105
Fish Supply and Demand
Table 6.6. Projected fish domestic demand in India: 2005-2015 (million kg) Year Scenario 1 Demand 1998 (base) 2005 2010 2015
Total demand Scenario 3 Scenario 5
5174 6040 6813 7741
5174 5899 6342 6719
Household Home away demand demand
5174 4945 4801 4671
3350 3911 4411 5012
1824 2129 2402 2729
Annual per capita demand (kg) at the national level 2005 5.6 5.3 4.6 3.6 2010 5.8 5.3 4.1 3.8 2015 6.2 5.4 3.7 4.0
2.0 2.1 2.2
Annual per capita demand 2005 15.1 2010 15.8 2015 16.7
5.3 5.5 5.9
(kg) for the fish eating population 14.6 12.3 9.8 14.7 11.1 10.2 14.5 10.1 10.8
Scenario 1: With existing growth in TFP Scenario 3: 50 per cent deceleration in existing TFP growth Scenario 5: Without growth in TFP
consumption of fish eating population would be about 15 kg in 2005, and 16.7 kg by 2015. In-home annual per consumption would increase from 9.8 kg by 2005 to 10.8 kg by 2015. Similarly, per capita annual home away demand would increase from 5.3 kg by 2005 to 5.9 kg by 2015. These estimates are consistent with the estimates of NSS survey for the year 1999-2000, which are 3.45 kg/capita at the national level and 9.8 kg/capita for the fish eating households. The IMC would continue to consolidate its share in total domestic fish consumption, as is evident from Figure 6.7, with its share becoming 34 per cent by 2015 from 27 per cent (in 2000). By 2015, the inland fish species would contribute more than 60 per cent to the total demand. The share of shrimp in the total demand would decline from 10 per cent (in 2000) to 6 per cent by 2015.