bank. These new estimates are lower than the previous World Bank forecasts of 6.5 percent growth in 2019 and 6.6 percent in 2020 released in January this year, owing to several factors including the delay in the 2019 budget approval and the slowing down of global trade that can lead to weaker demand for Philippine exports. Growth of the Philippine economy has historically been driven by consumption, with households contributing more than two-thirds of aggregate expenditures.
Annual private consumption growth declined from 5.9 percent in 2017 to 5.6 percent in 2018 due to high inflation. However, it is expected to rebound to 5.9 percent in 2019 and 6.0 percent in 2020 due to declin-
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
ing inflation and the continued job generation in the economy. Remittances are expected to remain steady as new employment opportunities for Filipinos become available in countries like Japan, Germany, and Poland, further fueling consumption.
The PEU, however, flags several risks that can affect the Philippines’ overall growth prospects, among them the delay in the approval of the 2019 budget and a looming drought. Under a reenacted budget, the report said, the government cannot implement new programs and projects, thus affecting public investment. The El Niño phenomenon that is expected to cause several months of dry spell might reduce farm output and raise food prices. The report highlights the risks posed by external factors, including the potential escalation of trade tensions between the US and China and weak demand for the country’s exports. It also mentions potential challenges stemming from a strengthening US dollar, and
hikes in US interest rates that could raise borrowing costs for the country’s infrastructure projects. In the long term, the report says that the country needs to focus on raising investments in human capital (people’s health, nutrition, education and skills) to speed up inclusive growth or growth that benefits the poor and most vulnerable. In the Human Capital Index report released last year by the World Bank, the Philippines scored 0.55. This means that children born in the country today are expected to achieve only 55 percent of their potential income when they reach adulthood, compared to fully healthy children who receive a complete, high-quality education. Effective implementation of the government’s human capital initiatives (for instance, the Professional Standards for Teachers, Plan of Action for Nutrition, and Universal Health Coverage Law) will make it possible for the Philippines and all Filipinos to achieve their full potential.
/10
09
Sri Lanka’s Growth to Recover Gradually But Commitment to Reforms Remains Essential
Sri Lanka’s economic growth is projected to pick up to 3.6% in 2019 and further to 3.8% in 2020 from 3.2% in 2018, a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report says.
ADB’s flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019, forecasts a gradual recovery supported by a turnaround in the construction sector and continued growth in services. The agriculture sector, which picked up pace in 2018 after two years of weak performance, is expected to continue growing at the same pace assuming weather conditions remain normal.
Proposals announced in the 2019 budget will support private expenditure and thus growth. The public investment to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is expected to pick up and will be an impetus to investment and the construction sector. Overall, the budget aims to keep the primary balance in surplus in 2019 and 2020 and reduce the fiscal deficit further,
thereby maintaining the path of certainties may affect market sentiment and exert pressure fiscal consolidation. on the Sri Lankan rupee. Headline inflation, as measured by the national consumer price A key policy challenge for the index, is expected to inch up to Sri Lankan economy is recur3.5% in 2019 and further to rent weather-related disasters 4.0% in 2020 stemming from a in 2016 and 2017 that have had pickup in economic activity, multiple impacts as evidenced base effect for inflation, and a by slow economic growth, high strengthening in nonfood and domestic food prices, a high oil core inflation observed since import bill, high government late 2018 and early 2019. spending, and high number of food-insecure households limThe current account deficit will iting daily minimum calorie indrop to 2.5% of GDP in 2019 take. and increase marginally in 2020. A recovery in agriculture With a large proportion of the exports, continued increase in population close to the poverty tourist earnings, and a slow- line, gains made in poverty redown in vehicle imports will duction over the past two contribute to a decline in cur- decades may be at risk from exrent account deficit. Though posure to disasters. Sri Lanka the impact of Brexit on the over- needs to focus on areas prone all Sri Lankan economy is esti- to disasters and to move tomated to be marginal, a ward a more disaster-resilient downside risk to the garment economy by preventing and sector emanates from a no- mitigating consequences of deal Brexit scenario involving a weather-related hazards. possible tariff escalation between Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. The large repayments on account of external debt servicing and political unTHE BRIDGE
11
/12
China 70 years from now by Giancarlo Elia Valori
In my opinion, after the 19th CPC National Congress, two changes characterize the new form of Communist China: the amendment to the Party’s Constitution, with the phrase “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” introduced directly by current President Xi Jinping. The other change is the new autonomous dimension of the Party’s ideology and hence of its practice.
This is the “miracle” promised to China by President Xi Jinping in his speech on the 40th anniversary of China’s Reforms started by Deng Xiaoping. A miracle that has in fact made China ready for a “new start”, while “the Party has strengthened China’s new pride” – after the mistakes of the “Cultural
Revolution”, in particular – while the economic and social reforms could anyway lead to “sudden storms”. Therefore China will not allow separatisms – “not even an inch of our Motherland can and will be separated from China”. Hence a hegemonic China, but “without seeking hegemony”.
The instrument to put an end to contemporary hegemonism, in a context in which President Xi Jinping uses again Mao Zedong’s “Three Worlds Theory”. The capitalistic and developed World, which includes the “two empires” -the two superpowers – and the two client States, and finally the Third World that will be led by China. Hence China as owner of an economic development that “poses no threats to others”. THE BRIDGE
On the contrary, and precisely for this reason – as President Xi Jinping maintains – “no one is currently in a position to dictate to China what should or should not be done in the world”. In its essence, this is exactly the “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” that President Xi Jinping wants to reaffirm both nationally and internationally.
Again according to the current CPC’s tradition, the origin is to be found in Marx’, Engels’ and Lenin’s ideology, but above all within the project redeveloped by Mao Zedong, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. As can be seen, after Lenin the traditional sequence of Chinese points of reference for Marxism-Leninism was over. It continued with Mao and was later resumed – after the Four Modernizations – temporarily a few years ago.
Finally it imitated capitalism, without ever having a real potential to do so, while China was building its rational (and national) Socialism in rural areas, without imitating – at least after the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1961 – the European capitalist accumulation, nor the huge massacre of the Russian Bolsheviks’ crazy “rural reforms” between Crimea and Ukraine.
a profound modernization of the system, of society and of the CPC itself.
Hence, President Xi thinks that there are currently four goals at reach. Firstly, Socialism with Chinese Characteristics that now, thanks to President Xi Jinping, is fully embedded in China. Secondly, the Party’s ideology, which is always falling within the State’s competence and is hence responsible for the Nation’s and People’s national evolution, but now merges national interest with Socialism. Thirdly, the reaffirmation of the Party’s role on the State, which may still be lagging behind President Xi Jinping’s project. Fourthly, the Party’s culture, which is the one and only guidance for the Party itself.
Hence, currently President Xi Jinping think that the result of implementing his Thought is the definitive “sinicization” of Socialism and the Party. The effects of this new operational and political tradition by President Xi Jinping are seen – first and foremost – in the greater efficacy of the Chinese government. President Xi Jinping’ Socialist government adapts to Chinese society – in view of In other words, this means transforming it – fitting like a strengthening the Party’s culNothing has been decided yet. glove on a hand. ture to improve its role as an exA Great Helmsman is still need ample, as policy line and as ed to guide, orient and direct The doctrinal and abstract tra- future direction. According to the Socialist modernization of dition of Chinese Marxism- President Xi Jinping, the Party’s China. Leninism ended precisely with primary goal for the whole ChiHence, there is no actual link President Xi Jinping’s action. nese Nation, and not only for its between the Russian tradition Currently the Chinese Nation proletariat, is the improvement of Communist revolution and and its historical project, and, above all, the current conthe Chinese one. This is also namely Socialism, are the same solidation of the People’s living understandable: Russia wanted thing. conditions. Wellbeing is one of to follow the capitalist West so the goalsof “President Xi Jinas to later destroy it – albeit it Progress towards Socialism - ping’s policy line” that domifailed in this regard – while now inherent in the fabric of the nates the Party, in addition to China was mainly concerned Party, of the State and of soci- the gradual construction of a with the Third World, to which ety – is the same as the peace- Great Country for everybody Communist Russia certainly ful and multilateral reaffir (no limitation to China’s military did not belong. Later Russia ac- mation of the Chinese Nation and strategic prestige) and a cepted the Cold War, the use- as such. Pragmatism, above all Strong Country (no limitation to less “paper tiger”, in which adherence to the reality of Chi- Socialist China’s geopolitical China has never believed. nese society, but together with projection).
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
/14
13
As early as July 1921, when the Communist Party of China was established in Shanghai, the founding members included Li Dazhiao, the founder of the Research Association on Marxism. From the beginning, there was an independent study on the dialectic of classes and on historical materialism, based on Chinese material conditions.
Also a Civil Country (no limitation to the people’s cultural and ideological evolution) shall be constructed and a Democratic Country (the maximum representation, within the Party, for all the voices of Chinese society), as well as a Harmonious Country, i.e. without the typical imbalance of society with respect to the evolution of its political direction. “Productive Forces” and “Relations of Production”, just to put it in Marxist terms.
Hence the Party dictates the policy line and the Chinese harmonious society adapts it to every condition and situation.
Hence the study was focused on the specificities of the possible Chinese Communist revolution, as well as on the autonomy of the national and social thought. Maximum attention was paid to the classics of Marxism, while the Russian Bolsheviks were still unable to define their own way, between global revolution in capitalist countries and what could already be perceived, namely “Socialism in one country”. As early as August 1921, a few days after the Party’s foundaIt is in this sense that today, tion, Zhang Guotao established under President Xi’s leadership, the Secretariat of Chinese we can speak about a particu- Workers. lar “China’s Renaissance”. From the beginning – and this A mass Renaissance – just to is a sign that persists and, inrecall Antonio Gramsci’s theo- deed, is strengthening even ries -that hence avoids the today – the workers’ represenproblem of being – like the Ital- tation and the Party were alian national Risorgimento- a most the same organization “reform led by the elites alone” that overlapped. It never hapand limited in its scope and pur- pened in the history of any poses. Hence national and cul- Communist Party. Hence no tural mass renaissance, spread Stalinist “transmission belt”: among all classes of the Peo- the trade union and the Party were both inside the Chinese ple, the Party and the Nation. We should not believe that this society and transformed it historical phase is based on a every day, without the old-fashlimited, artificial or ad hoc ioned separation between “reforms” and / or “revolution” – memory. THE BRIDGE
the sign of a rough thought and, to many extents, not typical of Chinese wisdom, in which every change and every revolution are either large or small. It depends but, however, it is not a subjective evaluation. Also the relationship between the newly founded Communism and the Chinese national movement strengthened from the beginning. There was not the long discussion between the national and progressive movement and the proletarian movement that was the basis for the evolution of the European, Western and Russian Communist debate. Sun Yat-Sen’s Kuomintang immediately opened its doors to Chinese Communist trade unionists, who characterized the trade union movement far beyond the limits of their Party.
Another anomalous tradition of Chinese Marxism compared to the West, as well another root of the bond between the Party and the Masses, that President Xi Jinping still passionately emphasizes. In 1922 Mao Zedong, Liu Shaoqi and Li Lisan organized trade unions and mass strikes, not only of the Communist workers – as in the West – but in the Hunan Province. MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
Nevertheless, the price paid by the Kuomintang was very high: in January 1924 the CPC became part of the Kuomintang itself, albeit with three clauses: the alliance with the USSR; the stable unity of action with the Communist Party; the equally stable mass action with peasants and workers. Three factors that led to the end of Sun Yat Sen’s nationalist movement – except for new and powerful allies.
Again in July 1922, the Chinese Communists decided to collaborate with the then progressive nationalism of Sun Yat Sen and the Kuomintang, even in opposition to Mao, who did not fully agree. In that case there was no obvious “entryism”, as we say in the That choice was at the origin of jargon of European Commuboth the CPC’s nationalist roots nism: in China, Mao’s CPC was – without delays and rhetoric – a Party entrenched within the and of certain ideological infil- masses it stably represented trations that Mao Zedong tried and connected with what the to later use or eliminate. A prob- Marxists – probably somehow lem that President Xi Jinping naively – still defined “national has definitely solved. A very se- bourgeoisie”. As early as 1924, vere problem, i.e. adapting with- in Shanghai the CPC decided to out imitating and, hence, step up “mass work”, while prewithout absorbing the contra- serving its organization indedictions of Western capitalism, pendent of the Kuomintang. which is still in Xi Jinping’s mind. The national bourgeoisie and the so-called “compradora” Only in 1923 did the CPC and bourgeoisie merged in Chinathe CPSU sign a mutual collab- and hence in the Kuomintang. oration agreement. Therefore the CPC needed to When, while referring to Rus- become autonomous and work sians, Deng Xiaoping spoke with every part of the revoluabout the “enemies of the tionary bourgeoisie. North”, he was still the spearhead of an old tradition of Chi- Unlike what happened in Eunese Communism. rope during the same period, when the national Communist In 1923, however, the CPC offi- Party either stood as the enemy cially adopted the “Russian pol- of everyone – and above all of icy line”.At the time, Mao the progressive bourgeoisie – Zedong joined the Central Com- or rendered itself useless by remittee and actively collabo- maining in a sort of splendid rated with the Kuomintang. and useful isolation.
/16
15
Or it accepted unity with everyone, thus starting to lose itself and its political autonomy. The Canton Merchants’ Corps Uprising of August 1924 – in which the merchants were supported by Great Britain -was initially a rebellion against a new tax imposed by the government, which everyone also considered an expression of the USSR. The uprising was repressed, but the CPC’s struggle to avoid being identified as a simple offshoot of Russia was successful.
Russian Bolsheviks – there is no Chinese Communism not referring directly to a specific and material analysis of the peasant conditions.
Hence we cannot reduce the peasant issue to a trivial theme – not by chance used both by the Russian Bolshevik Communists in their heinous “reforms” and by capitalists of the 1960s, the years of “take-off” and “underdevelopment”. Rural areas were not tantamount to underdevelopment. They were tantamount to exOn that occasion, the Kuom- ploitation, if anything. Without intang’s Central Bank was cre- underdevelopment, what could ated. It happened in Canton, we eat? while, shortly afterwards, China found itself in four areas domi- Hence, as already seen, the nated by weak military coali- CPC was born within the union tions. That was the real and and realistic context of the proempirical connection of Social- tection of needs of a wide maism with national unity in China. jority of people, mainly rural, while maintaining a sound poWithout unity of the Chinese litical and ideological class people – apart from the identi- identity – as is still the case ties imposed by colonialism today. In 1928, Chiang Kai(and by some “friendly” country, Shek’s troops, the Kuomintang, currently as in the past) – there occupied Peking. could be no unity of the nation and, hence, of Socialism itself In that year, again referring to which, if not led by the People’s the rural masses, the CPC orParty of China, would inevitably dered the “Autumn Harvest Uprepeat the “century of humilia- rising”, thus triggering and tion”. Finally, in early May 1925, resolving the problem of the Mao Zedong was elected Pres- true origin of class struggle in ident of the rural federation, al- China, i.e. the clash between ways under the then national poor peasants and landowners. and progressive aegis of the Kuomintang. In 1929, the law confiscating the lands of Xing’guo and the Hence without an analysis of new Civil Code were enacted. the peasant conditions – which Hence the confiscation of State is not mere productive “back- lands and of those belonging to wardness”, according to the old landowners started.
The war against Japan, which had invaded Manchuria, began. In February 1936, the Red Army marched towards Shiensi and recruited thousands of peasants, also with the support of the local warlord. The CPC asked not to requisition the lands of those who had fought against Japan. Nation and People, but also Socialist transformation of the economy. All three things together – as is currently the case.
After many acts of war, also the tragic Nanjing massacre took place. A cruel slaughter of local inhabitants by Japan. 350,000 civilians were annihilated. China’s main cities were conquered by Japan, which meanwhile had established the capital in Peking.
In 1943 the war was not over yet: the CPC adopted the socalled policy line of the “Resolution of the Many Traditional Problems”, under Mao’s direct supervision. In 1945 Mao’s positions at the CPC Congress gained the upper hand in Ya’an – hence the policy line of the coalition government.
Therefore the CPC’s essential political issue was solved, i.d. the national bourgeoisie that had become part of the Party. THE BRIDGE
Also the social issue was solved, with the autonomous leadership of the CPC, which dealt with the great agrarian reform. There was also the military and strategic issue that, at the time, was already outside the CPSU scope. Finally uniqueness of power after the evident defeat of the Kuomintang. Almost the same as today.
In 1948, the Chinese People’s Bank was established as issuing bank.
In particular, it guaranteed the funds necessary for the companies to reach the goals of the five-year plan. Autonomy from the global financial cycle, when needed – as is currently the case. In 1949 the Red Army returned to the liberated city of Shanghai.
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
What about the Belt and Road Initiative? Today’s Long March? What role does it currently play? It is largely a legacy of Hu Jintao and of the solution of the Chinese border issue by Jiang Zemin.
Hence making the energy supply safe for China with the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as getting out of the spiral between monetary QE and commercial expansion, only thanks to the huge dimension of the Belt and Road Initiative, and fiAt predictive level, it is a matter nally finding an outlet for forof 65 countries with a maxi- eign direct investment that mum trade totalling 2.5 trillion China desperately needs. US dollars over ten years, with a project like this one that is ex- A current sum of factors repected to amount to 26% of the sponding to the three policy current Chinese foreign trade. lines with which the Party was founded: national interest at An opportunity to find a way first, unity of the Nation and out, to remove dangerous land economic development. borders and to finally put an end to China’s estrangement from contemporary world. Not a “Cold War”, but a gradual multilateral and bilateral integration.
17
/18
Boao Forum, Belt & Road and East Asian Politics by Tridivesh Singh Maini The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), which was formed in 2001, and manages to draw top world leaders, heads of multilateral institutions, and academics has been dubbed by many as ‘Summer Davos’ and has begun to understandably draw attention with China’s increasing economic clout and heft on the global stage. For this year’s forum held at Boao, a coastal town in Hainan province, Chinese President, Xi Jinping who was travelling to Europe, was absent, and many other senior Chinese officials were in Beijing in connection with the trade negotiations with the US. Last year there were a number of other high profile attendees including IMF Chief, Christine Lagarde.
There was a general perception, that last year’s Forum was given more importance, apart from the presence of President Xi and other senior Chinese officials, the event received greater
coverage. Significantly, President Xi’s address last year was covered on Chinese Television, while Prime Minister Li Keqiang’s key note address was not televised.
The Chinese PM reiterated Beijing’s support for multilateral trading system, while pitching for reforms in the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The Chinese Premier also outlined some of the key reforms China is undertaking and flagged some of the steps being taken for encouraging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Li also said that Beijing would take specific steps for opening up sectors such as transport, infrastructure, telecommunications, medical care and education, ..
Ever since US President has adopted insular policies, China has been trying to send an impression that unlike Washington it is in favour of global ization and Free Trade. THE BRIDGE
This was evident during last year’s World Economic Forum held at Davos and even at the Boao Forum last year, President Xi Jinping had said:
Boao Forum, BRI and East Asian Politics
cited as an instance of China’s Debt Trap Diplomacy. The South Asian nation was represented by Rajith Keerthi Tennakoon,Governor of Southern Province. Chinese media highlighted this aspect of the Forum
The Forum was important, not just from the standpoint of Beijing highlighting some of its key “We will never threaten anyone, economic policies, but also in nor overthrow the existing inter- the context of the Belt and national system” Road Initiative (BRI), and the future of the Japan-China rela- With regard to closer cooperaXi had also dispelled the notion tionship. tion between Japan and China that China was seeking to build in third countries, Hiroshi spheres of influence. On the Importantly, Sri Lanka spoke in Nakaso, chairman of the Daiwa other hand, the Chinese Presi- favour of the BRI. The Hamban- Institute of Research and fordent stated that he will con- tota Port project, which has mer deputy governor of the tribute to world peace and that been handed over by Sri Lanka Bank of Japan (BOJ) said that Beijing would seek to be ‘… a to Chinese companies for a pe- the currency swap of October contributor to global develop- riod of 99 years, has con- 2018 would promote third party ment and a defender of interna- tributed to Sri Lanka’s rising cooperation between private tional order,” debt to China and has been sectors of both countries. MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
19
The second development is particularly interesting, because on the one hand, Tokyo is seeking to provide an alternative to BRI, through the PQI (Partnership for Quality Infrastructure), but on the other it is also willing to cooperate where necessary. Increasing relevance of Hainan Region
The forum was also used to strengthen ties between China’s Hainan region and neighbouring countries, but also to send a clear message, that it is a key player within the BRI.
Hainan, which was declared as China’s 12th Free Trade Zone in 2018, is important for a number of reasons. It is strategically located, and is an important component of the BRI as was emphasized by senior officials during the recent forum. Between November-2018 and March 2019 it has received over 27 Billion USD. Hainan’s role in BRI and ties with ASEAN countries
If one were to look at HainanASEAN ties. An ASEAN-China Governors/Mayors’ Dialogue has played a key role in bolstering links between Hainan and South East Asian Countries. Trade between Hainan and ASEAN was estimated at over 12.5 Billion USD for the year 2018 (ASEAN bloc was Hainan’s single largest trading partner).
/20
Apart from economic linkages, Hainan has strong connectivity with ASEAN.
Only recently, the Hainan-Singapore ASEAN liner route was begun. The launch of this route was co-hosted by the provincial government of Hainan and China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) SHIPPING .As a result of this, the Yangpu Port in Hainan has become a gateway between China’s Western Regions and Singapore. Hainan province has thus emerged as an important pivot of the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor (ILSTC) (also known as Chongqing Connectivity Iniwould explore greater collabotiative). ration in areas such as; ‘health, There are a number of cruises blue economy, tourism, culture, from Hainan to ASEAN coun- education, technology, tropical tries – such as Vietnam and agriculture and seed producPhillipines. To harness its cru- tion,’ cial geographic location, there is likely to be an emphasis on Seed cooperation for instance, air connectivity between has been another area in which Hainan with not just Asian Hainan’s cooperation with countries in the neighbourhood, neighbouring countries in but also Africa, Europe and ASEAN has witnessed a rise. Oceania. During this year’s Hybrid rice seeds cultivated by Boao forum the theme of the scientists at the Nanfan ScienASEAN-China Governors/May- tific and Research Breeding ors Dialogue was “ASEAN- Base in Hainan are being introChina Connectivity and Hainan duced not just in ASEAN countries, but South Asia as well Free Trade Port,” .. (5,50,000 hectares of hybrid Hainan off course seeks to ex- rice have been cultivated in pand its cooperation with countries in Philippines, IndoneASEAN countries, and not re- sia Vietnam and India). strict it to just the economic The overall aim of this Local ofsphere or connectivity. ficials from both sides, signed Wang Sheng, director of the an agreement to strengthen the Foreign Affairs Office of Hainan strategic partnership between province, said that Hainan ASEAN and China. THE BRIDGE
First, that Chinese Provinces conduct their external outreach in a well thought out manner based on geographical location and synergies. For instance, while Hainan is seeking to build links across the world, its thrust has been on neighbouring countries within ASEAN, this is evident from its trade and connectivity initiatives. The fact, that each Province has been empowered to strengthen not just commercial linkages, but enhance people to people ties, Second, it is interesting to see and has designated provincial that international events and fo- officials to facilitate outreach is rums are not restricted to either also beneficial. Shanghai or Beijing. A large number of events such as G20, Second, linkages between ChiShanghai Cooperation Organi- nese provinces and other counsation are organised outside tries are not restricted to the big cities, this helps in rais- economics and connectivity, so ing the profile of these cities. as to send out a message, that Recent examples include the Chinese provinces want to 2016 G20 Summit held in build links by effectively utilisHangzhou (Zhenjiang), Brazil ing ‘Soft Power’. This helps in Russia, India, China Summit blunting, to some extent, the (BRICS) Summit of 2017 at Xia- perception that China is only inmen (Fujian Province), SCO terested in furthering its ecoSummit 2018 held at Qingdao. nomic goals at any cost. Beijing obviously uses the Boao Forum as a tool for furthering its views on global economic and foreign policy issues. It has been receiving all the more attention in recent years due to Trump’s isolationist policies. China by appointing a high profile individual like Ban Ki Moon, Former Secretary General of UN as President of the Boao Forum for Asia in April 2018 has further enhanced the prestige of this event.
Even if one were to look beyond the symbolic aspect, a number of other points emerge.
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
/22
21
President Xi Aims and Ambitions by S.H. Bilal
Since coming to power in 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed a more active foreign policy and advocated for China to play a larger role in global governance. Last year, China chaired the Hangzhou G20 Summit and ratified the Paris Agreement on climate change.
This year, China held an international cooperation forum on the Belt and Road Initiative and in September will convene the ninth BRICS summit in Xiamen.
Amid strong anti-globalization sentiments in Europe and the U.S., there is a debate over what Xi’s aims and intentions are in his effort to build new Chinese multilateral mechanisms for global governance, such as the Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank, and reform existing institutions
Over the course of this year, the world has seen the United States step back from its role in global governance and walk away from deals like the TransPacific Partnership and Paris Climate Agreement. The retreat has raised questions about how the United States will respond to global crises escalating around the world.
From violent extremism to displaced refugees, 2017 has seen far-reaching strife and calamity still to be addressed in 2018. Against this backdrop, China is making further inroads in expanding economically and asserting itself in global affairs. At the same time, China is hesitant to play a leadership role in areas where the United States is retreating and has to contend with ongoing disputes in its own backyard, including North Korea. THE BRIDGE
Trump administration continues to inject new uncertainties into the future of U.S. nuclear policy and the U.S.-China nuclear and strategic security relationship. Efforts to maintain strategic stability between Washington and Beijing are also facing challenges from U.S. allies in the region. Japan worries that a stable U.S.-China nuclear relationship would embolden China to take more aggressive military action against Japan and other regional actors.
What might the world look like in the year ahead in terms of hotspots of conflicts and how should governments and institutions tackle pressing crises?
With his inaugural visit to the Asia-Pacific region taking place just two weeks after President Xi Jinping’s elevation at the 19th Party Congress, President Donald Trump’s stop in China will be among the most consequential. The United States would like to partner more closely with China on pressing issues like addressing the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. At the same time, the Trump administration has expressed concerns about China’s respect for the international rulesbased order and discriminatory
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
Chinese trade and economic policies. During Xi Jinping’s first state visit to the United States in 2015, much attention was placed on agreements made by the two leaders on cybersecurity and commitments on South China Sea policy. Less well known is that the two nations signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to designate funding toward coope ration on international development. The agreement serves as a guiding framework for curbing global poverty through cooperation on issues like food security, public health, and humanitarian assistance and disaster response. The United States has begun modernizing its nuclear program even as the
South Korea has also expressed concerns over how the U.S.-China relationship may impact U.S. deterrence and security guarantees for South Korea. The United States has long played a key role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but President Trump has called NATO “obsolete” and criticized other members for not paying their fair share in military spending.
The future of NATO and U.S. alliances in the region could hang in the balance as the Trump administration shifts focus to the “America first” agenda. At the same time, elections in France, the Netherlands, and Germany are also putting a strain on the EU as populist candidates gain more ground among voters. While European heads of state have expressed hope that key players like U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis will help preserve the transatlantic alliance, China could benefit from a U.S. retreat.
23
It is promoting its Belt and Road Initiative, and some European countries have thus far been receptive to the deals offered.
The Middle East has historically been a strong focus of U.S. foreign policy; China, as part of its rise as a global power, is increasingly looking to grow its economic engagement in the region. But questions remain regarding the ability of the two countries to cooperate in the Middle East. While the United States reviews its policy in the region, the Trump administration has vocalized strong positions on issues such as the Iran nuclear deal and even taken military actions on Syria. At the same time, China is focusing on promoting its Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East and continues to make technology investments in countries like Israel.
China and Russia have established closer ties under the leadership of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, forging largescale energy and economic ties, conducting joint naval exercises, and signing treaties to reaffirm their strategic partnership. While world leaders hoped the United States and Russia would focus on areas in which to cooperate in the postCold War era, more emphasis has been placed on competition. Rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, though, has renewed discussions about a possible improvement of U.S.-
/24
Russia relations that has the transition driven primarily by potential to shift the great China’s economic and military power dynamics. rise and a corresponding relative decline in American power. “Traditionally, China and Pak- Efforts by the United States or istan have cooperated closely China to secure future predomat the strategic and political lev- inance will prove futile and danels. Now the two nations are gerous, given a host of security, making efforts to expand their economic, and diplomatic facbilateral collaboration econom- tors. Instead, creating a stable ically as well. The construction de facto balance of power is of the China-Pakistan Eco- necessary and feasible for both nomic Corridor (CPEC) is a countries. milestone that signifies this shift.”Over the past few years, This shift could take the form security tensions in the Asia- of a more durable balance that Pacific have increased, raising would necessitate major rethe question of how to ensure gional changes that would be continued strategic stability be- difficult to achieve, or a more tween the world’s great powers. feasible but less stable balance This region is home to five nu- involving more modest adjustclear states—China, Russia, ments. The incremental, condiIndia, Pakistan, and the United tional process this would entail States—in addition to nuclear involves developing domestic programs in North Korea and consensus, securing allied and Iran. friendly support, deepening U.S.-China dialogue, and U.S. government’s Asia policy is achieving interlinked changes deeply uncertain. While North in several existing regional seKorea continues to carry out curity policies. more sophisticated nuclear tests and tensions escalate in A highly stable balance would the South China Sea, U.S.-China necessitate substantial prog cooperation is more important ress on several security hot than ever for regional stability spots, including the creation of in the Asia-Pacific. However, a a unified, largely nonaligned Kogrowing number of cyber dis- rean Peninsula, a demilitarized putes is challenging the rela- Taiwan Strait, and militarily limtionship between the two major ited, jointly developed East and powers. South China Seas. It would also encompass a more open ecoHow will these foreign policy is- nomic environment charactersues in Asia be perceived and ized by an inclusive, regionaddressed by the Trump admin- wide trade and investment istration? The Western Pacific agreement. A more attainable is experiencing a fundamental though less stable balance inand potentially destabilizing stead would involve joint efmilitary and economic power forts to sustain a regional free THE BRIDGE
trade and investment system short of a comprehensive regional trade agreement, as well as shared understandings regarding potential crisis contingencies on the Korean Penin sula and Taiwan.
The magnitude and scope of relative military and economic strength between the major powers of the region are decisive in determining the pace, scale, and intensity of security competitions. Delaying or futilely pursuing either Chinese or American predominance will put the region at greater risk. The most stable and preferable outcome would involve major changes to volatile regional hotspots, whereas a more modest vision would be more feasible albeit less stable.
crease its economic and military capabilities vis-à-vis the United States and its allies. Moreover, Washington and Beijing handle volatile regional issues very differently, and their respective offense-oriented escalatory military doctrines are likely to persist under existing conditions, increasing the likelihood of severe crises. Key U.S. allies will probably remain unwilling and unable to compensate for America’s relative decline. L
ast year, China and the EU celebrated forty years of diplomatic relations. The EU’s leading foreign policy official, Federica Mogherini, visited Beijing for the first time and advocated greater EU engagement in Asia. Chinese President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, traveled to the UK China will almost certainly and later hosted state visits manage to significantly in- from Germany and France.
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
/26
25
Much of this diplomatic activity focused on upgrading cooperation between China and Europe on investment and trade as a way to deepen their strategic partnership.
Yet core principles of Chinese diplomacy have long been shaped by traditional Chinese cultural concepts that remain relevant today. As President Xi charts China’s foreign policy course in the years ahead, eleChina’s Belt and Road initiative ments of continuity and change aims to extend infrastructure will continue to coexist. and connectivity across Eurasia from the Asia-Pacific to Europe. The increasing aspirations of It includes the overland Silk the economic giant China are Road Economic Belt across likely to have lasting impact on Central Asia and the Twenty- the regional security and ecoFirst-Century Maritime Silk nomic development of the Road, which will span South- South Asian states. Coupled east Asia. Since Chinese Presi- with the Chinese approach of dent Xi Jinping announced “non-intervention in internal these initiatives in 2013, they matters” the idea of inclusive have been actively discussed development under the Chinese both within China and abroad. “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) However, so far few infrastruc- has laid the foundation for inture projects have been en- frastructural and human develacted and the proposal remains opment in the region. The at an early stage. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one of the flagCivil and proxy wars have ship projects of the BRI, under destabilized Syria, Libya, and which China is making large Yemen, and Egypt is experienc- overseas investments in Paking a domestic insurgency. Al- istan. China and Pakistan have though instability in the Middle often repeated their stances East remains widespread, that the CPEC is an economic China continues to deepen its corridor and a major stabilizing ties in the region. In January factor in the volatile and uncer2016, Xi Jinping embarked on tain regional security paradigm his first state visit to the Middle of South Asia. East as president of China, just days after Beijing released its “Donald Trump elected as the first-ever policy paper on the re- US president and his America gion. First foreign policy mantle, and Xi Jinping emerging from the President Xi Jinping appears to newly-ended 19th National have ushered in a more as- Congress of Communist Party sertive, proactive foreign policy of China even more powerful approach than that of his pred- and vowing to rejuvenate his ecessors—as high-profile initia- country, Sino-US relations had tives like the Belt and Road entered a period of turbulence make clear. and uncertainty…no-apology
preachers of China Dream and America First, both Xi and Trump vowed to see their policies and agendas set in motion under their watch…How these two different visions with heavy dose of nationalist flavours can proceed smoothly against each other, especially at the backdrop of an emerging power transition, is an open question… However, for all the challenges and alarms, there’s still room for optimism of the future of China-US relations.
THE BRIDGE
A Great Khan in Italy by Juan Martin Gonzlez Cabañas
which it was launched, the volume of capital involved and its ambitious scope make them incomparable. For centuries, the different paths of the ancient Silk Road connected the three continents. Asia was the most important geopolitical scenario in the world, and China was its main actor, the Chinese felt it, the name of their nation Strategic move that promises “Zhongguo” (center kingdom) to revive the epoch of apogee reflects it. of the exchanges between Asia, Europe and even Africa, pat- History never repeats itself the terns happened around seven same, but sometimes it centuries ago. It is considered rhymes. In Beijing the use of the Chinese Marshall Plan for the past, the memory of that the 21st century, but the char- golden age, can serve as a acteristics of the context in guide to project the future: On March 23, Mandarin Xi and the government led by Giuseppe Conte signed a memorandum that sealed the entry into Italy, in the heart of Western Europe, to the mega geostrategic project of the New Silk Road / OBOR (One Belt /One Road) proposed and promoted by Beijing.
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
/28
27
A little more than seven centuries have passed since the Venetian Marco Polo began his trip to the China of Kublai Khan and was surprised by its wonders, at that time India and China far exceeded in wealth, population, power and technology to any State European.
During the Peak of Power of the Ming Dynasty In the fifteenth century, Admiral Zeng undertook his expeditions to Africa and the Pacific and Indian Ocean, on board in the most imposing fleet in the world at the time.
Then for various reasons, sometimes external, such as failed military expeditions (such as that of Japan, under Kublai Khan) the constant threat of invasions, other internal issues, such as the tendency towards isolation, stopped China’s advance towards new frontiers and horizons. Then the power vacuum would be filled by Europeans who in the following centuries created an Atlantic world order.
The Chinese emperor belonged to the Yuan dynasty, of Mongol origin, of the same lineage of Genghis Khan, but the invaders were assimilated by the culture of their subjects, a lesson in history, which some should had consider when they thought that China would be Westernized, other historical analogies are also curious, the map of the Mongol empire in its heyday is very similar to the map of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), the axis of the Finally the industrial revolution Russian / Chinese and Eurasian would leave Asia relegated, cooperation. which would make it another chessboard where the EuroThat nowadays new poles of pean powers disputed their inthe international chessboard terests. Decades of humiliation resurface as countries that are came; China would suffer the home to historical empires like Opium Wars. But in the 21st Turkey, Iran, India, China and century we are witnessing a Russia, as heirs of that legacy, true rebirth and resurgence of reminds us of the power of his- Asia. tory to trace the present and the future . Today new winds are blowing in the world… There will always be the question in the form of Uchronia, to The triumph in the elections of think that it would had hap- Donald Trump in 2016 marked pened with a more consoli- the breakdown of an internadated China in the time as the tional order; one of the aspects main Asian power and then of this new paradigm was the worldwide in the past, with even strict definition of China as a greater power and influence strategic competitor of the USA. than it had.
But the Chinese forecast has prepared them and they feel that this is their time now. Different actions allow us to conclude that the diplomacy of “low profile and wait for the moment” has ended. In some areas, they already surpass the USA.
On a map with tectonic plates that are rearranged, with a US that seeks to reconfigure and make revisionism of the same international order that the same forge, and a European Union in a “geopolitical limbo” without a unified external strategy, without defining whether it will be a player or a chessboard. In this context, opportunities arise, a geopolitical market for a large number of countries that seek new forms of association and other types of patterns in international relations, as well as new margins arise for China to take advantage of the momentum to consolidate its superpower cate gory.
It has been more than seven centuries since Marco Polo’s trips to China, but now it is the heirs of Kublai Khan who have arrived in Europe.
THE BRIDGE
Italy escapes the ‘western propaganda trap’ by Carter Chapwanya and Arun Upadhyaya
The Trump administration – unlike other US administrations – has clearly taken the ‘with us or against us’ stance particularly when it comes to their effort of taming China’s growth by denigrating the Belt and Road Initiative. As a result of this, the BRI had fallen victim to lots of criticisms from the West and other Trump sympathizers.
In true “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth” fashion, western media platforms have constantly been awash with flawed, biased and often derogatory characterisations of the multi-trillion dollar project with an agenda of deterring its progress. US vice president, Mike Pence is on record for calling the BRI a product of China’s ‘debt diplomacy.’ Last month, a White House spokesperson called it
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
‘China’s Infrastructure Vanity Project’ and this has made Washington’s position clear.
The recent signing of Italy to the BRI gravy train has predictably sent proverbial shivers down the spine of Washington as the White House and other US commentators have already started throwing spanners into the recent development.
The National Security Council of the United States held no punches in a scathing tweet against Italy’s decision to join the BRI.
“Italy is a major global economy and a great investment destination. Endorsing BRI lends legitimacy to China’s predatory approach to investment and will bring no benefits to the Italian people,” the tweet reads.
29
/30
Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State last week lamented Italy’s move to join the BRI claiming that the people of the countries that join BRI would be the ultimate losers.
Analysts however say, without better proposals, both the US and Brussels cannot stop countries that engage China for their own economic development. The BRI offers literal pathways for economic cooperation that It is clear that US policy makers benefit China and the partnerare now grasping at straws in ing countries in a ‘win-win’ type their futile attempts of stalling of arrangement. China’s growth because Italy and the Italian people stand to China’s Foreign Ministry spokes economically benefit commen- person, Lu Kang rightfully surately if not more. Italy is set called the negative remarks by to get better access to Chinese a White House official ‘ridicumarkets, investments in critical lous’ noting that Italy is a develsectors such as banking, natu- oped country that is fully ral gas, agriculture, steel and a capable of making its own polbalancing of the €16 billion icy decisions. ($18 billion) trade deficit. Wang Chao, China’s Vice-minisItalyis not only the largest EU ter of foreign affairs also spoke member but also the first Group out against the western ‘sky is of Seven country to join the BRI. falling’ rhetoric saying that Some analysts have applauded China had neither the intention the recent development and of dividing the European Union highlighted that Italy joining BRI nor the capability of doing so. means a lot for the world and it is a testimony of China’s suc- Last week Luxembourg also decess in major power diplomacy. nounced the ‘debt trap’ allegations as it signed on to become Brussels has also been rattled the fifteenth European Union by Italy’s decision to join the member to join BRI. It appears Chinese initiative. European the western propaganda maUnion commissioner, Günther chine is failing to deter counOettinger has floated the idea tries from making smart of an EU veto over future Chi- decisions that promote their renese deals in Europe in order to spective sovereign national inprotect the continent from terests. growing Chinese influence. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas also aired some reservations over Italy’s infrastructure deal with China suggesting that Italy – the third largest economy in the Eurozone –could eventually become dependent on China. THE BRIDGE
Gwadar: A Gateway by Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan Gwadar means “Air Passage or Gateway” in the local language, it is the most important city under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It is natural deep sea-port, with its strategic location. It situated only 120 KM from the Iranian border, and 170 KM from Chahbahar port in Iran, opposite of Oman in the Arabian Sea. It is just at the entrance of Straight of Hurmuz. One of the busiest trade route – Oil and Gas rich Middle-East exporting Energy to rest of world and importing almost everything from the rest of the world through this route. Although the history of Gwadar goes back to the Bronze Age, its importance was highlighted after the launch of CPEC.
Several projects were initiated under CPEC in 2015 but some of the high significance are on top priority and in execution at the fast pace. Deep sea-port is
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
the mega project and pivotal for CPEC, which partially completed and operational already. However, develop to full capacity, it will take some time while keeping it operational simultaneously. Gwadar Eastbay Expressway, which is 19 km, connecting Gwadar Port to Mehran Coastal Highway 60%. Gwadar Free Zone is also completed almost half and work is in satisfactory progress. Gwadar Smart Port City Master Plan is at the final stage of its completion. Expansion of Multipurpose Terminal including Breakwater and Dredging is under feasibility stage. ChinaPakistan Faqeer Primary School Project is completed already and in the operational stage. Few projects by Chinese donation are also in various stage, which includes, Hospital, Vocational School, Fresh Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment, etc.
/32
31
Prime Minister Imran Khan, has visited Gwadar and a big momentum of developments of Gwadar is visible. He has attended the Ground Breaking Ceremony of Gwadar New International Airport. The Airport is a gift from the Chinese Government and will be constructed by the Chinese company within 5 years. It will be state of the art International airport and one of the most modern and largest airports in this whole region. Up to Airbus 380 will be able to land in this airport. It will facilitate to connect the whole world to Gwadar. It is really a major breakthrough for the development Gwadar into a major city of the world in the future.
activities have been generated and more are in pipeline. This was the 2nd annual expo and it has attracted more people than the 1st expo held in last year. It He also announced to connect is expected that the 3rd expo the city with the national grid to planned to be held in March ensure a sufficient supply of 2020 will gain more momentum. electricity. He promised that any development in Gwadar will be peoplefocused and local residents will get priority.
There was a two-day International Expo at Gwadar on 28-29 March 2019, which was attended by more than a hundred companies from China and Pakistan. This year the expo was focused on Henan Province and most of the Chinese companies participated were from Henan. It is learned that every year, such expo will be focused on one of the provinces in China. However, there were few companies from other provinces too. It covers a wide range of products from Shipbuilding, construction machinery to auto-parts and packaging material, etc. There were also Pakistan companies, mostly of real-estate, and land development, but also few on sea-food and services sector.
PM Imran Khan also announced to connect Gwadar with Quetta the capital of Baluchistan province by road and by railway. This will be a major achievement in improving the connectivity of Gwadar with the other parts of the country. Quetta-Zoob Motorway is also initiated as a big step toward long-demanded completion of Western Route. This expo has provided an excellent platform for Pakistani PM has also addressed the is- and Chinese entrepreneurs to sues of local fishermen for their understand each other and delivelihood and ensured them for velop business relations. I am pretty sure, some economic health facilities.
At this occasion, “Gwadar Pro” was launched, which is under “China Economic Daily”. It is aimed to provide updated media coverage of Gwadar.
It is obviously visible that Gwadar Dream is going to be realized at a fast pace. The fruits of which will be enjoyed by the people of Pakistan, people of region and especially the people of Gwadar. Gwadar will be hub of commercial activities and will change the global trade routes and trends. It will guarantee the prosperity of central Asia, South Asia, Eurasia, Middle-east and Africa. Gwadar is a message of “Peace, Harmony, Stability, Development and Prosperity”
THE BRIDGE
The nature of contemporary Sino-Pakistani relations by Syeda Dhanak Hashmi
China has played a crucial role in maintaining regional peace and security by upholding its concept of an inclusive, cooperative and sustainable security. This has clarified the country’s stance on issues of regional concern, contributing to longterm stability and development in Asia, which includes the promotion of common development, building of partnerships, improvement of existing multilateral frameworks, rule-setting, military exchanges and proper settlement of differences.
To ensure long-term stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific, China has put forward a number of proposals that have been highly valued by the international community. To ensure common development is the fundamental guarantee of peace and stability, and the ‘master key’ to solving security problems. The China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative is not
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
only a path of development but also a path of peace, as it will not only bring opportunities to the economic development of regional countries, but also provide ideas and solutions for them to solve security problems. The central theme behind the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is to open new economic and trade avenues that would lead to the overall social and economic prosperity of the region.
The fruit of this economic cooperation is a market far larger in scope than the one that exists because of economic conflict in the region. The envisaged economic route from Gwadar to Kashgar can serve as an alternative and economically shorter sea route instead of the far longer straits of Malacca. This has always been the most compelling reason for multilateral and regional cooperation.
33
Two of the most reputable theories that support the idea of regional stability, regional integration and strategic cooperation can be stated in terms of ‘economic opportunity cost hypotheses and ‘neo-functionalism’.
The first theory assumes that trade and economic interdependence increases stakes amongst economically integrated nations and thereby reduces chances of conflicts erupting. Whereas the proponents of neo-functionalism are of the view that cooperation in one area produces cooperation in other areas. CPEC will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan in the north which will connect
Kashgar in China’s western province of Xinjiang. Almost 80% of China’s oil is currently transported through the Strait of Malacca to Shanghai. The calculated distance is almost 16,000km and takes two to three months, with Gwadar becoming operational, the distance would be reduced to less than 5,000km. When fully operational Gwadar will promote not only the economic development of Pakistan but also serve as a gateway to the Central Asian countries. Keeping in view the regional stability, Pakistan and India are both important neighbours for China which wants to promote trade with its neighbours.
/34
Pakistan is a victim of terrorism and that all countries were responsible for contributing towards the eradication of terrorism. But the brutalities of the Indian army in Indian-held Kashmir cannot be ignored here. Pivot to Asia: Status quo or a challengerpower ?
Hence, regional integration is not possible as long as regional trade is sacrificed for so-called security. Pakistan needs to follow the Chinese model whose trade with India had crossed over $100 billion despite serious political issues between them.
THE BRIDGE
Some elements also fear that if there is peace in the region, it will challenge their predominance in the business of the state. Furthermore, the dimension of CPEC that is ignored is its potential to defeat terrorism in the region by raising and improving socio-economic conditions of the people. The Sri Lankan polity, at first divided over the role of China in the region, has come to recognize that the Belt Road Initiative approach fits well with Colombo’s goals of rebuilding a war-torn economy through enhanced connectivity. China also calls for improving regional security architecture to lay a solid foundation for enduring peace and stability in the region, and also calls on countries to properly handle differences and disputes to maintain the peaceful and stable environment in the region.
spite the cheapness of land, Pakistan is lagging behind in connectivity which increases the trade cost. However, under the umbrella of CPEC the cost would be minimised and export incentives increased. Pakistan expects 4% of global trade. The kind of toll tax, rental fees that Pakistan will gain is roughly $6 billion to $8 billion by 2020.
A strategic and economic balance of power in the region would ensure peaceful resolution of conflicts but also enhance strategic stability leading to a win-win situation. Or by words of professor Anis H. Bajrektarevic: “Asia has to answer itself whether the newest concepts – such as the OBOR/ CPEC vs. Indo-Pacific oceanic triangling – are complementary to its development or the heartland-rimland sort of dangerous confrontation. Asia needs a true multilateralism, not a In the context of Pakistan, hostage situation of getting CPEC is often termed a game caught in a cross-fire.” changer for the weak economy of Pakistan. The corridor proj- The CPEC itself with its focus ect carries vital significance as on Gwadar, has also given imit promises to elevate Islam- petus to maritime cooperation abad’s economic growth. Un- between China and Pakistan, like US aid, the Chinese aid to and beyond. Both states wish Pakistan has offered infrastruc- to enhance bilateral cooperature and energy projects that tion in the fields of maritime sewould serve as a means to im- curity, search and rescue, and prove Pakistan’s economy. De- the blue water economy. Thus,
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
it would not be wrong to say that CPEC has the potential of accruing strategic cooperation. This approach serves as strategic enabler in a rapidly transforming world order. It is therefore the need of time to move from archaic geopolitical vendetta of 19th and 20th centuries to interstate strategic play in the 21st century.
The pursuit of a state’s national interest in the international arena constitutes its foreign policy. A successful foreign policy should employ a balance of economic, diplomatic, and military tools. It is the national interest that shapes the possibilities of state to behave collectively. Through a balanced foreign policy approach, the South Asian region can achieve its mega development projects and establish into a peaceful integrated region. Confidence-building measures between regional players is the first step in this direction to uplift the socioeconomic standards of the people of this region.
35
/36
Belt and Road Forum Synthesized China Pakistan Relations by S.H Bilal On 25 to 27 April 2019 China hosted the 2nd Belt and Road Forum for Intercontinental Cooperation (BRF) in Beijing. During this 2nd BRF, national governments, local authorities and enterprises reached a series of cooperation agreements, important measures and practical results with this more than 5,000 high-level delegates from over 150 countries attended the 2nd BRI Forum, including 37 heads of state and government, and representatives of international organizations.
list of deliverables of the second BRF. The list includes 283 concrete results in six categories, namely, initiatives proposed or launched by the Chinese side, bilateral and multilateral documents signed during or immediately before the second BRF, multilateral cooperation mechanisms under the BRF framework, investment projects and project lists, ďŹ nancing projects, and projects by local authorities and enterprises.
Beijing and Islamabad also sign space exploration agreement, As the host country, China has AS newly signed space exploput together the most represen- ration agreement between tative outcomes, and formed a China and Pakistan on manned THE BRIDGE
space missions manifests their more profound cooperation on the peaceful use of outer Space. The agreement, marking that cooperation between the two neighbours in space exploration has entered a new phase, China Economic Net reported, quoting a statement issued by the China National Space Administration (CNSA).
The agreement inked during the recent visit of Prime Minister Imran Khan will serve as a highlevel foundation for cooperation in space science and exploration. Both nations will conduct scientific and technological experiments, astronaut training, along with manned space applications and achieve ment transformation.
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
The CNSA and the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission will establish a China-Pakistan space committee chaired by top officials from both sides to address future collaborative issues.
Since Pakistan is China's allweather friend, China is willing to provide the know-how to foster Pakistan's technological development on the use of outer space, Lan Jianxue, said an associate research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies."China-Pakistan space cooperation will help Pakistan in terms of satellite monitoring of natural disasters and agricultural production, land and resources surveying, and waste
handling in a microgravity environment,” China will also benefit from the cooperation, including for commercial applications of space technology, investment security and counterterrorism.
Along with this The Chinese Academy of Sciences launched the Silk Road Environment Program, under which scientists from countries along the Belt and Road study the pathways and scientific solutions of green Silk Road development and Pakistan is the key member of this Forum. Adding to that The Belt and Road Publishing Cooperation was cofounded by China and inter national publishers, academic institutions and professional
/38
37
African Seismological Commission, jointly established theWorking Mechanism for the Belt and Road Earthquake Risk Reduction Cooperation. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China and the Ministry of National Food Security and Research of Pakistan jointly released the Statement of Intent for Cooperation on Promoting Specification-setting for Pesticide Quality under the Belt and Road Initiative.
associations of relevant countries and regions. The Belt and Road Initiative Documentary Consortium was jointly founded by China and relevant countries including Pakistan. The Belt and Road News Network was jointly developed by the People’s Daily and media organizations from relevant countries.
The International Communication Award on the Belt and Road was launched. Furthermore, The China Earthquake Administration, together with its counterparts from 13 countries and relevant international organizations including Armenia, Mongolia, Russia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, the Asian Seismological Commission and the
The Ministry of Science and Technology of China announced the Belt and Road talents exchange program, sup porting 5,000 talents from China and BRI partner countries in innovation exchange and cooperation in the next five years. Beijing will initiate the experience sharing program for Belt and Road partner countries, inviting 10,000 representatives to China from these countries in the next five years, including those from political parties, political organizations, think tanks and social organizations, as well as senior political figures and scholars.
tion craft, were both lifted into space by China's Long March2C carrier rocket. The current agreement signifies that their cooperation is not limited to infrastructure and resources, it also concerns technology and innovation. List of China-Pak Agreements at BRF
1.CPFTA-II 2.Rashakai SEZ Concession Agreement 3.Declaration of Completion of Preliminary Design Phase-I on Up gradation of ML1 4.China-Pakistan Economic & Technological Cooperation Agreement 5.MOU on CPEC Social Economic Cooperation 6.The Red Cross Society of China continues with the implementation of the China-Pakistan First Aid Corridor Program in Pakistan. 7.The Chinese government signed transport cooperation documents with the government of Pakistan
The Chinese government continues to implement the “Silk Road” Chinese Government Scholarship Program and increases scholarships for candidates pursuing master’s and PhD degrees at Chinese institutes of higher learning. In 2018, China sent two Pakistan satellites into orbit. The PRSS1, Pakistan's first optical remote sensing satellite, and the PakTES-1A, a smaller observa-
THE BRIDGE
THE SOCIETY THAT SEPARATES ITS SCHOLARS FROM
ITS WARRIORS
WILL HAVE
ITS THINKING DONE BY COWARDS
AND ITS FIGHTING
BY FOOLS THUCYDIDES
moderndiplomacy moderndiplomacy.eu
39
/40
Balochistan: A powder keg at a geopolitical crossroads by Dr. James M. Dorsey
“The historical lack of investment in basic economic and social infrastructure in the province – except for extraction of natural gas for use in other provinces – has resulted in a low level of economic activity, implying a narrow tax base and limited fiscal resources to invest in development,” said Local residents are hardly economist Kaiser Bengali in a awaiting with baited breath recently published study. Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan’s visit this week for the Beyond looking at Balochistan Gwadar Expo 2019 and ground as a source of resource wealth, breaking of several infrastruc- successive governments in Isture and development projects, lamabad alongside the powerincluding an international air- ful military have viewed the predominantly port, a power plant, a vocational province training institute and a hospital. through the lens of security and law enforcement driven by doAgainst the backdrop of a his- mestic and geopolitical contory of neglect and underdevel- cerns. Kech, Balochistan’s opment, resource-rich Balochi second most populous region stan struggles with a failing known to be the province’s inhealth and education system, tellectual heartland from which drought, and lack of basic infra- many of its most prominent politicians, scholars, structure.
Balochistan should be oozing with optimism as Chinese and Saudi investment pours into the troubled Pakistani province. It is not. Instead, Balochistan, a key node in China’s Belt and Road initiative that borders Iran, is gripped by anger, fear and uncertainty.
THE BRIDGE
bureaucrats, poets, and writers hail, is a case in point. Access to the internet and 3 and 4G mobile services was cut off in Kech two years ago for security reasons. It has yet to be re-established. Theoretically, all of that could change with massive Chinese and Saudi investment as well as Balochistan’s increased geopolitical significance given that it borders on Iran’s equally troubled Sistan and Baluchistan province.
Balochistan’s Chinese-supported port of Gwadar takes on added importance as Iran looks to its Indian-backed port of Chabahar, a mere 70 kilometres
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
up the coast of the Arabian Sea, and energy driven Belt and as a way to blunt the impact of Road initiative. crippling US sanctions. For its part, Saudi Arabia is The sanctions were imposed looking to pump more than last year after the Trump ad- US$10 billion into the building ministration withdrew from the of a refinery in Gwadar and the 2015 international agreement development of a gold and that curbed Iran’s nuclear pro- copper mine on the Iranian borgram. Chabahar is the only Iran- der. The problem is that the ian port exempted from the lack of a trickle-down effect has so far served to fuel anger sanctions in a nod to India. rather than spark a sense of opChina has invested in recent timism among local Baloch. years an estimated US$19 bil- The Baloch have seen jobs lion in Gwadar as well as roads being handed out to workers and other infrastructure in from other parts of Pakistan as Balochistan as part of the well as China, parts of Gwadar China Pakistan Economic Cor- being developed into a no-go ridor (CPEC). China and Pak- zone for locals, and fishermen istan envision CPEC as a crown being banned from their tradijewel of Beijing’s infrastructure- tional fishing ponds.
/42
41
In addition, predictions that Balochistan’s indigenous population of 70,000 will be dwarfed by an estimated two million immigrants from other parts of Pakistan as well as China have reinforced a prevailing sense of uncertainty.
Some of that anger and uncertainty has been channelled into anti-Chinese and anti-Pakistani nationalist sentiment with intermittent attacks on Chinese targets as well as militant religious assaults on Pakistani military, law enforcement and judicial outposts.
Similarly, Balochistan’s strategic geopolitical position is as much an asset as it is a problem. The Saudi investment coupled with US and Saudi determination to force Iran to change its regional policies, if not its regime, have made the province alongside its equally underdeveloped neighbouring Iranian counterpart potential battlefields.
a finger to the other. In the media and among policy wonks, the finger pointing often amounts to the kettle calling the pot black. “Fact (is) that there is a problem in Sistan-o-Balochistan where people are struggling for their political rights in their own province. It is a common grudge amongst the Baloch population in the Iranian Balochistan that they are underrepresented in the government, bureaucracy and armed forces… Sectarian divide is another major source of friction in the province where overwhelming majority of Baloch are Sunnis… Poverty amongst the Baloch is the highest if compared to rest of the country,” said former Pakistani ambassador Assif Durrani who was last posted in Tehran.
He will have to ensure equitable economic and social policies and address in deed both immediate concerns and existential fears. He will also have to manage an explosive geopolitical environment despite increasing economic and financial dependence on key external players. That could prove to be a tall order.
Mr. Durrani’s comments were equally applicable to the Baloch province of his own country.
Returning from a recent visit to Balochistan, Pakistani policy analyst Muhammad Amir Rana described “an environment of fear; the local journalists cannot report much about residents’ issues, not even water supply problems.”
Cross border attacks and suicide bombings have added to uncertainty fuelled by statements coming out of Washington and Riyadh as well as reports of funds from Saudi Arabia flowing into militant antiShiite, anti-Iranian madrassas Mr. Rana expressed hope that or religious seminaries that dot Mr. Khan, the prime minister, the Pakistani-Iranian border. would “help locals retreat from the jaws of uncertainty and The attacks together with the fear.” Saudi investment and evolving US and Saudi strategy has put To do that, Mr. Khan will have to strains on Pakistani-Iranian re- do more that talk the walk and lations with each side pointing inaugurate projects. THE BRIDGE
Countering Terrorism and the dawn of CPEC by Sabah Aslam China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is much more than just a development deal between two states; it is to a large extent a mega-project which encompasses many foyers of economy, trade and politics as well as strategy between two highly important states within Asia. It incorporates developing a network of roads, pipelines, and railways which connects Balochistan province in Pakistan with Xinjiang in China.
It has heralded a cross country exchange of nationals who are working day and night to make this mega-project a successful one. At present, there is an estimate of around 20,000 Chinese nationals working across Pakistan, and this means that around 70,000 short-term visit visas are being issued each year.
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
But with all this being said, it needs to be understood that the current state of terrorism is threatening to the entire Endeavour and this needs to be catered to. There are countless foreign forces which are at work to derail this mega-project and Pakistan is understandably doing its part, but it also opens susceptibility for China.
There is also a propaganda being floated around by some hostile forces which are against CPEC and this revolves around the perspicacity of China being a so called “future colonizing power” as well as the issue of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. This can add to some inside forces operational in making CPEC more vulnerable and sensitive. Furthermore, there is a threat of terrorism which is being emanated within
43
the Baloch Insurgents as well as the added foreign pressure of other Islamist terrorist groups particularly the Islamic State’s (ISIS) local affiliates in the country. The terror attacks which rocked Balochistan in December 2018 and January 2019 are testimonies of this.
To begin with it must be cleared that currently the Baloch insurgent groups have exhibited signs of antagonism toward the Chinese presence in Pakistan. This province has a dire sense of dearth paralleled with other provinces and because of this under-development and political instability there is a lack of trust within Baloch people towards the Federal governments.
laborers, and tourists, are legitimate targets for attacks. Furthermore, in 2018 the BLA (Baloch Liberation Army) targeted a bus transporting Chinese engineers in the Dalbandin district in a suicide bombing.
/44
The increasing Chinese presence in Pakistani provinces gives these networks an opening to gain conspicuousness and coverage by targeting foreign nationals and business professionals which adds to their importance as well. With the Islamic State’s territorial defeat in Iraq and Syria, a possible shift toward Afghanistan and Pakistan as a safe-haven for operations, and portrayal of itself as a group that is as strong now as it was back in 2014.
Moreover the Islamic State’s (IS) local branch for the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), has also targeted Chinese presence in Pakistan. The IS has labelled China an “oppressor of Muslims simi- China has strategic geostratelar to Israel, India, and the U.S.” gic interests in Pakistan which in the past. will be indomitable to avert
Adding the Chinese presence in this atmosphere has only proven to further this lack of trust and probable resentment. The idea of exploitation of local resources by the Chinese is a coming propaganda which has already surfaced and will be pushed by some entities which do not wish for CPEC to succeed. A total of six Baloch separatist groups have publicised displeasure toward the Chinese presence, which is impaired by the government’s inability to address Baloch grievances.
In the year 2018, Allah Nazar Baloch who is the commander of the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) addressed a letter to the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, stating that Chinese nationals, including fishermen, THE BRIDGE
CPEC from failing or its interests being targeted by terrorist and separatist groups. China has no doubt become more inclined to strengthen its counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan since 2015, the most recent example of which is the joint training exercise conducted in Punjab province in December 2018. Previously China has patented the TTP as a serious and well-engineered menace to peace and stability within Pakistan which adversely impacts the Chinese position in the state after the group threatened to cut off access to the Karakoram Highway.
These proclamations were broadened in 2016, when an Indian national Kulbhushan Jadhav, was arrested and indicted by Pakistan of being a spy.
These loopholes present in security can add up to the overall stagnation and possible blacking out of the $62 billion dollar deal between two prominent states. If this deal goes through, Balochistan will be resuscitated and has the potential to turn into a developing province for the future. Of course Pakistan and its policy makers are not completely phased out as there is an active unit of forces which are taking care of the impeding issue at The combativeness in Balochi hand. stan province is largely advocated to be a product of the The collaboration between Pakproxy war between India and istan and China has enhanced Pakistan. Pakistan has by and and this vulnerability does not again claimed that Indian intel- need to be worried about much ligence is tangled in Balochis- in the context of the larger tan and has been capitalising strategic cooperation. CPEC is on the militancy in the province. prone to terrorism but it is also
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
prone to safeguarding the project, the intensity of which far exceeds the threats. Furthermore, the Pakistan-China cooperative partnership to counterterrorism is need of time, especially when the BRI is transforming the world from geo-political to geo-economic phase. Mutual trust, joint efforts, and regional cooperation is the key to completely eliminate the scourge of terrorism from the face of earth.
Leaders Discuss Role of Tourism in Asia and Pacific’s Development Future Tourism has significant potential to contribute to Asia and the Pacific’s long-term growth prospects through infrastructure development and job creation. But governments should work to ensure the industry grows in a socially and environmentally sustainable way, according to participants at a high-level Asian Development Bank (ADB) seminar.
The Governors’ Seminar, titled “The Role of Tourism for Sustainable Development,” at the 52nd Annual Meeting of ADB’s Board of Governors in Nadi, Fiji, featured as panelists Japan Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Mr. Taro Aso; Indonesia Finance Minister Ms. Sri Mulyani Indrawati; Fiji Attorney-General and Minister for Economy, Civil Service, and
Communications Mr. Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum; Italy’s DirectorGeneral for International Financial Relations, Ministry of Economy and Finance Ms. Gelsomina Vigliotti; and ADB President Mr. Takehiko Nakao.
In 2018, 343 million international tourist arrivals and $390 billion in international tourist spending went to Asia and the Pacific. International visitors to Asia have risen by 65% between 2010 and 2018 with key Asian destinations being the People’s Republic of China; Thailand; Japan; Hong Kong, China; and Malaysia. Asian tourists are also an increasing driver of global tourism with higher incomes and a rapidly growing middle class seeking experiences abroad. THE BRIDGE
Globally, international tourist arrivals are expected to reach 2.44 billion by 2030, a 75% increase over 2018, with Asia and the Pacific projected to account for a third of this number. Tourism plays a large role in the Asian economy. Spending on hotels and airline tickets was $92 billion in 2018 with an estimated 78 million new jobs created. The indirect impact such as through tourism-related investment on new hotels or airplane purchases was larger at $2.94 trillion, creating an estimated 180 million jobs. In Fiji, tourism contributed 14% of the local economy with the indirect impacts accounting for 40% of gross domestic product.
Seminar discussions highlighted several points. Tourism should be encouraged as a key contributor to investment, employment, and tax revenues through investment in both infrastructure and people. For example, world-class airports and airport staff in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur contribute to the vitality of tourism in Thailand and Malaysia. With land being a key component of sustainable tourism, clear and effective sustainable land use regulations are needed.
Tourism creates millions of jobs, notably for women, young people, and those in remote rural areas. However, workers in tourism need the right skills and good working conditions. The Indian state of Kerala, for example, has a program that
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
has trained some 650 residents nesses to restore historical of poor communities for jobs in buildings. To protect the local hotels. Angkor Wat temple, the Cambodian government created a dedTourism can damage the envi- icated authority to better ronment which, over time, re- manage the site and maximize duces visitors and revenues. the benefit to the local commuGovernments and the tourism nity. industry can work together to avoid this. In Fiji, the govern- Last, tourism should foster mument imposes a 10% tax on tual understanding, peace, and tourism-related businesses safety among people of differwhich funds climate change ent backgrounds. Smart travel mitigation projects. practices including data sharing is one way to do this. CurSimilarly, cultural heritage rently, 16 Asian countries needs protection, which could participate in an electronic visa include controlling numbers of scheme that has increased effivisitors to monuments or creat- ciency at border controls and ing fiscal incentives for busi- boosted security.
/48
47
At the seminar, Mr. SayedKhaiyum stressed the importance of ensuring resilience to both natural hazards and the longer-term issue of climate change. “The infrastructure that goes to the hotels—the electricity cables, the water, the sewers, etc.—the government needs to build resilience on that. The other aspect of the environment and climate change is to do with the oceans … all countries need to make a consolidated effort in respect of climate change.”
He also pointed to the need to ensure that as much of the value of the tourist spending as
possible is retained within the She also stressed the imporhost country by using local tance of governance and a policy center that defines and products and services. implements a strategy. Ms. Indrawati addressed the issue of ensuring that local cul- “Asia and the Pacific has some ture and heritage are protected of the world’s most beautiful as tourist destinations attract natural landscapes and unique visitors from other countries cultural monuments,” Mr. with different attitudes and Nakao said. “As tourism continmores. “This is exactly always ues to expand rapidly, it will be the tradeoff between, on the important to pursue sustainone hand, to be a global player, able tourism that protects the in global supply chains, and environment such as forests how you are going to maintain and coral reefs, preserves local the authenticity as well as the cultures, and benefits local participation of your locals,” communities.” she said. Work to develop local skills to ensure tourism-in- ADB has supported the develspired jobs are high quality is opment of sustainable tourism in the region through financing also key. for infrastructure, regional conPanelists raised the importance nectivity, and environmental of good infrastructure to sup- protection. In the Association port tourists and, through im- of Southeast Asian Nations reproved water and wastewater gion, ADB has provided assissystems, for example, to pro- tance for transport, waste tect the environment. “There management, and skills trainshould be development of ing and planning, which have tourist infrastructure both in improved access and environquantity and quality,” said Mr. ments in secondary tourism Aso. Such infrastructure needs destinations. to be disaster-resilient so that when disasters strike, countries Elsewhere, ADB has, for examdo not lose out twice—from ple, helped protect natural lakes missing out on tourism income and local livelihoods in the Kyrand having to rebuild their infra- gyz Republic and Mongolia, supported tourism planning in structure and economies. the Federated States of MiMs. Vigliotti noted the common cronesia and Myanmar, and challenges faced by tourist des- worked to improve transport, intinations, whether in Europe or frastructure, and utilities to enAsia and the Pacific. “The chal- sure sustainable tourism in lenges for all the tourist desti- Bhutan and India. nations … are the same. You need connectivity, you need good infrastructure, and you need good maintenance.” THE BRIDGE
Chinese history comes alive in Nanjing
If you visit Nanjing, don’t just see the sights like a tourist. Walk in footsteps of the past with these thought-provoking, immersive experiences designed to bring Nanjing’s hisNanjing served as the capital tory and culture to life. city of 10 dynasties and regimes over more than 1,800 Imperial Examination years and is home to some of Experience China’s most significant historical attractions, including the Xi- Do you have what it takes to be aoling Tomb of the Ming a top scholar? When you take Dynasty, Dr. Sun Yat-sen’s Mau- part in the Imperial Examinasoleum, the Presidential Palace tion Experience at Nanjing’s and the City Wall, which dates Jiangnan Imperial Examination Hall Museum, you will step into back more than 600 years. the shoes of an ancient ChiHere, past dynasties are alive nese civil servant and find out. and well, entwined with glitter- Beginning in the Han Dynasty ing modern skyscrapers. The (206 B.C. to 220 A.D.), citizens misty Purple Mountain looms in wishing to serve in the state buthe distance and the Ningzheng reaucracy were required to Ridge forms a crescent around pass a rigorous government-isthis city in the heart of the sued examination. Yangtze River delta. In southern China, the ancient capital city of Nanjing beckons travelers who long to immerse themselves in Chinese history and culture.
MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
/50
49
However, the test didn’t involve job skills. Instead, it assessed candidates’ knowledge of classic literature and literary style. Successful candidates were generalists who shared a common language and culture, which helped to unify the empire and shape the fabric of China’s intellectual, cultural and political life.
During the three-hour Imperial Examination Experience, you’ll dress in traditional attire and learn to create Chinese calligraphy with a brush pen and make thread-bound books to take home as a souvenir. You will walk away having experienced a glimpse of what ancient Chinese life was really like. Chinese Tea Culture Experience
Few things are as closely associated with China as tea. Its long history as an indispensable part of daily life runs like a silk thread through everything from poetry to painting to calligraphy to medicine. Travelers seeking a deep exploration of tea should be sure to book the Chinese Tea Culture Experience in Nanjing.
During this four-hour activity, you’ll see the stunning and peaceful Xuanwu Lake Park, formerly an imperial garden, before you disappear into a secret interior passageway in the Nanjing City Wall to find the hidden, speakeasy-style Lao Cui Teahouse. There, you’ll learn about the importance of tea in the
Chinese culture from a tea master, who will guide you in the ways of brewing a perfect cup of tea. Finally, you’ll learn the ancient art of Chinese woodblock printing and create your own as a keepsake of the experience. Nanjing Cloud Brocade Museum
The atmosphere in Nanjing Impressions transports you to the past with its interior designed like an ancient tea house, hundreds of hanging lanterns, wooden benches and authentic dress for the servers and chefs. The experience is vibrant, with servers shouting blessings as they pass traditional Nanjing specialties. You’ll find many duck dishes on the menu here, but make sure to try the city’s signature dish of Nanjing Salted Duck, a 400-year-old recipe that involves a complicated procedure of brining and dry rubbing that produces a rich, tender bird.
Yunjin, meaning “as beautiful as a cloud at sunset,” is silk brocade exquisitely woven in a style dating back 1,500 years. Incorporating silk, gold and silver threads, and even peacock feathers, the fabric was once reserved exclusively for the ornate dragon robes worn by em- The Chinese believe a perfect perors. meal consists of 10 dishes, so come hungry to experience this At the Nanjing Cloud Brocade love letter to Nanjing cuisine. Museum, the only one of its kind in the world, visitors can Qinhuai River Cruise watch as artisans weave the brocade in the traditional style Float lazily down Nanjing’s on self-powered looms. The Mother River on a romantic craft is so intricate that the evening cruise, and you’ll feel weavers produce only five cen- like you’ve traveled back in time timeters of yunjin per day. to the city’s roots. Distant strains of guqin, a traditional Nanjing Impressions Chinese stringed instrument, waft through the air as you Founded in 1994, Nanjing Im- cruise along the lantern-lit Qinpressions is considered one of huai Scenic Area, with its quaint the must-visit restaurants in all riverboats, footbridges and Chiof China for locals and travelers nese architecture including one alike. Named a Top 50 Chinese of the world’s best-preserved Heritage Restaurant, it aims to Barbican gates. As the ancient preserve traditional Huaiyang Chinese world floats by, you’ll cuisine, a popular and presti- understand why the Qinhuai gious style of cooking in River cruise is one of Nanjing’s Jiangsu Province that has been top attractions. designated as one of the four great traditions of Chinese cuisine. THE BRIDGE
Rediscovered
Seven City Wonders of Asia Pacific
The city is underrated.
While there is much to love about an outdoor adventure, some people may not recognize how exciting a city getaway can truly be. Not only do you get to bask in the electrifying atmosphere of a new environment, but cities also house innumerable delights to rival Mother Nature – from architectural gems to traditional and cultural experiences, there is so much to discover! These are the seven city wonders of Asia PaciďŹ c; much has been said about these urban hotspots, but not many have truly experienced their charm. Here’s how to appreciate them in their fullest glory.
Temple Street Night Market, Hong Kong
Head to one of Hong Kong’s most vibrant meeting points, Temple Street Night Market. An agglomeration of all things old and gold, you’ll find yourself surrounded by wares such as jade ornaments, tea paraphernalia and antique trinkets. Don’t miss the chance to seek authentic cultural experiences by enjoying a Cantonese opera performance or having your palm read by a fortune teller. Pro-tip: always haggle! Locals themselves tend to offer 30 to 40 percent of the original price, so that’s a good place to start. Where to stay: Hilton Garden Inn Hong Kong Mongkok
Gardens by the Bay, Singapore
Gardens by the Bay, Singapore’s pride and joy, is a futuristic park home to more than 160 species of trees and plants. Set in the middle of the city, it transports visitors into a garden paradise like no other. Walk among giants at the SuperTree Grove, which is not only an aesthetic icon but also functional – some SuperTrees serve as solar cells, while others are air exhaust receptacles! Also, be sure to check out the seasonal exhibits at the Cloud Forest and Flower Dome, two cooled conservatories that showcase flowers from all over the world.
Where to stay: Hilton Singapore
Hilton Singapore is only a stone’s throw away from Singapore’s iconic shopping district, where guests have easy access to a myriad of shopping and dining options.
Located minutes away from Mong Kok MTR station, Hilton Garden Inn provides the perfect respite after a day’s adventure.
Sydney Opera House, Sydney
One cannot possibly visit Sydney without stopping by the Sydney Opera House, an architectural marvel. Did you know that there are 1.5 million tiles across the sails on the roof? Every five years, a team of six abseilers conduct a “tap test,” where they manually tap each tile to check if it is still secure. The whole process takes them six weeks! The next time you head to this UNESCO World Heritage Site, you’ll certainly have new-found appreciation for this modern beauty.
Where to stay: Hilton Sydney
Situated in the downtown area of Sydney, Hilton Sydney is on the doorstep to all of the city’s favourite attractions such as the Sydney Opera House, Darling Harbour and Bondi Beach. Chatuchak Weekend Market, Bangkok
With more than 15,000 stalls, the Chatuchak Weekend Market is one of the world’s largest. If you are running short of time and cannot explore the entirety of this eclectic matrix, head directly to Zone #2. This area is a hipster paradise, which houses the trendiest fashion and handicrafts. Prices may be a bit more expensive, but the items are more unique and better quality. Don’t shop until you drop – keep hydrated. Coconut ice cream helps! Where to stay: Hilton Sukhumvit
Surrounded by Bangkok’s business, shopping and entertainment facilities, Hilton Sukhumvit is located a mere 5-minute walk away from Phrom Phong BTS station. MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
/54
53
The Bund, Shanghai
Travelers seeking a balance between the traditional and contemporary will find all they’re looking for at The Bund. Known as the “Museum of Buildings,” the Bund is iconic for its preservation of colonial buildings from the 1800s, in one of the world’s most metropolitan cities. One of the best places to capture panoramic views of the scenic area is the promenade – with an eco-friendly mobile charging station at the photography point, you won’t even worry about your phone running out of battery. You’ll be snapping all day! Where to stay: Waldorf Astoria Shanghai on the Bund
What better way to experience this urban wonder than by indulging in a luxury stay on the Bund itself? Waldorf Astoria Shanghai on the Bund is a prime location for guests to enjoy convenient access to top attractions, as well as to catch a spectacular view of the Pudong skyline.
THE BRIDGE
National Museum of Natural History, Manila
Manila recently introduced a latest addition to its list of urban attractions – the National Museum of Natural History. Housed in a magnificent, neo-classical building, this six-story museum houses an array of fine art and works of cultural and national heritage, alongside life science exhibits that celebrate the country’s diverse flora and fauna. Take a ride in the DNA Tree of Life, a double-helix structure that rises into a canopy for the courtyard and doubles as an elevator! There aren’t any written handouts or location maps to refer to, so keep your smartphone handy to do some in-the-moment research. Where to stay: Hilton Manila
Nestled in Manila’s biggest integrated resort, Hilton Manila offers guests with all-day entertainment; complete with a resort-style outdoor pool, fitness centre and various dining options.
Toyosu Fish Market
Move aside, Tsukiji, the Toyosu Fish Market is in town. Twice the size of its predecessor, the Toyusu Fish Market has expanded to include markets for seafood, fruits and vegetables. As part of this expansion, there are also dedicated observation decks to view the bustling live tuna auction! The lower observation deck is so coveted that you have to apply for a spot one month in advance, so be sure not to miss the deadline. Where to stay: Hilton Tokyo
On top of being in the heart of Tokyo’s shopping and entertainment district, Hilton Tokyo is also ideal for guests to experience modern Japan – with attractions like Harajuku, Ginza, Akihabara and the Tokyo Skytree just around the bend. MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
moderndiplomacy www.moderndiplomacy.eu