JANUARY 13, 2016
The Jewish Voice
SPECIAL FEATURES
PAGE 27
Five Potential Major Developments in US-Israel Relations in 2017 By: Jacob Kamaras
Israel has been pressing nations for decades to move their embassies to Jerusalem. In 1995, Congress passed the Jerusalem Embassy Act, calling for the U.S. embassy to be officia y moved by 1999. But the measure included a provision in which the president could postpone the move every six months by executive order “to protect the national security interests of the United States.” Since the act’s passage, Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama have each continuously exercised this provision.
deal, which was approved by the largest oil fi ms, Tillerson spent Obama administration and five many years cultivating relationother Western governments in ships with top oil-producing he onset of 2017 comes Sunni Arab Gulf states such as July 2015. several weeks before As a presidential candidate, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Qatar. President-elect DonTrump made a variety of com- Yet on Israel, which until recent ald Trump takes offi , ments regarding his opposition years had not been a major playushering in a new era in the to the deal, ranging from calls er in the global energy market, U.S.-Israel relationship. The new for stronger nuclear inspections Tillerson’s stances are relatively year and new administration to entirely nixing the Obama unknown. bring intrigue and unanswered Jewish organizations had administration’s signing of the questions on a number of major pact. Trump “has cultivated a mixed reactions to the Tillerson storylines that could shape the fair amount of ambiguity” on appointment. The American complexion of American-Israeli how he would approach the Jewish Committee noted that ties both this year and for years nuclear deal, ambiguity that is it is “unfamiliar with his larger to come. JNS.org presents five “best exemplified by Trump's geopolitical view of the world potential major developments claims of both renegotiating and and America’s place in it.” But President-elect Donald Trump (pictured here speaking at the to watch for this year. tearing up” the agreement, said Zionist Organization of Amer- March 2016 AIPAC Policy Conference) has vowed to move Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior ica President Morton A. Klein the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Will his Iran analyst at the Foundation gave the incoming administra- administration follow through on that pledge in 2017? Credit: for Defense of Democracies tion the benefit of the doubt, AIPAC. think tank. the Trump administration, at Shortly after Trump’s victory, least in its fi st months, than the Iranian President Hassan RouGolan,” said Bard. hani made it clear that Trump would not be able to unilaterObama unhinged? ally destroy the deal, telling his cabinet, “Iran's understanding Obama’s Israel policy has in the nuclear deal was that the been a hot-button issue in the accord was not concluded with Jewish community during the one country or government but past eight years, which saw was approved by a resolution higher-than-usual tension beof the U.N. Security Council, tween the Israeli and American and there is no possibility that governing administrations. Will it can be changed by a single the post-Obama era reveal any Israel set up its capital in Jerusalem in 1948, but many nations, government.” new insight into how the presincluding the U.S., have established their embassies in Tel Aviv One of Trump’s Mideast adident feels about Israel, deep as part of a refusal to recognize Israel’s annexation of eastern visers, Walid Phares, told BBC down in his heart? sections of Jerusalem and the unification of the city following Radio that rather than “ripping Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with Israeli The disagreements between the Jewish state’s victory in the 1967 Six-Day War. up” the deal, the president-elect soldiers in the northern Golan Heights region during a security Obama and Israel ranged from Will the U.S. Embassy If Trump wishes to move “will take the agreement, review and defense tour April 11, 2016. Will the U.S. recognize Israeli the president’s May 2011 comin Israel move the embassy, all he would need it, send it to Congress, demand sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2017? Credit: Kobi ments that Israel’s pre-1967 to Jerusalem? to do is not sign the upcoming from the Iranians to restore a Gideon/GPO. borders should be the starting point for an Israeli-Palestinian Trump and his ambassa- waiver, according to U.S. law. Yet Bloomberg News last month peace deal, to disputes over Isdor-designate to Israel, David Palestinian leaders have sharply that he is urging Israeli Prime raeli settlement construction, Friedman, have pledged to panned the potential move. As Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Obama’s support for the move America’s Israeli embassy such, Trump and Friedman’s to seek U.S. recognition of Isra- Iran nuclear agreement, to Nefrom Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Will resolve to move the embassy in the face of Palestinian threats el’s control of the Golan Heights tanyahu’s March 2015 address they follow through? to Congress without prior conregion after Trump takes offi Typically, any country’s for- may represent a litmus test for sultation of the White House, this month. eign embassies are located in an incoming administration “If it weren’t for Israel’s pres- to arguably the climax of the capital cities. Israel set up its that has been openly challengence, the Syria war would be tension last month—the Obama capital in Jerusalem in 1948, ing the current nature of U.S. spilling over to Jordan. So Isra- administration’s refusal to veto but many nations, including diplomacy toward Israel. el’s presence in the Golan is in- a U.N. Security Council meathe U.S., have established their dispensable for Mideast stabili- sure against Israeli settlements, embassies in Tel Aviv as part How will Trump breaking with the longstandty,” said Oren. of a refusal to recognize Israel’s handle the Iran Israel gained control of the ing U.S. policy of defending annexation of eastern sections nuclear deal? strategically important Golan Israel against one-sided U.N. of Jerusalem and the unific tion Trump’s election victory last from Syria as a result of the measures. of the city following the Jewish November immediately raised At the same time, those seek1967 war, when Syria invaded state’s victory in the 1967 Six- questions about the future of the As CEO of one of the world’s largest oil firms, Rex Tillerson spent Day War. much-discussed Iran nuclear many years cultivating relationships with top oil-producing Sunni northern Israel. In 1981, Isra- ing to downplay concerns about el extended sovereignty over a bilateral crisis have noted that Arab Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Qatar. Yet the region, a status the inter- American defense support for on Israel, which until recent years had not been a major player national community has not Israel reached all-time high in the global energy market, Tillerson’s stances are relatively levels during the Obama years, recognized. unknown. While the Obama adminis- most recently with the signing few issues or change a few issues, saying, “Since Donald Trump tration consistently opposed of a new 10-year, $38 billion and there will be a discussion.” and most of his top aides are Israeli control over territo- package for U.S. aid to the Jewstrongly pro-Israel, I don't be- ries the Jewish state acquired ish state. Where will Rex Come Jan. 20, Obama will lieve they would have allowed during the Six-Day War, the Tillerson stand on this appointment if [Tillerson] future Trump administration no longer be constrained by the Israel as secretary were hostile [to Israel].” would seemingly be much rhetorical limits of his offi . of state? more likely to back Israel on Will he go the way of President the Golan issue. Yet Dr. Mitch- Jimmy Carter—whose critiWhile the proposed embassy Will the U.S. ell Bard, executive director of cism of Israel grew sharper afmove to Jerusalem and oppo- recognize Israel’s the American-Israeli Coop- ter his presidency—or will his sition of the Iran deal repre- sovereignty in the erative Enterprise, said that post-presidential tone simply sent positions that are strongly Golan Heights? aligned with the Israeli governMember of Knesset Michael timing and priorities might be echo his outgoing administrament’s stances, Trump’s pick for Oren (Kulanu), a former Is- obstacles to pushing through a tion’s current policies and stateOne of Trump’s Mideast advisers, Walid Phares, told BBC Radio ments on Israel? (JNS.org) secretary of state—ExxonMobil raeli ambassador to the U.S. new U.S. policy. that rather than “ripping up” the Iran Nuke deal, the president—With reporting by Alex “The issue of moving the U.S. CEO Rex Tillerson—left more who currently serves as deputy elect “will take the agreement, review it, send it to Congress, to the imagination. demand from the Iranians to restore a few issues or change a minister for diplomacy in the embassy to Jerusalem seems like Traiman, Sean Savage and Rafafew issues, and there will be a discussion.” As CEO of one of the world’s Prime Minister's Offi , told it will be a higher priority for el Medoff
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