Chapter four: Getting there: The 2050 roadmap
4.7.
Infrastructure
Roadmap enabling area 4: Infrastructure Infrastructure: The 2050 Roadmap Current situation
EU and NA grids comprised of a number of separate synchronous AC blocks. Nationally optimised with grid congestion
End-2010
10 yr rolling plan which identifies future transmission, generation and supply chain targets
Entso-E take on the role of overseeing strategic planning of SSG
2015
Nationally planned HV transmission and REN generation projects, many individual projects already in planning or under construction
EU: 44% carbon neutral power, of which 15% is REN NA: 9% carbon neutral power, of which all is REN
Construction of nationally planned HV lines
2020
Regional EU SSG (HVDC) initiatives underway Ongoing reinforcement of HVAC lines in NA and EU
No new construction of coal plants
No new construction of fossil fuel plants in EU
Regional EU SSG initiatives in place. Smart technologies widespread. EU wide SSG emerging
EU wide SSG in place. Initial HVDC connections with NA begin
Early electricity exports begin from NA to EU
Considerable electricity exports from NA to EU begin
R&D into storage and flexible reserves
Regional planning of commercial scale demonstration plants and deployment plants for REN generation
2030
Strategic decommissioning of FF plants in EU and NA begins
Strategic development plan for SSG and REN to 2050
Smart technologies begin to be introduced in EU
Very little use of smart technologies
4.7.1.
2012
2040
2050
The majority of EU FF plants are strategically or naturally decommissioned
100% REN power supply
Extensive SSG grid infrastructure across EU and NA
SSG in place across EU and NA
Ongoing programme for new REN generation
Substantial improvement in NA grid infrastructure
Construction of REN generation capacity to meet 2020 national targets
Large scale construction of REN generation capacity to 2020 national targets
Large scale construction of REN generation capacity to meet 2030 national and regional targets and to replace decommissioned FF plants
Large scale construction of REN generation capacity to meet 2040 regional targets and to replace decommissioned FF plants
Introduction
The generation and transmission infrastructure in place today across Europe and North Africa reflects the way in which fossil fuels (and to a lesser extent nuclear technologies) have dominated the power sector over the past century. Grid systems have been developed using AC technology with generation infrastructure located close to consumption centres. Generation infrastructure has, until relatively recently, also been heavily fossil fuel based with coal dominating in some EU countries and gas and oil playing a larger role in North Africa. More recently, countries have been faced with this infrastructure reaching the end of its useful life and, with increasing demand; there is now a need to decide where the replacement and additional capacity will come from. As outlined previously, when combined with climate change concerns, this provides an opportunity to embrace renewables more broadly than has been done to date. Doing so will represent a massive change to a ‘business as usual’ approach. At an enabling level there will firstly need to be substantial changes to the transmission infrastructure across Europe and North Africa. Examples of these include the need to manage the grid on a greater geographical scale than before and the need to ensure that there is a better understanding and use of distributed generation. The need for a greater focus on dispatchability and demand management has already been touched on in the government policy section earlier in the roadmap. It will also have implications for the infrastructure that needs to be constructed and the need to scale-up the use of ‘smart’ technologies. At a generation level, one of the consequences will be the decommissioning of existing plant, but also the opportunity to replace this with renewable energy alternatives. This change in direction will need to be supported by further EU directives that disincentivise, for example, the building of new coal plants. Initially unpopular, once dispatchability has been rewarded and the appropriate renewable options with storage are in place, the concerns that currently exist around whether renewables will ever be able to successfully meet baseload requirements will abate. 4.7.2.
Key considerations
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Grid expansion: One of the pre-requisites for the 2050 vision is a major expansion and improvements to the existing HV grid. Long distance transmission will be vital to allow regional variations in generation and demand to be balanced out and to allow for the smoothing of intermittency from renewable sources of power. In addition, TSOs will need to consider interactions between existing country level grids in a more coherent manner than happens today. A body like ENTSO-E will need to oversee and drive this.
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Regional and long term planning: Linked to the long distance transmission point above, future infrastructure capacity and development planning will need to take place at more of a regional, rather than national level. The production of the components and the construction of the grid will in themselves also be major programmes of work and need to be carefully planned. Finally timing will also be critical as the grid is by many seen as the precursor for the large scale development of renewable generation sources. Rollout plans to develop the siting of new generation infrastructure will also need to be centrally planned.
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PricewaterhouseCoopers LLPP