Protean Prediction Collective Wisdom Engine

A marketing tool for today’s changed world

P R O T E A N S T R AT E G I E S I N C .

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Contents

Introduction to ProteanPrediction Scientific Validation Case Studies

Page 2

Briefly

Prediction Markets are a means of aggregating the inherent wisdom of the crowd in order to predict an outcome

Prediction Market theory applied to consumer research is a powerful, technique that enables marketers to evaluate ideas quickly, effectively and reliably ProteanPrediction Collective Wisdom Engine is a simplified, streamlined research methodology based on prediction market theory

Page 3

A marketing tool for today’s changed world

Enables marketers to harness consumer opinions once or at multiple points during the project development Talks to consumers at the speed they are used to Allows marketers to benefit from consumers’ inherent marketing savvy Gives consumers a respite from research complexity by offering them simple ways to make their opinions known and express them in their own language

Page 4

The underlying premise

2 Simple yet profound tenets 

Ask what they think other people would do, not what they personally would do



Reward them for getting it right

1 Complex and profound tenet 

Apply prediction market algorithm to weight the responses

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Simply what you need to know

Will it work?

Why? Why not?

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Three core questions 1.

2.

If we asked 100 people like yourself whether this campaign would make them want to buy BRAND X, how many would say “YES!”

Now, how much of your $ would you bet that your answer above is right? You only have $100 to bet between the two options?

3.

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You estimated that more people would be convinced to buy [Product} by watching ‘AD D’ ….

Why did you think this?

Plus: tailored to the needs of every project

Questions 

Demographic and behavioral screening questions



Pre-exposure brand and competitive awareness and preference



Post exposure preference



Full range of diagnostic testing

Sample 

Customer lists, hand raisers, brand enthusiasts



On-line panel



Any other source

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Prediction market difference Traditional Quant Study

ProteanPrediction Focused on what people think

other people would say, not Remove Bias

Subjective personal opinions

their narrow personal biases People are better at predicting the behaviour of others than their own behaviour

Engage respondents

Based on respondents’ holistic thinking

Respondents rewarded for completing the survey, not honesty or accuracy

Deconstructs evaluation into rational bites, eliminating “irrational” thinking

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Respondents are rewarded for

thinking about the question and being right!

Encourage irrational component of forming judgments and making decisions

Visual analysis of open ended question

Comments about Statement A Total sample

Page 10

Scientifically Validated

Widely used

Iowa Electronic Markets: political predictions more accurate than the most accurate polls at least 75% of the time Hollywood Markets: Predict box office receipts Used by: Google, Hewlett Packard, Wrigley (Global); Kraft; GE; Microsoft; Intercontinental Hotels Group; GM’ etc.

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Accurate predictions In a study of prediction markets versus traditional research, professors at Northwestern University found that prediction markets were closer to the outcome of US Presidential elections 74% of the time compared to traditional polling (using 964 polls covering the period 1988 to 2004) −

http://www.northwestern.edu/ipr/news/predictionmarkets.pdf

GM Car sales, November 2008 Forecast

Actual

Variance %

Chevy Cars

Light trucks

Chevy Cars

Light trucks

Chevy Cars

Light trucks

GM forecast (beginning of month)

150,000

250,000

95,000

152,000

36.7

39.2

Edmonds estimate of sales (end of month)

125,000

215,000

95,000

24.0

29.3

prediction markets (7 days into the month)

97,000

160,000

95,000

152,000

2.1

5.0

prediction markets (end of month)

107,000

180,000

95,000

152,000

11.2

15.6

152,000

http://www.crowdclarity.com/learnmore.htm

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The science

These two academic papers give an interesting overview into some of the academic thinking behind the theory of prediction markets.

Additional Links http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keVL0PkCpaQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Econsensuspoint%2Ecom%2Fprediction%2Dmar kets%2Dblog%2F&feature=player_embedded This link connects you to a video of the CEO of Best Buy talking about their use of Prediction Markets. Given their recent business collapse, I am not sure they are necessarily the best example http://www.hsx.com/ This is the link to the Hollywood Stock Exchange, which is probably the most famous prediction market site – it has become an extremely important tool for movie producers to judge the potential of their future movies before they make them. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/0301/04.html This is the most fun of all of them – PBS video that makes it all clear.

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Case Studies

Case Studies A few examples of how ProteanPrediction has helped provide wise, reliable learning:

Ontario Lottery and Gaming 

450 responses



5 different messaging directions



OLG needed to adopt a messaging strategy to combat negative publicity about business and governance practices o

If we asked one hundred people to choose the one statement that would make them more confident in OLG to operate its lottery system fairly, how many would choose each statement

Ontario Tourism Marketing Partnership 

300 responses



2 segments, 3 images



Combined with qualitative focus groups (quali-quant)



OTMP wanted to determine which image would be most engaging image to use on their 2011 Travel brochure cover: o

If we asked 100 people to choose the brochure cover that would make them most interested in reading the brochure to learn unexpected, exciting things about traveling in Ontario how many would choose each brochure

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Case Studies (continued)

Canadian Paralympic Association 

250 responses



6 Strategic Directions



Combined with one-on-one telephone interviews



CPC needed to determine which of 6 strategic approaches to motivating kids with disabilities, their parents and the parasport community, to participate in group sport, would be most effective o

If we ask 100 people just like you, how many would say that this “idea” would convince them that when kids with disabilities get involved in sport, the positive impact upon them and their families can be enormous?

Campbell's Soup Company 

350 responses



4 finished commercials; 3 core questions



Campbell's needed to determine whether they should use the US advertising or a Canadian campaign in the Canadian marketplace



“If we asked 100 people just like you whether this commercial would make them want to try Campbell’s Lite Soup, how many would say yes? [Brand]



“If we asked 100 people just like you whether this commercial would convince them that Campbell’s Soups are healthy, how many would say yes? [Main message] o

If we asked 100 people just like you whether this commercial would convince them that Campbell’s Soup is low in calories, how many would say yes?[Benefit] Page 17

Ontario Place 

900 Respondents



3 Prediction Markets



2 Thematic events, impact on visitation of new attractions, 2 pricing alternatives for park admission



Ontario Place used ProteanPrediction to help determine the optimum strategy for the 30 th anniversary season of the amusement park in 2011 o

If we asked 100 people just like you how many would say 1.

that they would only visit Ontario Place if the Observations Wheel is one of the three new rides and attractions

2.

that they would visit the park more often if the Observations Wheel is one of the three new rides and attractions

3. o

o

that the Observations Wheel would have no impact on whether they visit or do not visit Ontario Place

If we asked 100 people just like you, how many would say that 1.

that more people would visit Ontario Place because of the “Free Grounds Admission”

2.

That the “Free Grounds Admission” would make no difference to how many people will visit Ontario Place

If we asked 100 people just like you how many would say 1.

2.

they would be motivated to visit Ontario Place this year or visit it more often because of the these 40th Anniversary celebratory events they would be motivated to visit Ontario Place this year or visit it more often because of the addition of these new rides and attractions

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Recent Clients



Canadian Beverage Association (Messaging strategy)



Shaw Cable (TV copy testing)



Yellow Pages (Web design)



Canadian Liver Foundation (Promotion test)



Ministry of Health Promotion (Print advertising – diabetes information)

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Molson’s (TV Post test)

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For more information call Laurence Bernstein 416 967-3337 x 101 bernstein@proteanstrategies.com www.proteanstrategies.com

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