Trend Growth: Medium-Term Outlook an Analysis of Fundamentals

Page 70

CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE

FIGURE A.1

Weekly hours

25 - 34 years (24%) 100 80 60 40 20 0

2015

2025

2035

2045

2055

2045

2055

2045

2055

2045

2055

2045

2055

35 - 44 years (22%) 100

(1): Weekly hours of 1996 and composition by gender and age. Source: Central Bank of Chile based on INE and OECD.

APPENDIX II.3 ASSUMPTION OF EDUCATIONAL CONVERGENCE BY AGE GROUP

80 60 40 20

A. Group of employed between 25 and 34 years of age

0

2015

2025

2035 45 - 54 years (23%)

The estimation of the educational level to which the employed of this age group converges is carried out in two stages: first, an assumption is made for the convergence of the population between 25 and 34 years old. Second, a factor of adjustment is applied to transform this result of the population in the convergence of the employed in this age group. To estimate the convergence of education of the population between 25 and 34 years by 2050, the median of OECD countries is used as a reference in 2015 for the percentage of the population in this age group with complete college education.3 The educational level of the rest of the educational categories is calculated by weighting the participation of each educational level from CASEN 2015 by the ratio between the sum of noncollege education in the OECD in 2015 (58.0%) and the sum of non-college education from CASEN 2015 (70.1%). FIGURE A.2

100 80 60 40 20 0

2015

2025

2035

55 - 64 years (15%) 100 80 60 40 20 0

Convergence of education by age cohort (percentages of each group)

2015

2025

2035 65+ (5%)

100 80 60 40 20 0

2015

2025

2035

Source: Central Bank of Chile based on CASEN, INE and OECD. Note: Parentheses indicate the percentages of each cohort in the employed (15+) according to CASEN (2015). / The use of this number as a benchmark is due to the differences in the education systems of the OECD countries, which does not provide a correct equivalency for each education level. 3

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