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#9.)2%$),-)*!#!." A few decades have passed since we first became aware that the world is a single system, integrated and synergetic but also small and fragile. We now know, for the first time in human history, that the majority of people on the planet are living urban lives. Despite the current global recession, projections tell us that this trend will continue. Seventy-five per cent of the global population is expected to concentrate in cities by 2050 – in megacities of several million people, or massively urbanised regions stretching across countries and continents. This relentless pace of urban change is likely to be fuelled by the environmental impacts of climate change, with more people – climate change refugees – abandoning exposed agricultural areas in favour of the relative protection and promise of the city. The scale of today’s urban context is difficult to grasp. While only 186 million people lived in cities of over a million or more in 1950, this figure reached one billion in 2000 and will grow to 1.8 billion by 2025. For megacities of ten million or more, the increase is twice as fast: from 23 million in 1950, to 229 million in 2000, and 447 million by 2025. Yet whereas Europe, North America and Oceania became mostly urban before the 1950s and Latin America during the 1960s, Asia will only hit that mark in 2024 and Africa in 2030. Even more challenging is the fact that today’s urban growth is concentrated in areas where poverty and deprivation are rife, where cities have the potential to either integrate or separate. According
to the United Nations, Mumbai – India’s dynamic powerhouse – is set to overtake Tokyo as the world’s largest city by 2050. Shanghai, meanwhile, continues to grow at a breathtaking pace in both height and breadth with more than 10,000 buildings over eight storeys high compared to just over 100 such buildings only 25 years ago. But rapid urbanisation is not always paralleled by the exponential economic growth and comprehensive infrastructure investments of the Asia Pacific region. Nowhere is this more true than in the two megacities of sub-Saharan Africa: with each passing hour, Lagos will add 67 new residents and Kinshasa 34 by 2025. Post-apartheid Johannesburg and Cairo face different problems. While Johannesburg struggles with crime, fear, segregation and AIDS, over 60 per cent of Cairo’s population lives in informal settlements and there is only one square metre of open space per person. Each Londoner, by contrast, has access to 50 times that amount. The information contained in this data section summarises research undertaken by Urban Age since 2005. It includes an overview about urban trends in Istanbul and places it in a comparative context with other world cities, including New York, Shanghai, London, Johannesburg, Mexico City, Berlin, Mumbai and São Paulo. By investigating differing patterns of urban density, transport and governance, together with a wide range of social and economic indicators, the information provides unique insight into the DNA of cities today.
'/&$%)D,D'($#!,%)&+)B,/(2)/.1!,% % 100 North America Latin America and Caribbean Europe Oceania Eastern Mediterranean
80
60
Africa
40
20
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
D,D'($#!,%)1/,B#9)!%)#9.)'/&$%)$1.)*!#!." Million people 20 Shanghai Istanbul 15
Mumbai São Paulo Mexico City New York London
10
5
Johannesburg Berlin
0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
'/&$%)D,D'($#!,%)1/,B#9)$/,'%2)#9.)B,/(2
36
21 MUMBAI DELHI 26 22
11 PARIS 9 10
21 14
ISTANBUL 12 16
10
19 10
3
LONDON 16 CHICAGO NEW YORK LOS ANGELES
SÃO PAULO 21
10
MOSCOW
BERLIN
14
Total projected population by 2025 (in millions)
12 KOLKATA MANILA
LAGOS KINSHASA
10
TOKYO
TEHRAN
RIO DE JANEIRO 13 BOGOTÁ
SEOUL 10
17 CAIRO
10
SHANGHAI BEIJING 19 15
GUANGZHOU 12 15
KARACHI MEXICO CITY
DHAKA 22 21
JAKARTA
4
LIMA
Projected population by 2025 Population in 2005 Population in 1950
JOHANNESBURG BUENOS AIRES
This world map shows the evolution of population growth and the United Nations’ projected population for the urban agglomeration in 2025 for the Urban Age cities and some of the largest and fastest growing urban centres around the world. '/&$%)$1.)!"#$%&'()*,%-./.%*.4)%,5.6&./)0778