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Pakistan’s Futures
pace for such a poor country, it has done much to limit population growth (particularly by educating women), and its Islamic extremists are few in number and politically marginalized. Above all, while Bangladeshis are intensely suspicious of what they regard as an arrogant and insensitive New Delhi, the two states have no strategic conflict and are able to sort out their differences through normal means. However, Bangladesh differs from Pakistan in four important respects: its army is now excluded from politics (after an extended period of military rule); there is an enormous international NGO economic presence in the country; Bangladesh is ethnically more homogenous than Pakistan, although it does have a substantially larger Hindu minority; and, of course, Pakistan is a nuclear weapons state that challenges a vital Indian interest (through its claim to Kashmir), whereas Bangladesh has grudgingly accepted Indian hegemony and does not believe that India poses an existential threat. What conditions might turn Pakistan into “West Bangladesh”? The most important would be a strategic accommodation between India and Pakistan that transformed Pakistan into a status quo power. Assuming it retained its nuclear weapons, Pakistan could still stake a claim for middlepower status. These weapons would provide some insurance against a breakdown in any strategic accord reached with India. Although the major powers would exert pressure to reduce or eliminate them, a Pakistan at peace with its neighbors would not raise the kinds of fears that exist today. Should Pakistan reach such a strategic accommodation with India, it could afford to reduce its defense spending, and there would be some prospect of enhanced trade, a more influential South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, and possibly a more influential “South Asian” voice at international forums. The prospect of Pakistan becoming like Bangladesh is repugnant to the Pakistani leadership. Aside from being subordinate to India, Bangladesh is considered so aid-dependent that it has lost its sovereignty to a gaggle of NGOs and international organizations. The Islamists say Bangladesh is contaminated by Hindu influence, the strategists that it bowed to India because it was economically weak and dependent. Both assume that Pakistan’s critical strategic location will make it important enough to always be supported, one way or another, by outside powers.