Liberty Today • April 2011 9
Five Republicans to Watch for President
Rep. Michele Bachmann
Speaker Newt Gingrich
Woody Jenkins
Editor, Liberty Today
WASHINGTON — With the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire Republican Primary nine months away, the Republican nomination appears very much up for grabs with no clear front-runner. President Barack Obama appears vulnerable, but it is still unclear who could both win the nomination and defeat Obama. Here’s the latest buzz on the race for the GOP nomination: • Former Gov. Mitt Romney has some momentum coming out of the 2008 race. He spent $110 million in that race for the nomination, including $45 million of his own money. He ran 2nd to Sen. John McCain in the New Hampshire primary and beat McCain solidly in Michigan. Then McCain won South Carolina and Florida. McCain sealed the nomination in the Super Tuesday primaries of Feb. 5, 2008, and Romney withdrew shortly thereafter. Heading toward 2012, Romney looks strong, especially in New Hampshire. He will face continued questions about changes of position on issues and the Massachusetts health care law. • Former Gov. Mike Huckabee is the sentimental favorite of many Republican voters. He won the firstin-the-nation Iowa caucuses in 2008 but fell behind in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Super Tuesday. He has maintained a fairly high profile since then because of his weekly Fox News program. In the polls, he fares well among Republican primary voters, who give him high favorable approval ratings. Some pundits insist that Huckabee won’t run for President in 2012, and his candidacy remains uncertain. • Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich appears likely to run for the nomination. He has contacts nationwide, solid credentials, and good name-recognition. He resigned his Speakership after losses in the 1998 elections. Since then he has been a successful author and consultant. In March, the former Speaker formed an exploratory committee. He appears to have wide support in all parts of the country but faces the challenge of sparking his avowed supporters into action. • Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, although still relatively unknown nationwide, was the top money-raiser in the country during the 1st quarter of 2011. Considering her lack of name-recognition, she is already doing well in the polls. Three Tea Party-oriented candidates have considered running — Sen. Jim DeMint, former Gov. Sarah Palin, and Congressman Mike Pence. If none of those three run,
Gov. Mike Huckabee
Gov. Mitt Romney
Five Potential Candidates Their Strengths and Weaknesses MICHELE BACHMANN
STRENGTHS: A solid conservative, quick on her feet, intelligent, only Tea Party-affiliated candidate, raised more money in 1st Quarter than any other candidate, loyal following, a smart trial lawyer who won’t lose a debate. WEAKNESSES: The left is most afraid of a conservative woman and will do anything to demonize her. She must prevent the left from defining her before she establishes herself with voters nationwide.
STRENGTHS: High name recognition, lots of experience, a known commodity, strong intellect, friends and contacts in every part of the country. WEAKNESSES: Sometimes speaks in academic terms and can appear professorial. Conservatives want him to break away from the establishment and shake things up more.
STRENGTHS: Executive experience, developed a strong following during 2008, has stayed high profile through Fox News show, nationwide organization, high positives, strong appeal to Christians. WEAKNESSES: He walks a fine line. People like him but may see him more as a pastor or a friend than a President. He needs to be seen as stronger to get their votes.
STRENGTHS: Proven executive, looks Presidential, good organization from 2008, polished, capable, has the money. WEAKNESSES: People see him as a potential President but so far he hasn’t really connected with ordinary voters. He takes a conservative stand on issues but conservative voters are not yet sure he would govern from the right.
STRENGTHS: Proven executive, strong-willed, no nonsense, charismatic, articulate, extensive contacts nationwide and worldwide, has guts. WEAKNESSES: Conservatives love what he is saying, but they didn’t know he was a conservative. Lack of governmental experience hurts. The media, including some on Fox News, want to marginalize him, but he won’t let that happen. A real wild card.
NEWT GINGRICH
MIKE HUCKABEE
MITT ROMNEY
DONALD TRUMP
The Latest Poll Numbers
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll ending 4/4/11 Among Republican primary voters:
Mitt Romney Donald Trump Mike Huckabee Newt Gingrich Sarah Palin Tim Pawlenty Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Haley Barbour
21% 17% 17% 11% 10% 6% 5% 3% 1%
Without Trump, Palin, Huckabee, or Santorum: Mitt Romney 40% Newt Gingrich 20% Tim Pawlenty 12% Michele Bachmann 11% Haley Barbour 3% Note: Some of the candidates
are still unknown nationwide.
Donald Trump
Bachmann will be heir apparent to Tea Party support nationwide. She is a staunch conservative and articulate spokesman for fiscal responsibility and family values. Although Bachmann represents Minnesota in Congress, she is a native of Iowa and could be a force in the Iowa caucuses. She has the intellect and speaking ability to stand above the crowd. An articulate conservative woman nominee for President is the left’s worst nightmare, especially against Obama. So Bachmann will have to survive the endless attacks of the liberal media. • Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, also of Minnesota, has been viewed as a model of the new brand of upcoming Republican governors who can win and stay elected in a Blue State. He appears to be committed to the race and is already showing up in the polls, despite the lack of national name-recognition. • Perhaps the most intriguing potential candidate is Donald Trump, a billionaire who has never run for public office. Trump shocked political pundits by drawing 17 percent of the vote in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll this week. Media critics have been busy belittling his possible candidacy while Trump has been busy firing up the grassroots with his provocative statements on a wide range of topics from China to Muslim extremism to the Obama birth certificate issue. Like Romney, Trump can self-fund a campaign. One of the challenges for a charismatic and outspoken individual like Trump is always to think before you speak. So far, he hasn’t made a misstep. There is a certain parallel to Ross Perot, but Perot didn’t have the intellect of Trump and he wasn’t a conservative. The rise or fall of Donald Trump in this election may depend on whether GOP voters conclude that he is indeed a reliable conservative who will do what he says. • Former Sen. Rick Santorem is a good man out there trying to start a prairie fire. Right now, he needs something to spark his possible candidacy. • Herman Cain is the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza and a talk show host. He tells it like it is. If he runs, he will build a host of admirers and supporters. • Gov. Haley Barbour has done a good job as Governor of Mississippi and was a good RNC chairman. Right now, he lacks the issue or the natural constituency to take him to the top tier of candidates. It’s a long way from here to the Iowa caucuses, but, at this moment, we’d keep our eyes on these five — Bachmann, Gingrich, Huckabee, Romney, and Trump.