GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2014
TRENDS
LARGEST INCREASES AND DECREASES IN TERRORISM 2012 TO 2013 Analysis of the year-to-year trends in terrorist attacks underscores its dynamic nature showing it can quickly intensify yet also fall away. As has been highlighted in the results section, the majority of terrorist attacks are concentrated in a small number of countries and this is where most of the year-to-year change is observed.
representing a 164 per cent increase. The reason for the increase in Iraq is largely due to the actions of ISIL.
While this section focuses on number of deaths, this is not always perfectly reflective of changes in overall terrorist impact as some countries may experience more incidents but fewer deaths, as was the case in Yemen in 2013.
The country with the second largest increase in the numbers of deaths was Pakistan. However, Pakistan saw a much smaller increase than Iraq with 520 more deaths in 2013 than 2012. Pakistan saw a substantial increase in the number of deaths per attack. In particular, the second and third biggest terrorist groups, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jundallah, averaged 20 more fatalities per attack in 2013 than the previous year. This highlights the growing lethality of the groups.
In 2013, 102 of the 162 countries included in this report did not experience a fatal terrorist attack. Of the remaining 60 countries, 40 experienced an increase in the number of fatalities when comparing 2012 to 2013. Conversely, there were 26 countries that had fewer deaths from terrorism in 2013 than 2012.
Syria saw the third largest increase in the number of deaths between 2012 and 2013, increasing by 71 per cent. The increase in deaths in Syria is partly a result of the ongoing civil war which has displaced millions since its start in 2011. Most of the deaths in Syria have been classified as war deaths rather than terrorist deaths.
Eighty-seven countries experienced a terrorist incident in 2013, only slightly up from 81 in the 2012. This trend has remained fairly stable over the last 14-year period reflecting the fact that many terrorist incidents can manifest themselves in very small, non-lethal attacks.
The increase in terrorism in Nigeria is due to Boko Haram which has increased in both members and resources. There was a significant increase in terrorism from 2009 after the founder and leader of Boko Haram, Mohammed Yusuf, was killed.
The five countries with the biggest increases in deaths from 2012 to 2013 are also the countries most impacted by terrorism. The number of deaths in these five countries has increased by 52 per cent over this period. The country with the biggest increase in deaths was Iraq, which saw nearly 4,000 more fatalities from terrorism in 2013 than 2012,
The country with the fifth largest increase in deaths from terrorism is Afghanistan, where there was an increase of 13 per cent or 350 deaths from 2012 to 2013. This increase is largely due to further activity by the Taliban, which killed almost 2,350 in 2013 up from 2,050 in 2012.
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