Figure 1-2 2:: Comparing the effects of Unification, Brexit Brexit, and Brexit SM: Overall GDP and changes in GDP per Capita
In a per capita capita--perspective, perspective, a hard Brexit would result in a relative lloss oss per capita of about Euro 5,0 5,000 00 over the period of six years, compared to the benchmark. The losses start to pile up after the first three year yearss of Brexit. In the case in which NI would stay in the SM and the CU, the result will be more or less the same in the hypothetical situation as in the benchmark scenario that assumes that NI would continue to be an integral part of the UK and there is no Brexit. Unification is by far the better option option,, with overall per capita gains, compared to the benchmark, of Euro 10,000. Per capita costs of non non-unifi unification cation – relative to a hard Brexit – wo would uld amount to about Euro 14 14,000 ,000 over the mode modeling ing period.
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