Chapter three: 2010 to 2050: Today’s situation, tomorrow’s vision
3.1.
Electricity demand
3.1.1.
Demand: Today’s situation
The current power systems of Europe and North Africa are very different in most respects, mainly due to the large differences in economic development and the abundance of oil and gas in North Africa. European power consumption is 3300 TWh/a, whereas the five North African countries have a cumulated power demand of 180 TWh/a, of which almost 100 TWh/a is consumed and produced in Egypt3-4. North Africa, excluding Egypt, thus has a power consumption that is lower than the consumption in the Netherlands alone. Despite this, North African electricity demand has increased rapidly, almost doubling in size in the last 20 years. It continues to increase by up to 8% year, which makes it one of the fastest growing power markets in the world. This growth mainly reflects rapid population and economic growth, as well as social development and urbanisation5. European demand has steadily increased by 1-2% per year, and has consequentially grown 30% between 1990 and 20063-4, 6-7. It should be noted, however, that the European consumption growth rate of 1.5% in 2005 corresponded to an absolute increase of 50 TWh/a, whereas a North African growth of 8% per year meant an absolute growth of 15 TWh/a. European power demand is therefore increasing faster than North African in absolute numbers. 3.1.2.
Tomorrow’s vision: Greater demand but new efficiencies
In 2050, we envisage that the EU-NA power system will have a total electricity consumption of at least 5000 TWh/a, with approximately 25% of this demand in North Africa and the remainder in Europe. In total, only 60% (3000 TWh/a) of the system-wide electricity supply is produced in Europe, whereas 40% (2000 TWh/a) is produced in North Africa. Thus, a large fraction – 20% – of European electricity is produced in North Africa. The demand increase (+400 TWh/a compared to today3) in Europe originates mainly from a fuel switch to electricity through the introduction of electric cars, amongst others. The European economic growth roughly cancels the electricity efficiency gains achieved during the same period (assumed +2%/a for both). The North African demand in 2050 is some 700% higher than today4. The increase is mainly driven by population growth (100 million more citizens in 2050 than today) and strong economic growth, accompanied by only small increases in electricity efficiency. These figures lie within the range of most power system scenarios6-8, including scenarios which consider renewable power trade between EU countries9-10 or between EU and North Africa5, 11.
3.2.
Power grids
3.2.1.
Power grids: Today’s situation
The European and North African power grids are, with the exception of a few submarine HVDC cables, completely based on alternating current technologies. The European power system is split into five synchronous grids - the Nordic and British grids with a consumption of 400 TWh/a respectively; the Baltic and Irish grids with consumptions of around 30 TWh/a each; and the fifth grid which is the largest and covers all of continental Europe, with a consumption of 2600 TWh/a (including the non-EU members). This is the largest synchronously working machine in the world3, 12-13. The three western North African grids are synchronous with the continental European grid, whereas the Libyan and Egyptian grids are synchronous with Jordan, Lebanon and Syria14. All these blocks are interconnected with HVDC back-to-back facilities or HVDC subsea cables15. Currently, there are no significant HVDC connections on land in Europe, except some very limited back-to-back connections to asynchronous areas, mainly to the Russian grid. Two particular areas are worth looking at in more detail. These are grid congestion and grid expansion planning and regulatory constraints. Grid congestion The blocks comprise a number of different national or regional markets and control areas. The intra-European
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