RISK FORECAST 2019 Saud regime and lack of free speech. Following his murder on the 2nd October in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, there have been widespread allegations that Saudi Arabia carried out the assassination with Prince Mohammed at least having knowledge of the plan (4). This has been followed by US Senators voting to blame the Prince for the murder of Khashoggi and insisting that the Kingdom hold accountable those responsible. Furthermore, under the War Powers Act, the US Senate voted to end US backing for the Saudiled war on Yemen in response to the journalist’s murder (3). Whilst this vote is non-binding, and with Trump committing to veto any action that threatens US involvement, it does signal the lack of unconditional support for the Al Saud dynasty. Additionally, UK foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt flew to Riyadh to request Prince Mohammed cooperates more fully with the Turkish investigation of the murder – deeming it “unacceptable that the full circumstances behind the murder still remain unclear” (5). However, it so far appears that the murder of Khashoggi has only impacted lower levels of government and interest groups. In the UK, diplomats and Ministry of Defence officials met with their Saudi counterparts to finalise negotiations to sell more Typhoon jets to Riyadh (6). Furthermore, US President Donald Trump claimed in early December that he will not take strong action against Saudi Arabia or Prince Mohammed for the murder and dismemberment of Khashoggi (7).
A conditional relationship to appease domestic pressure recommended As described by Adam Schiff, Democratic Representative of California, “Trump and his family have built overwhelming reliance on the Crown Prince (Prince Mohammed) that the relationship is now, in their view, “too big to fail” (8). To some degree, this statement is true since several Western governments rely on oil and the financial incentives of military contracts. In order to move forward in the wake of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, it might be necessary to separate economic interests and the political practices of Prince Mohammed in their dealings with Saudi Arabia in an effort to appease domestic pressures. This would see the valuable and necessary oil Saudi Arabia produces to be considered separately from the actions of the dynasty including suppression of free speech and public capital punishments – many of which challenge central tenets of the liberal order. However, this move would be highly challenging to effectively execute given Saudi Arabia’s efforts to use their oil wealth to increase the influence of Islam and particularly the Saud monarchy’s ultra-conservative version (1).
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