Hydropower – The number one renewable energy today …. and tomorrow? Peter Stettner, Etienne Parkinson, / ANDRITZ HYDRO ESHA-Hydroaction Seminar, Brussels, 13 April 2011
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Hydropower – The number one renewable energy today …. and tomorrow?
Europe and the Renewable Energy Sources Renewable Energy Sources Worldwide Old power plants – the hidden treasures The Role of Europe’s Hydropower Industry R&D and Europe’s future workplaces
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Europe and the Renewable Energy Sources
Europe and the Renewable Energy Sources
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Meeting our “20-20-20 by 2020” goals
Source: Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 4 February 2011 www.andritz.com
EU-27 renewable electricity by source (2008)
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The Change of Generation Mix The generation mix in all European countries is essentially evolving towards renewable technologies ‌.
Source: PĂśyry Management Consulting www.andritz.com
Europe: Capacity vs. Generation ƒ Operating hours matter: tremendous growth in installed capacity does not translate in the same proportion of generated electricity (wind / solar instability, distribution, storage) ƒ Low carbon generation sources (RES, hydro, nuclear) will become the major generation source in the next decades (46 to 60% between 2008 and 2030)
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Europe: RES capacity takes off… RES capacity, other than hydro, X 60 between 1980 and 2008 This trend is expected to continue up to 2030 272 GW in 2020 370 GW in 2030
Hydro capacity will remain crucial as back-up for intermittent RES
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Electricity generating cost by technology
Source: IEA Projected Costs of Generating Electricity; 2010 Edition www.andritz.com
Renewable Energy Sources Worldwide
Renewable Energy Sources Worldwide
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World power generation capacity evolution World power generation capacity additions and investment by type in the New Policies Scenario
Source: IEA; World Energy Outlook 2010 www.andritz.com
Significant global investments in RES
ƒ In 2009, investment in renewable energy fell in the EU by 10% in the context of the economic crisis, while it increased by more by more than 50% in China (1 windmill per hour in China‌) Source: International Energy Agency www.andritz.com
The global hydropower potential 3,800 GW Potential 926 GW installed Capacity North America 18%
Africa 3%
South America 14%
China 22%
North America 12%
Africa 7%
Europe 9%
South America 15%
Asia 23%
Asia 41%
Europe 19%
China 42%
Africa 3%
161 GW under Construction
North America 5% South America 12%
Europe 2%
Asia 36%
Source: Hydropower & Dams World Atlas, 2010 www.andritz.com
China 17%
Pumped Storage and Storage Technologies
Pumped Storage - How to make Renewables green ?
load profile RES generation
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Wind power in the ENTSO-E Grid Wind power has tremendously increased it’s role in the European generation mix Ö Trend continuously growing Approx. 75 GW installed Capacity (2010) Mainly Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Denmark Typical characteristics of wind Intermitting Poor predictability Poor reliability Not controllable Backup for base load and peaks Ö Pumped Storage
ENTSO - Installed Capacities 2010 Total 962 GW
Wind; 75 GW; 8%
Other RES; 111 GW; 12%
Hydro; 196 GW; 20%
Nuclear; 134 GW; 14% Fossil; 446 GW; 46%
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The future ENTSO-E grid Supply of ≈ 800 mill. people with electrical energy (+100%) ≈ 625 GW installed capacity (+30%) Improvement of grid stability
Pumped Storage is the stabilizing factor
Inter-Area Oscillations
Pumped Storage is the stabilizing factor
ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity
Largest synchronous grid worldwide !
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Rehabilitation
Old power plants – the hidden treasures
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Potential for Rehabilitation Source: Alstom; Platts – UDI; Figures of 2009
≈ 30% of plants older than 40 years (263 GW of 887 GW) ≈ 37% of plants in Europe ≈ 43% of plants in North America
Value of rehabilitation (turbine + generator) estimated ≈ 10GW p.a. Actual ageing process results in 16GW p.a. reaching 40 years age The “10GW” rhythm is not sufficient to stop ageing of existing fleet !! 30 GW p.a. necessary To face the coming wave and To stop the ageing process and to avoid dramatic incidents
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The Benefits of Rehab Example: Hydraulic performance improvement potential
Kaplan
Pelton today
90 %
+ 5%
85 %
80 %
75 % 1900
Francis 1920
Pelton supplied in 1950
Turbine Peak Efficiency
95 %
1940
Pelton 1960
Year of Equipment Supply 19
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1980
2000
The Benefits of Rehab Plant Performance Increased plant availability, reliability and safety Boosted power generation through optimal use of available water resources Increasing revenues from peak power generation and grid regulation Reduced service / maintenance costs / risk of standstills
Costs No additional buildings & Quickly implemented Normally no environmental impact assessment requested / no or minor interference with nature Example: New 100 MW Runner (+5 % turbine output) Ö 105 MW …Investment of < 1 MEUR This is equivalent to a SHP of 5 MW !!
ÖFor each additional 20GW upgraded per year and for each 5% of increase of performance, rehabilitation programs will create 1,000MW of renewable and predictable energy www.andritz.com
The Role of Europe’s Hydropower Industry
The Role of Europe’s Hydropower Industry
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Main E&M suppliers; World Market 2008 – 2010 E&M Suppliers 2008, 2009, 2010 (estimation) Total value 20.5 bill. € Alstom (European) Others
ANDRITZ HYDRO (European) Voith Hydro (European)
+ other 52 European companies, acting as equipment suppliers including turbine, and parts of or complete W2W (“water to wire”) package !! ... civil works, penstocks, dam gates, trash racks, cranes not considered
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World Market E&M for Hydropower World Market Hydro E&M in Mio. â&#x201A;Ź
Effect of Nuclear policies after Fukushima incident ?
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
The global market has quickly recovered after the global financial crisis and has crossed the 7 bill. â&#x201A;Ź mark in 2010!
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Francis Runner Manufacturing in Europe Guri / Simon Bolivar, Venezuela Â&#x192; The hydro power plant Simon Bolivar in Guri with 10,300 MW installed capacity is one of the worldwide largest power stations of this type. Â&#x192; Each of the 5 Francis turbines has a max. output of 770 MW and belongs to the most powerful turbines worldwide.
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ru Lar nn ge er st ev Fr (R er an av en E ma cis sb uro nu tur ur pe fac bi g/ tur ne Ge ed rm in an y)
Potential of Upgrade and Modernization Ambuklao & Binga, Philippines Client: Original Data: New Data: First Commissioning:
SNAPB (SN ABOITIZ Power Benguet Inc.) 3 x 25 MW; 360 rpm 3 x 35 MW; 400 rpm 1956
Refurbishment and Upgrade of 3 Units Major features: Increase of turbine output by 40% Complete replanting of E & M equipment Implementation time 26 months
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CF do D Op ne tim in iz Eu ati ro on pe
Europe‘s Technological Leadership Tap the untapped resources 40,000 existing dams worldwide Huge potential for additional use for hydropower generation Africa 6%
North and Central America 11%
Asia
11%
7% Hydropower
2% 2% 10%
Water supply
20%
15%
Flood control
50%
26%
1%
13%
63% 21% 40%
2%
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Multi Purpose Other Irrigation
The renewable energy industry offers good job prospects Investing in technology leadershipâ&#x20AC;Ś creates jobs!
Achieving the 2020 renewable energy target will deliver 2.8 million jobs in total.
Source: European Commission www.andritz.com
R&D and Europeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future workplaces
R&D and Europeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future workplaces
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Investment in energy R&D in the EU Share of energy investments in 2007
Investment in energy R&D is mostly driven by the private sector, with public authorities at national and EU level also contributing significantly. Source: European Commission www.andritz.com
Europe risks losing its technological edge R&D expenditure in energy in 2007 (EUR per inhabitant)
Europe spends on average â&#x201A;Ź 20 on energy R&D per inhabitant, with the private sector contributing for a half (55%). Source: European Commission www.andritz.com
Global spending on research and development in renewable energy by technology, 2009
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R&D and Europe’s future workplaces ANDRITZ HYDRO Group in Figures ≈ 6,500 employees worldwide, thereof ≈ 4,100 in Europe Sales 2010: 1,579 MEUR ≈ 200 employees in R&D, thereof 90 % in Europe R&D Expenses 2010: ≈ 23 MEUR
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Future Demand for R&D (and respective Support) New Design and Engineering Aspects Combination of pumped storage and solar thermal generation? Generation in rivers? Offshore pumped storage? µ-HEPPs? Use of nano-technology? Standardization for hydro plants …
offshore PSP
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Energy and environmental policies require hydropower Natural, local and renewable energy resource with only about 30% of the worldwide potential exploited An essential part of the energy mix and enables the deployment of other renewable energy sources (back-up for wind and solar) Pumped storage power plants provide peak power and serve for grid stability Hydropower plants offer, compared to other generation technologies Longest operational lifetime / highest efficiency High Reliability and Availability Minimal O&M costs per kWh Sustainable and long-term investment with multiple, additional benefits, like water supply, flood control, irrigation and others
¾ Dedicated hydro R&D / support funding is needed…not only other RES!
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Hydropower has a future Just count on it â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and support it !
Thank You !
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