JANUARY 13, 2021 - JANUARY 19, 2021
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nfl
WC ‘dog wins guarantee nothing The NFL’s first “Super Wild Card Weekend” was a resounding success, except for fans and players of Chicago, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Tennessee and Washington, the losers of the six games. As detailed last week, of the 12 Wild Card games played between 2017 and 2019, underdogs won eight of them outright and went 11-1 ATS. The 12 games produced 10 Unders and just two Overs. While not quite as dramatic this season, underdogs won twice outright and went 4-2 ATS. Two games clearly stayed Under (by 18 and 20.5 points). Three games clearly went Over (by 8, 9.5 and 38 points). Only Buffalo’s 27-24 win over Indianapolis could have gone either way as the total dropped
from 51.5 to 50.5 over the 24 hours leading to kickoff. The game fell 51 and could have been ‘middled.’
Pigskin Picks Andy Iskoe @vegasandy711 Fifty-one has long been a ‘key’ number for NFL totals. During the 2020 regular season 11 games produced exactly 51 total points. That’s 4.3%, slightly higher than the historical rate. The Colts/Bills game was also the only game decided by fewer than 7 points (3). The other five were decided by
Bunting: Take Browns Continued from p5 total in this one has fluctuated because it is harder to predict the weather in Buffalo than it is to predict these game outcomes. At press time, the forecast looks relatively stable and I am comfortable grabbing the over. Buffalo’s offense presents a much different challenge than the Tennessee offense that Baltimore faced last week. The Ravens will go from seeing the league’s best running back and a traditional run game, to an unconventional Buffalo offense with a mobile quarterback. Both offenses should find success. OVER
Sunday Browns +10 at Chiefs: Unless you got a rogue -2.5 against New Orleans in Week 15, the Chiefs have not covered a single point spread during the second half of the regular season. Kansas City has not won a game by double digits since beating the Jets in Week 8. Cleveland is playing with house money at this point. They made the playoffs for the first time in 18 years, they eliminated their bitter rival and they did it while missing key players and coaches. The Browns have nothing to lose on Sunday. BROWNS Buccaneers at Saints -3: Rosters change. Coaches change. This is Tom Brady’s first year in Tampa Bay. Those things are all true. But sometimes, a team just has your number. New Orleans is 15-5 against Tampa Bay since 2011, including two double-digit wins this season. What can the Buccaneers do differently in this game to produce a different fate? My only concern with New Orleans is their lack of rest. This is New Orleans’ 13th straight week with a game, while Tampa Bay had a bye in December. But Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara all missed games during that stretch, so those guys might have the freshest legs on the field. SAINTS Last week: 1-4-1 Season: 52-55-1 JamesBunting@GamingToday.com
from 7 to 12 points). With underdogs enjoying success in the Wild Card round, the natural question is how these teams that sprung upsets in their next game, in the Divisional round? If you’re a fan of the Cleveland Browns or the L.A. Rams, who pulled the upsets this past weekend, the results are not encouraging. Under the format used from 1990 through last season, 45 teams won Wild Card games outright as underdogs. Only eight won the following week with 37 having their Super Bowl dreams end. The ATS results were somewhat better but not even close to profitable as those Wild Card upset winners were just 16-29 ATS for 35.6% winners and a net loss of 15.9 units on a flat bet basis. If that profile holds up this week, it is more likely that neither the Browns nor Rams will cover than that both will cover and less than 50/50 that even one will cover. But games start off 0-0 and both the Browns and Rams are getting a TD or more.
Saturday Rams at Packers, Total 46: The two best players in this game are Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and Rams DT Aaron Donald. Injured in the Seattle win, Donald is expected to play. The next best player may be Rams CB Jalen Ramsey. LA has the NFL’s top ranked defense in points, total yards and yards per play allowed. Green Bay has top-five rankings in the offensive counterparts, including leading the NFL in scoring (31.8 ppg). Both teams have top-10
Photo from AP Photos
The Rams hope Aaron Donald will be ready Saturday. rushing offenses which suggests both will be able to establish a running attack and be capable of taking time off the clock when holding a second half lead. Rams QB Jared Goff and his surgically repaired thumb had to replace backup starter John Wolford when the latter suffered a neck injury. Goff played well but was clearly not near 100 percent, creating an even greater gap at the position between the teams. LA’s defense is good enough to force Green Bay to settle for field goals. The Rams’ best chance of winning is in a slower-paced, lowscoring game. The Packers are also capable of winning such a game. They’ve held nine foes to 21 points or less, including in four of their last five games, all wins, allowing
24 in the fifth. UNDER Ravens +2 at Bills: Both teams exorcized playoff demons last week with their wins, each was in a competitive game. Baltimore overcame a 10-0 first quarter deficit to forge a halftime tie and was very efficient in holding Tennessee to just 209 total yards (including 51 rushing) while gaining 401. Buffalo was outgained 472-397 but led the rest of its game after taking a 14-10 lead just before halftime. Buffalo won its seventh straight but had its ATS winning streak snapped at eight. Baltimore has won six straight and has covered its last seven. Baltimore’s won the last three meetings with the Bills since 2016 by 7, 44 and 6 points, holding Please see Iskoe p9
NFL Averages & Rankings
c/o Andy Iskoe AVE AVE AVE AVE RUSH PASS TOTL RUSH PASS TOTL PTS PTS PTS PTS ATS ATS ATS YRDS YRDS YRDS YDSA YRDS YRDS NET NET FOR AGST FOR AGST TEAM SUW SUL SUT W L P OVR UND PSH FOR FOR FOR AGST AGST AGST YRDS T/O HOME HOME ROAD ROAD LA RAMS 10 6 0 9 7 0 4 12 0 128 246 374 94 188 282 92 -1 20.8 13.5 25.8 23.5 GREEN BAY 13 3 0 10 6 0 9 7 0 132 257 389 113 221 334 55 7 31.6 19.5 32.0 26.6 BALTIMORE 11 5 0 10 5 1 7 8 1 194 171 365 105 217 322 43 4 29.2 18.1 29.2 19.8 BUFFALO 13 3 0 11 5 0 10 4 2 107 290 397 122 239 361 36 4 32.0 23.5 30.1 23.3 CLEVELAND 11 5 0 6 10 0 9 7 0 147 224 371 107 263 370 1 10 25.6 22.8 25.4 29.6 KANSAS CITY 14 2 0 7 9 0 8 8 0 112 304 416 122 236 358 58 6 27.5 22.2 31.6 23.0 TAMPA BAY 11 5 0 9 7 0 9 7 0 98 294 392 81 249 330 62 8 28.5 23.9 33.0 20.5 NEW ORLEANS 12 4 0 9 7 0 10 6 0 141 236 377 91 215 306 71 8 31.6 24.8 28.6 17.4 The above chart shows each team’s wins, losses, point spread and Over/Under results plus yardage, turnover and home/road scoring averages for the current 2020 season through Monday night’s game. Through 1-11-21.