makingit_18_pp34-35_casado_3-column 06/05/2015 10:41 Page 34
With cities growing and opportunities increasing, Fernando Casado Cañeque considers the implications for innovation.
Getting the new urban agenda right It is well known that over 50% of the world’s population now lives in cities and it is estimated that we will reach 70% by 2050. With a modest projection of reaching a population of 9.6 billion by then, this implies having 6.72 billion citizens living in urban areas in around just 30 years’ time. We also know that this population growth will actually take place in middle and lowincome countries, where 93% of new births are now taking place. Projections suggest that India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country, while Africa’s population will increase the most and by 2050 will make up the greater share of the global population (Europe and Asia’s populations are expected to decrease, while that of the Americas will hold steady). So, cities are growing and the urban population is increasing, especially in emerging economies but here we find some countries with significant institutional weaknesses and economic constraints that hinder their ability to meet citizens’ needs.
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The working population The world is also getting older. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to triple by mid-century, from 531 million today to 1.5 billion in 2050. Many countries, especially industrialized economies, will see their share of population aged 65 and older surpass the share of people aged younger than 15. What does this tell us about working-age people? While white hair increases, the working population of many advanced economies will have to support more dependants (workers in countries such as Japan, South Korea and Spain will see their number of dependants double in this period). But countries like India, Nigeria and South Africa will have younger populations, thus bigger working-age populations and fewer dependants per worker. Interestingly, though, those countries with the bigger youth populations are not the ones generating jobs for young people.
In terms of the increase in opportunities, the world has become a single market with broader possibilities for all. Technology has allowed a drastic reduction in the costs of innovation; start-up incubators and accelerators are popping up everywhere; and social media is enabling entrepreneurs and start-ups to build brands and grow their businesses at very low cost. Around three-quarters of global economic activity is urban and, as the urban population grows, the fruits of urbanization will accelerate innovation and boost the opportunities that are enhanced by human interactions. The urban share of global production and investments will also grow. Cities are currently responsible for the bulk of production and consumption, and are the primary engines of economic growth and development. All this has generated a lot of enthusiasm among smart cities advocates, as well as big hi-tech corporations. But the question of whether urbanization and population growth can also positively impact small and medium-sized enterprises, slum dwellers, and community and neighbourhood associations in low-income countries is more pertinent than ever.