JUNE 2012 // standcanada.org
SUMMARY // CONTENTS // DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH SUDAN
While direct conflict between Sudanese and South Sudanese forces abated in May, tensions and distrust remain high despite a warning from the UN Security Council and a return to the negotiating table. In other South Sudanese news, China has offered South Sudan $8 billion in development funds for road, hydropower, infrastructure and agriculture products.
PEACE AND NEGOTIATION PROCESS
Following the ten-day seizure of the oil rich area of Heglig by the South Sudan army, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously endorsed Resolution 2046, which includes an African Union initiated road map intended to end the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan, demanding an end to all air and ground attacks. In other news, the IMF has suggested that in order to overcome present and future economic challenges, Sudan must facilitate specific reforms following a specific two-pronged strategy.
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POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS //
2. Provide up to three transport helicopters and five tactical helicopters: six transport, six tactical and three observation helicopters are still required for the UN mission.
Violence continues to plague the border regions of Abyei, South Kordofan and the Blue Nile State. The conflict has escalated into a higher phase, as the rebels in the border regions (SPLM-N) have joined a national alliance opposed to the government called the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) which consists of Darfur rebel groups the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM). Government troops continue to use heavy tactics such as aerial bombardments which disproportionally harm civilians and the government continues to deny access to many humanitarian agencies. In response, the Canadian government can take the following actions: 1. The Canadian Government should dispatch researchers or enlist the help of NGOs who have expertise in statistical research methods to the Sudan border regions and Ethiopia to investigate, document, and statistically verify the occurrence of mass atrocities from refugees who have escaped the violence. 2. Canada should demand that the North allow humanitarian organizations access to populations in need in the border regions where the fighting is taking place. 3. Canada should speak out at the UN against the escalating conflict and Canada’s Foreign Minister should create an ongoing multilateral dialogue with its international partners to apply pressure on both parties to stop attacks and begin a troop withdrawal.
3. Continue to support, and consider increasing funding to, the International Security and Stabilization Support Strategy (ISSSS), which is a UN multilateral peacebuilding fund that is integral to the stability and security of the volatile Eastern region.
4 Domestic Policies on Genocide Prevention
In order to effectively prevent, monitor and address grave human rights abuses and mass atrocities, the Parliament of Canada should create a Sub-Committee for the Prevention of Genocide and Other Crimes Against Humanity which should be attached to the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development. This would allow Parliament to conduct: • MONITORING: keep MPs informed about the onset of genocide and crimes against humanity, including the identifiable stages of these crimes • PREVENTION: become proactive in its response to such crises, allowing MPs to act early and utilize a wider set of policy mechanisms • COORDINATION: centralize Canada’s institutional approach to the issue of mass atrocities by giving one central committee the mandate to comprehensively monitor, study and recommend courses of actions.4
2 South Sudan
In the wake of South Sudan’s secession, the new country is faced with many critical development issues that could threaten its progress and re-ignite conflict in the region. In order to help South Sudan from becoming a failed state, Canada can aid South Sudan in the following areas: 1. As requested by the Government of South Sudan, Canada should chose one of the following areas of development to better streamline and manage the development process: a) general security b) food security c) healthcare d) education e) democratization. 2. Canada should use its influence at the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the UN to broker an agreement between North and South Sudan to reduce the national debt of the two countries only if they both work out a reasonable debt sharing arrangement together. 3. Canada should consider providing direct bilateral assistance to the Government of South Sudan (GoSS), now that it has the opportunity to negotiate directly with the Southern government without interference from the North.
3 Democratic Republic of the Congo
According to the Secretary General, the United Nations Organization Stablization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO) is lacking critical resources such as military observers, transport and tactical helicopters. Although Canada has been playing a role in the DRC since 1999, due to the end of the combat mission in Afghanistan, it now has the capacity to provide more resources that are desperately needed. STAND calls on the government to: 1. Increase the number of military observers: Canada’s mandate is to provide 12 observers and currently there are only nine stationed in the DRC. The UN mission in total is currently lacking another 29 observers.
DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH SUDAN //
JESSICA DUFFY While direct conflict between Sudanese and South Sudanese forces abated in May, tensions and distrust remain high despite a warning from the UN Security Council and a return to the negotiating table. April represented a low point in relations between the neighbouring countries since South Sudan’s secession in July last year, with ongoing clashes in border regions and disputed territories which many feared would escalate into full-blown conflict. In response, on 2 May, the UN Security Council threatened the two former civil war foes with sanctions if they did not cease hostilities and resume talks on a range of outstanding disputes within two weeks. The Security Council resolution endorsed an African Union plan which demanded the two nations cease fighting, withdraw troops from disputed areas, resume talks within two weeks, and resolve all outstanding disputes within three months, under threat of sanctions.
The resolution seemed to lead to a respite from the violence, but after a calm 48 hours, South Sudan alleged fresh attacks by Sudanese forces. While the ceasefire should have commenced on 5 May, on 9 May South Sudan accused the North of violating the ceasefire by bombing and shelling seven areas within its territory over two days. Further similar accusations were made throughout May. On May 11, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, condemned Sudan’s “indiscriminate” aerial bombing of South Sudan, and warned that attacks harming civilians could be considered international crimes. “Deliberate or reckless attacks on civilian areas can, depending on the circumstances, amount to an international crime,” Pillay said. “I am saddened and outraged to learn that such attacks which place civilians at great risk – and have already killed and injured some and caused many thousands of others to flee – have been taking place again in recent days.” jUNE 2012 // 3
While limited access to border regions makes it difficult to independently verify the slew of traded accusations, UN peacekeepers visited two South Sudanese sites allegedly bombed by warplanes from Sudan the previous week and reportedly found several craters. UN officials also confirmed that a woman and child were injured. During her visit to Juba, Pillay also addressed accusations that some members of local security forces have been charged for torture and beatings during a civilian disarmament campaign in Jonglei state. She urged President Salva Kiir and other South Sudanese officials to combat impunity, and said that human rights are non-negotiable and cannot be “cherry-picked.” On 11 May, the UN confirmed that South Sudan had withdrawn its 700-strong police force from the disputed Abyei region. Sudan’s army was confirmed to have withdrawn on 30 May, but defied a UN request to remove its police force. Two days later, however, Sudan announced that it had also withdrawn its police from Abyei; this, however, is yet to be independently verified. Officials from the two countries finally returned to Addis Ababa for negotiations on 29 May, but any hopes of a swift settlement were almost immediately quashed when South Sudan accused the north of bombing its territory hours before the start of negotiations. In other South Sudanese news, China has offered South Sudan $8 billion in development funds for road, hydropower, infrastructure and agriculture products. The offer followed Kiir’s recent visit to Beijing. The funds will be provided over the next two years, and Chinese companies will complete the projects. China is already the largest investor in oilfields in South Sudan, and has close trade relations with both nations.
PEACE AND NEGOTIATIONS PROCESS //
CHELSEA SAUVÉ Since South Sudan gained independence in July 2011, Sudan has presented a number of complaints to the United Nationals Security Council (UNSC). These complaints are most often related to South Sudan’s alleged support of rebel forces in South Kordofan and Darfur – namely the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement- North (SPLM-N). Kharthoum has complained of South Sudan’s attempt to seize the city of Meiram in Sudan’s state of South Kordofan, as well as within South Darfur as recently as May 23rd. Sudan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Daffa-Alla Elhag Ali Osman, has filed a new complaint accusing South Sudan of carrying out deliberate attacks on Darfur and South Kordofan, both of which are located in Sudan. Osman has also accused South Sudan of providing support to rebel groups in the Darfur and South Kordofan area. South Sudan has also launched a number of complaints, including those related to continued air attacks on its territory, and Khartoum’s arming of militias groups in South Sudan. Following the ten-day seizure of the oil rich area of Heglig by the South Sudan army, the UNSC unanimously endorsed Resolution 2046, which includes an African Union initiated road map intended to end the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan, demanding an end to all air and ground attacks. Thus far, the terms of Resolution 2046 have been ignored, and the violence continues. Daffa-Alla Elhag Ali Osman has asked that the UNSC deal with South Sudan’s breach of the resolution, stating that continued cross-border attacks clearly breach the terms of the Resolution. Lead mediator of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel on Sudan (AUHIP), Thabo Mbeki, announced that Juba (the ruling Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement [SPLM]) and Khartoum (the ruling National Congress Party [NCP]) accepted the resumption of the negotiated talks that began on 29 May. These negotiations re// 4
sumed following a two-month suspension, while violence ensued between the two states. Juba rejected any conditions attached to the negotiations, while Khartoum continued to insist that security issues remain the first priority. The negotiations revolved around issues related to the implementation of security agreements, and other post-secession matters. The UNSC has given Juba and Khartoum three months to reach agreements on key issues, including Abyei, oil, citizenship, and border demarcation. The UNSC has expressed its readiness to assist the parties in implementing their agreements, and to support the mechanisms established by them. However, they have stated that should the parties not reach a settlement within the allocated time bracket, they may incur non-military sanctions. The National Consensus Forces (NCF), a coalition of mainstream opposition groups including the National Umma Party (NUP) and the Popular Congress Party (PCP) of Sudan, have informed lead mediator, Thabo Mbeki, of their desire to participate (as a third party) in the upcoming negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan. The NCP has welcomed this initiative, suggesting that it is likely to improve all “national agendas.” Following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF), first evaluation of Sudan’s economic state, one year after the secession of South Sudan, it was discovered that Sudan’s already fragile economy is facing times of great challenge. When South Sudan succeeded from Sudan in July 2011, Sudan lost 75% of its oil reserves, in turn losing billions of dollars in revenues. This change is most evident in Sudan’s oil barrel output. Prior to the secession of South Sudan, Sudan produced close to 500,000 barrels per day, and now produces a mere 115 barrels per day. The IMF concluded that the economic situation in Sudan has not shown any improvement in 2012 so far.
The IMF has suggested that in order to overcome present and future economic challenges, Sudan must facilitate specific reforms that follow a twopronged strategy. The first is a short-term emergency measure that is aimed at stabilizing the Sudanese economy by accepting a number of fiscal consolidation measures, such as the removal of fuel subsidies. Once this has been accomplished, the IMF has proposed a medium-term plan to establish “a comprehensive structural reform program [in order to] recalibrate the economy in line with the country’s economic and financial potential.” While Sudan has attempted to take initiative in facilitating the growth of its economy, such efforts have failed for a multitude of reasons. For instance, the creation of an international conference designed to draw foreign investments and financial support for the Sudanese economy was unsuccessful. Initiated following the independence of South Sudan, Sudan hoped to gain international support to make up for some of its economic loses. While this initiative was appreciated, the US intended to use it as a means to pressure Sudan into an agreement concerning international humanitarian access to conflict zones. Given that Sudan denied the access requested, the US cancelled the conference. Recently, a Sudanese diplomat blamed the United States for the worsening economic conditions within Sudan, suggesting that the lengthy implementation of economic sanctions has contributed to the country’s poor economy. Since 1997, Sudan has been under immense US economic and trade sanctions. These sanctions were implemented on account of Sudan’s alleged connections with terrorism networks and human rights abuses. In 2003, the US imposed further sanctions, specifically on weapons exports, following the outbreak of conflict in Sudan’s western region of Darfur.
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STAND DIGEST STAFF // MANAGING EDITOR // TYLER FOX WRITERS // JESSICA DUFFY, CHELSEA SAUVÉ
REFERENCES // DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH SUDAN
“China offers South Sudan $ bln in development funds,” Reuters Africa, 28 April 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL6E8FS1G520120428 “UN Council threatens Sudan, S.Sudan with sanctions,” Reuters Africa, 2 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL1E8G285G20120502 “Sudan, S.Sudan say border quiet after AU ultimatum,” Reuters Africa, 3 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8G3DYC20120503 “S. Sudan accuses Sudan of bombing in blow to talks,” Reuters Africa, 4 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8G41BS20120504 “South Sudan accuses Khartoum of more border attacks,” Reuters Africa, 9 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8G9DKU20120509 “Sudan and S.Sudan at odds over talks after fighting,” Reuters Africa, 10 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8GABTW20120510 “UN official condemns Sudan for “indiscriminate” bombing,” Reuters Africa, 11 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8GBA8E20120511 “S.Sudan police withdraw from disputed Abyei-UN,” Reuters Africa, 11 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL1E8SBDEI20120511 “Sudans restart talks amid bombing accusations,” Reuters Africa, 29 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8GTFZX20120529 “UN confirms Sudan army withdrew from Abyei,” Reuters Africa, 30 May 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8GUFYV20120530 “Sudan says it pulls police from disputed region,” Reuters Africa, 1 June 2012, http://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E8H18LU20120601
PEACE PROCESS AND NEGOTIATIONS
“Sudanese economy is facing daunting challenges – IMF,” Sudan Tribune, 29 May 2012, Sudan Tribune, http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanese-economy-is-facing,42752. “Sudan blames US for its economic situation,” Sudan Tribune, 29 May 2012, http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-blames-US-for-its-economic,42754. “Sudan files new complaint to Security Council against South Sudan,” Sudan Tribune, 26 May 2012, http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanfiles-new-complaint-to,42720. “Sudan’s opposition requests inclusion in talks with Juba,” Sudan Tribune, 26 May 2012, http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-s-oppositionrequests,42715. “UN chief welcomes resumption of post-independence talks,” Sudan Tribune, 25 May 2012, http://www.sudantribune.com/UN-chief-welcomes-resumption-of,42712.
June 2012 STAND Digest