makingit_18_pp46-47–endpiece_print 11/05/2015 12:40 Page 46
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Half full or half empty? By 2030, global demand for water is projected to outstrip supply by 40% as a result of numerous mega-trends including climate change, rapid economic and population growth, and urbanization. As such there is potential for water to become a catalyst for conflict between multiple users and uses. Conflict could occur inside nations with local water users competing for limited resources or it could occur at the nation-state level with nations competing over transboundary water resources. Rather than being a source for conflict, water can be a catalyst for cooperation with all sections of society across political boundaries involved in the decisionmaking process of managing precious water resources. However, before we can reduce the potential for conflict over scarce water resources and promote cooperation we first need to understand how water scarcity can lead to economic loss, political instability and environmental degradation, which in turn can trigger conflict. Water is a vital resource in the production of economic goods and services. Many industrial sectors, including the food, pharmaceutical and textile manufacturers, rely on large volumes of water for production of food, medicines and clothing, and therefore are exposed to the risk of drought. However, it is not only scarcity of water that can
46 MakingIt
Photo: www.istock.com/akifcelikel-stok
As a taster for the next issue of Making It, ROBERT C. BREARS looks at how water can be a catalyst for conflict or for cooperation
impact production of goods and services, too much water can as well. For instance, floods damage critical infrastructure and the excessive amounts of chemicals and sediments that get into water during floods make it unsuitable for industrial use. As such, both floods and droughts have the ability to impact businesses’ revenue generation. At the aggregate level, floods and droughts can impact exports of goods and services, which in turn can affect overall employment and income levels leading to social unrest. Water is essential in the production of energy and so a lack of water from droughts can impact electricity production, while floods and extreme-weather events can damage energy infrastructure, further reducing economic output. As the majority of the world’s river basins cross political boundaries, political
instability from floods and droughts can occur at both the intra- and inter-state level. At the intra-state level, conflict can occur when scarce water crosses local political boundaries. With numerous countries having internal ethnic disputes, these tensions have the potential to spark civil conflict between sections of society. Meanwhile, there is the potential for tension and even conflict over scarce water resources between nation-states sharing trans-boundary water resources. This can occur when upstream states divert water resources for hydropower, agricultural or industrial production. Even floods can cause tensions between states when upstream states fail to provide early warning of floods to downstream states. At the local level, human activities, such as rapid urbanization and industrial