EAST BAY MARKET REPORT NOVEMBER 2023
K H R I S T A
J A R V I S
T E A M
ALAMO MARKET ANALYSIS
BLACKHAWK MARKET ANALYSIS
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES YEAR OVER YEAR
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES YEAR OVER YEAR
ACTIVE
NUMBER OF
LISTINGS
SALES
-22.7%
-9.68%
NUMBER OF
LISTINGS
SALES
50%
20%
45.5%
207%
3.19%
-2.19%
DAYS ON
DAYS ON SALES PRICE /
MARKET
MARKET
SALES PRICE /
APPROXIMATELIST MARKET VALUE PRICE
LIST PRICE
$9,500,000 RATIO
RATIO
SOLD AVERAGES $3,000,000
ACTIVE
SOLD AVERAGES November 2022
November 2023
$2,500,000
November 2023
November 2023
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,500,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $500,000
$0
$0 Median Sales Price
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Average Sales Price
DANVILLE MARKET ANALYSIS
DIABLO MARKET ANALYSIS
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES YEAR OVER YEAR
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES YEAR OVER YEAR* *aggregated data from September/October/November due to low market movement
ACTIVE
NUMBER OF
ACTIVE
NUMBER OF
LISTINGS
SALES
LISTINGS
SALES
-14.5%
-40%
-41.7%
5.71%
-92.59%
5.1%
DAYS ON MARKET
SALES PRICE /
$2,500,000
SALES PRICE /
MARKET
LIST PRICE RATIO
RATIO November 2022
6.53%
DAYS ON LIST PRICE
SOLD AVERAGES
0%
SOLD AVERAGES November 2023
$7,000,000
September/October/November 2022 September/October/November 2023
$6,000,000 $2,000,000 $5,000,000 $1,500,000
$4,000,000 $3,000,000
$1,000,000
$2,000,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $0
Median Sales Price
Average Sales Price
$0
Median Sales Price
Average Sales Price
SAN RAMON MARKET ANALYSIS SINGLE FAMILY HOMES YEAR OVER YEAR NUMBER OF
ACTIVE
SALES
LISTINGS
-31.67%
-33.3%
-41.18%
2.77%
DAYS ON
SALES PRICE /
MARKET
LIST PRICE
APPROXIMATE MARKET VALUE
$9,500,000
RATIO
SOLD AVERAGES $2,000,000
November 2022
November 2023
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
Median Sales Price
Average Sales Price
LOCAL MARKET
2024 HOUSING MARKET PREDICTIONS More homes will hit the market as homeowners accept that mortgage rates aren’t falling any time soon “Higher for longer” is the key refrain regarding mortgage rates looking ahead to the next year in housing. It’s becoming clear that high mortgage rates have some staying power. Expect more homeowners who locked in long-term payments when rates were near all-time lows to list their homes for sale, as they grow weary of waiting for the historically low rates of 2021 to return. More homes on the market — even the gradual increase Zillow economists expect — would be good news for home buyers, spreading demand and easing upward pressure on prices.
The new starter home will be a single-family rental Though some improvement for home buying affordability is expected in 2024, many households will continue to be priced out. Demand — and prices — for single-family rentals will continue to increase next year as families look for a more affordable option to enjoy amenities like a private backyard or a home that doesn’t share walls with neighbors. One possible path to more single-family rental inventory is homeowners deciding to turn their home into an investment property and rent it out rather than selling it when they move. The ultralow mortgage rates held by many existing homeowners make it more likely that this option would pencil out.
Traditional home buyers will compete with home flippers for homes that need a little TLC Typically the target of home flippers, homes that need a little work before they qualify for “dream home” status will have increased interest from buyers shopping for their primary residence. Inventory has been far below normal for a while, and though Zillow predicts more homes will hit the market in 2024, inventory will remain much lower than pre-pandemic norms. Faced with limited choices, buyers will be willing to overlook small flaws, such as an outdated bathroom or kitchen.
Source: Zillow
LOCAL MARKET TRENDS CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
Lake Tahoe Real Estate Calls for Swift Action For years, patience was the golden key to unlocking the best real estate opportunities in the idyllic haven of Lake Tahoe. However, the landscape has shifted since 2020, and the days of waiting for end-of-year bargains are swiftly fading. The message is clear: buyers who procrastinate will be left disappointed. Unlike the past, houses and condos priced near fair market value are attracting a barrage of weekly showings, some even garnering multiple offers. The looming hesitancy tied to high mortgage rates is expected to dissipate, with the Federal Reserve signaling rate drops in 2024, especially as we enter an election year. Once rates fall, the negotiating leverage of buyers may dwindle, potentially reigniting the frenzied pace witnessed during the pandemic real estate boom. Steady prices and an influx of informed buyers characterize the present scenario. With historically low inventory levels, buyers must act swiftly, seizing opportunities for optimal sale prices and seller concessions and potentially refinancing later. The age-old strategy of waiting until spring or summer for a purchase appears unwise this year. Sellers are likely to list at a premium, anticipating a whole summer for their properties to sell. More buyers, attracted by lower rates, will enter the market, making it competitive. Procrastinating buyers might discover that the dream property they hoped to snag after winter is no longer available, especially as some sellers stand firm on their asking prices, foreseeing impending rate drops. For those hoping to return in the summer to write an offer, disappointment may loom. The pent-up demand from urban escapees is still palpable, making it unlikely that the desired property will linger until snow melts and beaches open. While new listings will continue to trickle in until April, the winter months are unlikely to witness a surge in available properties. As summer approaches, although new listings may increase, they tend to move swiftly. The winning strategy for buyers in 2024 is decisiveness. Procrastination is a risky game in a market where opportunities are swiftly snatched. Enlist the support of a seasoned local agent who understands the distinct customs, rules, and nuances of each Lake Tahoe community. An experienced agent can provide comparable sales information and expertly guide buyers through negotiations, ensuring the best possible deal. Source: Tahoe Daily Tribune
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