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TRADE & INVESTMENT 2021 MIDDLE EAST FORECAST BY JOE HEPWORTH, DIRECTOR, OCO GLOBAL, AND FOUNDER OF THE BRITISH CENTRES FOR BUSINESS (BCB)
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or all the challenges that currently exist in making predictions for the year ahead, I don’t envy those who were doing the same exercise a year ago, given what’s transpired since (much as they’d have been able to claim Force Majeure). Based on where we are now, in the latter stages of the whole Covid-19 episode and with the signal advances in vaccination progress in November & December however, I do think that we can make some relatively confident calls on the year ahead in terms of the foreign direct investment and international trade landscape for the Middle East. 30 | LOGISTICS NEWS ME | FEBRUARY 2021
The first and most obvious thing to suggest is that it will be a good year, taken in isolation. The effect of Covid19 in 2020 and the impact it has had on trade and investment (estimated to be down by 40% versus 2019) was such that even very modest growth would look good in relative terms. As such, don’t be fooled by year-on-year figures - for anyone who’s reporting them in 2021 - a more accurate benchmark would be 2019 or 2018 figures, but do expect a return to growth, albeit from a much lower base. The flurry of activity between the UAE and Israel that’s marked the last few months looks set to continue into 2021. It’s likely to change in nature however, with more substance replacing the initial excitement, as tangible deals start to be struck. Based on the work we’ve been doing with Israeli companies, the main focus at this stage looks to be on establishing trade links – finding agents, distributors & commercial partners – ahead of potential inward FDI projects over the next few years once the market has been proven. WWW.CBNME.COM
