4.15 General Election Incheon Yeonsu-gu 2nd District Statistical Analysis OKN Correspondent Nov 20, 2020 This report is a statistical analysis report on the results of the general elections held on April 15, 2020, based on data released by the Korea National Election Commission. Among the districts, we analyzed Incheon Yeonsu-gu 2nd district. Analysis of the national voting registration status
April 15 National Voting Registration Status 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 7시
8시
9시
10 시
11 시
12 시
13 시
14 시
15 시
16 시
17 시
18 시
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
2.20%
2.90%
2.90%
3.40%
3.90%
3.90%
30.50%
3.30%
3.50%
3.20%
2.90%
3.60%
According to the national voting registration status on April 15th, the registration rate is usually 2.2% to 3.9% per hour. However, it is seen that it increased sharply to 30.5% at 13:00. It can be assumed that the early voting ballot was registered on the computer at this time. The voter turnout rate increased sharply, but the rate of vote earned did not.
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7:00 2.20%
8:00
9:00
5.10%
8.00%
10:00 11.40 %
11:00 15.30%
12:00
13:00
19.20 %
14:00
49.70 %
15:00
53.00 %
16:00
56.50 %
17:00
18:00
62.60 %
59.70%
66.20%
It shows that the voter registration rate has increased sharply at 13:00. No sudden rise is observed at other times. The NEC is required to move early voting ballots to the vote counting station by 18:00 on the same day. The Public Official Election Act stipulates that postal ballot boxes and early voting boxes should be moved to the vote counting station after 6 p.m. on election day. However, early voting registration had already been created on the computer at 1 p.m. before the early voting ballots arrived at the vote counting station. There is only a simple counting process at the vote counting station, but there is no task of comparing the votes to the voter list, and there is no safety device to prevent fake votes or double votes at the vote counting station.
Public Office Election Act [Enforcement 2020.3.25] [Act No. 17127, March 25, 2020, partially amended] Article 176 (Reception of early voting, home voting, shipboard voting and vote counting<Revised 2014.1.17>) 1. When receiving early voting, home voting, and shipboard voting sent by mail, the Gu/Si/Gun Election Commission shall immediately drop and store them in the mail ballot box under the participation of the party recommending committee member of the Gu/Si/Gun Election Commission. <Revised August 4, 2005, January 17, 2014> 2. When the Gu/Si/Gun Election Commission takes over an early voting ballot drop box pursuant to Article 158 (6-2), they shall check the sealing status of the ballot drop box under the participation of the party recommendation committee of the relevant Gu/Si/Gun Election Commission and keep it. <New January 17, 2014> 3. The mail ballot drop box under paragraph (1) and the early voting ballot drop box under paragraph (2) may be moved to the counting office after 6 p.m. on the election day (8 p.m. in the case of by-elections, etc.) under the attendance of the ballot-counting observers, and may be counted in advance separately from the ballot in the general ballot drop box. <Amended on April 30, 1998, March 12, 2004, and January 7, 2014> Incheon Yeonsu-gu eul opposition candidate Margin analysis
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2
3
Oppositio n party
677
62 0
681
2,199
1,121
7,292
22,383
4,69 6
2,531
980
618
716
1916
934
8996
23628
4242
2391
883
2
35
283
45 4
140
97
Ruling party Margin
54 4 133
4
5
187
6
7
- 1,704
- 1,245
Total
8
9
10
11
13
14
372
1,117
4,64 6
587
300
61 7
10
72
597
12
500
6434 1,78 8
1273
The National Election Commission did not disclose any time-based public vote count status data. We monitored the KBS broadcasting in real time and looked at the vote counting status. The graph above is the data of Yeonsu-gu 2nd district, Incheon.
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In terms of the difference in the number of votes earned by time, above the green line 0 is where the opposition party won more votes, and below the green line 0 is where the ruling party won more votes. It can be seen that the opposition party was ahead in the early stages, but a large number of votes came out to the ruling party in the 6 to 7-hour interval after the vote count began. A large number of votes for the ruling party came out again in the last 14-hour interval. The rest of the section shows that the difference in the number of votes cast over time is usually less than 500 votes. However, 1,740 votes were cast in the 6:00 interval and 1,245 in the 7:00 interval became in favor of the ruling party. The strange thing is that the opposition party was again ahead of 1,273 votes in the 8:00-13:00 interval, but 1,788 votes appeared in the last section of the 14:00 interval. In the 6, 7, and 14-hour interval alone, 4,737 votes were cast for the ruling Democratic Party. However, since the total number of manipulated votes was divided by time and absorbed according to the counting situation, this number of 4,737 votes is not the total number of manipulated votes, but only the number of votes dedicated to the ruling party. The total margin in the number of votes is 2,893.
Cumulative Margin Trend by Time 4,000 2,000 -
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000) 사전
당일
(Blue line: Early voting, Red line: Election day voting) If you calculate the value of the percentage of votes cast for the opposition party minus the percentage of votes cast for the ruling party by time, separating the early and election day, you will see the graph shown above. It is easy to see that the opposition party won more votes than the ruling party on election day. But in early voting, the ruling party won more votes than the opposition party. Analysis of the early and election day voting in Incheon Yeonsu-gu 2nd district showed 4,737 votes were cast for the ruling Democratic Party only at 6:00, 7:00, and 14:00 intervals. According to the ratio of early and election day, one out of 1.86 people who voted for the opposition party on election day voted for the ruling party in early voting. Of course, it is a different group, but it is normal that the overall trend should be the same in the same election. This can be very abnormal.
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DR. SHIVA Model Analysis
To find out how the ruling party received all the votes, we looked at the trend of votes cast in each polling station in the Incheon Yeonsu-gu 2nd district. This is an application of the model method of Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai of MIT in the United States. The X-axis is the value of voting for the candidate and the party, and the Y-axis is the value of voting for the candidate and the other party minus the percentage of voting for the candidate and the party. As to show the candidate's performance, we looked at whether the political party was more famous, or if the candidate was more famous in the area. If it is higher than the red line 0, both the person who voted for the party and the person who voted for the other party chose the candidate. If it is less than 0, the person chose the party but did not choose the candidate. Out of a total of 53 polling places, it is observed where the person who voted for the party did not vote for the candidate in only 3 polling stations which are Okryeon 1-dong, Songdo 1-dong, and Songdo 2-dong (three dots under the red line). In this area, it is more likely to vote for the opposition party as the proportional representation party and the Democratic party candidates as for candidates. In the 6, 7 and 14 intervals shown earlier, the section where the Democratic Party of Korea's earned all the votes can be inferred as Okryeon 1-dong, Songdo 1-dong, Songdo 2-dong, which has a different trend from the local trend. Looking at the yellow average line, one can see that the candidate receives upward support. In other words, the data is very unusual that one receives all the votes suddenly. We looked for any abnormalities in early voting as shown below in case that abnormal data was found. Analysis of early voting registration status
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Date 04/ 10 04/ 11
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
0.41%
0.45%
0.65%
1.01%
0.51%
0.60%
0.79%
1.12%
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
1.20%
1.18%
1.08%
1.21%
1.30%
1.25%
1.19%
1.21%
1.30%
1.34%
1.28%
1.37%
1.50%
1.51%
1.49%
1.74%
Looking at the status of early voting registered on April 10 and April 11, one can observe that the number of early voting registered on April 11 was higher than April 10 over all time. In general, if the trend is the same, the number of registrations per hour may be high but may be low. It is a strange phenomenon that at all times, the voters cast more votes than the day before. The difference between the two days is as follows.
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
0.10%
0.15%
0.14%
0.11%
0.10%
0.16%
0.20%
0.16%
0.20%
0.26%
0.30%
0.53%
It can be seen that the turnout rate on April 11 reached a total of 2.41% more than April 10. The figure is slightly higher than the value, which that the ruling party earned 2.27% more votes than 5
the opposition party. To check for any abnormalities in this data, we selected one district and verified the number of registered votes for both April 10 and 11. Yeonsu-gu
Number of registered votes on the 1st day
Number of registered votes on the 2nd day
Margin
7:00
1,178
1,764
586
8:00
1,216
2,101
885
9:00
1,665
2,564
899
10:00
2,674
3,357
683
11:00
3,258
3,651
393
12:00
3,170
3,783
613
13:00
3,199
3,776
577
14:00
3,375
4,102
727
15:00
3,515
4,286
771
16:00
3,495
4,390
895
17:00
3,406
4,377
971
18:00
4,045
6,287
2,242
Total
10,242
It shows that Yeonsu-gu 2nd district has 10,242 more votes registered on the second day than on the first day. Let's check that these 10,242 votes are normal ballots.
Early voting
Ruling party
22,231
48.7%
30,575
38.1%
Opposition party
15,980
35.0%
33,933
42.3%
Margin
6,251
Rate of votes cast
Election day
- 3,358
Rate of votes cast
Total 52,806 49,913 2,893
Rate of votes cast 41.93% 39.63% 2.27%
On election day, the opposition party was winning with 3,358 more votes than the ruling party. However, in the early voting, which was counted at dawn, the ruling party turned around by winning 6,251 more votes than the opposition, having a total of 2,893 votes and 2.27% ahead. If 10,242 votes were manipulated during early voting, the ruling party would have 15,888 votes (22,231-10,242+3,899) and the opposition party would have 20,308 votes (159,980-0+4,328) if the distribution is calculated again based on the rate of votes cast on election day. The ruling party won 6,343 votes (22,231-15,888), while the opposition party lost 4,328 votes (15,980-20,308). Out of a total of 53 polling stations in Yeonsu-gu, Incheon, only three polling stations that are in Okryeon 1-dong, Songdo 1-dong and Songdo 2-dong showed that proportional parties voted for the opposition party and the Democratic Party's candidates. The ruling party won 6,343 more votes, while the opposition party lost 4,328 votes. Conclusion
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The Public Official Election Act stipulates that postal ballot boxes and early voting boxes should be moved to the vote counting station after 6 p.m. on election day. However, early voting registration had already been made on the computer at 1 p.m. before the early voting ballots arrived at the vote counting station. There is only a simple counting process at the vote counting station, but there is no task of comparing the votes to the voter list, and there is no safety device to prevent fake votes or double votes at the vote counting station. Analysis of the early and election day voting in Incheon Yeonsu-gu 2nd district showed 4,737 votes were cast for the ruling Democratic Party only at 6:00, 7:00, and 14:00 intervals. According to the ratio of early and election day, one out of 1.86 people who voted for the opposition party on election day voted for the ruling party in early voting. Of course, it is a different group, but it is normal that the overall trend should be the same in the same election. This can be very abnormal. Out of a total of 53 polling stations in Yeonsu-gu, Incheon, only three polling stations, which are in Okryeon 1-dong, Songdo 1-dong and Songdo 2-dong, showed that proportional parties voted for the opposition party and the Democratic Party's candidates. The ruling party won 6,343 more votes, while the opposition party lost 4,328 votes.
Conclusion, in Incheon Yeonsu-gu 2nd district, about 10,000 early votes were manipulated.
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